Player Discussion Brady Tkachuk: Episode 4 - A new hope

[Sens in Process]

That really isn't surprising, whether you liked the pick or not.

Brady was always seen as the most ready prospect.

This has been going around a lot recently.

Here is what Bob Mckenzie said in his final draft ranking:

Tkachuk, meanwhile, is a lot less refined and less polished than the other elite picks but the big raw-boned winger plays a hard-driving, aggravating power and agitation game. He proved at the World Junior Championship he can score and make plays in a pressure event against elite competition, which was a good thing since his overall lack of productivity at Boston University was becoming something of a concern. But Tkachuk appears to have that certain something and only one of our 10 scouts surveyed had him outside the top five

https://www.tsn.ca/kotkaniemi-surges-into-top-five-of-tsn-draft-ranking-1.1115400

Tkachuk was considered raw before the draft. Many analysts and posters were sure he needed another year in college or junior before entering the pros.

 

[Viletho]

It would be awesome if you committed to pronounced your sons name in a French accent his whole life (assuming your anglophone) to make it clear he is really named after Chabot .

I'm french So we are saying it the french way.

 

[Icelevel]

More points than Svechnikov is definitely surprising. Maybe not once you factor in the difference in opportunity and ice-time between the two, but in a vacuum it's pretty shocking. Not a single credible person thought Tkachuk's offence would translate anywhere near as quickly at this level as Svechnikov's.

I predicted 20 goals I think. So I’m sure there were others. You are calling me not credible I guess though(which would be fair enough).

Like I was jumping up and down excited when we drafted him and wasn’t that pumped about a pick in a long time (ever?) and I consider myself relatively knowledgeable. But I was looking around wanting to give Dorion style high fives and it seemed everyone had a frown.

 

[Six Assets]

More points than Svechnikov is definitely surprising. Maybe not once you factor in the difference in opportunity and ice-time between the two, but in a vacuum it's pretty shocking. Not a single credible person thought Tkachuk's offence would translate anywhere near as quickly at this level as Svechnikov's.

svechnikov has a similar point/goal total playing mostly with 3rd liners and almost no number 1 power play time.

 

[stempniaksen]

I predicted 20 goals I think. So I’m sure there were others. You are calling me not credible I guess though(which would be fair enough).

Like I was jumping up and down excited when we drafted him and wasn’t that pumped about a pick in a long time (ever?) and I consider myself relatively knowledgeable. But I was looking around wanting to give Dorion style high fives and it seemed everyone had a frown.

I was one of the bigger backers pre-draft and called for him to top 35 points, so I'm with ya for the most part.

A lot of people had Svechnikov coming in and lighting the world on fire though. He was supposed to be one of the favourites for the Calder and lots of people were already slotting him into the Canes top line. Given the offence he showed in Barrie compared to Tkachuk's numbers at BU lots of people were calling for an easier transition for AS.

 

[devbouz12]

Habs already have a bunch of players that you hate to play but would love on your team. Thank good they also didn’t add Brady to that mix.

Exactly. Kotkaniemi is also a typical habs type of player imo. I think the top from last year's draft fit their respective teams perfectly.

 

[DJB]

Did I hear correctly that there is something on Brady on CTV news tonight ?

 

[Icelevel]

Did I hear correctly that there is something on Brady on CTV news tonight ?

why not? Tkachuk TV. Tkachuks are taking over. The world needs more Tkachuk. No?

 

[RAFI BOMB]

svechnikov has a similar point/goal total playing mostly with 3rd liners and almost no number 1 power play time.

Well let's just look at Tkachuk's performance post trade deadline. In 17 games he has 7 goals and 12 points. He is scoring goals at a rate of 0.41 per game and 0.71 points per game. Over the course of 82 games those rates project to 34 goals (33.62) and 58 points (58.22).

Andrei Svechnikov

• shooting percentage of 10.9%,
• averages 14.41 in TOI/G,
• has 20 EVG and 0 PPG,
• averages 0.25 g/gp,
• has 3 GWG
• averages 0.22 a/gp

Brady Tkachuk

• shooting percentage of 10%,
• averages 15.55 in TOI/G,
• has 18 EVG and 3 PPG,
• averages 0.31 g/gp,
• has 4 GWG
• averages 0.32 a/gp

Even in the last 7 games Tkachuk has 7 points and 5 goals. He is producing a point per game and averaging 0.72 goals per game which projects for 59 over 82 games

Arguing that Svechnikov has had worse linemates doesn't really work when we look at Tkachuk's performance post trade deadline. It is even interesting to see him dominate most strongly in the final stretch which suggests he is improving. It will be interesting to see who is the better point producer in the long run but at this point it looks like Tkachuk will be competitive with Svechnikov in terms of point production.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Did I hear correctly that there is something on Brady on CTV news tonight ?

Terry Marcotte had dinner with him at Fratellis

 

[Six Assets]

Even in the last 7 games Tkachuk has 7 points and 5 goals. He is producing a point per game and averaging 0.72 goals per game which projects for 59 over 82 games

lmao

 

[RAFI BOMB]

This has been going around a lot recently.

Here is what Bob Mckenzie said in his final draft ranking:


https://www.tsn.ca/kotkaniemi-surges-into-top-five-of-tsn-draft-ranking-1.1115400

Tkachuk was considered raw before the draft. Many analysts and posters were sure he needed another year in college or junior before entering the pros.

Imagine if Tkachuk played in the OHL this season. He certainly benefited playing with Stone but he likely would have dominated that league.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

lmao

Objective fact. The numbers don't have to necessarily be sustainable for it to be a positive sign of development. Matthew Tkachuk has 77 points in 79 games in his 3rd season in the NHL. Brady's development seems to be on a similar path. His performance over his last 7 games just further supports the claim that he is a talented point producer in the NHL and that we can be confident that his point production will improve moving forwards.

 

[Micklebot]

Objective fact. The numbers don't have to necessarily be sustainable for it to be a positive sign of development. Matthew Tkachuk has 77 points in 79 games in his 3rd season in the NHL. Brady's development seems to be on a similar path. His performance over his last 7 games just further supports the claim that he is a talented point producer in the NHL and that we can be confident that his point production will improve moving forwards.

As a rookie in the lockout shortened year, Yakupov scored 31 pts in 48 games , he also scored a remarkable 11 goals and 15 pts in his last 14 games that season, so we can be confident that his point production will improve moving forwards...

Don't get me wrong, I really like Brady. I was happy to draft him, and think he'll be a key part of this team for years to come. I just think he's still got a ways to go yet. I also don't see value in comparing his production to Svech, and in particular Dahlin at this stage given the context is completely different.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

As a rookie in the lockout shortened year, Yakupov scored 31 pts in 48 games , he also scored a remarkable 11 goals and 15 pts in his last 14 games that season, so we can be confident that his point production will improve moving forwards...

Don't get me wrong, I really like Brady. I was happy to draft him, and think he'll be a key part of this team for years to come. I just think he's still got a ways to go yet. I also don't see value in comparing his production to Svech, and in particular Dahlin at this stage given the context is completely different.

I would be interested in seeing an analysis on Yakupov. I am curious if there were meaningful indications that his performance would drop off in his first season or whether it simply came as surprise.

In regards to Tkachuk, that is why I used the word confident. Nothing is definitive and everything i speculative in player projections. The Tkachuk vs Svechnikov comparison was because a few other posters laughed at the fact being brought up that Tkachuk has more points in fewer games than Dahlin, Svechnikov and Kotkaniemi. It is entirely possible and plausible that Tkachuk could end up being the best player of the bunch. Tkachuk is and has been very underrated and while Svech and Dahlin had a lot more hype than him, we have seen very hyped prospects not live up to the expectations and fail to meet the projections.

 

[Six Assets]

I would be interested in seeing an analysis on Yakupov. I am curious if there were meaningful indications that his performance would drop off in his first season or whether it simply came as surprise.

In regards to Tkachuk, that is why I used the word confident. Nothing is definitive and everything i speculative in player projections. The Tkachuk vs Svechnikov comparison was because a few other posters laughed at the fact being brought up that Tkachuk has more points in fewer games than Dahlin, Svechnikov and Kotkaniemi. It is entirely possible and plausible that Tkachuk could end up being the best player of the bunch. Tkachuk is and has been very underrated and while Svech and Dahlin had a lot more hype than him, we have seen very hyped prospects not live up to the expectations and fail to meet the projections.

Tkachuk has a few more points than Dahlin, a defenceman, so how does that mean he could end up being better? You take a 7 game ppg statistic, and extrapolate that over an entire season to make a point that he's a talented point producer like his brother, who has always put up better numbers at every level of hockey.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Tkachuk has a few more points than Dahlin, a defenceman, so how does that mean he could end up being better? You take a 7 game ppg statistic, and extrapolate that over an entire season to make a point that he's a talented point producer like his brother, who has always put up better numbers at every level of hockey.

I literally provided an analysis of the underlying performance numbers for both Matthew and Brady a few pages back.
Matthew Tkachuk
Season 1: 0.64 pts/g, 0.17 G/g - projection over 82 games of 52.48 pts and 14.21 g
Season 2: 0.72 pts/g, 0.35 G/g - projection over 82 games of 59.9 pts and 28.94 g

Brady Tkachuk
Season to date: 0.63 pts/g, 0.31 G/g - projection over 82 games of 51.66 pts and 25.42 g
Performance post trade deadline: 0.71 pts/g, 0.41 G/g - projection over 82 games of 58.22 pts and 33.62 g

In his first season Brady is performing at almost the same rate in pts/g and in G/g he is performing similar to Matthew in his second season. Some had been concerned how Brady would perform without Stone, the post trade deadline performance offers that analysis. As we can see since the trade deadline Brady has been producing at a pts/g rate comparable to Matthew in year 2 and his G/g is actually meaningfully higher than Matthew in year 2.

The data suggest that your opinion is wrong. Matthew may have produced more points at different levels but so far the data suggests that Brady is producing at a very similar rate to Matthew. Given that Matthew has done a tremendous job offensively this season and Brady has similar numbers to Matthew's earlier seasons, it suggests that Brady might be on a similar development rate.

As for the 7 game ppg statistic you missed the point. That was demonstrating that as the season has progressed his underlying numbers are improving quite rapidly. Producing at a point per game and 0.72 G/g even over that small sample size is impressive considering he is on the worst team in the league with very few talented players and he doesn't have Stone with him.

It seems pretty clear that you have a negative view of Brady and that you aren't open to having your opinion changed.

 

[Six Assets]

I literally provided an analysis of the underlying performance numbers for both Matthew and Brady a few pages back.
Matthew Tkachuk
Season 1: 0.64 pts/g, 0.17 G/g - projection over 82 games of 52.48 pts and 14.21 g
Season 2: 0.72 pts/g, 0.35 G/g - projection over 82 games of 59.9 pts and 28.94 g

Brady Tkachuk
Season to date: 0.63 pts/g, 0.31 G/g - projection over 82 games of 51.66 pts and 25.42 g
Performance post trade deadline: 0.71 pts/g, 0.41 G/g - projection over 82 games of 58.22 pts and 33.62 g

In his first season Brady is performing at almost the same rate in pts/g and in G/g he is performing similar to Matthew in his second season. Some had been concerned how Brady would perform without Stone, the post trade deadline performance offers that analysis. As we can see since the trade deadline Brady has been producing at a pts/g rate comparable to Matthew in year 2 and his G/g is actually meaningfully higher than Matthew in year 2.

The data suggest that your opinion is wrong. Matthew may have produced more points at different levels but so far the data suggests that Brady is producing at a very similar rate to Matthew. Given that Matthew has done a tremendous job offensively this season and Brady has similar numbers to Matthew's earlier seasons, it suggests that Brady might be on a similar development rate.

As for the 7 game ppg statistic you missed the point. That was demonstrating that as the season has progressed his underlying numbers are improving quite rapidly. Producing at a point per game and 0.72 G/g even over that small sample size is impressive considering he is on the worst team in the league with very few talented players and he doesn't have Stone with him.

It seems pretty clear that you have a negative view of Brady and that you aren't open to having your opinion changed.

I appreciate the effort that you put into your posts. However, I believe that your analysis is superficial and hardly an "analysis of the underlying performance", as you described it. You're putting too much value into basic scoring metrics projected over an entire season. What does it mean to you that gibbons has the same number of points as Tkachuk since the trade deadline?

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I appreciate the effort that you put into your posts. However, I believe that your analysis is superficial and hardly an "analysis of the underlying performance", as you described it. You're putting too much value into basic scoring metrics projected over an entire season. What does it mean to you that gibbons has the same number of points as Tkachuk since the trade deadline?

They are rough estimates. In terms of a quantitative analysis with publicly available data it is a decent assessment of a player.

I think it is more relevant to a prospect than to a veteran player. A prospect is going through a development curve so speculative projections make sense. The whole points per game and goals per game is a good way of assessing if development is trending in a positive direction.

For Gibbons specifically I am very pessimistic of his ability to replicate his production moving forward. He is 31 years old which suggests it is highly unlikely that he would have a massive development spike where his performance would drastically and sustainably improve. Just superficially glancing at his previous point production suggests that his current production is an anomaly. I would maybe consider offering him a two way contract, not a one way deal.

As for Tkachuk the point is trying to figure out what kind of player he is and is capable of becoming. Many looked at his stats prior to being drafted and made some negative assumptions about his skill level. He was highly touted by reputable hockey people but his stats seemed to contradict their claims. We drafted him and a number of posters were very upset. Others had very modest expectations of him and thought it would have been best for him to play in the OHL, AHL or NCAA this season, for that matter apparently Brady's family thought he should delay turning pro so he proved a lot of people wrong. Many thought that Svechnikov, Dahlin and Zadina were better prospects with more skill and offensive upside. So far that claim has been challenged by Brady's excellent season. Many thought that Matthew was clearly the better and more skilled player. Some reputable hockey people argued against that and so far we are seeing that the gap between them is much smaller than many thought.

All of these are very positive signs and offer confidence in the belief that Brady will continue to improve. We will have to wait and see how the prospects from his draft pan out but so far he is competing with all of them. Even Dahlin isn't a sure fire bet to keep improving, look at Ekblad he was a highly touted prospect got drafted first overall had a strong rookie season and hasn't taken a step forward offensively since then.

Tkachuk is a great prospect and I am very happy we drafted him

 

[Micklebot]

Brady has reached the 1000 post milestone and then some; generational post driving talent.

New thread: Player Discussion - Brady Tkachuk: Episode 5 - Management Strikes Back