Player Discussion Braden Holtby Appreciation Thread

[CreeksideStrangler]

Holtby is still the "starting goalie," but Samsonov has started three of the past five games and appeared in a fourth in relief. The only game Holtby has started and finished among the last five was a back-to-back night against Philadelphia. Granted, Holtby was given the harder divisional match-up in that B2B (Sammy got Ottawa).

Going forwards, the week+ break for the ASG and bye week will give the team a chance to reset, so it's hard to say exactly what will happen on the other side of the ASG.

then holtby lost against the second worst team in the league

 

[Raikkonen]

not at 6million for a goalie with no confidence

Confidence comes and goes, one can hope his goalie coach can instill it again.

Also 6M is not a factor at the time of the trade just as it wasnt last time we traded Halak after season.

 

[artilector]

Even if they know their heart is going to be cut out, it still hurts when they cut it out. Its a risk no matter how you slice it. Those around the Caps will tell you they are unusually close as a group. I wouldn't do something like that unless there was a desperate need.

You make the Caps seem a little bit like cupcakes. If losing him now can crater their morale for this run, then losing him in the summer can crater their morale for the next run. What about the boost of morale from adding a big piece (which would be the only reason to trade Holtby in the first place)?

Subjectively, the only Caps whose departure would make me somewhat concerned in terms of team morale would probably be Ovi, Oshie, Wilson, maybe Backstrom.

Anyway, for me the significant argument against trading Holtby is the simple one -- he's all but played his way out of DC, but he still has Cup experience, so trading him to be left with Samsonov/??? for the run better be really worth it in terms of making room for a major piece... which, while possible, seems unlikely.

 

[Raikkonen]

You make the Caps seem a little bit like cupcakes. If losing him now can crater their morale for this run, then losing him in the summer can crater their morale for the next run. What about the boost of morale from adding a big piece (which would be the only reason to trade Holtby in the first place)?

Subjectively, the only Caps whose departure would make me somewhat concerned in terms of team morale would probably be Ovi, Oshie, Wilson, maybe Backstrom.

Anyway, for me the significant argument against trading Holtby is the simple one -- he's all but played his way out of DC, but he still has Cup experience, so trading him to be left with Samsonov/??? for the run better be really worth it in terms of making room for a major piece... which, while possible, seems unlikely.

Maybe Backstrom is an insult surely though...

 

[artilector]

Maybe Backstrom is an insult surely though...

The fact that you didn't list Carlson in your reply is maybe also an insult -- I at least thought of him

 

[CreeksideStrangler]

Confidence comes and goes, one can hope his goalie coach can instill it again.

Also 6M is not a factor at the time of the trade just as it wasnt last time we traded Halak after season.

goes for 3 years??? he reminds me of corey crawford... good enough placeholder until a better goalie comes, but his shortcomings were vastly covered up by a stromg team in front of him.

 

[searle]

How bad does he have to be to play himself into an affordable contract for the Caps?

If he took a 3-4 year deal and stayed on as a 1b for 3-4m I'd be ok with it - how bad does he have to be for that to be his best option?

Alternatively a 1 reasonable year "show me" contract to try and put together a good season for the next free agency - where better to do that than here?

 

[Zorak]

Seattle expansion draft prevents 1b scenario. Signing Holtby to a cheap contract and trading him for at least something would work for a team - even just leaving him on the roster for Seattle to grab him and to protect other players will also work.

But will Holtby agree to it, knowing that he would never play for Caps anyway, even with a signed new contract? I really doubt it (unless he wants to play for Seattle, I guess.)

 

[Kalopsia]

How bad does he have to be to play himself into an affordable contract for the Caps?

If he took a 3-4 year deal and stayed on as a 1b for 3-4m I'd be ok with it - how bad does he have to be for that to be his best option?

Alternatively a 1 reasonable year "show me" contract to try and put together a good season for the next free agency - where better to do that than here?

I've been thinking the same thing, especially about the potential for a one year deal to try to rebuild his value, which seems like the only logical way for the Caps to re-sign him. I feel like we're in this weird position where every bad game Holtby has actually makes it more likely that he stays with the team next year.

 

[Portable Mink]

Trading Oshie having more impact in the room than trading Backstrom is american Bias.

This is Backstrom and Ovi's team.

 

[steam whistle]

Trading Oshie having more impact in the room than trading Backstrom is american Bias.

This is Backstrom and Ovi's team.

Oshie is good player, please keep him.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Trading Oshie having more impact in the room than trading Backstrom is american Bias.

This is Backstrom and Ovi's team.

lol....I’d have Oshie in the same 2nd tier of players as Backy, BELOW Ovy.

This is one man’s team and he isn’t from Sweden or the US.

 

[SpinningEdge]

Holtby is 1-5 with over a 4.5 gaa over the past month

he’s really f***ing himself out of his contract this summer. I think he obviously was trying to get 10 or more. Now he might get half that.

Brutal/disaster way things are going for him lately.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

How bad does he have to be to play himself into an affordable contract for the Caps?

If he took a 3-4 year deal and stayed on as a 1b for 3-4m I'd be ok with it - how bad does he have to be for that to be his best option?

Alternatively a 1 reasonable year "show me" contract to try and put together a good season for the next free agency - where better to do that than here?

A LOT worse for the rest of the year IMO.

 

[SpinningEdge]

Oshie is good player, please keep him.

What people don’t understand is the locker room importance.

caps top guys all seem to be good locker room guys that get along. That’s important.

players obviously want to be here. Carlson could of tested free agency but he signed 8 years to stay. Oshie same thing. Kuzy who wasn’t sold on being over here signed long term. Backstrom said it was important to finish here. Ovi has said he wants to finish here.

Mike Green didn’t want to leave... and laich basically begged to stay too.

It’s a great culture. Maybe Oshie, Backstrom, etc end up being bad deals in the future - but what they bring to the locker room I don’t think you move. That is something we don’t see on cap hits - but I guarantee you is super important for teams.

 

[SpinningEdge]

A LOT worse for the rest of the year IMO.

If he keeps sucking why would he want to stay here?

he’s probably looking for a change of scenery. Especially if things aren’t good.

Of Holtby gets it together in postseason and end of this season - great. He’s too expensive for us to keep. He’s gone

if Holtby keeps stinking, then both parties will agree it’s time to move on. He’s gone

Holtby is gone no matter what - so we can only hope he gets it together and starts crushing it

 

[Sam Spade]

Holtby could have won the Vezina, the Cup and the Conn Smythe and he was gone after this season.

 

[SpinningEdge]

With the exception of John Scott who was voted in as a joke - Has there ever been a more undeserving all star than Holtby is this season?

Holtby has a 3.09 gaa and .897 save percentage.

That’s crazy he’s a all star.

 

[crazy8888]

Holtby is 1-5 with over a 4.5 gaa over the past month

he’s really ****ing himself out of his contract this summer. I think he obviously was trying to get 10 or more. Now he might get half that.

Brutal/disaster way things are going for him lately.

And its all his own fault. I saw somewhere that during the last 3 years his gaa and sv% are amongnst the bottom of the league. Lets also not forget that he only had one good playoff run for the caps. Every other year besides the boston series holtby was big part of the reason why caps got eliminated. Too
Many weak goals. Too many times he could not make a timely save when the team needed him. Time to get rid of him and let some other team overpay him.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Feel for Holts. He's a great dude, his family loves it here, and he's picking the worst time to have these struggles. Samsonov playing out of his mind isn't helping him either.

I can't imagine he wants to be traded but I do believe the uncertainty is wearing on him.

 

[Hivemind]

Lets also not forget that he only had one good playoff run for the caps. Every other year besides the boston series holtby was big part of the reason why caps got eliminated. Too
Many weak goals. Too many times he could not make a timely save when the team needed him.

This is utter nonsense. There are plenty of things to fault Holtby for. There are plenty of things to fault the pre-Cup Capitals for. Holtby's play in those playoff losses is largely not one of them.

He's got a career .928 sv% in the playoffs. He had a GAA of less than 2 goals per game in each of the 2012, 2015, and 2016 playoff runs (with a .935 or higher sv% in all three as well). He stole the series against Boston in 2012. He secured three different OT victories (including the 2OT series clincher) against Toronto by holding them to 2 or fewer goals in games that stretched beyond 60 minutes in 2017. He utterly dominated the Flyers in 2016, including the series clinching 1-0 victory in game 6. His series against Lundqvist and the Rangers are some of the greatest playoff goalie duels of all time (especially 2014-15, in which every single game was decided by 1 goal, two of them went to OT, and Holtby held the Rangers to 2 goals or less in 5 of the 7 games in the series). It's not Holtby's fault that the Capitals could only score 1 goal in 2012 game 7, zero goals combined in games 6 and 7 in 2013, 1 goal in game 7 in 2015, or zero goals in game 7 in 2017. Pinning the series losses on Holtby when the Capitals offense was routinely getting shut out or held to a single goal in critical elimination games is ridiculous.

Claiming that Holtby only had one good playoff run for the Capitals is nothing short of a blatant lie.

 

[kicksavedave]

Claiming that Holtby only had one good playoff run for the Capitals is nothing short of a blatant lie.

Well yeah, true, but also because his "one playoff run", meaning the Cup, he was actually pretty average. He had "the Save" which should not be underlooked in terms of all time great saves, but his overall workload was low and his numbers were simply OK. He hardly carried the Caps to the Cup like some goalies have in the past. He was good, solid, but not "great". His team played great in front of him so he didn't need to be. There was an article recently that showed his Cup workload in terms of qty of save percentage required (called Win Threshold) was among the lowest for a Cup winning goalie in recent memory. I'll see if I can find it but I'm not making this up, I'm recycling the data.

Found it.

Stanley Cup-winning goalies are made, not born. In 2017, Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray of the Pittsburgh Penguins had a combined win threshold of .907 during their championship run. The rest of the league’s netminders had a combined win threshold of .922. Holtby had a win threshold of .878 in 2018 compared to .911 for everyone else. And Jordan Binnington of the St. Louis Blues, a rookie at the time, enjoyed a win threshold of .903 last postseason while the rest of the teams in the playoffs were saddled with a win threshold of .915.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...te-money-high-priced-goaltenders/?arc404=true

 

[Hivemind]

Well yeah, true, but also because his "one playoff run", meaning the Cup, he was actually pretty average. He had "the Save" which should not be underlooked in terms of all time great saves, but his overall workload was low and his numbers were simply OK. He hardly carried the Caps to the Cup like some goalies have in the past. He was good, solid, but not "great". His team played great in front of him so he didn't need to be. There was an article recently that showed his Cup workload in terms of qty of high danger shots was among the lowest for a Cup winning goalie in recent memory. I'll see if I can find it but I'm not making this up, I'm recycling the data.

He was pretty darn great for the Caps when he had to be in that run. He helped turn the fortunes of the Columbus series when he came in game 3 (including taking game 3 to 2OT before Eller's fortunate bounce). He held Pittsburgh to 1 goal in an OT victory against the Pens in game 6. He secured the back-to-back shutouts against Tampa to win games 6 and 7 and advance to the SCF. And then obviously "the save" against Vegas.

 

[kicksavedave]

He was pretty darn great for the Caps when he had to be in that run. He helped turn the fortunes of the Columbus series when he came in game 3 (including taking game 3 to 2OT before Eller's fortunate bounce). He held Pittsburgh to 1 goal in an OT victory against the Pens in game 6. He secured the back-to-back shutouts against Tampa to win games 6 and 7 and advance to the SCF. And then obviously "the save" against Vegas.

Point is, "holding a team to 1 goal" isn't entirely on the goalie. If he only faces a few shots and few high danger shots, he is EXPECTED to hold them to 1 goal, and thats basically how the Cup run played out. The Caps defense in front of Holts in 2018 was among the best in recent Cup memory. Holtby did his job, but he benefitted from the Caps defense doing their job better than anyone else in recent times.

But I would agree, its not always about qty of saves or goals. I've said it often that its about the timing of them, and Holts put it together well in 2018. Conversely, he had good total numbers in the past but often lacked the critical timley save when he really needed it. A goalie who makes 45 easy saves but then lets in a softy in overtime didn't "carry his team" as much as he lets them down. Raw totals don't tell the whole story, but you knew this already.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The difference was in the Cup run he made the key saves....as well as he performed before, he always came up short in that area IMO. Not that he wasn’t great, but the missed timely save (or the missed timely goal scored for us), cost us many series....