Value of: Bonino to Colorado

[Boondock]

If we traded him right now you would have him for the whole reason, so it wouldn't really be a true rental.

Coleman is an comparison, since he and Bonino are both centers and they scored at a comparable pace (44 points in 82 for Coleman, 42 in 82 for Bonino). Coleman did have 2 years left on his contract when he was traded. Coleman is also 2.5 years younger than Bonino. Tampa gave up the 20th overall and Nolan Foote for him, which is a pretty valuable package and I don't think we would expected something similar for Bonino.

Goodrow is another playoffs+following season deal, and he was worth the 31st overall (although Tampa got a 3rd back too). Bonino scores a lot more than Goodrow and plays a more important position too.

I think low 1st (with us potentially sending a pick back) or a 2nd+ would be fair.

The biggest difference with Coleman and Goodrow is that they both had 1.3 seasons left so there is value in that playoff push and they have very low cap hits. Yes Bonino contributes similar points to Coleman, but Coleman's cap hit is less than half of Bonino's and Goodrow is 1/4 the cap hit. Combined Coleman and Goodrow make $2.725 this season compared to Bonino's $4.1. For a cap team like the Lightning some of the value they perceived was the low contract. I don't see a 32 year old owed high end 3rd line C money getting a 1st.

 

[McJedi]

My guess pick 24 is the ask and the avs say no

Let me counter this. Bonino (no retention) and 37th OA overall for 24 OA.

preds also have 42 OA pick.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Let me counter this. Bonino (no retention) and 37th OA overall for 24 OA.

preds also have 42 OA pick.

No, you'd still have to take out the 37th OA, and then you'd still run away screaming. That part doesn't change. You want Bonino, the cost is the 24th. You get to say "no f'ing way" to that cost. But that's the cost.

 

[McJedi]

No, you'd still have to take out the 37th OA, and then you'd still run away screaming. That part doesn't change. You want Bonino, the cost is the 24th. You get to say "no f'ing way" to that cost. But that's the cost.

I wouldn’t swear. I’d just say no. And that’s that.

Avs have a ton of cap space and options. Preds have some bad contracts on their books. Just let them run back that same non contender given their lack of roster flexibility.

 

[Gurglesons]

To Colorado
Bonny ($2,050,000 retained)
37th pick

To Nashville:
2021 1st
Jost

I think this deal without retention is fair. I also think if the Avs wait they probably can get Bonino for the 1st at the deadline and who cares because the central is a mess and they should easily make the playoffs.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I wouldn’t swear. I’d just say no. And that’s that.

Avs have a ton of cap space and options. Preds have some bad contracts on their books. Just let them run back that same non contender given their lack of roster flexibility.

Well, we have 1 bad contract anyway. And if we run out a non-contender again, that's got nothing to do with Bonino, who is probably the one forward on our team that stood out as contender-level at his position last season. Moving Bonino would address nothing that plagues the Preds right now. Losing him will only make things worse.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Let me counter this. Bonino (no retention) and 37th OA overall for 24 OA.

preds also have 42 OA pick.

Preds still say no

 

[thefutures]

Well, we have 1 bad contract anyway. And if we run out a non-contender again, that's got nothing to do with Bonino, who is probably the one forward on our team that stood out as contender-level at his position last season. Moving Bonino would address nothing that plagues the Preds right now. Losing him will only make things worse.

"You don't like my offer? Well your team sucks!"

 

[Boondock]

No, you'd still have to take out the 37th OA, and then you'd still run away screaming. That part doesn't change. You want Bonino, the cost is the 24th. You get to say "no f'ing way" to that cost. But that's the cost.

If Nashville management has this same attitude they will be a middling non-relevant team for the foreseeable future.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If Nashville management has this same attitude they will be a middling non-relevant team for the foreseeable future.

Because moving 13 spots in the draft order from 37 to 24 is going to help us win more than having an elite 3C who everybody seems to want is going to, right? OF course.

The team is still probably going to be a middling non-relevant team for the foreseeable future anyway. Nobody denies that. Just it has nothing to do with Bonino. We could get 2 1st rounders for him, or we could lose him for nothing as a UFA next summer, and it still doesn't move the needle on that front either way, so I don't see how it's really relevant to point out how much we suck. Thanks for being a big meanie about it, though.

 

[GoldOnGold]

The biggest difference with Coleman and Goodrow is that they both had 1.3 seasons left so there is value in that playoff push and they have very low cap hits. Yes Bonino contributes similar points to Coleman, but Coleman's cap hit is less than half of Bonino's and Goodrow is 1/4 the cap hit. Combined Coleman and Goodrow make $2.725 this season compared to Bonino's $4.1. For a cap team like the Lightning some of the value they perceived was the low contract. I don't see a 32 year old owed high end 3rd line C money getting a 1st.

I would think we would retain if we were to trade him, so that cap hit could be made ~$2 million.

 

[GoldOnGold]

If Nashville management has this same attitude they will be a middling non-relevant team for the foreseeable future.

So if we don't make a bad trade we'll be a middling team lol?

 

[Boondock]

Because moving 13 spots in the draft order from 37 to 24 is going to help us win more than having an elite 3C who everybody seems to want is going to, right? OF course.

The team is still probably going to be a middling non-relevant team for the foreseeable future anyway. Nobody denies that. Just it has nothing to do with Bonino. We could get 2 1st rounders for him, or we could lose him for nothing as a UFA next summer, and it still doesn't move the needle on that front either way, so I don't see how it's really relevant to point out how much we suck. Thanks for being a big meanie about it, though.

With 4 C's making a combined 26+ million, a depleted prospect pool and only $8million in cap space to re-sign and improve the team, trading Bonino and a 2nd for a 1st reduces cap hit and provides a pick with a significantly better percentage of being an impact NHL player. Would this alone make the Preds a contender again, no - but keeping NB and losing him for nothing, or keeping him until the deadline where teams could have another 8 months of covid financial reality and maybe getting a 1st isn't a big win for the Preds either. I would try to move Turris first, but he probably requires other assets or an equal contract in order to move so little chance of improvement. Bonino for the OP would at least start the re-tool in Nashville, reduce cap and add a prospect via the 24th pick. I would also think NB and the 42 for the 24 would be a better deal.

 

[Boondock]

So if we don't make a bad trade we'll be a middling team lol?

I don't see it as a bad trade given the Preds cap situation, prospect pool and on ice product.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

With 4 C's making a combined 26+ million, a depleted prospect pool and only $8million in cap space to re-sign and improve the team, trading Bonino and a 2nd for a 1st reduces cap hit and provides a pick with a significantly better percentage of being an impact NHL player. Would this alone make the Preds a contender again, no - but keeping NB and losing him for nothing, or keeping him until the deadline where teams could have another 8 months of covid financial reality and maybe getting a 1st isn't a big win for the Preds either. I would try to move Turris first, but he probably requires other assets or an equal contract in order to move so little chance of improvement. Bonino for the OP would at least start the re-tool in Nashville, reduce cap and add a prospect via the 24th pick. I would also think NB and the 42 for the 24 would be a better deal.

We have about $5.4M in cap space with a default lineup, and I suspect we just sit on that and pinch every penny. If we had even more cap space... that doesn't advantage us as I doubt the team is going to look to spend any of it on improving. The difference between 24 and 37 is minimal. We can probably pick our 24th-ranked player at #37, given the variance of draft lists in that range. I could do a 3rd and Bonino for #24, though, no retention.

 

[Boondock]

We have about $5.4M in cap space with a default lineup, and I suspect we just sit on that and pinch every penny. If we had even more cap space... that doesn't advantage us as I doubt the team is going to look to spend any of it on improving. The difference between 24 and 37 is minimal. We can probably pick our 24th-ranked player at #37, given the variance of draft lists in that range. I could do a 3rd and Bonino for #24, though, no retention.

The probability of a player drafted around 24th playing 100 NHL games is about 65% by the 2nd round that probability decreases to about 30% - I would say that the difference between 24 and 37 is bigger than you are indicating.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The probability of a player drafted around 24th playing 100 NHL games is about 65% by the 2nd round that probability decreases to about 30% - I would say that the difference between 24 and 37 is bigger than you are indicating.

It's approximately the difference between Jonathan Blum and Roman Josi the way our drafts go. But fair enough, we've agreed to disagree. You'll not be getting Bonino from me, and I'll not be getting the #24 pick from you, and we'll both just have to live with that if we can.

 

[BigFatCat999]

How about Donskoi for Bonino?

EDIT: OOOOOOOh....that's why people want Bonino. His SALARY is 2.7 mil for a cap of 4.1 mil

 

[Boondock]

It's approximately the difference between Jonathan Blum and Roman Josi the way our drafts go. But fair enough, we've agreed to disagree. You'll not be getting Bonino from me, and I'll not be getting the #24 pick from you, and we'll both just have to live with that if we can.

Sure there are outliers, but facts point to a discrepancy - I'm also not an Avs fan.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

How about 2020 4th and 2021 2nd?

 

[McJedi]

I think this deal without retention is fair. I also think if the Avs wait they probably can get Bonino for the 1st at the deadline and who cares because the central is a mess and they should easily make the playoffs.

A 2021 1st sounds better. Not. Bad idea.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

If we add a 3C and move Compher to RW, where does Kaut play? Is he relegated to Bellemare's line, unless he can outplay Compher?

Kuat would be relegated to Nashville

 

[GoldOnGold]

I don't see it as a bad trade given the Preds cap situation, prospect pool and on ice product.

I think Bonino is exactly the type of player that teams value, especially at the deadline, and I think a late 1st in exchange for Bonino (with maybe a small plus, a 3rd perhaps) is a fair and very attainable deal.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Something else to consider... teams which are borderline for the playoffs - like Nashville could be, at least if everything goes well in the coming season - will probably have a very large financial incentive to actually MAKE the playoffs next season. Larger than usual, anyway. Assuming there is at least potential for gate revenue in the playoffs, possibly at a nice markup with high demand, they will very much want to get those gates to help make up for the losses over the previous year. So keeping Bonino to aid in that pursuit may be additionally attractive.

It's also worth noting that the Preds already paid him $1.7M on July 1st. So that's water under the bridge already and he only costs us $2.4M the rest of the coming season.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Kuat would be relegated to Nashville

Kaut is a 20 year old, 2018 1st rounder who looked good in the 9 games he played this season, and still has 3 years left on his ELC. Those ELC years make him much more valuable to the Avs than 1 year of a 3C.