GDT: Blues @ Yotes @ Blues @ Yotes @ Blues @ Yotes @ Blues @ Yotes @ Blues @ Yotes @ Blues @ Yotes @ Blue

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Garland is a star player. He'll be a ppg guy going forward. He's a legit talent and only 24. I wouldn't take anything away from him. I wish all of our players would work as hard as he does.

THe jury is still out for me on Garland, but he and Point are two players I was really hoping the Blues would take a chance on in later rounds. But that's just my drafting philosophy: round 5-7 should be goalies/swing-for-the-fences type picks.

 

[stl76]

re: Garland, I feel like people forget (or never knew) that the guy lead the entire CHL in scoring 2 years in a row from 2014-2016. His scoring rate so far this year might not be 100% sustainable long term, but it's not like he is coming out of nowhere and fluking his way to success. This is not a flash in the pan.

 

[ezcreepin]

re: Garland, I feel like people forget (or never knew) that the guy lead the entire CHL in scoring 2 years in a row from 2014-2016. His scoring rate so far this year might not be 100% sustainable long term, but it's not like he is coming out of nowhere and fluking his way to success. This is not a flash in the pan.

You're not going to see me disagree here that Garland is an excellent player, but to be fair he lead/tied the CHL in points with Dylan Strome in a league that typically has more scoring than the others. To along with that, guys like Bjorkstrand, Trevor Cox(???), etc were all behind them in points who are either good players or never played a single game in the league (I'm not going to mention Marner or McDavid for obvious reasons). So although it's easy to say he lead the league, sometimes it doesn't mean a whole lot depending on the team situation and if the player drives the play vs when the player is a passenger (Ty Rattie anyone?)

 

[stl76]

You're not going to see me disagree here that Garland is an excellent player, but to be fair he lead/tied the CHL in points with Dylan Strome in a league that typically has more scoring than the others. To along with that, guys like Bjorkstrand, Trevor Cox(???), etc were all behind them in points who are either good players or never played a single game in the league (I'm not going to mention Marner or McDavid for obvious reasons). So although it's easy to say he lead the league, sometimes it doesn't mean a whole lot depending on the team situation and if the player drives the play vs when the player is a passenger (Ty Rattie anyone?)

Well, you're 100% right that Garland technically tied Strome in 2015. And I'm glad you bring up the importance of team situation and driving play vs being a passenger - because you're right it's very important.

That said, when comparing Garland's 129 to Strome's 129, it's important to note that Strome was playing on a team (and I believe on the same line for much of the season) with McDavid (120 pts) and DeBrincat (104 pts), who both obviously scored at very high rates. Similarly, Marner (126 pts) was playing on a stacked London team, and on the same line with Dvorak (109 pts) and Domi (102 pts). Garland on the other hand was the only player on his team to top 100 points, outscoring the next highest player on his team - our very own Ivan Barbashev - by 34 points (in 10 more games).

As far as Trevor Cox, haven't heard of him but I'll bet you a nickle he was an overager who had a great year dominating guys 2-3 years younger and less developed than him. Happens fairly often in the CHL leagues where some 20 year old undrafted player isn't good enough to move on to another league and has a big year against younger less developed players (usually they don't amount to much).

FWIW I think the Q's reputation as a higher scoring/less defensive league is honestly overblown. I think that was probably true at one point, but doubt there's a really significant difference in scoring between the Q and the OHL at this point in time (a.k.a it's more reputation than reality currently IMO).

 

[ezcreepin]

Well, you're 100% right that Garland technically tied Strome in 2015. And I'm glad you bring up the importance of team situation and driving play vs being a passenger - because you're right it's very important.

That said, when comparing Garland's 129 to Strome's 129, it's important to note that Strome was playing on a team (and I believe on the same line for much of the season) with McDavid (120 pts) and DeBrincat (104 pts), who both obviously scored at very high rates. Similarly, Marner (126 pts) was playing on a stacked London team, and on the same line with Dvorak (109 pts) and Domi (102 pts). Garland on the other hand was the only player on his team to top 100 points, outscoring the next highest player on his team - our very own Ivan Barbashev - by 34 points (in 10 more games).

As far as Trevor Cox, haven't heard of him but I'll bet you a nickle he was an overager who had a great year dominating guys 2-3 years younger and less developed than him. Happens fairly often in the CHL leagues where some 20 year old undrafted player isn't good enough to move on to another league and has a big year against younger less developed players (usually they don't amount to much).

FWIW I think the Q's reputation as a higher scoring/less defensive league is honestly overblown. I think that was probably true at one point, but doubt there's a really significant difference in scoring between the Q and the OHL at this point in time (a.k.a it's more reputation than reality currently IMO).

That could be true, I'm not well versed on the CHL leagues or how much better they are compared to each other. I've noticed quite a bit of WHL'ers that score a lot who don't amount to much in the NHL or rather that I haven't seen many WHL'ers in the NHL. Idk why that is, if I just don't notice that players are from the W or if I subconsciously ignore it or what. But you're right, those other players did have a lot of talent around them which elevated their point totals quite a bit. That is something I considered, but I believe you have to be pretty good to be scoring at roughly a 2 points per game clip, no matter who you are. Except for Trevor Cox. Idk who this guy was or where he came from, but he is just a little bit older than Garland and just never did anything really after juniors (ECHL, AHL, NHL). Pretty strange, but I've seen weirder.

One thing that annoys me about us drafting Barbashev is the fact that he and Garland were on the same team and they managed to completely ignore Garland's play. Did Garland not play with relatively the same speed, skill, etc in juniors as he does now? I think that's hard to believe that he wasn't driving the play at 17 years old; he was the 3rd highest scorer on Moncton in 2014 behind Barbashev and Chris Lalonde. We drafted Gawdin before Garland was drafted, and maybe Gawdin does pan out in the league, maybe he doesn't. I just wonder if they had Garland on their list of players they wanted to draft and he was picked off earlier than they thought he would. But shit, I'm not a scout so I don't know anything

 

[Brockon]

Well, you're 100% right that Garland technically tied Strome in 2015. And I'm glad you bring up the importance of team situation and driving play vs being a passenger - because you're right it's very important.

That said, when comparing Garland's 129 to Strome's 129, it's important to note that Strome was playing on a team (and I believe on the same line for much of the season) with McDavid (120 pts) and DeBrincat (104 pts), who both obviously scored at very high rates. Similarly, Marner (126 pts) was playing on a stacked London team, and on the same line with Dvorak (109 pts) and Domi (102 pts). Garland on the other hand was the only player on his team to top 100 points, outscoring the next highest player on his team - our very own Ivan Barbashev - by 34 points (in 10 more games).

As far as Trevor Cox, haven't heard of him but I'll bet you a nickle he was an overager who had a great year dominating guys 2-3 years younger and less developed than him. Happens fairly often in the CHL leagues where some 20 year old undrafted player isn't good enough to move on to another league and has a big year against younger less developed players (usually they don't amount to much).

FWIW I think the Q's reputation as a higher scoring/less defensive league is honestly overblown. I think that was probably true at one point, but doubt there's a really significant difference in scoring between the Q and the OHL at this point in time (a.k.a it's more reputation than reality currently IMO).

Updated Translation Factors - Hockey Abstract

I did a little digging - this is what I could conclusively find that showed a difference in point values between the CHL leagues, dated late 2015.

An NHLe point translator update for junior and overseas league - projecting the expected production in the NHL, after accumulating data of peers from various leagues and how it translated to the NHL.

Notably 2015-16
OHL 0.32
WHL 0.27
QJMHL 0.26

So the expectation at that time (2015-16) was that a 100pt OHL player would produce ~32 points in a equal number of NHL games played the following season vs a QJMHL player hitting ~26 points. There's an 18.75% discrepancy outlined there between the OHL and the QJMHL, that's hardly insignificant.

The NHLe Calculator (Updated 04/11/2019)

Using a 2019 updated calculator for 100pts in 65gp across all 3 CHL leagues shows

OHL 40.75
WHL 38.10
QJMHL 35.83

Stats don't tell the full story, but there's clearly something that advanced analytics are picking up if the league itself doesn't project as well consistently year over year by a noticeable percentage.

The 2019 calculator still predicts a 12.07% difference between the OHL and the QJMHL.

Edit: I don't pretend to understand the assumptions made by whoever created the calculator, it's just a tool that I use to help guide my fantasy pool draft selections. I'm competitive by nature and I hate to lose, so I do some digging to try and do well in my dynasty leagues - even though there's no monetary incentive to do so.

 

[ezcreepin]

Updated Translation Factors - Hockey Abstract

I did a little digging - this is what I could conclusively find that showed a difference in point values between the CHL leagues, dated late 2015.

An NHLe point translator update for junior and overseas league - projecting the expected production in the NHL, after accumulating data of peers from various leagues and how it translated to the NHL.

Notably 2015-16
OHL 0.32
WHL 0.27
QJMHL 0.26

So the expectation at that time (2015-16) was that a 100pt OHL player would produce ~32 points in a equal number of NHL games played the following season vs a QJMHL player hitting ~26 points. There's an 18.75% discrepancy outlined there between the OHL and the QJMHL, that's hardly insignificant.

The NHLe Calculator (Updated 04/11/2019)

Using a 2019 updated calculator for 100pts in 65gp across all 3 CHL leagues shows

OHL 40.75
WHL 38.10
QJMHL 35.83

Stats don't tell the full story, but there's clearly something that advanced analytics are picking up if the league itself doesn't project as well consistently year over year by a noticeable percentage.

The 2019 calculator still predicts a 12.07% difference between the OHL and the QJMHL.

Edit: I don't pretend to understand the assumptions made by whoever created the calculator, it's just a tool that I use to help guide my fantasy pool draft selections. I'm competitive by nature and I hate to lose, so I do some digging to try and do well in my dynasty leagues - even though there's no monetary incentive to do so.

Nice work homie, this is really cool