Player Discussion Brady Skjei

Discussion in 'New York Rangers' started by Pavel Buchnevich, May 3, 2016.

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  1. Amazing Kreiderman

    Amazing Kreiderman @StatBoy_Steven Sponsor

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    But the salary won't go up. That's the thing. It's about AAV (Annual Average Value). Once the contract is signed, the AAV doesn't change. There are several aspects when looking at what a player is worth:

    1. Role
    2. RFA years left
    3. Salary cap
    4. Possible clauses

    Brady Skjei is a 2nd pair D-man, with 3 RFA years left with the salary cap at 75m. Here are some examples of 2nd pair D-men (at the time of signing their contract base on ATOI) with 3-4 RFA years left and signing a contract of minimum 5 years (So, no bridge deals).

    upload_2018-6-5_22-18-46.png

    Some scenarios:
    upload_2018-6-5_22-19-9.png

    Some might not agree with my approach of looking at cap-hit percentage, but I feel it's the best way to judge what is a fair offer. It seems that an AAV around 5 million for a 6-year deal is fair. I put a lot of time and effort into making this look pretty with colors, and I know it's not 100% accurate looking at ATOI in the season preceding the signing of the contract, but don't blow me off! ;)
     
  2. Nopuckluck

    Nopuckluck Registered User

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    Yes I am. If your top pairing guys are getting paid more and your goalie gets 8.5 mill and your top line combined is going to be over 30 mill and on and on and on. I don’t want a second pairing guy making 5%

    So let’s do this
    2nd pairing 10%
    First pairing 15%+
    Third pairing 6%
    Goalie 10.5%

    That’s 42% not counting a backup goalie or ANY forwards

    Yes I know the team will have a lot of young guys on ELC contracts the next few years but we need room to sign UFAs when we turn the corner
     
  3. Amazing Kreiderman

    Amazing Kreiderman @StatBoy_Steven Sponsor

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    Pssst. 2 times 5 is 10 :laugh:
     
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  4. Nopuckluck

    Nopuckluck Registered User

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    Yeah no ****. That’s why it says second pairing 10%
     
  5. Amazing Kreiderman

    Amazing Kreiderman @StatBoy_Steven Sponsor

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    You are not making sense... But what else is new?
     
  6. NewYorkNick

    NewYorkNick 1st Line Center Boo Synergy Nieves Sponsor

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    Trade Buchnevich is apparently the correct answer. Somehow.
     
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  7. Amazing Kreiderman

    Amazing Kreiderman @StatBoy_Steven Sponsor

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    "I want to spend at most 10 dollars on 2 key chains, but 5 dollars for one key chain is too expensive"
     
  8. haveandare

    haveandare Registered User

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    It’s not something that can be proven objectively but imo 5% of your cap for a second pairing d-man is completely reasonable
     
  9. NewYorkNick

    NewYorkNick 1st Line Center Boo Synergy Nieves Sponsor

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    :laugh:
    #Math
     
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  10. Nopuckluck

    Nopuckluck Registered User

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  11. NewYorkNick

    NewYorkNick 1st Line Center Boo Synergy Nieves Sponsor

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    Yes. Math. We’re familiar.
    [​IMG]
     
  12. Amazing Kreiderman

    Amazing Kreiderman @StatBoy_Steven Sponsor

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    This quote makes no sense.
     
  13. shinchanuuhh

    shinchanuuhh Registered User

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    When puckluck said "letsdo this" he was trying to show why it would be a bad idea to pay both second pair Dmen 5% of the cap.

    I thought he was, at first, saying he wanted 10% to go to the second D pair which obviously made no sense and completely conflicted with what he had said about not giving a 2nd pair D man 5%. He was just showing why he thinks it's a bad idea

    He just did a bad job communicating.

    Also I think his whole premise is flawed anyway. Just bc one 2nd pair dman gets 5% doesn't mean the other does too.

    He seemed to think 42% being used by the 2nd pair, leaving 58% to spare for the backup G and F's is way too small. It isn't. Especially not in the context of this team.
    You can have an entire 4th line making 5-7% combined.

    Based on your breakdown earlier you're left with a little over 50% still. Backup G makes like 1 M to 3M 1-4.25%. You still have 50% for your 3rd, 2nd and 1st line with several guys on ELC's. That means you have spots filled in the top 9 by guys that eat up almost nothing cap wise. So your complaint doesn't seem to have merit.

    3 years from now when the team needs to pay some of the young guys or pay for F's, Hank is off the books. So there's 10.5% back to split between G and other positions.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2018
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  14. Off Sides

    Off Sides Registered User

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    I am not in total disagreement, more so I think it discounts the team leverage in this situation.

    Say the Rangers decide to offer him 4.5M for those same 6 years

    How else is he going to exceed that 27M over those 6 years?

    If he takes the Rangers to arbitration this season, he does not have comparable contracts to get anywhere near 5M on a one or two year deal (Rangers would pick the years one or two)

    The closest higher end comparable in that situation are likely that of

    Ceci 2 year 2.8MAVV
    Murray 2 year 2.825
    Trouba 2 year (would be 3M AVV)

    So Skjei first two years ~2.8M AVV

    Would have another RFA year left after those two years. I don't think he gets close to 5M for that season unless he really improved over the two prior years. Let's go to 3.4M?

    At that point we are at 3 RFA years at a total of ~9M

    What should they pay for his UFA years beyond that?

    If they go 5Mx6 it's a 30M total where 21M of that is dedicated to 3 UFA years, that works out to 7M per UFA year. Will Skjei ever command 7M for his UFA years?

    I think it's possible but it would take much improvement, I would not be so certain it happens so I'd be looking at closer to 6M max for those UFA year.

    9M total for his RFA years, what he likely get by going only signing for his RFA years route
    18M for his 3 UFA years
    27M total for 6 years = 4.5M AVV

    And that would be where I would set the Max, I'd probably try harder to get those UFA years at a lower price as it's 27M in guaranteed money(sans escrow, taxes and such) where as if he becomes injured or never improves to even a 6M per year salary he could take quite a big hit from that 27M
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2018
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  15. Amazing Kreiderman

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    Now in the comparison with Ceci, Murray and Trouba, have you taken into account that the salary cap has gone up by 5 million (6.8%) in the 2 years since those 2 guys signed their bridge deal with just RFA years included? Becuase if we take your calculations with the result being 4.5m AAV, and we add the 6.8%, we get to 4.8m which is exactly what my calculations resulted in ;)

    It looks like we agree except for the cap inflation and if that should be included in the calculations or not. This is almost like contract negotiations itself. Do we have a deal? hahahaha
     
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  16. Off Sides

    Off Sides Registered User

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    For the most part yes, I would not include cap inflation, if Skjei wants to he can wait until it inflates to try to take advantage of it when it does (should it) but he would have to risk taking shorter term deals that pay less in hopes of a bigger pay day down the line

    (however taking the 27M right now he would likely get more upfront as they could pay him 4.5M per year instead of structuring it starting lower)

    My qualm was never that they should not pay him or sign him long term, it was that I think 5M is just too high.
     
  17. Amazing Kreiderman

    Amazing Kreiderman @StatBoy_Steven Sponsor

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    I think the cap will be announced before free agency starts. I think agents, who do the negotiations, definitely look at the cap inflation. But let's just leave it here for now. Good talk :)
     
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  18. Off Sides

    Off Sides Registered User

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    I agree good discussion, while the players may want to take it into account, I'm not so sure the team would, mostly because they could argue that the cap could go down during any season of that contract and it would reverse the % (not that it has happened, or will happen but there is no rule to say it could not)
     
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  19. Off Sides

    Off Sides Registered User

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    Also just to give a little background on why I'm not a huge fan of trying to predict the cap

    Get Ready For A $100 Million NHL Salary Cap. | Spectors Hockey
     
  20. Amazing Kreiderman

    Amazing Kreiderman @StatBoy_Steven Sponsor

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    But my calculations are based on the current cap, not the potential cap in the future. The cap will be between 78m and 82m for 2018-19 and I used the bare minimum in my calculations (78m).
     
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  21. will1066

    will1066 R.I.P. 2017-18

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    In order for Skjei to be successful, he needs to avoid those five-minute majors.

    SNL reference.
     
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  22. Irishguy42

    Irishguy42 Registered User Sponsor

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  23. Shattenhurts

    Shattenhurts Rebuilding.

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    Hopefully an increase in goal scoring for Brady this year.

     
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  24. Ori

    Ori Registered User

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    Yes I hope for a bounce back year for him and he should be really motivated after a huge contract signing for him and Brady secured his future. I hope he can improve his shoot, and he has definitely a higher skill level cap, and he has not reached his full potential at all.
     

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