GDT: Blues vs. Coyotes|Reverse Retro Debut| 7pm, FSMW

Status
Not open for further replies.

Brian39

Registered User
Apr 24, 2014
7,029
12,744
I got home from pond hockey at about 11:30 last night and had watched the 1st period before going to play. I desperately tried to stay awake long enough to watch the 2nd and 3rd, but fell asleep with about 10 minutes left. I felt much better about this game this morning than I did when I went to sleep. Remember how the Hawks used to sleepwalk through games for 45 minutes but then score 2-3 goals in 5 minutes to get it to OT? This team is starting to show an ability to explode and score in bunches. We dug ourselves too big of a hole tonight, but it is nice to see the 6 on 5 clicking. It is pretty incredible that we came close to tying a game that we trailed 3-0 in the final 5 minutes.

Hoffman suddenly has a 4 game point streak with 3 goals in the last 2 games. Shooters are streaky man. He's going to go cold again at some point and he will probably bring nothing to the table during that cold stretch. But can we stop the "he doesn't deserve a spot in the lineup" talk? Despite the slow start he is now on a 32 goal and 57 point pace despite largely being used on the 2nd PP unit. Those goals/points are going to come in bunches with periods of little/no production, but the production is going to be decent by the end of the year. I hope he stays with ROR/Perron for at least a few games. Sanford hasn't been good enough there and Hoffman has looked good when played there. I'd also figure out a way to get him on the top PP unit. The PP is 11% and 28th in the league. Hoffman has scored 49 PP goals since the start of the 2016/17 season, which is 6th in the league. It is 9 more PP goals than Schenn has in that timeframe and 18 more than ROR. If the PP1 was clicking without him, then I would say don't try to fix what isn't broken. But the PP is 3 for the last 20 and one of those goals came from the 2nd unit. He was taken off the top unit for a smaller sample size than that, so it doesn't make sense to keep him off it now.

Speaking from a more long-term view, the PP is starting to concern me. The personnel out there is just too good to be getting these results, but we are starting to see a trend of elite PP guys joing the Blues and stop being elite PP guys. Krug has been an elite PP QB the last few years and has just 2 PP points through 11 games. That's just shy of being on pace for 15 PP points over an 82 game season. He had 28 last year and 30 the year before that (and played less than 65 games each year). Among forwards, ROR was 12th in PP goals and 17th in PP points in the 2 years before he became a Blue. He's 126th in PP goals and 42nd in PP points since joining the Blues. Among forwards, Schenn was 4th in PP goals and 9th in PP points in the 2 years before he became a Blue. 48th and 54th since becoming a Blue. Krug, Schenn, ROR, and Hoffman were all top 25 PP producers before joining the Blues. The sample size is small for Krug/Hoffman, but all 4 have seen a sharp decrease in PP effectiveness with the team. Perron has seen an uptick in PP production in the last couple years, but he also drastically improved his shot in the summer after the 2017/18 season. There is just no excuse for the PP to be below 20% when you can spread Krug, Schenn, ROR, Hoffman, Perron, and Schwartz over two units and support them with Dunn, Kyrou and Thomas. There is way too much talent there for 11% to be remotely acceptable.
 

BlueMed

Registered User
Jul 18, 2019
2,804
3,328
I got home from pond hockey at about 11:30 last night and had watched the 1st period before going to play. I desperately tried to stay awake long enough to watch the 2nd and 3rd, but fell asleep with about 10 minutes left. I felt much better about this game this morning than I did when I went to sleep. Remember how the Hawks used to sleepwalk through games for 45 minutes but then score 2-3 goals in 5 minutes to get it to OT? This team is starting to show an ability to explode and score in bunches. We dug ourselves too big of a hole tonight, but it is nice to see the 6 on 5 clicking. It is pretty incredible that we came close to tying a game that we trailed 3-0 in the final 5 minutes.

Hoffman suddenly has a 4 game point streak with 3 goals in the last 2 games. Shooters are streaky man. He's going to go cold again at some point and he will probably bring nothing to the table during that cold stretch. But can we stop the "he doesn't deserve a spot in the lineup" talk? Despite the slow start he is now on a 32 goal and 57 point pace despite largely being used on the 2nd PP unit. Those goals/points are going to come in bunches with periods of little/no production, but the production is going to be decent by the end of the year. I hope he stays with ROR/Perron for at least a few games. Sanford hasn't been good enough there and Hoffman has looked good when played there. I'd also figure out a way to get him on the top PP unit. The PP is 11% and 28th in the league. Hoffman has scored 49 PP goals since the start of the 2016/17 season, which is 6th in the league. It is 9 more PP goals than Schenn has in that timeframe and 18 more than ROR. If the PP1 was clicking without him, then I would say don't try to fix what isn't broken. But the PP is 3 for the last 20 and one of those goals came from the 2nd unit. He was taken off the top unit for a smaller sample size than that, so it doesn't make sense to keep him off it now.

Speaking from a more long-term view, the PP is starting to concern me. The personnel out there is just too good to be getting these results, but we are starting to see a trend of elite PP guys joing the Blues and stop being elite PP guys. Krug has been an elite PP QB the last few years and has just 2 PP points through 11 games. That's just shy of being on pace for 15 PP points over an 82 game season. He had 28 last year and 30 the year before that (and played less than 65 games each year). Among forwards, ROR was 12th in PP goals and 17th in PP points in the 2 years before he became a Blue. He's 126th in PP goals and 42nd in PP points since joining the Blues. Among forwards, Schenn was 4th in PP goals and 9th in PP points in the 2 years before he became a Blue. 48th and 54th since becoming a Blue. Krug, Schenn, ROR, and Hoffman were all top 25 PP producers before joining the Blues. The sample size is small for Krug/Hoffman, but all 4 have seen a sharp decrease in PP effectiveness with the team. Perron has seen an uptick in PP production in the last couple years, but he also drastically improved his shot in the summer after the 2017/18 season. There is just no excuse for the PP to be below 20% when you can spread Krug, Schenn, ROR, Hoffman, Perron, and Schwartz over two units and support them with Dunn, Kyrou and Thomas. There is way too much talent there for 11% to be remotely acceptable.

I view Hoffman as a bandaid solution to the absence of Tarasenko. And what Hoffman has done on past teams is a bit irrelevant since the Blues play a more demanding brand of hockey. Even though it's only been 10 games, he looks totally out of sync with his linemates. Is he improving? Somewhat. Could he still be adjusting to a new team? Likely. Or is he an "empty calorie" player? When Tarasenko comes back at some point, I think there will be legitimate discussion of whether Hoffman stays in the lineup since he'll be the 9th forward vs Sanford. I know our coaching staff doesn't tolerate players only having an impact on the powerplay. The Blues are built to dominate teams on even strength.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zamadoo

Stlblue50

Registered User
Apr 17, 2019
680
503
Mikkola is starting to remind me of Bouwmeester a bit. And man, he is such a smooth skater.
He has been one of our better looking defenders in the games he played. He even looks good when he pinches. Hope he continues to develop
 

Brian39

Registered User
Apr 24, 2014
7,029
12,744
I view Hoffman as a bandaid solution to the absence of Tarasenko. And what Hoffman has done on past teams is a bit irrelevant since the Blues play a more demanding brand of hockey. Even though it's only been 10 games, he looks totally out of sync with his linemates. Is he improving? Somewhat. Could he still be adjusting to a new team? Likely. Or is he an "empty calorie" player? When Tarasenko comes back at some point, I think there will be legitimate discussion of whether Hoffman stays in the lineup since he'll be the 9th forward vs Sanford. I know our coaching staff doesn't tolerate players only having an impact on the powerplay. The Blues are built to dominate teams on even strength.
Hoffman is 6th on the team in even strength points and 3rd in even strength goals.

He is currently producing .6 points per game at even strength, which is a 49 point pace at even strength. Fewer than 50 guys did that in 2018/19. That is the equivalent of 41 points over a 68 game shortened season. Fewer than 50 guys hit the 41 point mark at even strength last year.

1 of his 7 points have come on the PP.

He's tied for 3rd among our forwards in +/- and his expected +/- is +0.3. His possession stats are exceptionally good (which is expected given his usage).

You are just incorrect about the premise of your argument that he isn't doing anything at even strength. There are absolutely flaws and weak points to his game, but it is just inaccurate to say he doesn't do anything at even strength.

We haven't had a top 10 offense since 2014/15 and we had the lowest playoff goals per game of any Cup winner since 2012/13. This idea that we believe that we have enough offensive skill when Tarasenko returns to shelve a 55-70 point player is just bizarre. Last year he had more goals than any player on our team. His 59 points would have been 3rd on our team last year and just 2 points behind the team lead (in 2 fewer games). In 2018/19, he also had more goals than anyone on our team (which included a healthy Tarasenko). His 70 points would have been 2nd on the team behind ROR's 77 and 2 points ahead of Tarasenko's 68.

He might not hit these lefty totals within our system and his contribution outside of scoring isn't as much as many other forwards on the roster. But he isn't going to be a 35-40 point forward (over an 82 game season). He has scored at least 22 goals and at least 56 points every year for 5 straight years. His rookie year was 2014/15. Only 17 players across the league have scored more goals than him goals since the start of that year. Tied for 20th since 2017/18 (one behind Panarin and tied with Eichel). Tied for 18th since 2018/19 (one behind Marchand, Aho and Point; 3 up on Eichel). 21st in goals last year. He isn't an okay goal scorer. He isn't a good goal scorer. He is a top 25 goal scorer in the league, full stop.

Barring a massive drop off from the 10 games he's played with us so far, he isn't getting healthy scratched. He is not a bandaid for Tarasenko that is at risk of being forward #9 or 10 when we're healthy.
 
Last edited:

Thallis

Progression is not linear
Jan 23, 2010
9,118
4,453
Behind Blue Eyes
I'd like to see Hoffman contribute more when the game hasn't gotten out of hand before I say everything is okay. Goals are better than no goals, but it was pretty clear that the Coyotes came off the gas at the end. It was a good fight to almost tie it, but I consider it more the difference between a veteran team and an inexperienced one rather than some breakthrough.
 

BlueDream

Registered User
Aug 30, 2011
25,685
14,074
I have been concerned about Thomas for some time now. I thought that last season he was playing a little more timidly than usual. Now, I don't mean to overstate this, he still goes to the battle areas, but I have noticed he tends to avoid the physical battles. I thought at first he was just a little gun shy, possibly due to the Krug hit in the SCF, and that he would just play out of it. I haven't seen any changes, though. I could be overreacting, as he has never been a banger, and he doesn't have to be. I just hope he never becomes the kind of player who actively avoids getting hit.
This is my concern too. Thomas is so soft.

I really don’t get it. He looks bigger this year, too. He’s gotta be around 200 pounds which is average NHL size. He’s not even small.

He has the smarts and ability to be effective with his stick and use that to his advantage defensively. Berube even said this during camp which is why he wanted him to kill penalties. But now that the season has started, Thomas has seen zero PK time. So he clearly didn’t progress as much as the coaches wanted to there.

He’s unbelievably talented but when he doesn’t/can’t shoot, doesn’t PK and is weak/unwilling to battle, he’s a fairly one-dimensional player. He really needs to study O’Reilly more and do what he does.

I mean heck, Kyrou plays harder and more physical than him by far this year. I’ve seen Hoffman even hit a couple guys. It’s just a bit disappointing from Thomas.
 

Cotton McKnight

He left, get over it!
Feb 6, 2009
768
512
Siloam Springs
4:42 of this game was very watchable, the rest had me cringing. The quick three goals at the end was hopefully a confidence booster for Hoffman. Can't wait to see the Blues come out strong for game 3 of the mini playoff series.
 

Brian39

Registered User
Apr 24, 2014
7,029
12,744
I'd like to see Hoffman contribute more when the game hasn't gotten out of hand before I say everything is okay. Goals are better than no goals, but it was pretty clear that the Coyotes came off the gas at the end. It was a good fight to almost tie it, but I consider it more the difference between a veteran team and an inexperienced one rather than some breakthrough.
In the last week he has assisted on a game winner in the 2nd period and scored a game tying goal in the 1st period. I get what you are saying about the Coyotes last night, but I can't say that his 2nd goal to make it a 1 goal game was a result of the Yotes having their foot off the gas. The Yotes aren't a very good team, but they were very clearly snapped back to attention after ROR's goal. They were getting out-executed, but I didn't see laziness after it became 4-2. But even if you do chalk our team success up to their laziness, both of Hoffman's goals were the result of him finding open space and using his elite shot. His 2nd goal was a ludicrously good feed from Perron, but Hoffman buried it high and far side to ensure Raanta couldn't make a sprawling save. That play was mostly Perron, but Raanta got over in time to make a save had the shot not been hard and accurate. We watched Schenn try and narrowly fail to go 5 hole earlier in the game on a play where Raanta was in desperation mode

Again, Hoffman is not a perfect player and his non-finishing skillset isn't special. But his finishing ability is top 20 in the league and we have started to see it. He's picked up 5 points in his last 4 games and 3 of them were goals. 3 of the 5 points have either pulled his team within 1, tied the game or put the team up by 1. It really feels like people are actively trying to diminish his positive contributions.
 
Last edited:

BlueOil

"well-informed"
Apr 28, 2010
7,028
4,023
I view Hoffman as a bandaid solution to the absence of Tarasenko. And what Hoffman has done on past teams is a bit irrelevant since the Blues play a more demanding brand of hockey. Even though it's only been 10 games, he looks totally out of sync with his linemates. Is he improving? Somewhat. Could he still be adjusting to a new team? Likely. Or is he an "empty calorie" player? When Tarasenko comes back at some point, I think there will be legitimate discussion of whether Hoffman stays in the lineup since he'll be the 9th forward vs Sanford. I know our coaching staff doesn't tolerate players only having an impact on the powerplay. The Blues are built to dominate teams on even strength.
sanford's competition is with blais and mac, not hoffman. he's been the beneficiary of a long leash based on past chemistry that's all-but-evaporated this year and is the obvious man out when tarasenko returns. sanford's logged 1g, 1a in 11 games averaging 15:33/night (largely on the top line). meanwhile, whipping boy hoffman has 7 points in 10 games averaging 14:39/night. sanford's getting more time, with better line mates, and failing to contribute productively from almost any angle. hoffman's on an underperforming 3rd line, playing less time, and still producing better. hoffman's also +4 to sanford's -1. there's not even a debate to be had here. hoffman stays in the line up. sanford scratch or taxi squad. rotate sandford/blais in as needed.

furthermore, if tarasenko returns at even 80% of his former self, the blues should count themselves lucky.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DoubleK81

Blueston

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Dec 4, 2016
18,706
19,287
Houston, TX
In the last week he has assisted on a game winner in the 2nd period and scored a game tying goal in the 1st period. I get what you are saying about the Coyotes last night, but I can't say that his 2nd goal to make it a 1 goal game was a result of the Yotes having their foot off the gas. The Yotes aren't a very good team, but they were very clearly snapped back to attention after ROR's goal. They were getting out-executed, but I didn't see laziness after it became 4-2. But even if you do chalk our team success up to their laziness, both of Hoffman's goals were the result of him finding open space and using his elite shot. His 2nd goal was a ludicrously good feed from Perron, but Hoffman buried it high and far side to ensure Raanta couldn't make a sprawling save. That play was mostly Perron, but Raanta got over in time to make a save had the shot not been hard and accurate. We watched Schenn try and narrowly fail to go 5 hole earlier in the game on a play where Raanta was in desperation mode

Again, Hoffman is not a perfect player and his non-finishing skillset isn't special. But his finishing ability is top 20 in the league and we have started to see it. He's picked up 5 points in his last 4 games and 3 of them were goals. 3 of the 5 points have either pulled his team within 1, tied the game or put the team up by 1. It really feels like people are actively trying to diminish his positive contributions.
How many points would Hoffman have if he hadn’t spent 80% of his ice time with Thomas? Thomas has great talent but has been pretty bad since the bubble.
 
  • Like
Reactions: AjaxManifesto

Ranksu

Crotch Academy ftw
Sponsor
Apr 28, 2014
19,671
9,303
Lapland
What was Blues 2nd PP line? Last year Thomas was player who setup plays and now he is like net front presence what is IMO so badly placed. Kyrou is now setup Guy at left side. In my eyes Kyrou should be right side where he shoots 1-timers.

Kyrou - Thomas -Sanford
Dunn - Schwartz/Faulk?

Perron - ROR - Hoffman
Krug - Schenn?

Even 1st PP looked odd, both Perron and Hoffman were their wrong side, not 1-timer spot. How we played 6on5 and how effective Hoffman were should be normal setup.

I know I should have waited more games to criticize, but @Brian39 started so I have to write something.

No blame yet PP coach?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Brian39

DoubleK81

It's always something with these pricks.
Sep 10, 2010
2,466
2,742
PETRO SUCKS
What was Blues 2nd PP line? Last year Thomas was player who setup plays and now he is like net front presence what is IMO so badly placed. Kyrou is now setup Guy at left side. In my eyes Kyrou should be right side where he shoots 1-timers.

Kyrou - Thomas -Sanford
Dunn - Schwartz/Faulk?

Perron - ROR - Hoffman
Krug - Schenn?

Even 1st PP looked odd, both Perron and Hoffman were their wrong side, not 1-timer spot. How we played 6on5 and how effective Hoffman were should be normal setup.

I know I should have waited more games to criticize, but @Brian39 started so I have to write something.

No blame yet PP coach?

The blame has to lie squarely on Montgomery at this point. We have done nothing but add proven PP performers to a team that had the #3 PP last year. When the majority of those players are producing otherwise, the PP system has to be put into question.
 

Brian39

Registered User
Apr 24, 2014
7,029
12,744
I know I should have waited more games to criticize, but @Brian39 started so I have to write something.

No blame yet PP coach?
:laugh::laugh::laugh:

I'm not ready to start blaming people and hitting the panic button, but my frustration is certainly more towards coaching than on-ice execution. We have been moving the puck pretty well on the PP the last few games, but can't get the puck on guys' tape in shooting positions.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ranksu

LGB

Registered User
Feb 4, 2019
2,083
2,089
I think Sanford and Hoffman swapping lines would make a lot of sense. Sanford was statistically Thomas' best line-mate last season.

Screen Shot 2021-02-05 at 5.33.22 PM.png


The goal scoring rate is obviously not sustainable, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them continue to perform their xGF to some degree.
 

MissouriMook

Still just a Mook among men
Sponsor
Jul 4, 2014
7,816
8,147
I think Sanford and Hoffman swapping lines would make a lot of sense. Sanford was statistically Thomas' best line-mate last season.

View attachment 393034

The goal scoring rate is obviously not sustainable, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them continue to perform their xGF to some degree.
This passes the eye test as well. They always seem to find each other when they’re on the ice together. I’m just not sure who should be the third man on that line, though someone who is willing and eager to go to the net would be helpful. A guy like Maroon would come in handy there.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LGB

Blueston

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Dec 4, 2016
18,706
19,287
Houston, TX
This passes the eye test as well. They always seem to find each other when they’re on the ice together. I’m just not sure who should be the third man on that line, though someone who is willing and eager to go to the net would be helpful. A guy like Maroon would come in handy there.
Sunny
 
  • Like
Reactions: MissouriMook

simon IC

Moderator
Sponsor
Sep 8, 2007
9,219
7,606
Canada
  • Hoffman-ROR-Perron
  • Schwartz-Schenn-Kyrou
  • Sanford-Thomas-Sundqvist
  • Blais/Clifford-Barbashev-Bozak
I don't really like the fourth line combinations, but I can't really come up with anything better. I have no issue with Bozak on the fourth line. I think he is at the end of his tenure with the Blues anyway. Bozak and Barbashev can be switched for face-offs. I have no idea what happens when Tarasenko returns, as I am not sure replacing Sunny for him on the third line is a good idea. Oh well, depth is good. It's a nice problem to have. :)
 
Last edited:

Reality Czech

Registered User
Apr 17, 2017
4,893
7,801
sanford's competition is with blais and mac, not hoffman. he's been the beneficiary of a long leash based on past chemistry that's all-but-evaporated this year and is the obvious man out when tarasenko returns. sanford's logged 1g, 1a in 11 games averaging 15:33/night (largely on the top line). meanwhile, whipping boy hoffman has 7 points in 10 games averaging 14:39/night. sanford's getting more time, with better line mates, and failing to contribute productively from almost any angle. hoffman's on an underperforming 3rd line, playing less time, and still producing better. hoffman's also +4 to sanford's -1. there's not even a debate to be had here. hoffman stays in the line up. sanford scratch or taxi squad. rotate sandford/blais in as needed.

furthermore, if tarasenko returns at even 80% of his former self, the blues should count themselves lucky.

I don't think it's as obvious as you make it sound. Sanford has worked hard to become a solid defender and PKer, and he clearly has earned Berube's trust. The fact that he has worked hard to become a more complete player is why his spot in the lineup is safer than Blais. I know some fans only seem to focus on point production, but there are other parts of the game that matter as well. Who takes over Sanford's PK time if he is scratched? Certainly not Blais, Mac or Hoffman. Will Perron and ROR mind playing with a guy who doesn't like to play defense? Keep in mind that is also our #1 defensive line, so will Hoffman be able to handle that role?

I'm fine with switching the two, but I don't think Sanford is as bad as some fans make it seem. He is much more of a "whipping boy" by fans on this forum than Hoffman. It's great that Hoffman finally scored a few goals, just goes to show how a couple of good games can make someone's stat line go from bad to decent really fast. When Bozak comes back then Sanford's spot in the lineup is more in jeopardy, but we still need guys to PK. If/when everyone is healthy then Sanford will likely play 3rd/4th line but putting him on the taxi squad is going a bit too far.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Blueston
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->