Brady Tkachuk vs 2019 #4 Overall Pick

[mattcookefan]

I personally rate both Byram and Turcotte higher than Brady, so I'm happy they kept him in that sense. What hurts, is that the Avs need impact players asap, and both of those kids probably won't play in the bigs until 20/21 at best.

eh id rather we get impact players later, as to not be included in the expansion draft

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

This is what Sens fans tried explaining to other fans (specifically Avs fans) all season, but to them they had the unlikely scenario of Hughes to Colorado.

I'm glad (many) Avs fans didn't grasp this simple concept, its made the pick falling to 4 way, way funnier after all the gloating. Was it still a bad trade, hell ya but at least we have this little bit of schadenfreude. I really wouldnt have cared but man oh man were (many) Avs fans obnoxious

 

[Byron Bitz]

Post lottery I take Brady. This time yesterday I take the lottery tickets all day. 18.5% odds at Hughes was a massive asset and if you miss out you get to enter the Kakko lottery with similar odds.

 

[tony d]

Brady for me. I think he's going to be a key piece for Ottawa going forward.

 

[Sureves]

Well, without using hindsight, even if the Sens were guaranteed to finish last (they werent), this was still the most likely outcome by a large margin. Before the first puck was dropped this season, it was overwhelmingly likely that the pick would be 4th or lower. The chances that it would be top 3 got higher as the season went on but they has never been a single second where the pick was more likely to be 3rd or higher than the likelihood that it would be 4th or lower.

So, in short, your reasoning is flawed on at least as many levels as theirs

Sorry, if you finish last overall, what is your odds of picking #4 or later? I don't think it is "overwhelmingly likely" but I don't know the numbers.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Sorry, if you finish last overall, what is your odds of picking #4 or later? I don't think it is "overwhelmingly likely" but I don't know the numbers.

Before the puck was dropped this season is the key phrase. Was Ottawa finishing last predictable, sure, but the league has a ton of parity and we could have easily not come last. And, even when we did come last, we still had >50% odds for our pick to land 4th. Lets say if you run a simulation of this season 1000 times, and lets say Ottawa comes last 850 of the times, we would pick 4th or lower ~60% of the time. Maybe "overwhelmingly likely" is an exaggeration, but the main point is that at there was literally never a fraction of a second where we were more likely to pick 1-3 than we were to pick 4-31.

 

[Sureves]

Before the puck was dropped this season is the key phrase. Was Ottawa finishing last predictable, sure, but the league has a ton of parity and we could have easily not come last. And, even when we did come last, we still had >50% odds for our pick to land 4th. Lets say if you run a simulation of this season 1000 times, and lets say Ottawa comes last 850 of the times, we would pick 4th or lower ~60% of the time. Maybe "overwhelmingly likely" is an exaggeration, but the main point is that at there was literally never a fraction of a second where we were more likely to pick 1-3 than we were to pick 4-31.

Right, yes I agree.