Player Discussion Brady Tkachuk: Episode 5 - Management Strikes Back

[danielpalfredsson]

I mean if he becomes a consistent 70 point player he should get 8 mill. I just don't understand why you want to already pay him that money without him actually doing it.

Unless you think Brady is actually a 10 mill a year player when guys like Matthews, Kucherov, Rantanen, Marner, Panarin make 9 to 11.5 mill.

His brother is a 70 point player and just signed a contract that gave up no UFA years and has a 9M qualifying offer in the final season. Meaning, unless the Flames don't qualify him, he will have an AAV of at least 9 million.

It's where the cap is going that's important. Go back and read the threads from when Draisaitl and Eichel signed. TKACHUK IS NOWHERE NEAR EITHER OF THOSE GUYS. (There is my disclaimer) but the point is that everything is relative. The response on these forums was largely negative, but with the cap going up and changing mentality with contracts, those players would now probably cost 12-13 million on an 8 year term if they were free agents today instead of 8.5 or 10 million. Cap inflation and timing contracts against when young players peak (which for most players isn't on their ELC) is a real thing.

The type of player Tkachuk is, he will get paid more as a UFA because of his overall game and how rare it is to find a power forward like him. He will have four RFA years left after his ELC expires and will be 1 year away from arbitration.

He's not that far away from being an 8 million dollar player. He's going to get at least 6 on a much shorter term. 8 is not a good contract, but it's not a bad one either if it is on an 8 year term. By the time the contract is half over, 7+ is going to solidly be 2nd line UFA money. 50 point players like Brock Nelson are already getting in the 6 million range. That is what the team would be hedging against. We overpay now presumably when we have an abundance of cap/salary to work with in order to create some stability and cost control our players.

5 years from now when Tkachuk would be starting his UFA years, he will probably be able to command 10 million as a UFA. Maybe more. But that will be because of cap inflation and the possible ramifications of the next US TV deal.

 

[JungleBeat]

His brother is a 70 point player and just signed a contract that gave up no UFA years and has a 9M qualifying offer in the final season. Meaning, unless the Flames don't qualify him, he will have an AAV of at least 9 million.

It's where the cap is going that's important. Go back and read the threads from when Draisaitl and Eichel signed. TKACHUK IS NOWHERE NEAR EITHER OF THOSE GUYS. (There is my disclaimer) but the point is that everything is relative. The response on these forums was largely negative, but with the cap going up and changing mentality with contracts, those players would now probably cost 12-13 million on an 8 year term if they were free agents today instead of 8.5 or 10 million. Cap inflation and timing contracts against when young players peak (which for most players isn't on their ELC) is a real thing.

The type of player Tkachuk is, he will get paid more as a UFA because of his overall game and how rare it is to find a power forward like him. He will have four RFA years left after his ELC expires and will be 1 year away from arbitration.

He's not that far away from being an 8 million dollar player. He's going to get at least 6 on a much shorter term. 8 is not a good contract, but it's not a bad one either if it is on an 8 year term. By the time the contract is half over, 7+ is going to solidly be 2nd line UFA money. 50 point players like Brock Nelson are already getting in the 6 million range. That is what the team would be hedging against. We overpay now presumably when we have an abundance of cap/salary to work with in order to create some stability and cost control our players.

5 years from now when Tkachuk would be starting his UFA years, he will probably be able to command 10 million as a UFA. Maybe more. But that will be because of cap inflation and the possible ramifications of the next US TV deal.

Depends what his production is next year. There’s no way Tkachuk signs a long term contract this offseason if he only gets 47 points from what he’s pacing at. He’ll most likely play out his ELC and take it from there.

Mathew was on pace for 60 points his sophomore year and had 77 points in his third season. Brady needs to get at least 50 points next season to command $7M on a long term deal; if he opts for a bridge contract it’ll be around $5-6M. His next season will be very telling.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

He’d better put up a 30+ goal 30 assist season then, because that’s what will be needed for a 3 x 6aav. His brother put up 35 goals and 42 assists and got the 3 x 7.

The 3 year deal is in his interest, not the teams.

I don’t know if Tkachuk needs to quite go 30-30 next year to warrant a 3 x 6aav contract. His brother signed a pretty team friendly deal and also has played on one of the highest scoring teams in the league the last few years. If he continues to be a 25-25 player I think a 3X6aav is closer to the floor on what he’d get in a bridge contract.

That’s also taking into account that the cap has gone up a bit and that the Sens aren’t even close to the cap like Calgary was when they were getting Mathews deal done.

 

[JD1]

I mean if he becomes a consistent 70 point player he should get 8 mill. I just don't understand why you want to already pay him that money without him actually doing it.

Unless you think Brady is actually a 10 mill a year player when guys like Matthews, Kucherov, Rantanen, Marner, Panarin make 9 to 11.5 mill.

This is the Sens board dude. A place where we talk up our players and talk down other team's players. If you want to talk up Karlsson andxtalk down Tkachuk, maybe you should do that some place else

 

[JD1]

Depends what his production is next year. There’s no way Tkachuk signs a long term contract this offseason if he only gets 47 points from what he’s pacing at. He’ll most likely play out his ELC and take it from there.

Mathew was on pace for 60 points his sophomore year and had 77 points in his third season. Brady needs to get at least 50 points next season to command $7M on a long term deal; if he opts for a bridge contract it’ll be around $5-6M. His next season will be very telling.

I agree with you that Brady won't sign this summer. He'll bet on himself and wait. I'll bet on the Senators being better, having a better offensive center, a better PP and improved 5 on 5 metrics, all of which contribute to Brady comfortably blowing by your 50 point notion.

 

[coladin]

I guess Hischier from NJ is the comparable?

 

[BondraTime]

I guess Hischier from NJ is the comparable?

Yeah I’d imagine he’d be a guy both sides would look at, as well as Landeskog.

Hischier signed after his 19 year old season, Tkachuk is currently finishing his 20 year old season.

Tlachuk has goals solidly in his favour, Hischier has assists and points.

Tkachuk definitely has the intangibles, though Hischier is playing #1pk and #1pp.

Looking at it if Brady wants to sign a long term deal, I’d imagine Hischier is the guy Tkachuks side will be using, as he’s paid handsomely right now for what he is currently bringing and is on a deal where they are paying for his potential rather than his current skill set.

Not sure Brady is considering a long term deal right now though, I’d assume he would want to wait until he finished his 3rd elc year and bet on himself.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Yeah I’d imagine he’d be a guy both sides would look at.

Hischier signed after his 19 year old season, Tkachuk is currently finishing his 20 year old season.

Tlachuk has goals solidly in his favour, Hischier has assists and points.

Tkachuk definitely has the intangibles, though Hischier is playing #1pk and #1pp.

Looking at it if Brady wants to sign a long term deal, I’d imagine Hischier is the guy Tkachuks side will be using, as he’s paid handsomely right now for what he is currently bringing and is on a deal where they are paying for his potential rather than his current skill set.

Not sure Brady is considering a long term deal right now though, I’d assume he would want to wait until he finished his 3rd elc year and bet on himself.

Not sure how to compare those two players 1 to 1.. They play so different. Points, Where they play in the lineup, Special team play / production; But vastly different players. I guess overall value to their teams .. still hard to quantify.

Tkachuk's value to the Senators can't be measured in just points alone as some of the earlier posts here suggest. Its hard to name the intangibles and quantify them and value them but he definitely brings some.

For example.. Given the who the two players are today.. Does Tkachuk's value at 50 pts match Hischier's value at 60 pts? Can Tkachuk's intangibles be worth the extra 10 pts Hischier can put up.

 

[BondraTime]

Not sure how to compare those two players 1 to 1.. They play so different. Points, Where they play in the lineup, Special team play / production; But vastly different players. I guess overall value to their teams .. still hard to quantify.

Tkachuk's value to the Senators can't be measured in just points alone as some of the earlier posts here suggest. Its hard to name the intangibles and quantify them and value them but he definitely brings some.

For example.. Given the who the two players are today.. Does Tkachuk's value at 50 pts match Hischier's value at 60 pts? Can Tkachuk's intangibles be worth the extra 10 pts Hischier can put up.

Well that’s the reason most guys who produce get paid handsomely, while there are guys (like Tkachuk) who help teams more but don’t get paid as much. Points are the main factor for contracts with regards to forwards. The more points, the higher the contract. Points are able to be evaluated at a regular and advanced level, whereas the intangibles are all unreadable. Tkachuk is getting extra money based on his game, no doubt about that. How much more, I’m glad I’m not tasked with coming up with the number.

Right now, Tkachuk is producing very similarly to Hischier prior to signing the contract, he’s just a shade below in points per game. He’s scoring at a higher clip, while producing assists at a much lower clip. Hischier has been a #1PK guy, whereas Brady isn’t playing the PK yet.

The Devils likely view Hischier as a point a game guy, and rushed to get this contract signed prior to him “breaking out”. Had they waited, he would certainly have a smaller contract after this year, where he is producing at another ~50 point pace.

The Devils paid upfront to try and come in front of Hischiers breakout. Nothing wrong with it, though it looks as though waiting may have been the smart move. The additions of Subban, Gusev and Hughes and a healthy Hall likely led their brass to believe they would see a big year points wise from Hischier.

I personally don’t see Tkachuk getting 60 points next season, and I never view him as a point a game guy, which is why I don’t see a point in trying to sign him right now. Brady on the other hand, I’m sure expects to blow past 60, so he as well will likely want to wait until next year as well for different reasons.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Well that’s the reason most guys who produce get paid handsomely, while there are guys (like Tkachuk) who help teams more but don’t get paid as much. Points are the main factor for contracts with regards to forwards. The more points, the higher the contract. Points are able to be evaluated at a regular and advanced level, whereas the intangibles are all unreadable. Tkachuk is getting extra money based on his game, no doubt about that. How much more, I’m glad I’m not tasked with coming up with the number.

Right now, Tkachuk is producing very similarly to Hischier prior to signing the contract, he’s just a shade below in points per game. He’s scoring at a higher clip, while producing assists at a much lower clip. Hischier has been a #1PK guy, whereas Brady isn’t playing the PK yet.

The Devils likely view Hischier as a point a game guy, and rushed to get this contract signed prior to him “breaking out”. Had they waited, he would certainly have a smaller contract after this year, where he is producing at another ~50 point pace.

The Devils paid upfront to try and come in front of Hischiers breakout. Nothing wrong with it, though it looks as though waiting may have been the smart move. The additions of Subban, Gusev and Hughes and a healthy Hall likely led their brass to believe they would see a big year points wise from Hischier.

I personally don’t see Tkachuk getting 60 points next season, and I never view him as a point a game guy, which is why I don’t see a point in trying to sign him right now. Brady on the other hand, I’m sure expects to blow past 60, so he as well will likely want to wait until next year as well for different reasons.

I get that ... On those two specifically. I agree with your earlier point on following Matthew's path to bet on himself. Not taking anything away for Hischier who is an excellent young player. I think Brady would have to take a shorter term contract first to get what Hischier signed for. My point was more about player vs player evaluation vs actual $ what Hischier signed his extension for.

 

[Sens in Process]

Tkachuk is projected to put up something like 25 goals and 25 assists this year, while not being surrounded by high-end offensive talent. As the team gets better, I think his numbers will speak for themselves and he will get paid. The kid has drastically improved his balance and skating after his first year as pro. I think next years version will be scary.

He is truly a unique player.

 

[JD1]

I am kind of in the camp that the things Brady does not do well are things the team will always have better guys to do. Right now, it's those guys that need upgrading and when that happens we'll see more point productivity from Brady

We're not going to see a better net front PP presence than Brady. He'll get better at it as he puts on weight, but it's the play around him that needs to improve. And the guys in the pipeline have more talent than the guys we run out there now

Brady types are never the guys that carry the puck ftom the d zone to the o zone. Our PMDs are young and will get better at moving the puck, and our current top Cs should be bottom 6 Cs. We'll get better at that as White, Norris and Brown mature.

Brandy's numbers could go up a lot, but the team around him has to improve a lot for that too happen.

 

[JungleBeat]

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[Ice-Tray]

That’s pretty classic. Nice to see. With these two guys as pillars going forward we’re in a really
good spot.

Not gonna lie, the guys had me grinning the whole interview, boys will be boys.... (in a good way).

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Doesn’t he know Brady falls down 15 times per game?

Anton Khudobin says Senators forward Brady Tkachukis is ‘too young to dive’ after Stars overtime loss

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

On pace for 25 goals and 50 points.

Great for a sophomore season playing on one of the worst teams in the league with a 3rd line center.

Can't wait to see what he does in his prime with a true #1 Center and maybe a sniper on his line. 35 goals 65 points+.

 

[GCK]

I think he gets the Chabot deal this summer and he gets the C.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

On pace for 25 goals and 50 points.

Great for a sophomore season playing on one of the worst teams in the league with a 3rd line center.

Can't wait to see what he does in his prime with a true #1 Center and maybe a sniper on his line. 35 goals 65 points+.

+ this:


Incredibly unique player we have here. And he hasn't had an injury since, like, his 6th game in the NHL (or something like that)

 

[Six Assets]

+ this:


Incredibly unique player we have here. And he hasn't had an injury since, like, his 6th game in the NHL (or something like that)

very interesting.

although that many hits also seems to emphasize the sens lack of puck possession.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

very interesting.

although that many hits also seems to emphasize the sens lack of puck possession.

I dont know about that. I get the argument, but Ovie and Wilson are two of the most physical fwds in the league and the Caps have historically been an elite puck possession team. Ultimately, no matter what, there will be dozens of times when you approach an opposing player with the puck; I think the bigger factor than puck possession is just a willingness and ability to finish ones check, which is a skill that varies between players. Brady is one of the best at it.

The Sens dump the puck in a lot when Brady is on the ice because he tends to turn 20/80 puck battles into 50/50 puck battles, and he tends to win 50/50 puck battles like they are 80/20 (pulling numbers out of my ass). I find a lot of his hits come in those situations.

 

[Dino Tkachuk]

very interesting.

although that many hits also seems to emphasize the sens lack of puck possession.

This is less about possession and speaks to the fact that you almost never see a fly-by from Tkachuk. The kid will hit every chance he gets and this is why the numbers like this pile up.

 

[JD1]

Doesn’t he know Brady falls down 15 times per game?

Anton Khudobin says Senators forward Brady Tkachukis is ‘too young to dive’ after Stars overtime loss

Khudobin clearly grabbed Tkachuk. He also spent the entire game waving his stick at anyone standing in front of him.

The embellishment call on Tkachuk was pure bullshit. The stick between his legs clearly can opener'ed him

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[RAFI BOMB]