Gretzky has said that those who have won before will have to play their way off the team. Smyth, while slumping lately, has still had a respectable start to the year, and the beauty of a guy like Smyth is he can play on either a scoring line or a checking line, and he's strong in front of the net on the PP. I believe he's the only player to be part of all four champions (2002 Olys, 2003 and 2004 World Championships, 2004 World Cup). Therefore, I think he's a lock.
My locks:
F - Sakic, Iginla, Heatley, Thornton, Gagne, Richards, Lecavalier, Smyth. (8 forwards).
D - Foote, Niedermayer, Blake, Pronger, Redden. (5 defencemen).
G - Brodeur, Luongo
Notes:
F:
*St. Louis isn't a lock, based on his play this year, but his perseverance coming back from the finger injury may have cinched his spot. Plus, he's very, very good defensively, witness his fourth place finish for the 2004 Selke.
*Nash was a lock prior to the injury. Now he might have a week to impress the big boys.
*Bertuzzi's been too inconsistent to be a lock anymore. A good final few games before the roster is announced will go a long ways. When he's on, there's nobody like him in the NHL. It's just he hasn't been on much since about the 60 game mark of the 2002-03 season.
*Lots of interesting options. Draper and Doan have been so good on the checking line. Morrow has been terrific this year in Dallas. He'll get a long look, but will likely come up just short. Shanahan will also get a long look, after his great start. One name to watch is Marleau. If he continues to thrive, he'll get a very long look.
*I think one of the wonderkids will make the team. My pick is Staal, because he's a little more well-rounded. On the flip side, if teams can dress 13 forwards and seven defencemen (which they have been allowed to in the past), then maybe Spezza is the guy, since he can act as a PP specialist.
D:
*Jovanovski will probably get one of the spots, due to his history with Canada. If teams are allowed to outright dress 7 D, then McCabe should get it, and act as a PP specialist. If they're allowed to carry six, then Jovo or McCabe won't make it (I'll say Jovo makes it), and Regehr will find his way in.
*When I talked about players who have played their way off the team, Eric Brewer fits the bill. I'm a big Brewer fan, but between the trade to St. Lou, the injury and the way McCabe and Regehr have come forward, I don't see Brewer on the team.
*Darkhorse pick: Dan Boyle. He moves the puck well, and he's not as risky as Jovo or McCabe. (Not as strong or physical, either, but geez Boyle is smooth). One thing to note: Boyle was excellent for Canada at the 2005 Worlds.
*Sorry, Flames fans, but Phaneuf will not make it. But his time will come.
G:
*I say it's between CuJo and Turco. CuJo has likely been the best goalie in the league this year. Turco's been up there, too, and he's a great playmaker. Turco did well in putting the ego aside as the No. 3 goalie at the Worlds last year. CuJo pouted after losing the No. 1 job at the 2002 Olys, but he seems more willing to accept the role.
*Belfour was great as the No. 3 at the 2002 Olys, but his inconsistency this year will keep him off.
*Theodore will not get on, since he wasn't happy about being the No. 3 at the 2004 World Cup.
