Blues Trade Proposals 2018-2019 - Part III

[EastonBlues22]

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[Dbrownss]

Do I win the last thread since I was the last to post?

 

[Evocable Manager]

Do I win the last thread since I was the last to post?

You have more wins than the Blues right now

 

[KirkOut]

Let the hot takes continue

 

[Bluesnatic27]

No one, to my knowledge, is talking about trading Petro tomorrow. Rather, the issue is what to do if and when it becomes apparent that we won't make the playoffs.

Hence, the following question is for you: Would you, if you realized we were going to miss the playoffs, commit to a 7-8 year extension for Petro at 9 plus million AAV (it might be $10 million...not really sure)? You can assume that he also would demand a fairly ironclad NMC. He would start such a contract at age 30 and end it at age 37-38.

If the answer is "no," then your next alternatives are to shop him to a playoff team for a nice package or to simply hold him for the last year of his contract and get nothing in return when he walks to UFA.

My answer is that I do not want to commit to that type of contract for Petro. I would rather get the nice return on a trade.

Finally, if I'm reading your other point correctly, I don't agree that trading Petro (and perhaps Steen) commits us to a 5 plus year rebuild. Indeed, I think holding on to him and then letting him walk for nothing is a more likely path to such a long-term rebuild than taking a nice package for him this year if we are going to miss the playoffs.


P.S.--I do not think the same analysis applies to Tarasenko. He has many years left on his contract. I would not discuss shopping Vladi.

I would love to hear your suggestion as to who could replace Pietrangelo in some capacity.

The main problem with trading someone of Pietrangelo's caliber is the risk of finding a player that can at least maintain what he is capable of. No matter what trade a team makes, the idea of a trade is to acquire value for the player, i.e. finding pieces that can make parting with the player worth the deal. Some of that has to come from being able to replace his production and overall impact on the ice. The chance of finding a player that come remotely close, regardless of position, to a player that is agreed to be a top 8 - 13 in his overall position is like finding a gold vein in your backyard. It doesn't matter what package you get for him because the only chance that the package actually improves the Blues is so astronomically low, that the idea becomes stupid.

So to answer your question, yes, I would give Pietrangelo that kind of contract, simply because the team would be in a much better position throughout the life of the contract, then it would be without Pietrangelo on the team. The only thing you are getting when trading Pietrangelo is the hope that the team will end up in a better position then when it started. And I am using that word "hope" very deliberately, because if the trade doesn't involve a player/players that are at least as good as Pietrangelo, then the deal would set the Blues back. So in my mind, trading Pietrangelo mean that the Blues are content with "losing" the deal due to the balance of probabilities. But, if you wish to argue that a 1st round pick + some prospect + some roster player (because, frankly, that is the most likely deal the Blues will find if such a trade would arise) will benefit the Blues more than having Alex Freakin' Pietrangelo, then please argue that at your kitchen wall, because there no chance in hell I'm going to waste my time listening to something like that.

So I stand by what I said when I said trading Pietrangelo would put the Blues in a rebuild, because what else would it put the Blues in? No one is going to trade a blossoming #1 defenseman for him, and no one is going to trade a player that is better than him unless there is a stupidly large package involved or a GM was reading from the "Marc Bergevin Guide to Roster Building". And I do know that the entire point of your point revolves around the concept that if Pietrangelo walks for nothing, then the Blues would be in a worse spot then before. I agree to that point, only because it's not a real argument as opposed to a statement of fact. I just think it's a pointless thing to say because it can be applied to every top notch player on every single team. San Jose would certainly be in a worse spot if Erik Karlsson left for free agency, as would Edmonton if McDavid had a career ending injury involving a freak weed-whacker injury. But both ideas are not inevitabilities, so trading a player for something that might never come means the team is never going to be in a consistent state to succeed.

 

[Xerloris]

I don't think we're going to see any major trades anytime soon. I could however see Schwartz getting moved closer to the deadline. Not that I would like it.

 

[Dbrownss]

@EastonBlues22 the Shoulder was said to not be an issue. Now they could be lying, but I've seen him lay into people with his shoulder. If it was still bothering him, I feel he would avoid contact. I have noticed him try to pick his spots but goalies are ready for him. Is it possible they just have watched enough tape to know his tendencies and are playing the percentages with him? This is something I've noticed last season, prior to his injury

 

[EastonBlues22]

@EastonBlues22 the Shoulder was said to not be an issue. Now they could be lying, but I've seen him lay into people with his shoulder. If it was still bothering him, I feel he would avoid contact. I have noticed him try to pick his spots but goalies are ready for him. Is it possible they just have watched enough tape to know his tendencies and are playing the percentages with him? This is something I've noticed last season, prior to his injury

Tarasenko's shoulder may not be injured/inhibited or "bothering" him, but there's almost no chance that its strength is already 100% back to where it was pre-surgery. Virtually anyone who has had a major surgery will tell you that it takes much longer than the official rehab time for things to get back to feeling the way they originally were...often a year or more. That wouldn't necessarily induce him to avoid contact since the structure of the shoulder is solid, but any weakness would almost certainly affect his shot.

Berglund's shoulder experience wasn't identical to Tarasenko's, but it's notable that he also didn't shy away from contact during a span when clearly his shot was being affected by the condition of his shoulder.

 

[carter333167]

I would love to hear your suggestion as to who could replace Pietrangelo in some capacity.

The main problem with trading someone of Pietrangelo's caliber is the risk of finding a player that can at least maintain what he is capable of. No matter what trade a team makes, the idea of a trade is to acquire value for the player, i.e. finding pieces that can make parting with the player worth the deal. Some of that has to come from being able to replace his production and overall impact on the ice. The chance of finding a player that come remotely close, regardless of position, to a player that is agreed to be a top 8 - 13 in his overall position is like finding a gold vein in your backyard. It doesn't matter what package you get for him because the only chance that the package actually improves the Blues is so astronomically low, that the idea becomes stupid.

So to answer your question, yes, I would give Pietrangelo that kind of contract, simply because the team would be in a much better position throughout the life of the contract, then it would be without Pietrangelo on the team. The only thing you are getting when trading Pietrangelo is the hope that the team will end up in a better position then when it started. And I am using that word "hope" very deliberately, because if the trade doesn't involve a player/players that are at least as good as Pietrangelo, then the deal would set the Blues back. So in my mind, trading Pietrangelo mean that the Blues are content with "losing" the deal due to the balance of probabilities. But, if you wish to argue that a 1st round pick + some prospect + some roster player (because, frankly, that is the most likely deal the Blues will find if such a trade would arise) will benefit the Blues more than having Alex Freakin' Pietrangelo, then please argue that at your kitchen wall, because there no chance in hell I'm going to waste my time listening to something like that.

So I stand by what I said when I said trading Pietrangelo would put the Blues in a rebuild, because what else would it put the Blues in? No one is going to trade a blossoming #1 defenseman for him, and no one is going to trade a player that is better than him unless there is a stupidly large package involved or a GM was reading from the "Marc Bergevin Guide to Roster Building". And I do know that the entire point of your point revolves around the concept that if Pietrangelo walks for nothing, then the Blues would be in a worse spot then before. I agree to that point, only because it's not a real argument as opposed to a statement of fact. I just think it's a pointless thing to say because it can be applied to every top notch player on every single team. San Jose would certainly be in a worse spot if Erik Karlsson left for free agency, as would Edmonton if McDavid had a career ending injury involving a freak weed-whacker injury. But both ideas are not inevitabilities, so trading a player for something that might never come means the team is never going to be in a consistent state to succeed.

Your post seems to entirely ignore that Pietrangelo's skills and effectiveness will degenerate from age (you want to sign him until age 37-38) and that we can find anyone during that time who can match a degenerating Pietrangelo. There is one certainty: age will degenerate skill...the only issue is the extent to which it will degenerate skill in a particular athlete.

Reasonable minds can differ on the extent to which age will degenerate a certain player's skill so I will simply say "agree to disagree." I would not sign Petro to that type of deal and I predict that, if we do, there will be a lot of regret on this board starting in about year 2 or 3 of the contract (i.e, Pietrangelo at age 32-34). Indeed, I think it's doubtful that Petro will clearly be a top 20 defenseman in the league at age 33 (accounting both for Petro's downturn and the influx and growth of other young defenders over that 3-4 year time span).

Where would you draw the line on AAV? Assuming an 8 year deal (Pietrangelo from age 30-38), would you pay $9 million AAV, $10 million AAV?

 

[Dbrownss]

Tarasenko's shoulder may not be injured/inhibited or "bothering" him, but there's almost no chance that its strength is already 100% back to where it was pre-surgery. Virtually anyone who has had a major surgery will tell you that it takes much longer than the official rehab time for things to get back to feeling the way they originally were...often a year or more. That wouldn't necessarily induce him to avoid contact since the structure of the shoulder is solid, but any weakness would almost certainly affect his shot.

Berglund's shoulder experience wasn't identical to Tarasenko's, but it's notable that he also didn't shy away from contact during a span when clearly his shot was being affected by the condition of his shoulder.

I did think of Berglund over this. His shot velocity didnt seem down, it was just horribly off.

Visually, there just seems to be more then power/velocity. He's taking longer to release it and he's getting checked because of it. Not feeling "normal" could lead to this. I dont have personal experience with shoulder issues, I've only had hernia repairs. I dont know if its comparable but it is something that bothers me from time to time well after correction surgery.

 

[ezcreepin]

Weber for Subban was a trade that would've never been brought up had Montreal handled Subban better. They run out more players than Ottawa, and that was the same case for that trade. If you can find an equal or better player who is younger, then yea, you make that trade all day long. The problem is this is the first year Petro has shown struggles that are reoccurring. Any other season, and it would be a 1 game, maybe few shifts max that he looks bad. If he shows the same struggles next year, then I think you shop him pretty hard, but his past is more telling than his present.

Second, we are quick to forget that Tarasenko had shoulder surgery, one that most players take incredible amounts of time to get back into shape. Berglund did it twice, Steen once, and now we are watching Vova do the same thing. His intensity actually looks better this year and his passing is still pretty damn good, so I'd say the same thing about him as Petro.

 

[TerminatorBlue]

If you try to shop Petro next year you will pretty much get nothing just like Shattenkirk. Look at the shit return Karlsson got with one year left on his contract.

Honestly I hope they stay the course and see where we are by TDD, if we are out of the picture I see them unloading contracts for a rebuild. What other option would they have? Blues are not a big market team and missing the playoffs two years in a row while spending to the cap are losses I doubt ownership can keep taking. Sign Pietrangelo 9-10 mil per year on top of that?

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I’d rather trade Schenn or Schwartz for Stone instead of Tarasenko, fwiw.

 

[Zamadoo]

I’d rather trade Schenn or Schwartz for Stone instead of Tarasenko, fwiw.

Schwartz for Stone, prospect, conditional pick(s). Sick a Steen-Schenn-Stone line on our divisional rivals.

 

[Reality Czech]

Schwartz for Stone, prospect, conditional pick(s). Sick a Steen-Schenn-Stone line on our divisional rivals.

I am willing to bet that Ottawa fans would expect the Blues to add in that proposal, not the Sens.

 

[Zamadoo]

I am willing to bet that Ottawa fans would expect the Blues to add in that proposal, not the Sens.

Perhaps we would. I think they're very similar players as far as production, and Schwartz has some term to even out the value. An extended Stone would be another story.

 

[Celtic Note]

Tarasenko's shoulder may not be injured/inhibited or "bothering" him, but there's almost no chance that its strength is already 100% back to where it was pre-surgery. Virtually anyone who has had a major surgery will tell you that it takes much longer than the official rehab time for things to get back to feeling the way they originally were...often a year or more. That wouldn't necessarily induce him to avoid contact since the structure of the shoulder is solid, but any weakness would almost certainly affect his shot.

Berglund's shoulder experience wasn't identical to Tarasenko's, but it's notable that he also didn't shy away from contact during a span when clearly his shot was being affected by the condition of his shoulder.

There seems to be much less velocity on his shots. That seems to jive with what you are saying and it’s similar to what we say with Berglund.

As a vocal critic of Tarasenko, I will say that he has looked more like a complete player this year at points, which is a trend in the right direction. Once his shoulder is closer to normal, I expect his scoring rate to climb.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

I am willing to bet that Ottawa fans would expect the Blues to add in that proposal, not the Sens.

Yes they would.

Stone has 29 goals and 86 points in 80 games the last 2 years.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Too bad CBJ is first in the metro; either or both Bobrovsky and Panarin would be huge adds to the team. Panarin would bring it every night like ROR and Bobrovsky would be the first true starter we’ve had in ages.

 

[Xanadude]

Too bad CBJ is first in the metro; either or both Bobrovsky and Panarin would be huge adds to the team. Panarin would bring it every night like ROR and Bobrovsky would be the first true starter we’ve had in ages.

I would be positively ecstatic to get either of them wearing a note after FA next year

 

[TheBluePenguin]

If you try to shop Petro next year you will pretty much get nothing just like Shattenkirk. Look at the **** return Karlsson got with one year left on his contract.

Honestly I hope they stay the course and see where we are by TDD, if we are out of the picture I see them unloading contracts for a rebuild. What other option would they have? Blues are not a big market team and missing the playoffs two years in a row while spending to the cap are losses I doubt ownership can keep taking. Sign Pietrangelo 9-10 mil per year on top of that?

Most of the time you trade for a player like Petro or EK you hold on to some hope that they will resign with your team. Everyone knows that EK wants to be the highest paid defensman in the league, I think that drove his value down, a lot of teams knew that he was not gonig to stay no matter what so they just did not deal with it.

I mean the Sharks have Burns at 8m and Vlassic at 7m both signed for another 6 years, I do not think they are even going to resign him at 10-11m next year. I would think Petro gets 7 to 7.5 on his next deal, maybe someone over pays and does 8 to 8.5 but he still has a better chance to resign at his next team, that being said I still think his next contract is going to be here.

 

[Dbrownss]

Ottawa also wouldnt deal him to the East. So they tanked his value on their own

 

[Reality Czech]

Too bad CBJ is first in the metro; either or both Bobrovsky and Panarin would be huge adds to the team. Panarin would bring it every night like ROR and Bobrovsky would be the first true starter we’ve had in ages.

Too bad there is basically 0% chance that Panarin wants to play in St. Louis, but I agree it's a nice thought. I believe the rumors that he wants to play on the coasts or in a big market. If he isn't interested in Columbus, why would he want to be in St. Louis? Because his buddy plays here? I doubt that is enough for him to give up his big market dreams. And he wouldn't sign an extension before FA anyway.

 

[steinerecliner]

I would be positively ecstatic to get either of them wearing a note after FA next year

Too bad there is basically 0% chance that Panarin wants to play in St. Louis, but I agree it's a nice thought. I believe the rumors that he wants to play on the coasts or in a big market. If he isn't interested in Columbus, why would he want to be in St. Louis? Because his buddy plays here? I doubt that is enough for him to give up his big market dreams. And he wouldn't sign an extension before FA anyway.

I would say Panarin would came in if we where in a better situation to win but right they are not. St. Louis IS a bigger hockey market than Columbus. While the whole coast thing maybe a thing but how many coast teams are cap ready for him that is a real big Hockey Market? San Jose right now don't. LA isn't looking like a winning team so why would he go there if he can't win? Even that the Blues would have to clear cap space like the CA teams would to afford him.

 

[Dbrownss]

Panarin in NY is a thing.