Wheeler's 2020 NHL prospect pool rankings: No. 27 St. Louis...
Fair assessment of our prospect depth. That Krag is on the list is pretty sad. Interesting that Wheeler likes Zherenko more than they like Ellis, but he’s probably seen more than one random Vimeo video of him from three years ago, so I’ll gladly defer to that judgement. If Zherenko pans out somehow, that’ll be a very interesting development (can the Blues finally get a Russian goalie to come to North America??). Otherwise, with a few minor quibbles (Hofer should be 2nd or 3rd), this is pretty much how I’d have our U23 prospects ranked right now.
I also think that is a fair assessment. With that said, I'm not all that concerned about being ranked 27 due to the contract structure of our NHL team and the number of young/growing players we have who aren't eligible for this list.
He is correct that there aren't really any potential top end guys in our prospect pool at the moment. However, we have 4 of our top 6 spots locked up through 2021/22 in ROR, Tarasenko, Schenn and Perron. Thomas is arguably already a top 6 level player, even though we have the luxury of using him mainly on the 3rd line. He is at a 50 point pace this season, looks dynamic, is already adequate defensively and we are still 5.5 seasons away from the earliest possible date he could hit UFA. I have zero hesitation relying on him to be an above average top 6 player over the next 5 years. Kyrou is further away, but he still very much has the potential to be a top end guy in the coming years. Schwartz is due a raise after 2020/21, but it is probably one we can afford if Kyrou doesn't meet expectations and we feel the need to keep him.
Up front, we don't
need anyone from our prospect pool (as defined here) to be a top level guy. Over the next 3 years, the main contribution we will be looking for out of this pool are a couple guys who can be good middle 6 or bottom 6 guys. While the description of Kostin sounds critical, it is exactly the type of role we will be seeking to put him in. With Sunny locked up to an awesome contract, Barby cheap for next year (and then still an RFA) and Blais being a legit NHL guy (who will stay cheap due to his lengthy injury this season), there really aren't any big roles for this prospect pool to fill over the next 3 years. That is plenty of time to restock.
Same thing on D. Even if Petro walks, Parayko/Faulk on the right side means that there is major hole to fill on the right side that requires a top level prospect (and we might be able to rely on Reinke as a bottom pair guy). The left side is obviously weaker, but our top prospect on this list (Perunovich) plays on the left. It is pretty nifty that our top prospect just happens to play the one non-goalie position where we have a legitimate need for a top level prospect. Mikkola is also a LHD and he looked NHL ready in his few games here. J-Bo is aging, but will likely be capable of giving us good minutes next year. Dunn may not be the guy we hoped he'd be at this point in his career, but he is still very much a quality NHL D man who is cost controlled.
Obviously you want as good of a prospect pool as you can get. However, our mid-term outlook is much, much better than you would guess if you just saw that our prospect pool was ranked 27th. Army has done a very good job depleting the prospect pool in trades that help us long term rather than just short term.
Finally, goalies are voodoo. It's cool that we have a number of good goalie prospects on this list (plus Husso), but accurately predicting young goalies 3+ years out is possibly the hardest thing to do in sports.