Player Discussion Brandon Sutter. Defensive Center. One More Year Remaining at $4.375 AAV (w/ M-NTC).

[vanuck]

I think you're neglecting zone starts, linemates, competition. If you subscribe to the athletic, there is an article in there that confirm Gaudette gets one if most sheltered mins in the nhl. I think this more than makes up for the p60. The fact remains Sutter has a better ppg. Because he gets such sheltered mins, all those analytics doesn't mean much or anything.

Are you for Real? You're debating Gaudette is better defensively? Lol, even all the non Sutter fans out there will not debate Gaudette is better defensively than Sutter. Pretend you were coach, if you had to pick Gaudette or Sutter to be on the PK or the last min of the game. Your answer will be Sutter, don't deny that. What a silly debate.

Sure Gaudette did well on the 2nd pp unit. Sutter does well on the pk, I think that makes for it.

When the game got to another level. Gaudette could handle it and wad a healthy scratch and pointless in playoffs. Gaudette couldn't even outscored Beagle.

Like I said, if you want to get rid of Sutter because of cap and he always injured. Fair enough, no argument here. As of righy now Sutter is still the better player except on the pp.

Zone starts (just like faceoffs) and competition don't correlate with production/possession the way you think it does - no coach in the league has full control over who his centres match up with on the ice as they lose last change on road games. OTOH, sure, linemates have an impact on players' production as well as underlying numbers but look at Gaudette's and Sutter's two most common linemates over the last 2 years... for both it's Roussel and Virtanen. The two D-men they've both played with the most over that span are Edler and Stecher. So how do teammates factor in here for P/60? And even if it does play a role, how do you know it's enough to make up for the difference without giving anything other than a subjective opinion?

If Sutter is truly better defensively why is it that the Canucks give up more shot attempts, shots, expected goals and actual goals with Sutter on the ice? Why does it not show up in the stats? Sutter's not being used as a matchup guy (not that it'd be relevant anyway), so what's his excuse?

I ask you one more time: what evidence do you have to support your assertion that Sutter produces superior defensive results? (other than being decent on the PK which doesn't justify being worse at 5v5... this is literally the Jay Beagle Fallacy all over again)

As to the playoffs... let's not use tiny sample sizes to inform your arguments. This is how bad decisions are made - we can do better than that.

 

[Hit the post]

As to the playoffs... let's not use tiny sample sizes to inform your arguments. This is how bad decisions are made - we can do better than that.

Hey that's way Frankie Corrado was a surefire top 4 D because of the NHL post-season he had in essentially his rookie year!

 

[nowhereman]

A 3C on this roster has to absorb a lot of dzone starts and tough minutes in general. Gaudette is bad at both of those things. Faceoffs - not good. Defensive boardwork - weak, and that's being generous. Defensive awareness - below average. And doesn't PK either.

I understand that people are not happy with Sutter, but sometimes the grass is not greener on the other side. What we need is an upgrade in that position, not a round peg square hole scenario with a player like Gaudette who is clearly tracking as a middle 6 winger.

I agree with this. Many seem to look at Gaudette as though we can expect significant progression from him akin to a 19-20 year old player. Gaudette is 24 (in a month); he's not going to get that much stronger or more defensively aware than he is now. If we can expect to see progress anywhere, it's in his offensive numbers. I say move him to the wing or use him as leverage to try and accumulate a much-needed piece.

I think the Canucks really need to focus on shoring up their 3rd line center spot, along with overhauling the blueline, as I think the 3rd line center is the linch pin to your bottom six. Putting Gaudette there seems like putting a round peg into a square hole, particularly if you're going to play him with guys who generate such little offense. On the other hand, Sutter is just so disappointing in every facet of the game and is a shadow of his former self. I think rebuilding the bottom six starts down the middle and it starts with getting rid of Sutter.

 

[VanJack]

Why the debate about Brandon Sutter? He's only got one year left on his contract in what could still be a shortened season. If the Canucks could find a deal for him in the next couple of months that made sense, they'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat.

But whatever happens, there's not a chance in the world the Canucks re-sign him when he becomes a UFA. For a team with pretensions of winning a Cup, he's the kind of veteran player you simply have to move on from.

So if Gaudette flops, they would probably find somebody off the UFA list making the league minimum who would bring as much to the table.

 

[Canucks1096]

Zone starts (just like faceoffs) and competition don't correlate with production/possession the way you think it does - no coach in the league has full control over who his centres match up with on the ice as they lose last change on road games. OTOH, sure, linemates have an impact on players' production as well as underlying numbers but look at Gaudette's and Sutter's two most common linemates over the last 2 years... for both it's Roussel and Virtanen. The two D-men they've both played with the most over that span are Edler and Stecher. So how do teammates factor in here for P/60? And even if it does play a role, how do you know it's enough to make up for the difference without giving anything other than a subjective opinion?

If Sutter is truly better defensively why is it that the Canucks give up more shot attempts, shots, expected goals and actual goals with Sutter on the ice? Why does it not show up in the stats? Sutter's not being used as a matchup guy (not that it'd be relevant anyway), so what's his excuse?

I ask you one more time: what evidence do you have to support your assertion that Sutter produces superior defensive results? (other than being decent on the PK which doesn't justify being worse at 5v5... this is literally the Jay Beagle Fallacy all over again)

As to the playoffs... let's not use tiny sample sizes to inform your arguments. This is how bad decisions are made - we can do better than that.

You're kind of cherry picking a little. Yes Rousell and Virtanen were the most frequent linemates for both Sutter and Gaudette. However that's only about 30% of the total 5 on 5 ice time. Sutter 3rd to 6th most played with forwards were Motte, Beagle, Levio and Eriksson. Gaudette was Leivo Granlund, Boeser and Pearson. All where between 100 to 200 mins so it's not a tiny sample size. Yes Gaudette did get better linemates overall. Yet the last 2 seasons including playoffs, Gaudette can't get a higher ppg than Sutter.

Sure we can, it's not subjective. The natural stat trick show the GF and GA and Corsi with each player. The top 6 forwards that Sutter played the most with had the best Corsi and GF was with Virtanen Rousell Leivo. So I thunk we can both agree are better than Erksson Motte Beagle. Yes this proves Sutter plays with better linemates can produce more offensively

I agree Zone starts and faceoffs it doesn't make a hugh impact but definitely make some impact. You can't just disregard that. Gaudette got 60% off zone starts and Sutter 30%. You think both players put up same results if the situation was reversed? Highly unlikely

Regardless of what you're saying it doesn't change the fact that Gaudette gets sheltered mins, he plays one of the easiest competition. If your debating that this doesn't matter. Please stop. Sutter got easier mins than last season. Not a coincidence that his analytics improved a little as well. Yes quality or competition does matter.

Sutter this year around 500 mins 5 on 5 and had 20 GA and Gaudette round 600 mins and 31 GA. If we do the Math, Gaudette GA is higher. There is reason why Green couldn't trust Gaudette at the start of the playoffs and has to move Sutter back to center.

I see a pattern here, if the stat sucks for Gaudette, that stat doesn't matter. Regardless of it is a small sample size. The sample size we do have for the playoffs was Gaudette was terrible in the playoffs.

You really need to take off your I love Gaudette glasses and dig a little deeper. He just not a very good hockey player.

 

[vanuck]

You're kind of cherry picking a little. Yes Rousell and Virtanen were the most frequent linemates for both Sutter and Gaudette. However that's only about 30% of the total 5 on 5 ice time. Sutter 3rd to 6th most played with forwards were Motte, Beagle, Levio and Eriksson. Gaudette was Leivo Granlund, Boeser and Pearson. All where between 100 to 200 mins so it's not a tiny sample size. Yes Gaudette did get better linemates overall. Yet the last 2 seasons including playoffs, Gaudette can't get a higher ppg than Sutter.

Sure we can, it's not subjective. The natural stat trick show the GF and GA and Corsi with each player. The top 6 forwards that Sutter played the most with had the best Corsi and GF was with Virtanen Rousell Leivo. So I thunk we can both agree are better than Erksson Motte Beagle. Yes this proves Sutter plays with better linemates can produce more offensively

Sure, both Sutter and Gaudette have played with other guys as well but the fact remains that Roussel and JV are still their most common linemates by far thus the biggest impact. Thing is even if you want to say that Motte/Beagle/Eriksson etc. were dragging Sutter down, his P/60 over the last 2 years (70 games) was...

1.25.

That's right in line with most of the other years in his career where he played a majority of the season - like 2010-11, 2011-12, 2014-15, 2016-17 and 2017-18. In fact, not including the last 2 years, his P/60 with many different linemates on multiple teams over 657 games is... wait for it...

1.24.

Would it be wise to think that he'd magically be a different producer given at most an extra maybe 8-16 games' worth of TOI (100-200 mins) with Roussel/JV? I think not. By this point, at age 31 Sutter is what he is - a 1.25 P/60 player despite having skated alongside a ton of different guys over his career.

I agree Zone starts and faceoffs it doesn't make a hugh impact but definitely make some impact. You can't just disregard that. Gaudette got 60% off zone starts and Sutter 30%. You think both players put up same results if the situation was reversed? Highly unlikely

Regardless of what you're saying it doesn't change the fact that Gaudette gets sheltered mins, he plays one of the easiest competition. If your debating that this doesn't matter. Please stop. Sutter got easier mins than last season. Not a coincidence that his analytics improved a little as well. Yes quality or competition does matter.

Zone starts have almost negligible impact - most players' shifts start on-the-fly which makes intuitive sense and further reduces their impact, on top of all the research that has been done on this over the years by analytics guys like David Johnson and Micah McCurdy. Likewise with QoC which, as I've already said, evens out due to half of all games being on the road and thus coaches losing control of last change. Again, there's been research done regarding this and I encourage you to look it up.

Speaking of cherry-picking...

Sutter this year around 500 mins 5 on 5 and had 20 GA and Gaudette round 600 mins and 31 GA. If we do the Math, Gaudette GA is higher. There is reason why Green couldn't trust Gaudette at the start of the playoffs and has to move Sutter back to center.

I see a pattern here, if the stat sucks for Gaudette, that stat doesn't matter. Regardless of it is a small sample size. The sample size we do have for the playoffs was Gaudette was terrible in the playoffs.

What stat have I omitted?

You recognize that playoff hockey is a limited sample of data, yet proceed to use it anyway... you really don't understand the issue of small sample size do you?

You really need to take off your I love Gaudette glasses and dig a little deeper. He just not a very good hockey player.

I support the team having better, more effective players regardless of who they are, so your accusing me of having some sort of bias towards Gaudette is unwarranted and frankly quite insulting.

 

[Canucks1096]

Sure, both Sutter and Gaudette have played with other guys as well but the fact remains that Roussel and JV are still their most common linemates by far thus the biggest impact. Thing is even if you want to say that Motte/Beagle/Eriksson etc. were dragging Sutter down, his P/60 over the last 2 years (70 games) was...

1.25.

That's right in line with most of the other years in his career where he played a majority of the season - like 2010-11, 2011-12, 2014-15, 2016-17 and 2017-18. In fact, not including the last 2 years, his P/60 with many different linemates on multiple teams over 657 games is... wait for it...

1.24.

Would it be wise to think that he'd magically be a different producer given at most an extra maybe 8-16 games' worth of TOI (100-200 mins) with Roussel/JV? I think not. By this point, at age 31 Sutter is what he is - a 1.25 P/60 player despite having skated alongside a ton of different guys over his career.



Zone starts have almost negligible impact - most players' shifts start on-the-fly which makes intuitive sense and further reduces their impact, on top of all the research that has been done on this over the years by analytics guys like David Johnson and Micah McCurdy. Likewise with QoC which, as I've already said, evens out due to half of all games being on the road and thus coaches losing control of last change. Again, there's been research done regarding this and I encourage you to look it up.

Speaking of cherry-picking...


What stat have I omitted?

You recognize that playoff hockey is a limited sample of data, yet proceed to use it anyway... you really don't understand the issue of small sample size do you?



I support the team having better, more effective players regardless of who they are, so your accusing me of having some sort of bias towards Gaudette is unwarranted and frankly quite insulting.

Doesn't matter the fact remains Virtanen and Sutter was the most frequent linemates. That doesn't even make up anywhere close to 50% of their total ice time. You ignore the rest of the linemates because it bring down your argument. The fact remain he does produce with better linemates

You're comparing a young quicker Sutter that was in his prime to the right now Sutter. Numbers should be lower but the p60 still around the same.

I wonder why you didn't use raw points total since Sutter had his best point total season when was playing regularly with Whitney and Cole. The best player Sutter played with regular produce the best results. Yet Sutter playing with better linemates is not a better player. Hmm.

You're so focus p60 because it bring up your argument and ppg you can't use because you can't use ppg to pump up Gaudette with that. If Gaudette ppg was higher. You will be using that argument.

The funny thing you wanted to compare the two last seasons for Sutter and Gaudette. Therefore we should look at the results for these 2 seasons and not close to everey season of sutter career. The fact remain Sutter produce better numbers with better linemates for the last 2 seasons.

The fact remain once again I bring up quality of competition and Gaudette gets the easiest competition and you don't have any answer for that. That is why p60 min is very misleading. Not all mins are treated equally.

I have read many articles about zone starts as well. Eaxh article doesn't say exact samething. If you subscribe to the athletic there one article indicates on average about 20% more ozone starts impacts the Corsi about 20%.

If your argument that zone starts doesn't matter because most shifts are starting off of the fly. Then I can tell you this argument doesn't work for Sutter because Sutter shifts this year had more shift that are not off the fly
Your zone argument doesn't really work anymore.

Yes playoffs is a small sample size but that is only sample size we have for the playoffs. If Gaudette had a great playoffs. You will definitely be using that as your argument.

Sutter highly quality of competition, less shifts off the fly, worst linemates and yet ppg is higher end Ga60 is lower for this year. Sutter 5 on 5 better offensively and defensively this year. I will give you a lol for your linemates doesn't make a difference for Sutter.

Have a great day. I am done with this. See you in the management thread

 

[Hit the post]

Wouldn’t McCann have looked good as our 3C at less the cap hit than Sutter and far more effective player than Gaudette at this point. Cheaper than Pearson as well (who’s just a winger).

But No-Good-Branson...

 

[Lupuls Grit]

This is a strange debate. If you are Travis Green, who do you trust to be your 3C in a playoff game tonight? Who do you trust to be on the ice when mistakes are magnified and you absolutely have to win? I like the offensive potential of Gaudette, but anyone who chooses Gaudette in that situation is either not watching the games or is overly naïve about how weak he is defensively. The "eye test" is not the end all be all but in this particular case it gives you the answer. Of course, like the rest of you, I hope they find a trade partner and move on from Sutter so long as they retain Beagle for faceoffs, 4th line duty and PK. God help us if they get rid of both of them (hint: they won't).

 

[vanuck]

Well, there's a lot to unpack here but it seems that I'm not making myself clear...

Doesn't matter the fact remains Virtanen and Sutter was the most frequent linemates. That doesn't even make up anywhere close to 50% of their total ice time. You ignore the rest of the linemates because it bring down your argument. The fact remain he does produce with better linemates

You're comparing a young quicker Sutter that was in his prime to the right now Sutter. Numbers should be lower but the p60 still around the same.

I wonder why you didn't use raw points total since Sutter had his best point total season when was playing regularly with Whitney and Cole. The best player Sutter played with regular produce the best results. Yet Sutter playing with better linemates is not a better player. Hmm.

Uh... you realize that Sutter put up 1.2 P/60 at 5v5 with Whitney and 0.7 with Cole that year right? At best he performed around his career average. How does that even support your argument?

You're so focus p60 because it bring up your argument and ppg you can't use because you can't use ppg to pump up Gaudette with that. If Gaudette ppg was higher. You will be using that argument.

Why are you projecting these weird assumptions on me? PPG is a horrible stat because players get different amounts of ice-time and to pretend that isn't true is just ignoring reality.

The funny thing you wanted to compare the two last seasons for Sutter and Gaudette. Therefore we should look at the results for these 2 seasons and not close to everey season of sutter career. The fact remain Sutter produce better numbers with better linemates for the last 2 seasons.

Since you're so insistent, let's look at how they each performed with the same linemates over the last 2 years shall we?

Sutter's Linemate	TOI With	P/60
Virtanen	321:57	1.3
Roussel	240:55	1.0
Motte	192:55	0.93
Leivo	124:40	1.44
Eriksson	102:40	0.58
Gaudette	82:58	2.89
Pearson	77:18	0.78

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Gaudette's Linemate	TOI With	P/60
Virtanen	436:37	0.96
Roussel	427:49	2.24
Leivo	155:10	1.16
Pearson	125:15	1.92
Eriksson	104:33	1.72
Motte	94:10	0.64
Sutter	82:58	3.62

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Boeser is left out because he only played 31:49 with Sutter - but comparing how they each did with the exact same guys that you mentioned, they tied in terms of producing more with a given linemate. In the 80-odd minutes they were both on the ice Gaudette outscored him... Plus the best Sutter did was with Leivo which doesn't even beat Gaudette's average P/60 of 1.51 while playing with multiple forwards over that span.

As I already mentioned, Sutter's 1.25 P/60 over the last 2 years is exactly in line with his career average over hundreds of games while playing on 3 different teams and dozens of different forwards. What does this tell you? Is it remotely possible that at some point one's own ability plays a factor in P/60 over the long-run? Like when does offensive talent actually come into play here?

This is not to say that I don't think Sutter could produce more if you put him with better players i.e the Sedins for a chunk of 2016-17. The question was always whether he's the best offensive option, and that's reflected in his career P/60 to begin with. Does his offensive talent improve just because you put him with EP versus Beagle? No. EP would create more chances for him to score but his inherent skill level doesn't change, and is reflected in his average which can be sussed out over a large data sample after playing with so many different forwards.

The fact remain once again I bring up quality of competition and Gaudette gets the easiest competition and you don't have any answer for that. That is why p60 min is very misleading. Not all mins are treated equally.

I already answered - did you read what I linked? Tell me why QoC matters when there's so much variance in who any given player faces over the long-run?

I have read many articles about zone starts as well. Eaxh article doesn't say exact samething. If you subscribe to the athletic there one article indicates on average about 20% more ozone starts impacts the Corsi about 20%.

If your argument that zone starts doesn't matter because most shifts are starting off of the fly. Then I can tell you this argument doesn't work for Sutter because Sutter shifts this year had more shift that are not off the fly
Your zone argument doesn't really work anymore.

I don't subscribe to the Athletic but if you've read many different ones like you said you have... then why did you pick that one article out of many, even though it also happens to not say the exact same thing as the others? At least I used multiple different sources that corroborate each other.

It appears you didn't read what I posted too because they all come to the same conclusion: Zone starts mean very little.

By the way, Sutter had 403 on-the-fly starts this year which is more than the others combined. So does that make it ok now? Should I look at 2018-19 as well? Or are you just making **** up at this point?

Yes playoffs is a small sample size but that is only sample size we have for the playoffs. If Gaudette had a great playoffs. You will definitely be using that as your argument.

I don't like using playoffs to draw conclusions because... guess what? There's such little data that it's meaningless. So again I don't know why you're assuming how I think, it's getting weird.

Small sample size is small sample size no matter if it's regular season or playoffs, you know that right? Just because it's in the playoffs doesn't justify it.

Sutter highly quality of competition, less shifts off the fly, worst linemates and yet ppg is higher end Ga60 is lower for this year. Sutter 5 on 5 better offensively and defensively this year. I will give you a lol for your linemates doesn't make a difference for Sutter.

Have a great day. I am done with this. See you in the management thread

... And this is the conclusion you get when you bury your head in the sand, rely on blatantly false information plus small samples and use bad thinking to justify what you want to see. Lmao... no wonder you want to exit this conversation. How do you expect anyone to have a reasonable discussion with you in future?

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

This is a strange debate. If you are Travis Green, who do you trust to be your 3C in a playoff game tonight? Who do you trust to be on the ice when mistakes are magnified and you absolutely have to win? I like the offensive potential of Gaudette, but anyone who chooses Gaudette in that situation is either not watching the games or is overly naïve about how weak he is defensively. The "eye test" is not the end all be all but in this particular case it gives you the answer. Of course, like the rest of you, I hope they find a trade partner and move on from Sutter so long as they retain Beagle for faceoffs, 4th line duty and PK. God help us if they get rid of both of them (hint: they won't).

i get your point but re the bolded

didn’t we see the answer to that question last month? from the elimination games against the blues on, it wasn’t sutter

 

[Lupuls Grit]

i get your point but re the bolded

didn’t we see the answer to that question last month? from the elimination games against the blues on, it wasn’t sutter

I think we need to look at actual deployment rather than how it's written out as a starting line up. Here is how it stacks up in that series:

Game 1: Sutter 16:02 Gaudette 0
Game 2: Sutter 17:41 Gaudette 0
Game 3: Sutter 19:04 Gaudette 0
Game 4: Sutter 16:25 Gaudette 0
Game 5: Sutter 11:47 Gaudette 7:22
Game 6: Sutter 16:58 Gaudette 10:16

Unfortunately, Gaudette has not played a good enough 2 way game to earn Green's trust. Hopefully he continues to develop because, unless he's a trade chip (which he should be if the Canucks don't believe in his ability to improve), the team will need to rely on him in that role because we know that Sutter is simply no longer good enough for anything other than 4th line & PK duties.

 

[Canucks1096]

Well, there's a lot to unpack here but it seems that I'm not making myself clear...



Uh... you realize that Sutter put up 1.2 P/60 at 5v5 with Whitney and 0.7 with Cole that year right? At best he performed around his career average. How does that even support your argument?



Why are you projecting these weird assumptions on me? PPG is a horrible stat because players get different amounts of ice-time and to pretend that isn't true is just ignoring reality.



Since you're so insistent, let's look at how they each performed with the same linemates over the last 2 years shall we?

Sutter's Linemate	TOI With	P/60
Virtanen	321:57	1.3
Roussel	240:55	1.0
Motte	192:55	0.93
Leivo	124:40	1.44
Eriksson	102:40	0.58
Gaudette	82:58	2.89
Pearson	77:18	0.78

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Gaudette's Linemate	TOI With	P/60
Virtanen	436:37	0.96
Roussel	427:49	2.24
Leivo	155:10	1.16
Pearson	125:15	1.92
Eriksson	104:33	1.72
Motte	94:10	0.64
Sutter	82:58	3.62

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Boeser is left out because he only played 31:49 with Sutter - but comparing how they each did with the exact same guys that you mentioned, they tied in terms of producing more with a given linemate. In the 80-odd minutes they were both on the ice Gaudette outscored him... Plus the best Sutter did was with Leivo which doesn't even beat Gaudette's average P/60 of 1.51 while playing with multiple forwards over that span.

As I already mentioned, Sutter's 1.25 P/60 over the last 2 years is exactly in line with his career average over hundreds of games while playing on 3 different teams and dozens of different forwards. What does this tell you? Is it remotely possible that at some point one's own ability plays a factor in P/60 over the long-run? Like when does offensive talent actually come into play here?

This is not to say that I don't think Sutter could produce more if you put him with better players i.e the Sedins for a chunk of 2016-17. The question was always whether he's the best offensive option, and that's reflected in his career P/60 to begin with. Does his offensive talent improve just because you put him with EP versus Beagle? No. EP would create more chances for him to score but his inherent skill level doesn't change, and is reflected in his average which can be sussed out over a large data sample after playing with so many different forwards.



I already answered - did you read what I linked? Tell me why QoC matters when there's so much variance in who any given player faces over the long-run?



I don't subscribe to the Athletic but if you've read many different ones like you said you have... then why did you pick that one article out of many, even though it also happens to not say the exact same thing as the others? At least I used multiple different sources that corroborate each other.

It appears you didn't read what I posted too because they all come to the same conclusion: Zone starts mean very little.

By the way, Sutter had 403 on-the-fly starts this year which is more than the others combined. So does that make it ok now? Should I look at 2018-19 as well? Or are you just making **** up at this point?



I don't like using playoffs to draw conclusions because... guess what? There's such little data that it's meaningless. So again I don't know why you're assuming how I think, it's getting weird.

Small sample size is small sample size no matter if it's regular season or playoffs, you know that right? Just because it's in the playoffs doesn't justify it.



... And this is the conclusion you get when you bury your head in the sand, rely on blatantly false information plus small samples and use bad thinking to justify what you want to see. Lmao... no wonder you want to exit this conversation. How do you expect anyone to have a reasonable discussion with you in future?

You're making stuff up. You left Beagle out. The worst offensive player. You decided to leave him out. I wonder why, can it because it hurts your arguments? The evidences indicates to me that overall Gaudette still getting better linemates. Motte is way down on the list and Beagle didn't even played with Gaudette for more than a few mins.

Just friendly reminder the argument is the last 2 seasons. The fact show when Sutter plays with better linemates in the last 2 seasons his points go up. Not sure why you're looking at his career average. His career average doesn't change what happened in the last 2 seasons. Your argument linemate failed.

Your argument was zone start doesn't matter because a lot more shifts are on the fly. That is the argument that a lot of articles said. But the fact is Gaudette has 10 times more shifts off of the fly than Dzone starts. Sutter has 2.5 times more. The point I am making you can't really used those articles as reference because Sutter doesn't really fit their criteria. Sutter usage is so different from 90% of the other players. I do agree to some extent that zone starts doesn't make to big of a difference in scoring. But a lot of articles didn't say it make no difference. A handful of goal scored more during the season already helps my argument a lot. Zone start argument failed.

Why does variance matter in qoc? The fact remain Gaudette gets easier mins. Acting like it make difference is ridiculous

Also you keep focusing on the zone articles. Regardless what does article Sutter this had easier competition than the year before. Yet his points and GA improve. That proves already that quality of competition matters to Sutter the last 2 years. By looking at the improvement in numbers from this season compare last 2 seasons. I can use the argument quality of competition matters. Qoc aegument failed

Let me ask you this pretend If Gaudette play a lot more against top 6 forward instead of bottom 6 forwards. has the same usage as Sutter. Are you telling me that Gaudette points total and GA will stay the same? If your answer yes. Then we should stop this conversation since you still have your I love Gaudette glasses on. How you can even make an argument that playing easier competition makes no difference.

There is no proven fact that p60 metric is better than ppg. No stat is 100% accurate. All stats you can find flawed argument. You're making the assumption more ice time equal more points but that might not be true. More mins mostly Means higher competition as well. That player might not play well against higher competition and not all players can handle more ice time. Back in the day Cooke and Hansen has great p/60 min. Better than a lot of top 6 Forwards. I think we both agree both are not top 6 forwards. Malkin a lot of time has better p60 than Crosby and Crosby is the better player. Mcdavid somtimes is not even top 5 in p/60. If you look every player yearly stat. Lot of time the most ice time didn't equal to the most points.

On the pp. Virtanen was first in p/60 and Gaudette was 2nd. Are you telling me those 2 are better pp players than Petey and Miller and they will score just as much playing against top penalty killer. Your answer is No. P/60 it means very little.

This is just the eye test on average a few of Sutter shifts per a game. He just out for the Dzone faceoffs and goes up the ice. That does hurt his p/60

Small sample or not. Sutter played a lot of better than Gaudette in the playoffs.

If you're going to reply. Please take off your I love Gaudette glasses on.

As of right now what is proven that Gaudette is a better pp player than Sutter and that's it. I can accept a tie between ppg and p60. But worst linemates overall, worst zone start and higher qoc. That gives a Sutter an edge. You have the p60, your only argument . Funny thing is you love p/ 60 argument so much. Then you should love GA60 this year Sutter was much better than Gaudette. But you ignore this because it brings down your argument.

There is so much cherry picking in your argument.

 

[F A N]

Zone starts (just like faceoffs) and competition don't correlate with production/possession the way you think it does - no coach in the league has full control over who his centres match up with on the ice as they lose last change on road games. OTOH, sure, linemates have an impact on players' production as well as underlying numbers but look at Gaudette's and Sutter's two most common linemates over the last 2 years... for both it's Roussel and Virtanen. The two D-men they've both played with the most over that span are Edler and Stecher. So how do teammates factor in here for P/60? And even if it does play a role, how do you know it's enough to make up for the difference without giving anything other than a subjective opinion?

If Sutter is truly better defensively why is it that the Canucks give up more shot attempts, shots, expected goals and actual goals with Sutter on the ice? Why does it not show up in the stats? Sutter's not being used as a matchup guy (not that it'd be relevant anyway), so what's his excuse?

I ask you one more time: what evidence do you have to support your assertion that Sutter produces superior defensive results? (other than being decent on the PK which doesn't justify being worse at 5v5... this is literally the Jay Beagle Fallacy all over again)

As to the playoffs... let's not use tiny sample sizes to inform your arguments. This is how bad decisions are made - we can do better than that.

Sutter at his best was not particularly good at shot suppression but somehow his goalies seem to have a higher SV% when he is on the ice. At some point that's not a fluke.

Sutter isn't the player he once was, but I'm not sure what defensive metrics you are looking at to declare that Gaudette is better defensively. In the regular season, Gaudette played more even strength minutes than Sutter (averaging slightly less per game). Gaudette was on the ice for 16 more EV goals against. Sutter's GA/60, xGA/60, HDGA/60, SA/60, OISV%, are all better than Gaudettes.

If superior defensive results means doing a better job of keeping the puck out of the net, Sutter certainly did a better job than Gaudette.

Now, I'm of the view that the Canucks should try and move Sutter so none of the above is in any way support of keeping Sutter over Gaudette as I believe in the contrary.

 

[Cogburn]

If we have a playmaker in kind, and keep Virtanen, the Sutter is redundant and we focus on a Gaudette centered 3rd line.

If we rebuild our bottom six, or use Gaudette to sell a cap dump, we make a defensive oriented 3rd line.

Basically pick a lane here, Benning!

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

I think we need to look at actual deployment rather than how it's written out as a starting line up. Here is how it stacks up in that series:

Game 1: Sutter 16:02 Gaudette 0
Game 2: Sutter 17:41 Gaudette 0
Game 3: Sutter 19:04 Gaudette 0
Game 4: Sutter 16:25 Gaudette 0
Game 5: Sutter 11:47 Gaudette 7:22
Game 6: Sutter 16:58 Gaudette 10:16

Unfortunately, Gaudette has not played a good enough 2 way game to earn Green's trust. Hopefully he continues to develop because, unless he's a trade chip (which he should be if the Canucks don't believe in his ability to improve), the team will need to rely on him in that role because we know that Sutter is simply no longer good enough for anything other than 4th line & PK duties.

yes sutter got more minutes, but after gaudette got back in the lineup in game five, didn’t sutter mostly play on beagle’s wing?

but yeah green really loves watching his fourth line get hemmed in for double length shifts.

my point was just that green clearly did literally have gaudette as his playoff 3C for the last nine games, even though AG, roussel, and jake were a soft deployment third line, a la wellwood as opposed to the malhotra kind.

 

[Canucks1096]

yes sutter got more minutes, but after gaudette got back in the lineup in game five, didn’t sutter mostly play on beagle’s wing?

but yeah green really loves watching his fourth line get hemmed in for double length shifts.

my point was just that green clearly did literally have gaudette as his playoff 3C for the last nine games, even though AG, roussel, and jake were a soft deployment third line, a la wellwood as opposed to the malhotra kind.

Sutter played mainly on Gaudette wing. Green doesnt trust Gaudette out there without Sutter.

Virtanen played with Beagle mainly. Motte will move up on the third line and take Rousell spot at times as well.

 

[vanuck]

You're making stuff up. You left Beagle out. The worst offensive player. You decided to leave him out. I wonder why, can it because it hurts your arguments? The evidences indicates to me that overall Gaudette still getting better linemates. Motte is way down on the list and Beagle didn't even played with Gaudette for more than a few mins.

Just friendly reminder the argument is the last 2 seasons. The fact show when Sutter plays with better linemates in the last 2 seasons his points go up. Not sure why you're looking at his career average. His career average doesn't change what happened in the last 2 seasons. Your argument linemate failed.

Where am I making stuff up? Just like Boeser only played a handful of minutes with Sutter, Beagle was left out because he only played 18:10 with Gaudette. I don't fabricate things just to try and win arguments here.

Yes, I've been using the last 2 seasons as the dataset this whole time. And again, I never said Sutter couldn't put up a few more points here and there depending on his linemates. That's not what I'm arguing. I mean, you could just as easily say the same for Gaudette. Why is it that, among those guys they both played with, the highest P/60 Sutter has achieved over the last 2 years is 1.44 (with Leivo), while Gaudette's is 2.24 (with Roussel)?

Your argument was zone start doesn't matter because a lot more shifts are on the fly. That is the argument that a lot of articles said. But the fact is Gaudette has 10 times more shifts off of the fly than Dzone starts. Sutter has 2.5 times more. The point I am making you can't really used those articles as reference because Sutter doesn't really fit their criteria. Sutter usage is so different from 90% of the other players. I do agree to some extent that zone starts doesn't make to big of a difference in scoring. But a lot of articles didn't say it make no difference. A handful of goal scored more during the season already helps my argument a lot. Zone start argument failed.

Tell me: how exactly is Sutter used? Because this seems to be the crux of the issue here.

You probably noticed that Pettersson has 11 times more on-the-fly starts than D-zone starts. Is he not a good player regardless?

Regardless of ratios (which have never been stated to matter) Sutter's on-the-fly starts still represent a vast majority of his shifts. This is why when looking at stats that adjusted for zone starts back then you'd see very little change. His starts in the OZ/DZ are only 28% of everything (and really less than that for D-zone only), so the other 72% are either started in the neutral zone (so no advantage) or on-the-fly. The idea of something so small disproportionately affecting his performance is a gross exaggeration.

Why does variance matter in qoc? The fact remain Gaudette gets easier mins. Acting like it make difference is ridiculous

Well thanks for basically admitting that you haven't read any of what I posted. Maybe you should actually bother to enlighten yourself. You might learn something?

Also you keep focusing on the zone articles. Regardless what does article Sutter this had easier competition than the year before. Yet his points and GA improve. That proves already that quality of competition matters to Sutter the last 2 years. By looking at the improvement in numbers from this season compare last 2 seasons. I can use the argument quality of competition matters. Qoc aegument failed

What did I say again about small sample sizes? The guy played 26 games in 2018-19 and 44 the next year. How are you supposed to read anything into that?

Though if you really want to argue that way (and you probably don't), Gaudette's P/60 was better in both years. Does that mean anything to you?

Let me ask you this pretend If Gaudette play a lot more against top 6 forward instead of bottom 6 forwards. has the same usage as Sutter. Are you telling me that Gaudette points total and GA will stay the same? If your answer yes. Then we should stop this conversation since you still have your I love Gaudette glasses on. How you can even make an argument that playing easier competition makes no difference.

You seem to think that Sutter only plays against top lines all the time whenever he's in a matchup role. Even back in 2017-18 when he was in our top 6 this wasn't true, and even less so over the past 2 years now that he's firmly in the bottom 6. Again, if you'd even just read the Vancouver Courier article which talks about QoC you'd have understood this.

Virtually no one ever strictly plays in their own zone only against top competition. Even 2011 Malhotra would be out there against lower lines, and he was a better two-way forward than Sutter ever was. This is a false narrative and if you think this is the case for a lot of "defensive forwards" then your eye test is faulty or you simply don't understand how the NHL works.

There is no proven fact that p60 metric is better than ppg. No stat is 100% accurate. All stats you can find flawed argument. You're making the assumption more ice time equal more points but that might not be true. More mins mostly Means higher competition as well. That player might not play well against higher competition and not all players can handle more ice time. Back in the day Cooke and Hansen has great p/60 min. Better than a lot of top 6 Forwards. I think we both agree both are not top 6 forwards. Malkin a lot of time has better p60 than Crosby and Crosby is the better player. Mcdavid somtimes is not even top 5 in p/60. If you look every player yearly stat. Lot of time the most ice time didn't equal to the most points.

On the pp. Virtanen was first in p/60 and Gaudette was 2nd. Are you telling me those 2 are better pp players than Petey and Miller and they will score just as much playing against top penalty killer. Your answer is No. P/60 it means very little.

This is just the eye test on average a few of Sutter shifts per a game. He just out for the Dzone faceoffs and goes up the ice. That does hurt his p/60

Generally - year over year - the best offensive forwards are up there in terms of P/60, while the no-talent goons/scrubs are dead last. Why? Because the top scorers are also the most efficient, and P/60 is an efficiency rating.

For the PP we're talking about 60 and 88 minutes so the sample itself is pretty small (an idea you've yet to fully grasp) unlike 5v5. So again, you can't read much into it? If anything I'd probably expect that to regress next season.

Small sample or not. Sutter played a lot of better than Gaudette in the playoffs.

If you're going to reply. Please take off your I love Gaudette glasses on.

As of right now what is proven that Gaudette is a better pp player than Sutter and that's it. I can accept a tie between ppg and p60. But worst linemates overall, worst zone start and higher qoc. That gives a Sutter an edge. You have the p60, your only argument . Funny thing is you love p/ 60 argument so much. Then you should love GA60 this year Sutter was much better than Gaudette. But you ignore this because it brings down your argument.

There is so much cherry picking in your argument.

So now I've confirmed that you have an extremely hard time wrapping your head around this whole sample size thing. Keep trying, you'll get it eventually.

 

[vanuck]

Sutter at his best was not particularly good at shot suppression but somehow his goalies seem to have a higher SV% when he is on the ice. At some point that's not a fluke.

Sutter isn't the player he once was, but I'm not sure what defensive metrics you are looking at to declare that Gaudette is better defensively. In the regular season, Gaudette played more even strength minutes than Sutter (averaging slightly less per game). Gaudette was on the ice for 16 more EV goals against. Sutter's GA/60, xGA/60, HDGA/60, SA/60, OISV%, are all better than Gaudettes.

If superior defensive results means doing a better job of keeping the puck out of the net, Sutter certainly did a better job than Gaudette.

Now, I'm of the view that the Canucks should try and move Sutter so none of the above is in any way support of keeping Sutter over Gaudette as I believe in the contrary.

To be fair I probably should've been more clear in that I was looking at possession metrics (CF, FF, SF, GF and xGF), whether regular percentages or relative to when the player is off the ice. Puck possession matters after all - winning hockey games is about winning the goals for/against battle, at the end of the day.

Sutter only played 44 games this year, so to draw any lasting conclusions is iffy at best. I looked at the last 2 seasons for a bigger sample, and Gaudette's stats show to be better.

Regardless, apologies for the confusion. Really though I should be saying that Gaudette is looking like the better possession forward, whereas defensively the jury may still be out depending on how he develops.

 

[Canucks1096]

Where am I making stuff up? Just like Boeser only played a handful of minutes with Sutter, Beagle was left out because he only played 18:10 with Gaudette. I don't fabricate things just to try and win arguments here.

Yes, I've been using the last 2 seasons as the dataset this whole time. And again, I never said Sutter couldn't put up a few more points here and there depending on his linemates. That's not what I'm arguing. I mean, you could just as easily say the same for Gaudette. Why is it that, among those guys they both played with, the highest P/60 Sutter has achieved over the last 2 years is 1.44 (with Leivo), while Gaudette's is 2.24 (with Roussel)?



Tell me: how exactly is Sutter used? Because this seems to be the crux of the issue here.

You probably noticed that Pettersson has 11 times more on-the-fly starts than D-zone starts. Is he not a good player regardless?

Regardless of ratios (which have never been stated to matter) Sutter's on-the-fly starts still represent a vast majority of his shifts. This is why when looking at stats that adjusted for zone starts back then you'd see very little change. His starts in the OZ/DZ are only 28% of everything (and really less than that for D-zone only), so the other 72% are either started in the neutral zone (so no advantage) or on-the-fly. The idea of something so small disproportionately affecting his performance is a gross exaggeration.



Well thanks for basically admitting that you haven't read any of what I posted. Maybe you should actually bother to enlighten yourself. You might learn something?



What did I say again about small sample sizes? The guy played 26 games in 2018-19 and 44 the next year. How are you supposed to read anything into that?

Though if you really want to argue that way (and you probably don't), Gaudette's P/60 was better in both years. Does that mean anything to you?



You seem to think that Sutter only plays against top lines all the time whenever he's in a matchup role. Even back in 2017-18 when he was in our top 6 this wasn't true, and even less so over the past 2 years now that he's firmly in the bottom 6. Again, if you'd even just read the Vancouver Courier article which talks about QoC you'd have understood this.

Virtually no one ever strictly plays in their own zone only against top competition. Even 2011 Malhotra would be out there against lower lines, and he was a better two-way forward than Sutter ever was. This is a false narrative and if you think this is the case for a lot of "defensive forwards" then your eye test is faulty or you simply don't understand how the NHL works.



Generally - year over year - the best offensive forwards are up there in terms of P/60, while the no-talent goons/scrubs are dead last. Why? Because the top scorers are also the most efficient, and P/60 is an efficiency rating.

For the PP we're talking about 60 and 88 minutes so the sample itself is pretty small (an idea you've yet to fully grasp) unlike 5v5. So again, you can't read much into it? If anything I'd probably expect that to regress next season.



So now I've confirmed that you have an extremely hard time wrapping your head around this whole sample size thing. Keep trying, you'll get it eventually.

I am just going to make things short and simple where.

Back in July 21, 2020. You wrote this about Gaudette "ideally a third line center it someone that doesn't need sheltering"

This confirm to me right now that you think qoc/zone do matter. Because if you don't think those matter, then someone doesn't need sheltering. Only reasons why someone need sheltering is because they can't handle Dzone starts and higher qoc. Now it doesn't matter because it doesn't fit your argument. Sutter doesn't play the mins, he once had but does get tougher mins than Gaudette.

Your argument and what I read, a lot more shifts are off the fly and that's why dzone start doesn't matter. Like I agree to some extent however for Sutter you can't use this as an argument. Why because the majority of players percentage of shifts that are on the fly vs Dzone start is way more. We were talking up to 11x higher. Sutter last 2 season is a little over 2x more. It's not fair argument to say Dzone start didn't matter for Sutter

Linemates, you don't like small sample size and yet you're using Rousell has higher p60 than Leivo when playing with Gaudette and Sutter. Rousell plays 3 time more mins with Gaudette than Sutter playing with Leivo. Imaging lot of those Rousell mins went to Motte and Beagle for Gaudette. It will definitely make a difference.

You want to debate the last 2 seasons, yet I can't use any of my argument because of small sample size. Playoffs, GA60, when I compared last season to this season showing Sutter stats were better. If everything is a small sample size for Sutter. You can't Gaudette stat that are better than Gaudette. I guess we can't debate anymore.

Do you feel better if I said when Sutter was in the lineup. He had a better ppg, ga60 and playoffs was better but the sample size are small?

P/60 it doesn't mean a lot to me. Gaudette gets about 12 mins a game. He on pace for 46 points this year. Lets say he plays 20 mins a game. That mean he will get close to 80 points. Chances of that happening is like 0. If you agree this. That mean as p60 doesn't mean much.

Have a great day.

 

[vanuck]

I am just going to make things short and simple where.

Back in July 21, 2020. You wrote this about Gaudette "ideally a third line center it someone that doesn't need sheltering"

This confirm to me right now that you think qoc/zone do matter. Because if you don't think those matter, then someone doesn't need sheltering. Only reasons why someone need sheltering is because they can't handle Dzone starts and higher qoc. Now it doesn't matter because it doesn't fit your argument. Sutter doesn't play the mins, he once had but does get tougher mins than Gaudette.

In isolation, sure, one shift against the opponent's 1st line can matter. QoC and ZS% just don't have much of an impact on stats over the long-run i.e in aggregate. Gaudette and Sutter don't play enough minutes disproportionately against those guys for it to skew their results. Do you understand what I'm getting at?

If Gaudette becomes a 3C who plays more minutes yes he'll end up seeing time against top lines more often by default. Does this mean he'll have to improve defensively to survive those occasions he's going head-to-head? Yes. But it still doesn't mean he'll play every single shift against them, and that also goes for pretty much every NHL center.

Your argument and what I read, a lot more shifts are off the fly and that's why dzone start doesn't matter. Like I agree to some extent however for Sutter you can't use this as an argument. Why because the majority of players percentage of shifts that are on the fly vs Dzone start is way more. We were talking up to 11x higher. Sutter last 2 season is a little over 2x more. It's not fair argument to say Dzone start didn't matter for Sutter

You keep saying it's not fair but you have to demonstrate why the established evidence is wrong? Why do zone starts matter for him - especially when he's no longer taking on tough matchups the last 2 years since Green has designated that role to Horvat - when it hardly does for other forwards?

Linemates, you don't like small sample size and yet you're using Rousell has higher p60 than Leivo when playing with Gaudette and Sutter. Rousell plays 3 time more mins with Gaudette than Sutter playing with Leivo. Imaging lot of those Rousell mins went to Motte and Beagle for Gaudette. It will definitely make a difference.

Uhhh actually, I've been using the exact same timeframe you have (the last 2 years) when you claimed that Sutter produced more with better linemates. These are your words:

The fact show when Sutter plays with better linemates in the last 2 seasons his points go up. Not sure why you're looking at his career average.

If you're going to complain about Sutter not having played as much with Leivo as Gaudette did with Roussel... well, see, that's why I only looked at Roussel and Virtanen for them both in the first place because at least Sutter played more minutes with those two. But then you complained that I wasn't including their other linemates (like Leivo), who now apparently hasn't played enough to say. So... which method would you prefer?

You want to debate the last 2 seasons, yet I can't use any of my argument because of small sample size. Playoffs, GA60, when I compared last season to this season showing Sutter stats were better. If everything is a small sample size for Sutter. You can't Gaudette stat that are better than Gaudette. I guess we can't debate anymore.

The funny thing is I'm fine with you comparing GA/60 in aggregate over the last two seasons. I'm even willing to concede that Sutter gives up fewer goals than Gaudette does (again, from looking at the past 2 years).

You should know that goals for/against inherently cause sample size issues because they occur way less often than shots and shot attempts. After all, you took great care to point out each of Gaudette's fluky points at the start of this season... so you should be well aware of this fact yourself, no?

Do you feel better if I said when Sutter was in the lineup. He had a better ppg, ga60 and playoffs was better but the sample size are small?

Hey now we're getting somewhere. As long as you consistently apply that standard everywhere else then you'll see where I've been coming from.

Hell, look no further than how Tyler Seguin's doing in these playoffs. He's struggling to put up points but do you really think he's that bad going forward? Or is there maybe something else going on, like the percentages not going in his favour over a small sample of games?

P/60 it doesn't mean a lot to me. Gaudette gets about 12 mins a game. He on pace for 46 points this year. Lets say he plays 20 mins a game. That mean he will get close to 80 points. Chances of that happening is like 0. If you agree this. That mean as p60 doesn't mean much.

Have a great day.

I don't think I've ever claimed that production increases linearly like that. But P/60 generally reflects who's more efficient at producing offense. Pts/game does too but it doesn't account for TOI. You could have two players on different teams putting up 0.5 PPG yet one plays on the 2nd line, the other gets 3rd line minutes. Who's likely the better scorer?

 

[Zombotron]

 

[Bleach Clean]

Of course they want Sutter coming back as the cap dump. Benning better hold firm on Eriksson as the piece going back.

This was the method I thought Benning would use: Send out his poor contracts while taking on a bigger (or longer termed) riskier contract for a better player.

 

[VancouverJagger]

Of course they want Sutter coming back as the cap dump. Benning better hold firm on Eriksson as the piece going back.

This was the method I thought Benning would use: Send out his poor contracts while taking on a bigger (or longer termed) riskier contract for a better player.

Yeah agree - hold firm on Eriksson............we have the leverage here. He has a list of 2 teams........

Please Benning don't eff this up.

 

[82Ninety42011]

Sutter can actually play for us next year please Loui has to be the dump !!