Bob McKenzie's top tier group of 2011 NHL draft prospects

arsmaster*

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If Coutourier falls out of the top 4, then he may be black balled and fall hard, similar to how Rob Schremp and Angelo Esposito did. I wonder how far he falls, and how badly that will shake his confidence.

NO chance in that happening.

Esposito and Schrempf fell because they were one dimensional.

Couturier is "falling" because he is an excellent 2-way player, but "may" lack game breaking ability.

You honestly think he falls past Boston? Imagine that - Seguin, Couturier, and Knight for Kessel.
 

NewEraGM

Registered User
Jun 19, 2010
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This, IMO moves him to 3rd or lower. If he is only half the package then he isn't worth spending a #1 overall pick. His 9 points this season is incredibly underwhelming.

I know, there are about a dozen people waiting to pounce and tell me this is irrelevant but, what if Bob said he is an amazing offensive defenseman and it not outstanding defensively?

Half the package is still half the package no matter which half is missing.

"The Edmonton Oielrs are proud to select, from the Red Deer Rebels..." ;)

Would you rather Marc Ander Bergeron or Anton Volchenkov?
 

puckfan13

Registered User
Jan 18, 2010
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NO chance in that happening.

Esposito and Schrempf fell because they were one dimensional.

Couturier is "falling" because he is an excellent 2-way player, but "may" lack game breaking ability.

You honestly think he falls past Boston? Imagine that - Seguin, Couturier, and Knight for Kessel.

I bet Boston would go with Hamilton. After what they did this year with Seguin (regrettably) where they could only develop him in a very limited fashion, they would almost surely send Couturier back to junior. And this is after everybody on this board has been proclaiming him "NHL-ready" for the whole season. Seguin (future #1 C), Krejci (great #2 C) and Bergeron (all-around stud) around and they just traded Colborne. I think Boston has a pretty good idea of who they want their centres to be going forward. What exactly is their D prospect depth?

If Couturier were to make Boston next year his career trajectory would almost certainly fall under that of Jordan Staal or worse, and everybody here is saying Staal is Couturier's absolute downside.
 

zeus3007*

Guest
NO chance in that happening.

Esposito and Schrempf fell because they were one dimensional.

Couturier is "falling" because he is an excellent 2-way player, but "may" lack game breaking ability.

You honestly think he falls past Boston? Imagine that - Seguin, Couturier, and Knight for Kessel.

With Schremp, I remember their being concern over his foot speed and work ethic. I've heard similar criticisms regarding Coutourier. I'm not saying that he will drop to the 20's, but I wouldn't be shocked if he dropped similarly to how Fowler did last year. I personally expect Boston to draft a d-man this year.
 

arsmaster*

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I bet Boston would go with Hamilton. After what they did this year with Seguin (regrettably) where they could only develop him in a very limited fashion, they would almost surely send Couturier back to junior. And this is after everybody on this board has been proclaiming him "NHL-ready" for the whole season. Seguin (future #1 C), Krejci (great #2 C) and Bergeron (all-around stud) around and they just traded Colborne. I think Boston has a pretty good idea of who they want their centres to be going forward. What exactly is their D prospect depth?

If Couturier were to make Boston next year his career trajectory would almost certainly fall under that of Jordan Staal or worse, and everybody here is saying Staal is Couturier's absolute downside.

LW is an option with Couturier.

Boston picks based on BPA, I dont think Douggie Hamilton is as good of a hockey player as SC is.

Couturier has a lot of qualities the Bruins covet. Not to mention, signing french players helps stick it to the Habs.
 

Dread Clawz

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Nov 25, 2006
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It's a widspread logical fallacy that, when one compare prospects to NHL players, there is some implicit rule which says X will be as good as Y where infact the usual reasons for those comparisons are to compare their type of game and skill -- not their level of skill or their ultimate projections.

Now, Larsson will most probably never become as good as Lidström, few players from here on to eternity will be. I guess my point is that, evidently you don't need the offensive flash to be effective in the offensive zone. Lidström seems to manage quite well without it and by extension, Larsson should too.

Yes, Larsson should manage well without it, but will he be a top level point producing d-man in the NHL, that is the sticking point. I tend to think no. If he's not, then he'll still be a great two-way 40ish point d-man, which is exactly how the scouts described him.
 

puckfan13

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Jan 18, 2010
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LW is an option with Couturier.

Boston picks based on BPA, I dont think Douggie Hamilton is as good of a hockey player as SC is.

Couturier has a lot of qualities the Bruins covet. Not to mention, signing french players helps stick it to the Habs.

Hamilton is a great all-around package who excels in nearly every aspect of the game. A lot of character/smarts and elite athletic pedigree. Obviously people disagree on prospects, we are both just guessing who is going to be better but I think DH will be.

My feeling is that two of Strome/Huberdeau and Hamilton could pass SC on draft day, he really is losing a lot of momentum lately. It's not like he has been viewed as a consensus number 1 and people are poking holes in his game like Tavares or Spezza, others have just stepped up and shown higher elite potential lately.
 

arsmaster*

Guest
Hamilton is a great all-around package who excels in nearly every aspect of the game. A lot of character/smarts and elite athletic pedigree. Obviously people disagree on prospects, we are both just guessing who is going to be better but I think DH will be.

My feeling is that two of Strome/Huberdeau and Hamilton could pass SC on draft day, he really is losing a lot of momentum lately. It's not like he has been viewed as a consensus number 1 and people are poking holes in his game like Tavares or Spezza, others have just stepped up and shown higher elite potential lately.

Really? Thats exactly what I think is happening.

He didnt dominate a 19 year old tournament, but dominated the pre-tournament games when he got 2nd line ice time.

He got 3rd line icetime, and definately played well....just didnt "live up to [our] expectations".
 

zeus3007*

Guest
Really? Thats exactly what I think is happening.

He didnt dominate a 19 year old tournament, but dominated the pre-tournament games when he got 2nd line ice time.

He got 3rd line icetime, and definately played well....just didnt "live up to [our] expectations".

No, its a big difference between what is happening with Coutourier vs what happened with Tavares and Spezza. The Tavares/Spezza thing happens every year, its the sports networks way of boosting ratings for draft shows. But its still usually obvious who would go first. Coutourier has never been a clear cut number one. Larsson was there earlier this year, and now Nugent Hopkins is turning heads. Its not like the experts are just making up holes in his game. He legitimately isn't as flashy or skilled as RNH, and Landeskog and Larsson have looked to have a better all around game.
 

arsmaster*

Guest
No, its a big difference between what is happening with Coutourier vs what happened with Tavares and Spezza. The Tavares/Spezza thing happens every year, its the sports networks way of boosting ratings for draft shows. But its still usually obvious who would go first. Coutourier has never been a clear cut number one. Larsson was there earlier this year, and now Nugent Hopkins is turning heads. Its not like the experts are just making up holes in his game. He legitimately isn't as flashy or skilled as RNH, and Landeskog and Larsson have looked to have a better all around game.

Tavares had Hedman.

Couturier has Larsson.

Sean Couturier was THE clear cut #1 until ISS' January 2011 ranking, where he fell.

RLR is down on SC, becuase "he hasnt lived up to their expectations", not because he is less skilled or because others have a better all around game.

I have him 3rd, behind RNH and A. Larsson.
 

bluechipbonzo

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Feb 12, 2010
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I am somewhat shocked that NHL GMs are going to make the same mistake twice with a small, ridiculously talented offensive PMD the way they did with Fowler and now are doing with Murphy. Both players who fell inexplicably despite their game not changing a whole lot in their draft season. The team that lands Murphy is going to be pleasantly surprised at his offensive maturity once he arrives. He could play on an NHL powerplay next season.

Have you see Fowler play in his own end?

Yeeech.
 

Mathletic

Registered User
Feb 28, 2002
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Have you see Fowler play in his own end?

Yeeech.

that's my problem with Fowler. I thought he would fall in the draft last year due to that. Nobody ever doubted his offensive abilities, like Murphy, but I'm not sure he can sustain big minutes defensively.
 
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Bjorn Le

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May 17, 2010
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Murphy and Fowler are completely diffrent offensive defensemen however. Fowlers obvious got that size advantage but Murphy is ahead of him defensively during draft years (Even though Fowler is older) and then theres obvious the other factors but I won't focus on that.

Fowler fell probably because of the defensive play but Murphy shouldn't fall because of that. Niether should (have) fall(ed). I used to be in the group that suggested Fowler fell for a reason though.
 

headsigh

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Couturier isn't falling past the top 5. If he does, it's pretty much a given that #6 or #7 nabs him or someone tries to trade up to get him.

In a way, he's like the reverse Tyler Seguin- NHL ready, pretty much a given he's going to be good, but how good?
 

phil macrackin

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Sep 28, 2005
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I love how so many people say they don't see Couturier falling past No. 4, yet Red Line Report and the scouts Bob McKenzie's polled all say differently. Folks, these are informed people relaying the actual landscape to us. Don't live in denial. That doesn't make Couturier a bad prospect, but a lot of credible hockey people keep saying he's been passed. Deal with it.

I also have to say, I can't understand how Red Line Report publishes an opinion a couple of weeks ago and everyone just calls it trash and accuses Kyle Woodlief of trying to drum up publicity. Then Bob McKenzie offers up the same view (via his conversations with NHL scouts) and a bunch of people rush to credit him for having the real scoop on the situation. Shouldn't all the haters give RLR some credit for nailing it, too?
 

zeus3007*

Guest
Tavares had Hedman.

Couturier has Larsson.

Sean Couturier was THE clear cut #1 until ISS' January 2011 ranking, where he fell.

RLR is down on SC, becuase "he hasnt lived up to their expectations", not because he is less skilled or because others have a better all around game.

I have him 3rd, behind RNH and A. Larsson.

Tavares was the clear cut number one from the time he was 15. Hedman came along, and was never really a threat to be taken first, it was all media plotting. And Coutourier was never the clear cut #1. Larsson was the one who was deemed number one for over a year now. Coutourier was seen as the top NA skater, not the top ranked player in the draft.
 

boredmale

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Murphy and Fowler are completely diffrent offensive defensemen however. Fowlers obvious got that size advantage but Murphy is ahead of him defensively during draft years (Even though Fowler is older) and then theres obvious the other factors but I won't focus on that.

Unless somebody is envisioned to be a clear cut #1 defenseman or a very good #2, chances are they will fall in the draft. I think in the case of Fowler to many teams envisioned his peak as a very good second pairing defenseman. The main problem with defensemen is chances are they will take longer to develop then a forward.

I can see Murphy being rated real high(3-5) on some lists and real low(10-15) on others.
 

Dr.Sens(e)

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Feb 27, 2002
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I can understand some team's being drawn to any one of the top 3 ahead of Couturier, but these Jordon Staal comparison's really puzzle me. They couldn't be any different. Couturier is one of the best player makes in the CHL and the top scoring CHL player, and draft eligible for the last two years. The guy is all about production. He dominated the U18's as a 17 year old. He cracked the WJC team as an 18 year old. Meanwhile, J Staal was a project that wasn't dominating the OHL yet and never projected to be an average playmaking centermen, let alone an elite one. To this day, he is more a solid scorer, and average passer, as projected.

Couturier is much more like Eric Staal. Whether he tops out that high in terms of upside, remains to be seen, but his hands, vision, offensive awareness and overall skill level is right up there with anyone in the draft.
 

ponder

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Jul 11, 2007
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I am somewhat shocked that NHL GMs are going to make the same mistake twice with a small, ridiculously talented offensive PMD the way they did with Fowler and now are doing with Murphy. Both players who fell inexplicably despite their game not changing a whole lot in their draft season. The team that lands Murphy is going to be pleasantly surprised at his offensive maturity once he arrives. He could play on an NHL powerplay next season.
How is Fowler small? According to hockeydb he's 6'2" and 199 lbs, which looks about right on the ice. Murphy is listed at 5'11" and 176 lbs on hockeydb, a lot smaller. Fowler is also a significantly better skater despite being bigger. I like Murphy and think he should definitely go top 10, but I don't think Fowler is the best comparison.
 

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