Proposal: Bottom line guys do we believe Krug is a #1D?

[Winger98]

Do I think the usage you described would be sensible for Krug? Yes.
But do I then think that the contract required to get him here would have been sensible for a player with that usage? No.

I don't know what kind of guy you're expecting to sign for just 8% of the cap then. His contract is pretty similar to guys like Ryan Ellis, Erik Johnson, and Tyler Myers. Guys who can go out, play 20-22 minutes, and have some pretty clear strengths and weaknesses.

I think that St. Louis basically dropped themselves from true contender status by swapping Pietrangelo, a true #1 all situations defenseman to Krug, a PP specialist. All to save what, a couple million dollars per year?

Can Justin Faulk be better? Maybe, and I think this is the biggest variable. I like the talent level but there's some games he makes Madison Bowey level mistakes.

I don't think Colton Parayko is as good as he's made out to be on these boards. Playing with Bouwmeester helped him considerably and they worked well as a pair. After Bouwmeester went down I wasn't too impressed with Parayko's overall play. It's like the Lidstrom effect to a lesser degree; anyone, even Dandeneault, looked good playing with him. Bouwmeester became a really steady guy defensively in Calgary and St. Louis and I think he elevated Parayko more than the other way around.

I wouldn't be surprised to see St. Louis being considerably worse defensively and finishing as a 5-8 team in the Western Conference for the next couple of years because of this move.

Here might be an unpopular opinion but maybe St. Louis was never really a consistent contender with or without Pietrangelo.

Tampa is really the only team in the league that I look at and see a consistent Cup contender, nearly regardless of what they still do this summer. Everyone else...yeah, playoff teams. If they make it in, anything can happen, because the league is pretty flat at the top. goalie gets hot, your star gets hot, and you can make a run. Someone goes cold...well, good luck with that.

 

[jkutswings]

I don't know what kind of guy you're expecting to sign for just 8% of the cap then. His contract is pretty similar to guys like Ryan Ellis, Erik Johnson, and Tyler Myers. Guys who can go out, play 20-22 minutes, and have some pretty clear strengths and weaknesses.

Part of it is that I don't think Detroit could have landed Krug for the same deal he signed with the Blues. And part of it is that, even at the same money, I think Krug performs better in St Louis than Detroit based on who's around him (even with specific usage).

 

[Winger98]

This is a fair point. I'll admit I didn't read the poll question, just the thread title.

What I'm hearing is that you'd see Krug as a specialist, in which case...

I have a hard time seeing a guy eating 20-22 minutes a night as a specialist. I mean, I guess if something crazy like 5-7 minutes of it was special teams, maybe? But at that ice time, Krug is still likely seeing 18-2o minutes at ES every night. If Krug could be considered a specialist then so could Dekeyser, and I have a hard time seeing it like that.

Dekeyser got just under 7% of the cap when he signed, is Krug worth 1% more? I think so, and I think if you're looking to sign a guy - especially in UFA - that's a level we're just going to have to be comfortable with. Unless we want to keep signing the Merrils of the world.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I don't know what kind of guy you're expecting to sign for just 8% of the cap then. His contract is pretty similar to guys like Ryan Ellis, Erik Johnson, and Tyler Myers. Guys who can go out, play 20-22 minutes, and have some pretty clear strengths and weaknesses.



Here might be an unpopular opinion but maybe St. Louis was never really a consistent contender with or without Pietrangelo.

Tampa is really the only team in the league that I look at and see a consistent Cup contender, nearly regardless of what they still do this summer. Everyone else...yeah, playoff teams. If they make it in, anything can happen, because the league is pretty flat at the top. goalie gets hot, your star gets hot, and you can make a run. Someone goes cold...well, good luck with that.

I think with Pietrangelo STL was a top 6 team in the league. From 2011 to 2016 they were a 100+ point team (60 in 48 during the lockout) and were on pace for about 108 last season before COVID. They've been solid if unspectacular for a while now.
After losing Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester, then adding Krug I think they're somewhere between the 8th and 12th best team in the league.

 

[Winger98]

Part of it is that I don't think Detroit could have landed Krug for the same deal he signed with the Blues. And part of it is that, even at the same money, I think Krug performs better in St Louis than Detroit based on who's around him (even with specific usage).

I don't know what we would have had to pay Krug. Maybe $500K more? That adds up to, what, $3m over the contract? Not chump change to play at home instead of st. Louis. And I agree, I think he probably puts up better numbers in St. Louis and looks better down there than in Detroit, at least right now (though if Tarasenko isn't the same from his injury, a lot of bets are off). But I also think he makes our power play look a lot better, and guys like larkin, Mantha, zadina, Bert, etc. look a lot better. And I think it does a lot of good for our guys to play with legitimately better players on a nightly basis.

Pretty much anyone we sign right now isn't going to look great with us (part of the reason I think the enthusiasm for what Ryan could produce here is a big overblown) but that shouldn't stop us from going out and getting the best legitimate upgrade we can when it can be made to work with short and long term goals. And I think Krug could have done that. I think guys like Tanev could have done it. I think we missed an opportunity this summer.

 

[jkutswings]

I don't know what we would have had to pay Krug. Maybe $500K more? That adds up to, what, $3m over the contract? Not chump change to play at home instead of st. Louis. And I agree, I think he probably puts up better numbers in St. Louis and looks better down there than in Detroit, at least right now (though if Tarasenko isn't the same from his injury, a lot of bets are off). But I also think he makes our power play look a lot better, and guys like larkin, Mantha, zadina, Bert, etc. look a lot better. And I think it does a lot of good for our guys to play with legitimately better players on a nightly basis.

Pretty much anyone we sign right now isn't going to look great with us (part of the reason I think the enthusiasm for what Ryan could produce here is a big overblown) but that shouldn't stop us from going out and getting the best legitimate upgrade we can when it can be made to work with short and long term goals. And I think Krug could have done that. I think guys like Tanev could have done it. I think we missed an opportunity this summer.

If Krug would've played here for only $500k more per year, that's an interesting conversation to have. I just think he would've been insane to play for the Wings at $7M vs the Blues at $6.5M, but I can't speak to his priorities versus mine.

 

[Martinez]

St. Louis messed up big time, I don’t blame them for bringing in Faulk. The cap didn’t go up which screwed them but they totally could have cleared cap like Vegas did. To lose their best player to probably their biggest threat in the west is unacceptable.

 

[Winger98]

I think with Pietrangelo STL was a top 6 team in the league. From 2011 to 2016 they were a 100+ point team (60 in 48 during the lockout) and were on pace for about 108 last season before COVID. They've been solid if unspectacular for a while now.
After losing Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester, then adding Krug I think they're somewhere between the 8th and 12th best team in the league.

That's sort of my point. Where would you put SJ in that time? Boston? Washington? Tampa? etc. How many of those teams in your top6 in those years do you see being clear favorites for the cup over the other teams in that top6? Or top10? In that top10-13 teams there is a lot of "solid if unspectacular" play. Some of the names might change, but as a group there isn't a lot of "whoa, this team is way better" outside of Tampa.

And I don't think the Wings are crazy far that top third of the league.