Bob McKenzie's top tier group of 2011 NHL draft prospects

4thliner*

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Bob McKenzie 5 mins ago on TSN

Said that there is a clear top 3 now Nugen-Hopkins, Larsson, and Landeskog and when asked by James Duthie if there is much separation for a guy here, he said there isn't and scouts are all over the place favoring all 3 guys.

Said that Landeskog and Nugen-Hopkins are having great playoffs with Kitchiner down 2-1 and Red Deer up 3-0

Said that he has spoken to number of scouts that say Landeskog is "the complete package"

Larsson is a guy who will play on your 2nd PP unit and can do a lot of things, not outstanding offensive skills.

RHN is small and very talented and even though Oilers could use him they would like a bigger strapping center.

Said that Landeskog and Larsson are NHL ready more so even in Landeskog.....meaning Nugen-Hopkins isn't?

He also said that Huberdoue and Strome could jump into this group according to some scouts.




Now I respect Bob McKenzie the most of all TV hockey personalities/gurus, but where does this leave Couturier? The guy everyone had as going possibly 1st overall in September??
 

islandermaniac

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mckenzie has a pretty good read on the scouting community. if he left couturier out of the conversation (which he did because i just saw the same thing you did), the free fall of this young man is very real. perhaps red line report and craig button were not far off when they lowered couturier's ranking.
 

SDig14

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If Couturier falls out of the top 3 on draft day, which seems pretty likely, I would bet a lot of money the Oilers will go hard for him, similar to how they tried for Johansen, unless Stu and Co. see some fatal flaw in his game and don't like him.
 

danishh

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bob's not giving you what he thinks, he's giving you what his impression is from the scouts he talks to.

i'd say it's pretty accurate, whether you agree with it or not.
 

4thliner*

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I still think Couturier goes @ #4.....and I know Strome/Huberdou are damn good blue-chip prospects.

But man a guy who can score and could be a defensive beast standing at 6-4 6-5 and north of 230 lb in couple of years, that is HARD to pass up. Guy is a lock to be a player in the NHL if not a great player.
 
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Vagrant

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I am somewhat shocked that NHL GMs are going to make the same mistake twice with a small, ridiculously talented offensive PMD the way they did with Fowler and now are doing with Murphy. Both players who fell inexplicably despite their game not changing a whole lot in their draft season. The team that lands Murphy is going to be pleasantly surprised at his offensive maturity once he arrives. He could play on an NHL powerplay next season.
 

Ogopogo*

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Larsson is a guy who will play on your 2nd PP unit and can do a lot of things, not outstanding offensive skills.

This, IMO moves him to 3rd or lower. If he is only half the package then he isn't worth spending a #1 overall pick. His 9 points this season is incredibly underwhelming.

I know, there are about a dozen people waiting to pounce and tell me this is irrelevant but, what if Bob said he is an amazing offensive defenseman and it not outstanding defensively?

Half the package is still half the package no matter which half is missing.

"The Edmonton Oielrs are proud to select, from the Red Deer Rebels..." ;)
 

islandermaniac

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I am somewhat shocked that NHL GMs are going to make the same mistake twice with a small, ridiculously talented offensive PMD the way they did with Fowler and now are doing with Murphy. Both players who fell inexplicably despite their game not changing a whole lot in their draft season. The team that lands Murphy is going to be pleasantly surprised at his offensive maturity once he arrives. He could play on an NHL powerplay next season.

how is this even a part of the conversation? is it because you are suggesting that murphy deserves to be included in the "big 3" conversation?
 

Vagrant

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how is this even a part of the conversation? is it because you are suggesting that murphy deserves to be included in the "big 3" conversation?

I believe that he does. There was a time where his name was thrown about for the 1st overall pick, but that time has obviously passed. It's just that his scouting trajectory reminds me a lot of what they did to Fowler last season while scouting Hall and others. Landeskog and Murphy to Hall and Fowler. I would certainly have him in the discussion with Larsson if I were going defense in the first few picks. Forgive me if that seems a bit off the point of the thread. I just don't like his falling out and think it's a case of overexposure.
 

SDig14

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I am somewhat shocked that NHL GMs are going to make the same mistake twice with a small, ridiculously talented offensive PMD the way they did with Fowler and now are doing with Murphy. Both players who fell inexplicably despite their game not changing a whole lot in their draft season. The team that lands Murphy is going to be pleasantly surprised at his offensive maturity once he arrives. He could play on an NHL powerplay next season.

Except, I think Murphy will go similar to Ellis, where he gets taken in the 8-10 range, right where he was ranked fairly consistently. He can't really fall because he has never been ranked in the top 4.

On the other hand, Fowler was a consensus top 3 pick for a long time, and there were even rumblings of him going in the top 2, which was later refuted when it seemed like it was Taylor and Tyler and then the rest of the draft class going into June.
 

nitz

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I am somewhat shocked that NHL GMs are going to make the same mistake twice with a small, ridiculously talented offensive PMD the way they did with Fowler and now are doing with Murphy. Both players who fell inexplicably despite their game not changing a whole lot in their draft season. The team that lands Murphy is going to be pleasantly surprised at his offensive maturity once he arrives. He could play on an NHL powerplay next season.

Lol .. ok man. Why do you say that? I have trouble believing that.
 

vezna*

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I am somewhat shocked that NHL GMs are going to make the same mistake twice with a small, ridiculously talented offensive PMD the way they did with Fowler and now are doing with Murphy. Both players who fell inexplicably despite their game not changing a whole lot in their draft season. The team that lands Murphy is going to be pleasantly surprised at his offensive maturity once he arrives. He could play on an NHL powerplay next season.
redo the 2010 draft and i still won't take fowler over hall or skinner.
 

Zaphod

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Forgive me, but just what is the knock on Couturier? Less electrifying? That he'll translate to the NHL but not be a stand-out?
 

islandermaniac

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I got Landeskog/Couturier/RNH/Larsson/Strome/Huberdeau/Murphy/Hamilton, as my top 8 and then I think I finally see some slide.

is that your order? if so, i'll take bob mckenzie's word for it (through his conversations with nhl scouts) that couturier is no longer part of the top grouping. his dealings with scouts have allowed him to accurately pick the top three (at least) of the draft since 2007.
 

SDig14

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Forgive me, but just what is the knock on Couturier? Less electrifying? That he'll translate to the NHL but not be a stand-out?

I think it's kind of similar to what happened to Brandon Gormley last season. Like Gormley, Couturier basically can do everything on the ice and play in all situations, but doesn't really have that "wow" factor or element to his game that you think might lead him to be an excellent NHLer.

I think people look at the Jordan Staal draft and are starting to think guys like Toews and Backstrom are much better NHLers, therefore teams in the top 3-4 may want to try to take a homerun swing on a guy that has potential to be an elite NHLer, instead of a safer pick.

That being said, Couturier could be a steal if he progresses well and fills out, because he has a very big frame and solid offensive skills to go with his size.
 

s7ark

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Except, I think Murphy will go similar to Ellis, where he gets taken in the 8-10 range, right where he was ranked fairly consistently. He can't really fall because he has never been ranked in the top 4.

On the other hand, Fowler was a consensus top 3 pick for a long time, and there were even rumblings of him going in the top 2, which was later refuted when it seemed like it was Taylor and Tyler and then the rest of the draft class going into June.

If Murphy falls that low, we need to trade up with LA's pick to get him. He could be a dynamite player for someone and I hope it's us. We could use a guy who can QB a PP and complete a pass out of our zone. RNH + Murphy would make me very happy come draft day.
 

Vagrant

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Lol .. ok man. Why do you say that? I have trouble believing that.

He has tremendous lateral agility, foot speed, and ability to find shooting lanes. His shot isn't ridiculous by any stretch of the imagination, but he has a Mike Green like ability to get quiet wrist shots through traffic and on net to create trouble for goaltenders. I am most impressed by his explosion from a dead stop to get to the center lane of the ice and make reads from there. There have been questions about his head but he seems to make the right calls more times than not to me. I have heard people also criticize his passing which is a legit criticism, as the kid isn't perfect by a fair stretch, but I believe that upper body strength improvements will allow him to make more assertive passes in the future. I think his evolution from last year to this year has been pretty remarkable in terms of answering critics about his game, but his development hasn't been exactly explosive. I think the error is being made in projection to improve the way we've seen with fellow teammate Landeskog who is night and day better than last season.

As I said, I think overexposure is a culprit with Murphy and would be glad to take him. You watch an offensive defenseman as much as Murphy has been watched, on his own behalf as well as on behalf of Landeskog, and you're going to see him blow some assignments and make some mistakes. It's inherent to the explosive style of creation off the rush that he generates that he'll turn the puck over at times at his own blueline or make a poor read at top speed. I think his adjustment will be fairly simple, however, once he makes the transition to professional hockey.
 

Vagrant

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I think people look at the Jordan Staal draft and are starting to think guys like Toews and Backstrom are much better NHLers, therefore teams in the top 3-4 may want to try to take a homerun swing on a guy that has potential to be an elite NHLer, instead of a safer pick.

The thing about Jordan Staal though is that he WAS the home run pick and that may have been the questionable decision. Staal was ridiculously young as a September '88 and scouts were using Eric's transition through the OHL as a pace comparison for where Jordan was and forgiving his lack of offensive production with the understanding that his raw skill would make him a better professional than junior player, just like his brother. Toews, in particular, had ripped it up in the NCAA for North Dakota and was being praised as a ridiculous intangibles player but not a whole lot of explosive upside. Scouts got that wrong to a degree, but Toews development post draft was pretty remarkable.

I seem to distinctly remember Staal being advertised as a fast skating and ultra skilled power forward who would develop a brand of physicality to his game once his body matured and that he seemed to have a negative production to skill ratio for only scoring 68 points in the O during his draft season. To me, that was the swing for the fence.
 

Ward Cornell

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He has tremendous lateral agility, foot speed, and ability to find shooting lanes. His shot isn't ridiculous by any stretch of the imagination, but he has a Mike Green like ability to get quiet wrist shots through traffic and on net to create trouble for goaltenders. I am most impressed by his explosion from a dead stop to get to the center lane of the ice and make reads from there. There have been questions about his head but he seems to make the right calls more times than not to me. I have heard people also criticize his passing which is a legit criticism, as the kid isn't perfect by a fair stretch, but I believe that upper body strength improvements will allow him to make more assertive passes in the future. I think his evolution from last year to this year has been pretty remarkable in terms of answering critics about his game, but his development hasn't been exactly explosive. I think the error is being made in projection to improve the way we've seen with fellow teammate Landeskog who is night and day better than last season.

As I said, I think overexposure is a culprit with Murphy and would be glad to take him. You watch an offensive defenseman as much as Murphy has been watched, on his own behalf as well as on behalf of Landeskog, and you're going to see him blow some assignments and make some mistakes. It's inherent to the explosive style of creation off the rush that he generates that he'll turn the puck over at times at his own blueline or make a poor read at top speed. I think his adjustment will be fairly simple, however, once he makes the transition to professional hockey.

I've seen approx. 160 games by Murphy the last two years and I'm really baffled by some of your analysis!

But I do think he easily should be a top 5 pick but he won't be.
 

YNWA14

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Murphy is not better than Larsson, RNH, Landeskog, Couturier, Strome, Huberdeau or Hamilton.
 

CantHaveTkachev

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Larsson is a guy who will play on your 2nd PP unit and can do a lot of things, not outstanding offensive skills.
little concerning but not surprising...he had 9 points all year

RHN is small and very talented and even though Oilers could use him they would like a bigger strapping center.
our center depth is atrocious...if the Oilers are picking #1, I think they take RNH. The guy is a flat-out stud at 166lbs..imagine when he's 185??

if the Oilers pick #2 then it could get interesting....I'm sure they'd pick whoever is left of RNH/Larsson but Landeskog intrigues me cause of his all-around package...he's gritty AND a beast on the wing

I don't care if we need a center or d-man...if Landeskog is BPA, take him
 

Marc the Habs Fan

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I just can't believe Couturier does not go in the top 4. Someone is going to want a horse of a center with his talent level and pedigree.

Then again, I thought Fowler was a lock to go in the top 5 last year...
 

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