Blues vs Avalanche Round 1

[Avsfan1921]

Good luck and here's to a fast paced, hard fought series!

The Blues match up against us well and can play the style of game that counteracts their speed. This will be an interesting series not only on the ice, but also behind the benches. I fear our special teams compared to yours but am hopeful our speed and cycle shine through. This is going to be one of the hardest fought series of the first round and hopefully one of the more exciting on-ice products.

 

[BlueMed]

So what are we thinking on lines going into Colorado? Something like this?

Barbashev - O'Reilly - Perron
Schwartz - Schenn - Kyrou
Sanford - Thomas - Hoffman
Clifford - Bozak - MacEachern/Blais

Krug - Faulk
Scandella - Parayko
Mikkola - Bortuzzo

Binnington
Husso

I'm not too sure on what to do with the 3rd and 4th lines.... If Tarasenko is ready do we play him and try to add some extra offense he could generate? And yes I know it hasn't been as good of a year for him offensively to this point. I guess if so put him with Schwartz and Schenn and reunite Kyrou with Thomas and Hoffman. If Tarasenko is not in, do we trust Kostin enough already to keep on that 3rd line with Thomas and Hoffman like he was against the Wild?

[Edited]

Bozak will be in the top 9 with Barbashev likely anchoring that 4th line center spot. I think the recent changes were made in light of these past 2 games with some players resting up.

Perron-O'Reilly-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Bozak-Schenn
Hoffman-Thomas-Kyrou
Sanford-Barbashev-Blais

 

[joe galiba]

Bozak will be in the top 9 with Barbashev likely anchoring that 4th line center spot. I think the recent changes were made in light of these past 2 games with some players resting up.

Schenn-O'Reilly-Perron
Schwartz-Bozak-Schenn
Hoffman-Thomas-Kyrou
Sanford-Barbashev-Blais

With Tarasenko coming back in round 1, I honestly have no idea where to put him.

maybe he can play in one of Schenn's spots

 

[BlueMed]

The playoffs are played differently than the regular season. Colorado has the speed and offensive punch heading into this series, but the Blues have physicality, defense, goaltending, and experience on their side. There's not a single player on their roster known for high-end defense like many of the juggernauts we have seen in past playoff series (Toews, Hossa, Keith, Hjalmarsson, Doughty, Kopitar, Carter, Richards, Bergeron, etc). Preventing goals is just as important as scoring them, and if the Blues play up to their potential, this won't be an easy match like a lot of "statisticians" are making it out to be.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

We're going to need to not get slaughtered in 2nd periods if we are going to stand a chance. Colorado has outscored us 11-3 in 2nd periods this year.

 

[Xerloris]

We're going to need to not get slaughtered in 2nd periods if we are going to stand a chance. Colorado has outscored us 11-3 in 2nd periods this year.

Most of those were on the PP

 

[Turbonium]

The playoffs are played differently than the regular season. Colorado has the speed and offensive punch heading into this series, but the Blues have physicality, defense, goaltending, and experience on their side. There's not a single player on their roster known for high-end defense like many of the juggernauts we have seen in past playoff series (Toews, Hossa, Keith, Hjalmarsson, Doughty, Kopitar, Carter, Richards, Bergeron, etc). Preventing goals is just as important as scoring them, and if the Blues play up to their potential, this won't be an easy match like a lot of "statisticians" are making it out to be.

The Avs have of the the best goalies in the league this year in Grubauer and are 2nd in the league in goals against while giving up the least amount of shots per game of any team.

While this will be a great competitive series to watch for any hockey fan, this belief that the Avs just want to run and gun and win high scoring games is simply untrue. The Blues match up well because they play disciplined hockey and don't make a ton of mistakes that lead to easy breakouts for the Avs (on top of having some very talented players).

I think this one will be one of the better series to watch in the first round. Here's to an entertaining and injury free playoff series!

 

[Brian39]

The playoffs are played differently than the regular season. Colorado has the speed and offensive punch heading into this series, but the Blues have physicality, defense, goaltending, and experience on their side. There's not a single player on their roster known for high-end defense like many of the juggernauts we have seen in past playoff series (Toews, Hossa, Keith, Hjalmarsson, Doughty, Kopitar, Carter, Richards, Bergeron, etc). Preventing goals is just as important as scoring them, and if the Blues play up to their potential, this won't be an easy match like a lot of "statisticians" are making it out to be.

Devon Toews has been pretty fantastic defensively over the last couple years. He is among the league's best by pretty much any defensive metric and has a ridiculous xGA/60 of 1.57. He was very good defensively in a very different Isles system last year, so it doesn't seem like he is just a product of the Avs controlling the puck. He was an absolute beast when Makar was out and is probably going to be around Parayko on most "best of" lists next year.

Brandon Saad has a reputation as a very strong defensive winger, even though he isn't getting utilized in a defensive role. Their forwards who are being used in defensive roles (Compher, Bellemare, Graves and somehow Timmons) have all been posting incredibly good possession/defensive metrics.

They don't have defensive name recognition, but they have a ton of guys playing great defense this year. Their percentages/ratios aren't just good because of crazy offense. They are 1st in corsi allowed, fenwick allowed, shots allowed, scoring chances allowed and high danger chances allowed at 5 on 5. They finished 2nd in goals against at 5 on 5, 3rd in overall goals against and 1st in overall shots allowed per game (25.4). They are a really good defensive team even if they don't have a ton of guys considered elite defenders.

I can't see any support for the argument that the 2021 Blues are better defensively than Colorado. They aren't the offensive run and gun team that many people think. They have been amazing defensively this year.

 

[Ranksu]

 

[TheDizee]

You have no idea what you are talking about regarding the Avs. They have been incredibly good 5 on 5 this season. I think that their numbers are inflated by the COVID scheduling and our crappy division, but they have been inflated from "extremely good" to "historically good."

At 5 on 5, they are 1st in CF%, FF%, SF%, GF%, xGF%, SCF%, and HDCF%. They are 58% or higher in every single one of these metrics. Most impressively, their xGF% sits at 60.8%, which is a staggering 5 point edge on the #2 team in the league. There is a larger xGF% gap between the Avs and the #2 team than there is between the #2 team and the #14 team. That is stunning. Natural Stat Trick goes back to 2007/08 for these types of metrics. This is the first time that any team has finished the season above 58% in xGF% at 5 on 5. Vegas got the benefit of playing against the same crappy division and finished 7th with a 53.29 xGF%. Minny was 13th with a 51.21 and we were 26th with a 46.09. They didn't go from mediocre at 5 on 5 to historically good numbers because of the division. They are exceptionally good at 5 on 5.

I think we match up against them very well stylistically and ROR is arguably the ideal 1C to send out to counter MacKinnon. But this notion of yours that they are a PP team isn't based anywhere near reality. They have a good PP (8th in the NHL), but it is absolutely not the driver of their success. The 5 week hot streak from our PP once Berube realized Hoffman is good on the PP put our season-long PP% ahead of the Avs. This notion that the Avs success is driven by the refs is absurd.

100 more minutes on PP than us, abaout 75 more than league avg. 32 more than 3rd place team.

they are reliant on the refs giving them a goal or two every game, pure PP team. garbage team 5on5.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

There always seems to be a large disconnect in results vs. expectations when thinking of the Avalanche. It seems like people believe they aren’t good defensively, but no metric supports that. People think they are simply a power-play team, but their exceptional 5-on-5 play strongly disagrees with that. People like to think Cale Makar is another John Carlson despite Makar being one of the best shot suppressors in the league. I see people think they have no depth when they can role a dangerous top-4 along with a great top-9.

They aren’t perfect nor do I think the Blues can’t compete if they are on their game. But the Avalanche are one of the top-3 teams in the league currently and will only get better thanks to their prospect pool. This is series could easily be a wash for them if the Blues aren’t ready. I don’t mind that people would find weaknesses in the Avs. But the weaknesses should be actual weaknesses as opposed to unfounded beliefs.

 

[TheDizee]

Blues were better than them 5 on 5 in head to head. So who gives a shit about what they did against the rest of the league?

exactly.

"oh they were so good 5on5 against the ducks, kings, and sharks!!!!"

ya thats really gonna help them against us isnt it. our AHL roster outscored them 5on5 bc they are TRASH 5on5.

 

[BlueMed]

Colorado in 4. You heard it here.

 

[Avsfan1921]

Devon Toews has been pretty fantastic defensively over the last couple years. He is among the league's best by pretty much any defensive metric and has a ridiculous xGA/60 of 1.57. He was very good defensively in a very different Isles system last year, so it doesn't seem like he is just a product of the Avs controlling the puck. He was an absolute beast when Makar was out and is probably going to be around Parayko on most "best of" lists next year.

Brandon Saad has a reputation as a very strong defensive winger, even though he isn't getting utilized in a defensive role. Their forwards who are being used in defensive roles (Compher, Bellemare, Graves and somehow Timmons) have all been posting incredibly good possession/defensive metrics.

They don't have defensive name recognition, but they have a ton of guys playing great defense this year. Their percentages/ratios aren't just good because of crazy offense. They are 1st in corsi allowed, fenwick allowed, shots allowed, scoring chances allowed and high danger chances allowed at 5 on 5. They finished 2nd in goals against at 5 on 5, 3rd in overall goals against and 1st in overall shots allowed per game (25.4). They are a really good defensive team even if they don't have a ton of guys considered elite defenders.

I can't see any support for the argument that the 2021 Blues are better defensively than Colorado. They aren't the offensive run and gun team that many people think. They have been amazing defensively this year.

I'm thankful some fans from other teams have noticed this. If given time they are great at transitioning and play well positionally. Toews has been a top 20 Dman this year and is a little unheralded IMO.

Where we will struggle against you, however, is in puck retrieval and boxout situations. Our D is timid in the corners and can panic under pressure, as well as their best defenders are not overly big. You will get a good amount of chances by retrieving the puck in the corners and cycling back to the point for deflections and screens. I pray our forwards are on their horse all series because we will need to outman you to retrieve and transition.

 

[Blueston]

We outscored them head to head @ 5 on 5 so no, they did not beat us in every underlying metric and I would dare say we beat them at the only metric that matters.

The underlying metrics are better predictors of future results than score. So score is in a sense all that matters in what HAS happened, us scoring weak goals against crappy goalies we won't be facing isn't predictive of future outcome.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Colorado in 4. You heard it here.

Who is this smug f***?

 

[TheDizee]

Who is this smug f***?

a butthurt canucks fan

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

We're going to need to not get slaughtered in 2nd periods if we are going to stand a chance. Colorado has outscored us 11-3 in 2nd periods this year.

eh... bad 2nd periods are a thing of the past

 

[Xerloris]

The underlying metrics are better predictors of future results than score. So score is in a sense all that matters in what HAS happened, us scoring weak goals against crappy goalies we won't be facing isn't predictive of future outcome.

So metrics that were created because the Avalanche were playing against a lot of AHL guys due to injuries is more predictive of future results than the fact that we've beaten the Av's when we're healthy?

 

[Xerloris]

Who is this smug f***?

Lol f***ing loser only parroted what the Athletic writers said.

 

[TheDizee]

av fans will learn soon that their team once again cannot handle big boy hockey. stars slapped em silly last year playin the same brand of hockey. they can use the goalies excuse but the stars wernt playing Bishop either so thats all they have, excuses.

5on5 big boy hockey is what the playoffs are all about. Pure PP teams get clowned every year and they will be learning that lesson once again.

 

[Frenzy31]

The underlying metrics are better predictors of future results than score. So score is in a sense all that matters in what HAS happened, us scoring weak goals against crappy goalies we won't be facing isn't predictive of future outcome.

How do you judge weak goals? Did we not play against their goaltenders?

 

[WATTAGE4451]

Agreed.

I'd love to see a Wild vs Blues Round #2, but the odds on that are probably 100 to 1.

I'd say it's very likely the Wild could beat vegas. Vegas is 3-5 against the wild this year and 1-4 vs them in regulation. The Wild are the only team vegas has a losing record against. And although everyone thinks little of the Wild, they actually were still in the race with reasonable chance to win division as late as the last 7 games of the season and didn't finish that far behind vegas and the avs in the standings all things considered.

I'm more concerned about us beating the avs

 

[WATTAGE4451]

I don't see any of our fans seriously thinking the Blues are going to curbstomp them and beat them fairly quickly...

No because we lost more games than we won and for awhile fell into 5th place this season, but if you switch the avs and Blues seasons, our board would be filled with people thinking we'd crush the avs in 4 games.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

Moneypuck is the worst analytic/probability thing out there and EVERYONE uses it. A month ago when we were 2 points back of the Coyotes with 50 games in hand they had us at around 20%. Everyone else had us well over 50.

Wow, we had a lot of games to make up.