Blues Trade Proposals 2020-21 - Part II

[Reality Czech]

Will we use Hoffman like he needs to be? If not, does it do us any good to sign him at whatever? This offseason really needs to be spent with a discussion on what system we're going to play and how (if) guys fit into that. From there, we can figure out roster construction. It doesn't do us any good to assemble pieces that don't mesh in whatever system we're going to play, and I'm starting to think that got overlooked this past offseason.

Hoffman is another interesting case. We kind of knew who he was before Army signed him, and many including myself questioned if he was the right guy for this team. And when he was recently scratched it made complete sense.

But... He's been excellent at putting the puck in the net and deadly on the power play, especially of late. Without his recent contributions we would likely be even further out of a playoff spot, and while his play away from the puck isn't great it's also not so bad to outweigh his goal-scoring abilities.

I always assumed it was one and done for him, but depending on what happens with Schwartz and others I can now imagine the possibility of him coming back. But it might require an identity change for the Blues and Berube. Kyrou is another guy with elite offensive skill but may never be great defensively so is there room for both of them in the top nine?

Regardless, Hoffman has won me over and he's done the job he was brought in to do.

 

[MissouriMook]

Hoffman is another interesting case. We kind of knew who he was before Army signed him, and many including myself questioned if he was the right guy for this team. And when he was recently scratched it made complete sense.

But... He's been excellent at putting the puck in the net and deadly on the power play, especially of late. Without his recent contributions we would likely be even further out of a playoff spot, and while his play away from the puck isn't great it's also not so bad to outweigh his goal-scoring abilities.

I always assumed it was one and done for him, but depending on what happens with Schwartz and others I can now imagine the possibility of him coming back. But it might require an identity change for the Blues and Berube. Kyrou is another guy with elite offensive skill but may never be great defensively so is there room for both of them in the top nine?

Regardless, Hoffman has won me over and he's done the job he was brought in to do.

This is an interesting point because if you look at the players that the GM is bringing in, they don't necessarily mesh with the perception of the coach's style of play, so maybe that identity is already changing. If this team manages to miss the playoffs after Arizona, LA and San Jose have done everything they can to gift us the #4 seed, or if they make the playoffs and get embarrassed in the first round, I'd say there is roughly a 50/50 chance that Berube isn't the coach next season. If that happens, and depending on who they replace him with, you could argue that it could make it more likely for a guy like Hoffman to find his way back here.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Hoffman is another interesting case. We kind of knew who he was before Army signed him, and many including myself questioned if he was the right guy for this team. And when he was recently scratched it made complete sense.

But... He's been excellent at putting the puck in the net and deadly on the power play, especially of late. Without his recent contributions we would likely be even further out of a playoff spot, and while his play away from the puck isn't great it's also not so bad to outweigh his goal-scoring abilities.

I always assumed it was one and done for him, but depending on what happens with Schwartz and others I can now imagine the possibility of him coming back. But it might require an identity change for the Blues and Berube. Kyrou is another guy with elite offensive skill but may never be great defensively so is there room for both of them in the top nine?

Regardless, Hoffman has won me over and he's done the job he was brought in to do.

Yeah, I don't have a problem with Hoffman provided that one recognizes what he's supposed to do and what he's not supposed to do. If the expectation is "he's a defensively responsible back-checker who ..." - BZZZT - no, that's not him.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

I don’t disagree with you here. However, how much of the +/- is tied to playing w the ROR line on a consistent basis? Compared with Dunn, who is he typically pair with from the forward perspective? I would argue the only really consistently productive line we have had is the ROR line. The 2nd and 3rd lines have been jumbled messes offensively and defensively. Some of it is on Dunn, some of it is on the man to man defensive coverage.

Also, I would look at the splits. Who has been better over the past few months vs accumulative. Dunn was a dumpster fire earlier this season.

agreed... this is where the stats 'lie' and you have to watch the games to see how things really are. Krug is what he is, a very good PP guy who plays well in open ice. in his own zone, he's barely a hinderance.. he gets run over constantly

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

Faulk had to play on his off wing his first year here, and I thought it was unfair to judge him on that year. But what has Krug had to adjust to that was comparable?

nothing.. he's been given his spot/preferred place and prime time on the 1st PP unit. Faulk still doesn't get that

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

When the decision was made by whichever side one wants to blame that Pietrangelo wasn't coming back, someone had to come in as a replacement. We can discuss who it could/should have been, but the pickings were slim. After Krug, it's Tyson Barrie (right-handed), Kevin Shattenkirk (right ... and, we've done that experiment before), Erik Gustafsson (left), Sami Vatanen (right) and Jake Muzzin (left). There wasn't a hell of a lot out there.

Is Krug horrible? No. Is he playing like a $6.5 million defenseman? Um, no. It's not that he's terrible, just like Faulk isn't terrible. It's that between him, Faulk and Parayko they're making $18.625 million and counting $18.5 million on the cap, and you can't point to any of them and say "yeah, there's a true #1 defenseman this season." Faulk was playing more like a #1 early, he looked really good, but he's tailed off as time has gone on. It's like we got a pair of 3s and we're waiting to see what a healthy Parayko is. If he isn't a legit 1 ... well, look at Cup winners and find all of them who didn't have a true 1/2 on the blueline, someone explain what's going to be different here. And if Parayko does turn out to be a legit 1, will Armstrong pony up the necessary money for that?


I know what you were trying to get at with these two statements, but seeing those two sentences back-to-back in reference to +/- as a valid stat is kind of funny.

Dunn can be really good offensively. He can be really not good defensively, which takes away from his offensive game. If he were to have some 20-42-62 kind of breakout season, maybe that changes things. Krug is getting used more on the defensive side, which historically he's not been used in. That's impacting his play. We talk about zone starts (which I think is generally overrated, but that's another discussion); Krug was 62.6% offensive in Boston over his career. He's been 53% here. The '15-16 season in Boston, he was 55.5% and it marked his then-lowest career goal output at 4. We also talk about shooting %, especially in relation to a couple forwards. This year, Krug's hit on 1 of his 97 shots on goal. If he were just at his Boston career average, he'd have 4 more goals. Doesn't sound like a lot, but that's 4 times where we're putting pressure on the opposition instead of having to play defense and us chasing them.

For whatever reason, Krug here isn't what Krug was in Boston. He's got to be that to make him worth that contract. If that's just getting luck shooting, if it's better usage, if it's better play from guys around him as well, whatever it is, something has to improve if he's going to find his game and be what we were told he would be.

he's not a top pair Dman. at best, and I'm sure this is what the Blues envisioned, is he plays 2nd pairing and top PP, supplying shots that get thru crowds and on net for at least good rebounds.
he IS getting shots thru crowds, but they're not dangerous in the least, and the personnel he's playing with is NOT Boston's PP unit.
his dzone starts are up cause Faulk needs to be out there and that's his partner. but it exposes him, which in turn hurts his production.
ideally it's parayko/scandella on the top pair with faulk/krug on the 2nd, or faulk/parayko on the 1st with krug/scandella on the 2nd.
but he is NOT a top pair dman

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

This is an interesting point because if you look at the players that the GM is bringing in, they don't necessarily mesh with the perception of the coach's style of play, so maybe that identity is already changing. If this team manages to miss the playoffs after Arizona, LA and San Jose have done everything they can to gift us the #4 seed, or if they make the playoffs and get embarrassed in the first round, I'd say there is roughly a 50/50 chance that Berube isn't the coach next season. If that happens, and depending on who they replace him with, you could argue that it could make it more likely for a guy like Hoffman to find his way back here.

the Hoffman thing aside, not sure what Berube was supposed to do when at one point there were FIVE centers on IL at the same time and he was forced to play ECHL guys

I don't see Berube having a short leash just because of Hoffman, but it WOULD be an interesting conversation to hear between him and Army lol

 

[Celtic Note]

If you can find a taker for Tarasenko, whether at the Expansion draft or the Entry draft, do you bring back Hoffman at $6M and potentially upgrade that position at a savings of $1.5M/year? They're both similarly flawed and skilled; but one guy is producing and the other is an expensive question mark.

As for the defense - yeah...you can't shelter everyone. Somebody has to take those LHD minutes...but it's akin to being the tallest dwarf; which somehow seems fitting for Krug.

I am not sure how I feel. But, I do think it’s a question worth asking.

 

[The Note]

As for the expansion draft, exposing Tarasenko may not be a bad idea. I would also expose Krug over Dunn at this point, just to adjusting the line up a bit and opening up cap space. If this team goes on a run and makes the playoffs and gives a solid effort in the first round, then Dunn would be exposed, but if not I really think we need to look at the make up a bit.

But, if we don't make the playoffs, then..... I think this is a good opportunity to dump a contact. And most importantly, I think Krug and or Tarasenko would be taken w/o adding or paying a price.

I really hope they use the offseason to free up cap somehow, regardless of what they do w/r/t the playoffs. Missing entirely or losing in 5-6 games in the first round shouldn't really change what happens this offseason. I'd personally prefer it come in the form of getting out from under one of the Krug/Schenn/Faulk deals as they are all long-term, but Tarasenko would provide immediate space and likely wouldn't cost anything to move as you point out.

 

[MissouriMook]

the Hoffman thing aside, not sure what Berube was supposed to do when at one point there were FIVE centers on IL at the same time and he was forced to play ECHL guys

I don't see Berube having a short leash just because of Hoffman, but it WOULD be an interesting conversation to hear between him and Army lol

My thoughts on Berube are mainly because he himself has made comments in his pressers recently to the effect that the team isn't responding to him. Despite Army's comments a couple of years ago, it is still easier to change the coach (and along with it, the message) than to trade a good chunk of the team to turn over the roster and find players who will respond to that particular message and succeed.

Some may disagree under current circumstances, but ultimately it is the coach's job to get the players to perform and win games, not necessarily to get them to play a specific way. If, as a coach, you either can't get players to play the way you want them to play (or if they are and it's not working) then it is your job to figure out a new way to play or a new way to get your message across. Maybe the bag skate earlier this week was that "new way". Results? TBD.

 

[Stealth JD]

If the Blues let Schwartz walk after having let Pietrangelo and Backes walk, is there any reason to think that O'Reilly is going to be easy to re-sign?

Let's say Schwartz signs elsewhere because Army wouldn't exceed *whatever*, AND the club is able to shed another contract in the expansion draft (Krug, Tarasenko, Faulk, Schenn)... do you start thinking rebuild and consider moving O'Reilly as soon as the next trade-deadline while he's got 2-playoff runs left in his contract? If the Blues miss this year, and shit the bed in the early going of next season in a revamped Central Division, it's going to be time to start asking the difficult questions. Are they really going to pay 1C money to a 33-year old when O'Reilly's contract is slated to end? If not; he'll probably have no higher value than next deadline.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

If the Blues let Schwartz walk after having let Pietrangelo and Backes walk, is there any reason to think that O'Reilly is going to be easy to re-sign?

Let's say Schwartz signs elsewhere because Army wouldn't exceed *whatever*, AND the club is able to shed another contract in the expansion draft (Krug, Tarasenko, Faulk, Schenn)... do you start thinking rebuild and consider moving O'Reilly as soon as the next trade-deadline while he's got 2-playoff runs left in his contract? If the Blues miss this year, and shit the bed in the early going of next season in a revamped Central Division, it's going to be time to start asking the difficult questions. Are they really going to pay 1C money to a 33-year old when O'Reilly's contract is slated to end? If not; he'll probably have no higher value than next deadline.

Just for kicks, sketch out what lines might be if Schwartz walks for elsewhere, we shed Faulk and then we shit the bed and move ROR - and then realize Perron will be 34 when his contract expires after '21-22.

 

[ezcreepin]

There is no way the Blues are going to shed Tarasenko in favor of a guy like Hoffman. We drafted, developed, and have committed to Tarasenko since he was 18, the city loves him, and he loves it here. I don't see any reason why Armstrong would make that lateral move, even with Tarasenko's struggles.

I'm not sure on Schwartz, but I would think that the negotiations are at least understanding enough that both sides realize the other's side. Schwartz is hurt every year, but when he plays the team seems to play well. Can't say how much he's going to want, but I would think both sides could amicably reach a number (though the years will be gross). O'Reilly probably will retire as a Blue unless something catastrophic happens. He's the #1 center, the new captain, and probably doesn't want to be moved again unless he's dead set on trying to win another cup. I would think those two would easily find a contract for him, though I would hope the years are in the small window of like 3-5 years. 5 years is still a long time, but is manageable.

 

[joe galiba]

What Hoffman does is get the puck off quickly AND he shoots on goal AND his shots are around the 4 corners
it sure seems like this year other than Perron's hot stretch there has been a lot of goalie gut shots by everyone else and we seem a little snake bit on rebound chances

 

[LGB]

What site do you guys use for advanced stats? I can't seem to find one that includes QoC. I'd be curious to see the quality of competition Krug has faced this year relative to other Blues defensemen. Is he being sheltered to some degree or is he being asked to shoulder a bigger load than he ever did with Boston?

Puck IQ has interesting QOC metrics. They separate players into 3 categories Elite, Middle, and "Gritensity". You can read an explanation on their methodology here. Krug has the most ice time against "Elite" competition among Blues defenseman, but also the lowest CF% of any Blues defenseman in those minutes (though Scandella is basically equal). Dunn plays the largest percentage of his minutes against "Gritensity" competition among our top defenseman, but actually has a better CF% when playing against "Middle" or "Elite" competition.

Edit: The distribution is weird this year because we are exclusively playing West teams. If you look at this year compared to others there is a much less "Elite" competition.

 

[Celtic Note]

Puck IQ has interesting QOC metrics. They separate players into 3 categories Elite, Middle, and "Gritensity". You can read an explanation on their methodology here. Krug has the most ice time against "Elite" competition among Blues defenseman, but also the lowest CF% of any Blues defenseman in those minutes (though Scandella is basically equal). Dunn plays the largest percentage of his minutes against "Gritensity" competition among our top defenseman, but actually has a better CF% when playing against "Middle" or "Elite" competition.

Edit: The distribution is weird this year because we are exclusively playing West teams. If you look at this year compared to others there is a much less "Elite" competition.

Thanks for sharing!

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Is there a way we can snag Hanifin out of Calgary as they go major re-tool/rebuild this summer? His AAV is excellent, and I think he could be just what wee need on the left side. CGY needs youth, offense, and futures. Some combination of Dunn+Kostin/Neighbours+1st?

 

[Blueston]

Is there a way we can snag Hanifin out of Calgary as they go major re-tool/rebuild this summer? His AAV is excellent, and I think he could be just what wee need on the left side. CGY needs youth, offense, and futures. Some combination of Dunn+Kostin/Neighbours+1st?

I think Hannifin would be great fit, but that seems like too high of a price. And he is out for season with shoulder surgery, so that raises caution flag too.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Who needs a Noah Hanifin when you have a Jake Walman?

 

[The Note]

I do not think the Blues are at a point where they should be parting with a big futures package.

 

[ezcreepin]

Is there a way we can snag Hanifin out of Calgary as they go major re-tool/rebuild this summer? His AAV is excellent, and I think he could be just what wee need on the left side. CGY needs youth, offense, and futures. Some combination of Dunn+Kostin/Neighbours+1st?

Dunn + Sanford or gtfo

 

[simon IC]

Who needs a Noah Hanifin when you have a Jake Walman?

This is sarcasm, right?

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

This is sarcasm, right?

 

[WeWentBlues]

This is sarcasm, right?

Yes lol.

Although I have really liked Walmans game here down the stretch.

 

[Renard]

We don't know what we have in Walman yet. Let's assess him after a full season in the NHL next year.

But I really like what I've seen so far.