Bouchard vs Dobson

[Micklebot]

Same reason why you hear anything in any line of work...some guys just like to talk. They like that attention, they like that they hold information, they like that they can withhold certain things and float trial balloons and other things.

There are some guys out there - usually above the level of scouts - that like to play that mental chess...they want to try to influence some things, they'll try to sell you a bridge...

Other guys just like to chat, they like to tell stories. It's tough too because sometimes you can really throw people under the bus, especially after you have a few tequilas...I've been able to shoot the **** with some guys at the bar and they'll tell a tale and let a name slip and go "oh ****, ****, ****...look, you can't let that get out..."

And then other guys, they know that in the scouting world, knowledge is currency. So they won't tell ya nothing unless they really know you and really trust you...

Yeah, there are definitely a lot of scouts and hockey guys out there that just love to talk hockey, so that's part of it. Ah well, it's to our benefit as fans.

 

[Petes2424]

I find it odd when Wings front office have publicly discussed the draft the last few months they never seem to mention Hughes. It's not really the Wings style to leak draft info and I almost feel like the Bouchard buzz would be to throw teams off who they really want. Hughes might actually be the guy they covet, they got a really close look at him at WC's. Or perhaps even Wahlstrom if they really think he's gonna be an elite scorer, they've been looking for a RH sniper for like a decade. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

If Hughes is gone, I think they have to go Dobson. If they're both gone they'd be better off drafting Wahlstrom or Kotkaniemi and taking two D with their next couple of picks. If they didnt see the strong years from Cholowski and Hronek, maybe they reach for Bouchard. Those two moving up the charts as they have, gives the Wings more options with a top 6 pick.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

If Hughes is gone, I think they have to go Dobson. If they're both gone they'd be better off drafting Wahlstrom or Kotkaniemi and taking two D with their next couple of picks. If they didnt see the strong years from Cholowski and Hronek, maybe they reach for Bouchard. Those two moving up the charts as they have, gives the Wings more options with a top 6 pick.

I think it depends on how they see Cholowski and Hronek projecting. It might be that between those two, they see a lot of puckmoving, but not an elite PP presence like Bouchard. And they did draft all of those terribly dull defensive guys last year, so it may well be that they aren't shopping purely for defensive game. But who knows.

Then again, we're talking about the Wings, so they're probably just going to draft the guy they think has the most character.

 

[docbenton]

I think Bouchard projects as a dominating #1 defenseman who is also close to NHL ready. Dobson projects to be one day a #2-4 defenseman after significant amounts of further development. I don't know which sounds better, though.

 

[cbtitan]

I think Bouchard projects as a dominating #1 defenseman who is also close to NHL ready. Dobson projects to be one day a #2-4 defenseman after significant amounts of further development. I don't know which sounds better, though.

Are you kidding?
Dobson got #1 and + written all over him!

 

[Orca Smash]

Are you kidding?
Dobson got #1 and + written all over him!

Are you kidding?Nobodies kidding unless you can read the future.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

Are you kidding?Nobodies kidding unless you can read the future.

You've called Dobson generational though so you clearly have a very slanted view of him.

 

[Orthodox Caveman]

Bouchard has a better shot and is a better passer. He put up more points in an arguably tougher league and maintained production after London gutted their team.

Dobson is the better skater, less boom/bust and probably has more upside. Memorial Cup champion.

I’m going to like whoever the Wings pick more than the other.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Why does everyone say that Dobson has more upside? IMO Bouchard's passing, shooting, and offensive ability gives him more potential than Noah Dobson. If he can improve his skating, he could be a top 5 offensive defenceman in his prime.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Bouchard's skating isn't what's holding him back. It's a short thread and it's pretty clear what the idea is...

If Bouchard doesn't have the hockey sense he then, in turn, has less steepness to his development arc. Dobson, a more raw prospect in almost every way really, is lower on his arc (or arcs, really, if you want to be technical, you could break out development arcs into different subsets: physical maturity, technical skills, mental, etc.) and has more to eat through and a steeper curve because he looks like a smarter player with better adaptability...hockey sense and adaptability are the unseen hand of prospect development...physical tools are easy to see, good scouts can see the game through the eyes of the player they're watching and calculate to what level they understand the game...

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Bouchard's skating isn't what's holding him back. It's a short thread and it's pretty clear what the idea is...

Is it pretty clear? I haven't seen anyone else express this criticism about his hockey sense. Quite the opposite, in fact; most write-ups from reputable sources praise Bouchard's hockey sense. If there's a consensus at work here, I have yet to see it.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Well, subject matter first: Sorry, to be clear, I meant it's pretty clear why the thought is that he has less of an arc is because hockey sense. Not stating definitively that he doesn't have any.

Two: Most scouting reports having glowing reviews of hockey sense regardless. Even from people that don't have it themselves. In the same way that every prospect is always gonna turn out when you read these things or watch it on TV, or everyone has a great two-way game (Ovechkin, Hodgson, Stamkos, etc.) and you drive it off the lot and realize you got a lemon (not to say 8 or 91 are lemons, they aren't...but neither of them know their goalie's name on any given night).

Evander Kane:

Kane is a physical forward with sniper-like instincts. He is ultra-competitive, consistent and has an innate ability of knowing where to be on the ice at all times.

https://thehockeywriters.com/5-evander-kane-–-the-hockey-spy’s-2009-nhl-entry-draft-rankings/

Luke Schenn:

Schenn is easily the best shutdown rearguard to come along this season, and possibly even since Adam Foote was drafted 19 years ago. His strengths are intelligence, physicality, an ability to instinctively read game situations

Philadelphia Flyers: A Look Back at Scouting Reports – Part 4

Luca Sbisa:

Great breakout pass and great vision, extremely fast and gifted skater, obviously has great offensive instincts and could be a great PP QB. Like most offensive guys...

Luca Sbisa | Luca Sbisa Profile | Luca Sbisa Scouting Report 2008

I mean, the hits just go on and on...

2004: "Malkin is a strong, two-way player" (that led off the report)
2004: "Mike Green is a rare defenseman in that he combines mean, in-your-face play, strong puck skills, and exceptional speed for a defenseman. Very mature for his age, Green is at his best when he's behind the net punishing opposition forwards...

Flaws: I didn't like his shot compared to other top defensemen in the draft...

Player Comparison: Chris Phillips"

And the point isn't that "sometimes people are wrong"...it's just that hockey sense is just one of those tag-a-long things that people feel compelled to throw in there, even if they aren't sure...

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Brown: A data-driven comparison of Evan Bouchard and Noah...

Great article if you have The Athletic. This writer certainly has some stats that we don't. A TL;DR of sorts: the article is broken down into transition, shooting, playmaking, and defense. One section was a tie, Bouchard won two sections, and Dobson won one. The article has Bouchard ahead overall by a hair.

 

[NickH8]

Well, subject matter first: Sorry, to be clear, I meant it's pretty clear why the thought is that he has less of an arc is because hockey sense. Not stating definitively that he doesn't have any.

Two: Most scouting reports having glowing reviews of hockey sense regardless. Even from people that don't have it themselves. In the same way that every prospect is always gonna turn out when you read these things or watch it on TV, or everyone has a great two-way game (Ovechkin, Hodgson, Stamkos, etc.) and you drive it off the lot and realize you got a lemon (not to say 8 or 91 are lemons, they aren't...but neither of them know their goalie's name on any given night).

Evander Kane:



https://thehockeywriters.com/5-evander-kane-–-the-hockey-spy’s-2009-nhl-entry-draft-rankings/

Luke Schenn:



Philadelphia Flyers: A Look Back at Scouting Reports – Part 4

Luca Sbisa:



Luca Sbisa | Luca Sbisa Profile | Luca Sbisa Scouting Report 2008

I mean, the hits just go on and on...

2004: "Malkin is a strong, two-way player" (that led off the report)
2004: "Mike Green is a rare defenseman in that he combines mean, in-your-face play, strong puck skills, and exceptional speed for a defenseman. Very mature for his age, Green is at his best when he's behind the net punishing opposition forwards...

Flaws: I didn't like his shot compared to other top defensemen in the draft...

Player Comparison: Chris Phillips"

And the point isn't that "sometimes people are wrong"...it's just that hockey sense is just one of those tag-a-long things that people feel compelled to throw in there, even if they aren't sure...

Good points. I think this is because every player who will get close to the NHL has to have good hockey sense compared to most of their peers.

 

[docbenton]

Bouchard's skating isn't what's holding him back. It's a short thread and it's pretty clear what the idea is...

If Bouchard doesn't have the hockey sense he then, in turn, has less steepness to his development arc. Dobson, a more raw prospect in almost every way really, is lower on his arc (or arcs, really, if you want to be technical, you could break out development arcs into different subsets: physical maturity, technical skills, mental, etc.) and has more to eat through and a steeper curve because he looks like a smarter player with better adaptability...hockey sense and adaptability are the unseen hand of prospect development...physical tools are easy to see, good scouts can see the game through the eyes of the player they're watching and calculate to what level they understand the game...

Bouchard's hockey sense is far superior to Dobson's. It's like 2 tiers away if you're grouping defensemen by that metric. It's hard to imagine how someone could see it differently if they've watched both players.

 

[BondraTime]

Bouchard's hockey sense is far superior to Dobson's. It's like 2 tiers away if you're grouping defensemen by that metric. It's hard to imagine how someone could see it differently if they've watched both players.

It really isn't, I've heard from actual NHL scouts, so this doesn't fly at all.

 

[DJB]

These two will forever be compared. Shall be interesting how the draft goes.

Both have excellent hockey sense. Hard to argue one is significantly better than the other.

 

[Habs76]

Bouchard's hockey sense is far superior to Dobson's. It's like 2 tiers away if you're grouping defensemen by that metric. It's hard to imagine how someone could see it differently if they've watched both players.

Wut

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

So this entire thread has been predicated on the idea that Dobson is a lot better on his feet than Bouchard. Maybe that's not so clear-cut now? We have two separate data points: first, in terms of straight-line speed, the two were fairly close at the top prospects game test. And now, we can see that the two had almost identical times on the agility test at the combine, and both doing quite well. (Dobson with 4.4 for left, and 4.6 for right, and Bouchard for 4.5 left and 4.6 right)

I mean, skating is obviously different from running an agility route, but might the mobility criticism be overrated? It seems like to maintain that Bouchard is slow, you'd have to say that it's not his actual feet, it's his skating technique.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

So this entire thread has been predicated on the idea that Dobson is a lot better on his feet than Bouchard. Maybe that's not so clear-cut now? We have two separate data points: first, in terms of straight-line speed, the two were fairly close at the top prospects game test. And now, we can see that the two had almost identical times on the agility test at the combine, and both doing quite well. (Dobson with 4.4 for left, and 4.6 for right, and Bouchard for 4.5 left and 4.6 right)

I mean, skating is obviously different from running an agility route, but might the mobility criticism be overrated? It seems like to maintain that Bouchard is slow, you'd have to say that it's not his actual feet, it's his skating technique.

I hope he is on the board when Detroit picks

 

[Tatar Shots]

So this entire thread has been predicated on the idea that Dobson is a lot better on his feet than Bouchard. Maybe that's not so clear-cut now? We have two separate data points: first, in terms of straight-line speed, the two were fairly close at the top prospects game test. And now, we can see that the two had almost identical times on the agility test at the combine, and both doing quite well. (Dobson with 4.4 for left, and 4.6 for right, and Bouchard for 4.5 left and 4.6 right)

I mean, skating is obviously different from running an agility route, but might the mobility criticism be overrated? It seems like to maintain that Bouchard is slow, you'd have to say that it's not his actual feet, it's his skating technique.

Bouchard’s skating agility has always been very good. He is criticized for not having a high top end speed and not consistently skating hard (also a debate on whether this is an intensity issue or him conserving energy because he is tasked with playing so much). In terms of making subtle movements to avoid an attacker or position himself to receive a pass, Bouchard is quite proficient.

 

[cbtitan]

I can see that most mock drafts now are in line with this poll on Dobson which is top-5.
I hope they are right because he deserves it.

 

[TT1]

Brown: A data-driven comparison of Evan Bouchard and Noah...

Great article if you have The Athletic. This writer certainly has some stats that we don't. A TL;DR of sorts: the article is broken down into transition, shooting, playmaking, and defense. One section was a tie, Bouchard won two sections, and Dobson won one. The article has Bouchard ahead overall by a hair.

That's nice and all but drafting is about projecting, you look at a prospect and their skillset and try to envision how well they're going to transition into the NHL. As a prospect Dobson is the complete package and he still hasn't finished maturing yet, the guy is super lanky, he can still add a ton of strength.

No knock on Bouchard, i think he's a good prospect but i see Dobson being a true #1 all around minute munching dman at the next level (Doughty/Pie-esque impact dman), whereas Bouchard projects more as a Carlson-esque dman.

 

[Winston Wolf]

Bouchard's hockey sense is far superior to Dobson's. It's like 2 tiers away if you're grouping defensemen by that metric. It's hard to imagine how someone could see it differently if they've watched both players.

This reminds me of two years ago when you went on and on about Juolevi being tiers above Provorov, who would be lucky to be a top 4 defenseman one day.

 

[docbenton]

This reminds me of two years ago when you went on and on about Juolevi being tiers above Provorov, who would be lucky to be a top 4 defenseman one day.

Provorov has taken big strides. There was a video about how hard he trained over the summers along with Sergachev. Juolevi was the better prospect at that point in time, and he hasn't made the same strides. It remains to be seen what he will be, but he has the superior hockey sense and puck-moving ability. If Dobson can make similarly big strides as Provorov he'll be a great player, but compared to Bouchard he's got a long way to go. Unlike pro scouts most of us are not privy to details about player's habits and drive to improve.

Anything is possible with young players, they are volatile like that. Dominant players can fizzle out, and non-descript players can become stars. Anthony DeAngelo is a good example, he was one of the most dominant junior players I'd ever seen in his D+1 year, he could skate and dangle through an entire team, do a lap and repeat, on top of that had the puck the whole game, it wasn't like he was turning it over a lot. Now he can't even score in the AHL.