Breaking down the Amateur Scout staff

Ziostilon

Registered User
Feb 14, 2009
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I don't really think the Kings drafting has been particularly good. I mean, anyone could have taken Doughty at 2nd overall, and their other lottery picks (Hickey? B. Schenn with OEL and Kadri the next 2 picks?) don't look good in hindsight either.

don't focus on the top six forwards and top 4 dman

look at the depth. Toffoli, Vey, Pearson, Dwight King, Nolan, Loktionov, Voynov, Bud Holloway, Weal, Kozun, Forbort, Martin Jones, Muzzin, Martinez, Zatkoff
 

604

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Nov 1, 2011
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Pre-draft lists are a terrible way to benchmark IMO. What makes Bob Mackenzie's polled scouts better than ours?

We see it every year, Jordan Schroeder is a great example of a player who "fell" to 22, way down from the pre-draft rankings, and 4 years later it looks like the pre-drafts were way off.

Pre-draft helps "fans" analyze their teams picks. Teams have enough data, and enough resources to track the players down the line. The old adage is still true, it takes about 5 years to rate a draft class.

I'd personally look to try and poach some more good area scouts from good drafting teams like Ottawa.

Do you know what benchmarking is?

You compare your results to another person in a similar situation.

If you do worse, you need to improve, if you do better, then you are better.

So by comparing our list to other pre-draft list, we know who we would pick and who they would pick...then we see how things turn out over time by comparing the players we would end up with if we used their list to the guys we actually eneded up with. If the guys we would pick turn out better, we benchmark well, if the guys they would've picked do better, then we benchmark poorly.

To make any conclusions about a draft immediately after the draft is basically just a guess.

--------------------------

Here's a comparison:
Actual - Kesler, Schneider, Bourdon, Grabner, White, Hodgson, Schroeder, Jensen, Gaunce

ISS - ???, Graham, Koipitar, Vasyunov, Mayorov, Hodgson, Schroeder, Grimaldi, Gaune
TSN - Glazachev, Bolland, Kopitar, Sanguinetti, Petrecki, Hodgson, Schroeder, Saad, Gaunce
CSS - Fridsche, Bolland, Kopitar, Stewart, Perron, Myers, Schroeder, Rattie, Gaunce (Note, CSS only does NA and Intl. so I picked the NA or Intl. based on who was higher on TSN's list to try and make it fair)
Redline - A. Stewart, Green, Skille, Williams, Katic, Petrov, Schroeder, Khokhlachev, Finn

Based on this comparison, I'd probably rank the lists as follows:
1. CSS
2. TSN
3. Canucks
4. ISS (really depends on who they get in 2003...they didn't exist I don't think)
5. Redline

I think that our paid scouts should be able to beat free services and public lists and it shouldn't be close which means we do need to improve, that being said, I think we stayed pretty close to the board on most of our recent picks except with Horvat last year (the wide majority would have picked Nichuskin) so a GM/scout should either make their name, or be fired based on that pick.

It should be noted that we have gone to the OHL or US 9 times in the last 11 years for our 1st pick (including the above + Horvat and McNally).

P.S. Doing this has gotten me reading some scouting reports...a lot of reports compare Jeff Carter to Joe Thornton (because both played in the Soo)...their games are really nothing alike at all.
 
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VanillaCoke

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Oct 30, 2013
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Reading this thread is depressing. The sheer number of picks wasted that could be helping now is abhorrent.
 

MISC*

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Not a single player drafted by Mike Gillis playing for us right now.

Think about that.
 

Bleach Clean

Registered User
Aug 9, 2006
26,997
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Do you know what benchmarking is?

You compare your results to another person in a similar situation.

If you do worse, you need to improve, if you do better, then you are better.

So by comparing our list to other pre-draft list, we know who we would pick and who they would pick...then we see how things turn out over time by comparing the players we would end up with if we used their list to the guys we actually eneded up with. If the guys we would pick turn out better, we benchmark well, if the guys they would've picked do better, then we benchmark poorly.

To make any conclusions about a draft immediately after the draft is basically just a guess.

--------------------------

Here's a comparison:
Actual - Kesler, Schneider, Bourdon, Grabner, White, Hodgson, Schroeder, Jensen, Gaunce

ISS - ???, Graham, Koipitar, Vasyunov, Mayorov, Hodgson, Schroeder, Grimaldi, Gaune
TSN - Glazachev, Bolland, Kopitar, Sanguinetti, Petrecki, Hodgson, Schroeder, Saad, Gaunce
CSS - Fridsche, Bolland, Kopitar, Stewart, Perron, Myers, Schroeder, Rattie, Gaunce (Note, CSS only does NA and Intl. so I picked the NA or Intl. based on who was higher on TSN's list to try and make it fair)
Redline - A. Stewart, Green, Skille, Williams, Katic, Petrov, Schroeder, Khokhlachev, Finn

Based on this comparison, I'd probably rank the lists as follows:
1. CSS
2. TSN
3. Canucks
4. ISS (really depends on who they get in 2003...they didn't exist I don't think)
5. Redline

I think that our paid scouts should be able to beat free services and public lists and it shouldn't be close which means we do need to improve, that being said, I think we stayed pretty close to the board on most of our recent picks except with Horvat last year (the wide majority would have picked Nichuskin) so a GM/scout should either make their name, or be fired based on that pick.

It should be noted that we have gone to the OHL or US 9 times in the last 11 years for our 1st pick (including the above + Horvat and McNally).

P.S. Doing this has gotten me reading some scouting reports...a lot of reports compare Jeff Carter to Joe Thornton (because both played in the Soo)...their games are really nothing alike at all.



Good breakdown. I wonder if a Scout has put his rep on the line for the Horvat/Nichushkin selection. It would be interesting to know if such a thing were true.

That CSS list is outstanding. It loses the team Kesler, but makes up for it with Kopitar++. The TSN one is pretty good too.

The draft has been reviewed many times over. It doesn't help that Gillis is ultra-patient with his picks, as he will keep them out of the NHL when some teams will advance their own picks quicker, but I guess we'll see if it pays off.

I like what LA is doing now with Vey, Pearson, Toffoli and Zykov on the way. Canucks have to keep pace here because LA, SJ and ANA seem pretty good at developing talent.
 

F A N

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Aug 12, 2005
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My point remains.

It can remain but it's either wrong or worthless or both. Kassian is on the team and he was traded for a drafted player who is in the NHL. Schroeder is on the team and had he not been injured he would most likely have been in the lineup most nights. For what it's worth, Detroit only has Tatar playing for them in the same timespan.
 

Megaterio Llamas

el rey del mambo
Oct 29, 2011
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North Shore
Dan Palango scouted Corrado. Dave Gagner scouted Tanev. I think Hansen was also a Gradin find.

Thanks for this info. I have been impressed by our Ontario area scouting for the past three drafts. Our Quebec scouting, conversely, has been abysmal and we should avoid the Q at all costs. Western Canada has largely been avoided while Sweden, a former strength, is now a complete waste of effort. We ought to draft almost exclusively out of Ontario. It works.
 

604

Registered User
Nov 1, 2011
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Thanks for this info. I have been impressed by our Ontario area scouting for the past three drafts. Our Quebec scouting, conversely, has been abysmal and we should avoid the Q at all costs. Western Canada has largely been avoided while Sweden, a former strength, is now a complete waste of effort. We ought to draft almost exclusively out of Ontario. It works.

Tough to rag on Sweden given the picks they've had to work with.

I agree that picking out of Ontario has worked for us but avoiding a region in the 1st round is suicide. Based on what I've seen, we should just go with the consensus in the 1st round (i.e. just use the CSS or Bob Mackenzie's list).
 

Tank

Registered User
May 9, 2012
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Langley
Interesting read on the other experts opinions - all I can say after looking at the post drafts anaysis is - boy we would be awfully tough to beat if we had Hank, Kopitar, Kess and santorelli down the middle - RIP Luc but if only.
 

Hansen

tyler motte simp
Oct 12, 2011
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Interesting read on the other experts opinions - all I can say after looking at the post drafts anaysis is - boy we would be awfully tough to beat if we had Hank, Kopitar, Kess and santorelli down the middle - RIP Luc but if only.

Who knows what could have happened, we might have ended up with a 45pt top pairing dman in Luc. Hindsight is 20/20.
 

canucksfan

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Mar 16, 2002
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Who knows what could have happened, we might have ended up with a 45pt top pairing dman in Luc. Hindsight is 20/20.

I don't think he would have. He only had 2 points in 36 NHL games. Wasn't that great of a scorer in the high scoring Q. He had a great shot from the point but wasn't a true offensive defenseman but who knows.
 

Ziostilon

Registered User
Feb 14, 2009
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you don't have to avoid the QMJHL

i think this organization has enough money to add more scouts if needed

it comes down to the leadership of the scouting department. How they use the data from all the scouts. How they analyse it.
didn't someone have an article couple pages back saying that the Canucks would have every scout make their case for the players that they were scouting

That's a terrible scouting system

It's like me watching the KHL and saying Nigel Dawes is at the same level as Mike Cammalleri
 

Bure All Day

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Mar 29, 2012
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Vancouver
It can remain but it's either wrong or worthless or both. Kassian is on the team and he was traded for a drafted player who is in the NHL. Schroeder is on the team and had he not been injured he would most likely have been in the lineup most nights. For what it's worth, Detroit only has Tatar playing for them in the same timespan.

Detroits drafting has **** the bed lately, but still better than ours
 

Ziostilon

Registered User
Feb 14, 2009
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How much does Gillis rely on scouts for Kassian & Horvat trades

Especially in the Kassian trade. Canucks weren't picking that high that year.

Mike Gillis probably barely or even never saw him play.

He has to highly rely on his scouting staff for an opinion.

Remember these scouts and this scouting philosophy brought you the likes of Alex Grenier and Alex Mallet.

So if the scout is telling the GM you're getting the next Cam Neely in Kassian and the next Patrice Bergeron in Horvat

But in reality it's actually the next Steve Bernier and Kyle Brodziak
 

tc 23

#GaunceForGM
Dec 11, 2012
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With all GMs, Gillis relies heavily on his scouting staff for drafting and player transactions but he does see players too. In a recent video, it was said that Gillis saw Horvat live at a game (I don't recall which) prior to the draft.
 

timw33

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Gillis personally scouted Horvat after the game in Boston last year when he had 1G 1A against the Spitfires.
 

Tanevian*

Guest
Especially in the Kassian trade. Canucks weren't picking that high that year.

Mike Gillis probably barely or even never saw him play.

He has to highly rely on his scouting staff for an opinion.

Remember these scouts and this scouting philosophy brought you the likes of Alex Grenier and Alex Mallet.

So if the scout is telling the GM you're getting the next Cam Neely in Kassian and the next Patrice Bergeron in Horvat

But in reality it's actually the next Steve Bernier and Kyle Brodziak

This is a strong argument that really can't be refuted. And we all know that the other 29 GMs only hit home runs.
 

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