Bob Murray/Ducks Management Discussion

[KelVarnsen]

Look at the salaries getting thrown to UFA's.

I get that but the decision to give a 2 year one way deal to an AHL player is still an interesting decision to say the least.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Whoa. I did forget about Montour. But what is this $5 mil for Manson that you're talking about, Willis??? Manson will be making more than Vatanen?! Are you mental about that?! The max Manson would probably make might be $3.75 a year. He isn't on Fowler level to be awarded a $4 mil contract per year.

I'm not seeing a huge payday for Ritchie or Kase.

We're gonna have to rely on some young prospects on the cheap or veterans playing on the cheap.

Is our AHL salary part of the NHL salary? I don't think it's part of the budget.

We have some center prospects that can join the team in 2018 on ELC.

There's $18 mil for 2018-19 season and no bonafide stars that will demand a high AAV. In 2019-20, there will only be $10 mil more to play with for Gibson and Silfverberg. So it's imperative that Bob does some creative contracts for 2018-19 to prepare for 2019-20.

I think Manson asks for at least what Despres got, and then more, as he's more proven and the Cap has gone up. Despres got 3.7, I can't see Manson getting less than 4. The Cap was 63.4M when Fowler got that contract, and it was for 4 years - he didn't have a bridge. Manson is coming off of his "show me" bridge and will expect to be paid, as he's shown us.

Ritchie had 14G 14A 28P, then 4 more goals in the playoffs. Rakell had 9G 22A 31P and 1G in his second year. It's hardly a stretch to see Ritchie hitting 20/40 this year, so look to the Rakell contract as a possible match. Obviously not a guarantee, but certainly a possibility.

Agreed that Kase won't be looking at much of a raise.

AHL salary doesn't count towards the Cap unless the NHL salary is above the league minimum salary + 375K (950K last year).

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

I get that but the decision to give a 2 year one way deal to an AHL player is still an interesting decision to say the least.

AHL guys have been kind of quietly improving their position for a while now. I still think he could've gotten other guys on two way deals, others were obviously signed, but their cost has been rising for a bit. Megna, coming off his ELC, got a big guarantee to keep it a two way.

Could also be about keeping their NHL money down, but thats just me speculating.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I get that but the decision to give a 2 year one way deal to an AHL player is still an interesting decision to say the least.

My guess is to have some grit that won't get taken off of waivers. There's zero chance he makes more than league minimum. I dunno. Maybe he's very good at the AHL level?

 

[Sojourn]

I think Manson asks for at least what Despres got, and then more, as he's more proven and the Cap has gone up. Despres got 3.7, I can't see Manson getting less than 4. The Cap was 63.4M when Fowler got that contract, and it was for 4 years - he didn't have a bridge. Manson is coming off of his "show me" bridge and will expect to be paid, as he's shown us.

I mostly agree with this, but with some additional comments:

Despres is a good comparable to me, in that he's where I'd start making those comparisons. Despres was signed to 3.7, and in my opinion he had proven less(that part made me a little nervous at the time), but I think there was more perceived upside in Despres' game. I doubt that factors in to Manson at all, because his body of work in Anaheim is much bigger, but some GM's pay for potential and I really felt that factored into Despres' contract.

Realistically, I'm expecting it to start at $4M, unless Manson is feeling really generous. Some guys are like that, but $4M seems a good place to start.

But, I really don't think his realistic ceiling is much higher than $4M. The highest I'm expecting to see is $5M, and more likely I think $4.5M is where it ends up. The big reason for that is that he just doesn't have the offensive numbers to punch up the number, and he's a sub-20 minute defenseman. He gives you very good quality in those minutes, but he's pretty consistently in the 18-minute range. Those are two big factors that I think will be part of the negotiating process. Bigger minutes, and better production could go a long way in bumping the contract numbers up.

 

[snarktacular]

Did he get 5.5-6 million long term?

No, but that's not the part of your statement that I was questioning, was it?

As if 3/3 was a normal UFA contract for players who can be reasonably expected to put up 20g/45p. In reality, those players get long term deals at 5.5-6 million per.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

He has to get a third line center, Vermette wont cut it and after Keslers surgery I'm not counting on a rookie to pick up the slack.

While Bob did clean up his self inflicted salary mess we also lost an asset in Theodore that could've helped fill another hole.

 

[Opak]

I think Manson asks for at least what Despres got, and then more, as he's more proven and the Cap has gone up. Despres got 3.7, I can't see Manson getting less than 4. The Cap was 63.4M when Fowler got that contract, and it was for 4 years - he didn't have a bridge. Manson is coming off of his "show me" bridge and will expect to be paid, as he's shown us.

Ritchie had 14G 14A 28P, then 4 more goals in the playoffs. Rakell had 9G 22A 31P and 1G in his second year. It's hardly a stretch to see Ritchie hitting 20/40 this year, so look to the Rakell contract as a possible match. Obviously not a guarantee, but certainly a possibility.

Agreed that Kase won't be looking at much of a raise.

AHL salary doesn't count towards the Cap unless the NHL salary is above the league minimum salary + 375K (950K last year).

I mostly agree with this, but with some additional comments:

Despres is a good comparable to me, in that he's where I'd start making those comparisons. Despres was signed to 3.7, and in my opinion he had proven less(that part made me a little nervous at the time), but I think there was more perceived upside in Despres' game. I doubt that factors in to Manson at all, because his body of work in Anaheim is much bigger, but some GM's pay for potential and I really felt that factored into Despres' contract.

Realistically, I'm expecting it to start at $4M, unless Manson is feeling really generous. Some guys are like that, but $4M seems a good place to start.

But, I really don't think his realistic ceiling is much higher than $4M. The highest I'm expecting to see is $5M, and more likely I think $4.5M is where it ends up. The big reason for that is that he just doesn't have the offensive numbers to punch up the number, and he's a sub-20 minute defenseman. He gives you very good quality in those minutes, but he's pretty consistently in the 18-minute range. Those are two big factors that I think will be part of the negotiating process. Bigger minutes, and better production could go a long way in bumping the contract numbers up.

I mostly agree with these. Manson will most likely get a good chunk of money when his deal is up, and Ritchie has the potential of putting up 20 goals this year (already had 14), which would give him a case to get paid Rakell type money. Maybe slightly less, if he doesn't hit 40 points, but there's a good chance we're not going to get him signed for peanuts.

A lot of people are sleeping on Kase, IMO. 15 points in 53 games (23 over 82 games) is pretty decent for a rookie. If he stays healthy and continues to improve, he could very well get 30 points over 82 games. I imagine Bob will give him a "max term" bridge deal, but the AAV could be a bit higher than anticipated.

I have no idea what we do with Montour. He's 24 when his ELC is up, so to maintain his RFA status, we'd have to sign him to a 1-year bridge. That doesn't achieve anything IMO, so we're most likely looking at another Despres situation, where we're mostly paying a player for their potential.

He has to get a third line center, Vermette wont cut it and after Keslers surgery I'm not counting on a rookie to pick up the slack.

While Bob did clean up his self inflicted salary mess we also lost an asset in Theodore that could've helped fill another hole.

I also agree with this. I do not want to see post-surgery Kesler playing 24 minutes a night. We were fortunate last year that Getz and Kesler were able to handle their roles, I'd rather not take another gamble with them. One of them gets hurt (*knocks on wood*), we're ****ed. Plain and simple.

 

[pbgoalie]

If all the young guys have good enough seasons to create contract issues, we should have a heck of a season!! Get those deals guys!!

 

[Hockey Duckie]

He has to get a third line center, Vermette wont cut it and after Keslers surgery I'm not counting on a rookie to pick up the slack.

While Bob did clean up his self inflicted salary mess we also lost an asset in Theodore that could've helped fill another hole.

blink, blink

ummm... losing one of your top 3 defensemen to the VGK and keeping theodore for trade bait doesn't make a lot of sense. just keep theo since vat's salary would go to VGK.

but overall, I'm lost with your comment about losing an asset in Theo. The whole league was set to lose assets. We're no different in that capacity.

 

[Theridion]

blink, blink

ummm... losing one of your top 3 defensemen to the VGK and keeping theodore for trade bait doesn't make a lot of sense. just keep theo since vat's salary would go to VGK.

but overall, I'm lost with your comment about losing an asset in Theo. The whole league was set to lose assets. We're no different in that capacity.

We were going to either make moves (vats) and cut ties with bieksa. And still lose something of low value. Or just lose Theo and keep vats and bieksa.