Value of: Bonino to Colorado

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
19,159
20,755
:avs :nashville

What would Nashville want from Colorado for Bonino (with/without retention)?


Four points worth noting:

  • Bonino is 32 and is coming off a season where he scored at 42 point pace:

upload_2020-9-20_23-50-39.png


  • He has 1 year on his current contract with a $4.1m caphit, albeit with only $2.4m in real salary.

upload_2020-9-20_23-48-46.png


  • Nashville currently spend $26.1m on 4 centers (Johansen $8m, Duchene $8m, Turris $6m, and Bonino $4.1m).
  • “So it’s very clear to me that we need to make some changes,” Poile said. “It was very clear to me as we played `19-’20 season that we needed to make some changes.”
  • “All I can say and will say at this time that all options are on the table to make our team better for the `20-’21 season,” Poile said.
 

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
19,159
20,755
From Colorado's perspective, the 3rd line was rather poor in the playoffs, with Bednar repeatedly mentioning in postgame press conferences how he wanted more from a group of middle 6 forwards. As such 3C is likely one of the primary focuses this offseason. Compher is ok at 3C but his north-south game is much better suited to RW.

With Newhook and Bowers both ~1 year away from the NHL it might not make sense to acquire someone with term at 3C as that would block their opportunities from 2021 onwards, but a guy with 1 year term like Bonino would be a good short-term solution.

2020/212021/222022/23
1CMackinnonMackinnonMackinnon
2CKadriKadriNewhook
3CBonino?NewhookBowers
4CBellemareBowers/UFA 4cUFA 4C
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Bringer of Jollity

Registered User
Oct 20, 2011
12,828
7,870
Fontana, CA
Was our most consistent forward last season and the only one of our centers to play to his potential/role. Not sure what I'd want from Colorado but it would need to be pretty good value for a team still looking to be competitive if we're going to bolster a division opponent (e.g. no reason to do it for lower picks or random trash you want to trade anyway).
 
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IWantSakicAsMyGM

Registered User
Oct 13, 2011
9,718
3,934
Colorado
From Colorado's perspective, the 3rd line was rather poor in the playoffs, with Bednar repeatedly mentioning in postgame press conferences how he wanted more from a group of middle 6 forwards. As such 3C is likely one of the primary focuses this offseason. Compher is ok at 3C but his north-south game is much better suited to RW.

With Newhook and Bowers both ~1 year away from the NHL it might not make sense to acquire someone with term at 3C as that would block their opportunities from 2021 onwards, but a guy with 1 year term like Bonino would be a good short-term solution.

2020/212021/222022/23
1CMackinnonMackinnonMackinnon
2CKadriKadriNewhook
3CBonino?NewhookBowers
4CBellemareBowers/UFA 4cUFA 4C
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If we add a 3C and move Compher to RW, where does Kaut play? Is he relegated to Bellemare's line, unless he can outplay Compher?
 

GoldOnGold

Registered User
Mar 27, 2016
5,624
3,252
Nashville, Tennessee
Easy no for a 1 year 32year old 3rd line center rental
More along the lines of a 2nd at most

If we traded him right now you would have him for the whole reason, so it wouldn't really be a true rental.

Coleman is an comparison, since he and Bonino are both centers and they scored at a comparable pace (44 points in 82 for Coleman, 42 in 82 for Bonino). Coleman did have 2 years left on his contract when he was traded. Coleman is also 2.5 years younger than Bonino. Tampa gave up the 20th overall and Nolan Foote for him, which is a pretty valuable package and I don't think we would expected something similar for Bonino.

Goodrow is another playoffs+following season deal, and he was worth the 31st overall (although Tampa got a 3rd back too). Bonino scores a lot more than Goodrow and plays a more important position too.

I think low 1st (with us potentially sending a pick back) or a 2nd+ would be fair.
 

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
19,159
20,755
If we add a 3C and move Compher to RW, where does Kaut play? Is he relegated to Bellemare's line, unless he can outplay Compher?
Kaut would start off on the 4th line but also have time on PP2 and on the PK to get his minutes up. Similar to Nichuskin last year I think there's a good chance he could play his way up the lineup as the season goes along as well.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Compher was traded if we bring in another 3C, especially if we also bring in a top 6 forward.
 

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
19,159
20,755
If we traded him right now you would have him for the whole reason, so it wouldn't really be a true rental.

Coleman is an comparison, since he and Bonino are both centers and they scored at a comparable pace (44 points in 82 for Coleman, 42 in 82 for Bonino). Coleman did have 2 years left on his contract when he was traded. Coleman is also 2.5 years younger than Bonino. Tampa gave up the 20th overall and Nolan Foote for him, which is a pretty valuable package and I don't think we would expected something similar for Bonino.

Goodrow is another playoffs+following season deal, and he was worth the 31st overall (although Tampa got a 3rd back too). Bonino scores a lot more than Goodrow and plays a more important position too.

I think low 1st (with us potentially sending a pick back) or a 2nd+ would be fair.
Coleman and Goodman aren't perfect comparables imo. Their high trade values were largely due to their extremely low caphits ($1.8m x 2 years and $925k x 1 year, respectively) which made them unique assets on the trade market. They were also traded in a strong sellers market, whereas this offseason is very much a buyers market.

As you mentioned Tampa will also have 2 playoff runs with Coleman at that low caphit.

A 2nd+ probably isn't far off Bonino's value, with the value of the "+" being dependent on if there is any retention.

A $4.1m contract is a pretty substantial in this current flap cap climate, but get that down a bit and Nashville could probably ask for a nice + in the deal, or maybe even a late 1st if it's close to 50% retained ($2.05m x 1 year).

The fact that Nashville have already paid $1.7m of his $4.1m (in signing bonuses) means that they'd only have to fork out an additional $350k in real cash to retain 50% (along with $2.05m in capspace), so if they're not planning on being a cap ceiling team that would be a pretty shrewd way of maximizing his trade value.
 
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Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
Jun 14, 2017
14,876
11,256
My guess pick 24 is the ask and the avs say no
This is bang on. We have no need to trade Bonino. He was our most reliable forward all year, and for a team that really needs some leadership and examples, he's an invaluable member of the team. For now, anyway.

But his contract is expiring and there's no guarantee we'll be able to retain him past next season. Or that if the next season shows that we need to rebuild, then he's a logical player to trade... at the trade deadline. That's when the value of a good veteran player is at a premium relative to draft picks... not now, a couple weeks before the draft when every team is fantasizing about how to use their picks.

Just take Bonino at the deadline for your expected-to-be-#31-pick in 2021. That's when the deal will make more sense, for both sides.
 
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IWantSakicAsMyGM

Registered User
Oct 13, 2011
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Colorado
Kaut would start off on the 4th line but also have time on PP2 and on the PK to get his minutes up. Similar to Nichuskin last year I think there's a good chance he could play his way up the lineup as the season goes along as well.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Compher was traded if we bring in another 3C, especially if we also bring in a top 6 forward.

My concern is that in order for Kaut to play his way up the lineup, someone like Compher or Donskoi will end up on Bellemare's line, which isn't necessarily a bad things, but I don't think spending $3.5m on a 4th liner is a great use of cap space.

I would be very surprised if Compher is traded, since he's the only forward on the team who averaged 2 minutes per game on both the PK and the PP. That versatility makes him hard to replace. There's options for the PP time, but who covers on the PK? Not sure I like the idea of relying on a rookie Kaut to take those minutes, and a 1 year guy like Bonino is more of a band-aid than a long term plan. And, we're already most likely losing Nieto to UFA, so trying to add 2 quality PKing forwards, while also adding a top 6 forward and a 3C and our deserving rookies, seems like a difficult thing to try to pull off.
 

Patagonia

Keep Whining
Jan 6, 2017
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COL is unlikely to offer much for a 3C player that is overpaid, aging and coming from a down season. He's only a rental. Sakic is likely waiting for an influx of unprotected players being dumped for the Expansion Draft.
 
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GoldOnGold

Registered User
Mar 27, 2016
5,624
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Nashville, Tennessee
Coleman and Goodman aren't perfect comparables imo. Their high trade values were largely due to their extremely low caphits ($1.8m x 2 years and $925k x 1 year, respectively) which made them unique assets on the trade market. They were also traded in a strong sellers market, whereas this offseason is very much a buyers market.

As you mentioned Tampa will also have 2 playoff runs with Coleman at that low caphit.

A 2nd+ probably isn't far off Bonino's value, with the value of the "+" being dependent on if there is any retention.

A $4.1m contract is a pretty substantial in this current flap cap climate, but get that down a bit and Nashville could probably ask for a nice + in the deal, or maybe even a late 1st if it's close to 50% retained ($2.05m x 1 year).

The fact that Nashville have already paid $1.7m of his $4.1m (in signing bonuses) means that they'd only have to fork out an additional $350k in real cash to retain 50% (along with $2.05m in capspace), so if they're not planning on being a cap ceiling team that would be a pretty shrewd way of maximizing his trade value.

You make some fair points, especially regards cap hits. If we were to trade Bonino before the season starts (which IMO is unlikely), I think we would definitely be willing to retain 50% to maximize our trade return. The only way I see that not happening is if our ownership group is really struggling financially and just wanted to save some cash.
 
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Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
Jun 14, 2017
14,876
11,256
COL is unlikely to offer much for a 3C player that is overpaid, aging and coming from a down season. He's only a rental. Sakic is likely waiting for an influx of unprotected players being dumped for the Expansion Draft.
He's not overpaid or coming off a down season, though. He just had a great season, and was totally worth his cap hit. I'd ideally like to see the Preds re-sign him for 3 more seasons at the same salary.

You can choose not to want him, or not to want to pay a 1st rounder for him anyway, and that's totally reasonable. But don't mistake how good he is.
 
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Em etah Eh

Maroon PP
Jul 17, 2007
3,078
1,488
Whatever the ask is, shave a round off the pick and you can have Bozak (pending Petro re-signing)...
 

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