Blues Goaltending

[Thallis]

I'm assuming you only watched that one game that we played against Chicago at the end of the season? If you are going to hold the goalie accountable, then you have to hold the rest of the team accountable when your goalies allow 2 or fewer goals in a game and you go away with no points. Go back and take a look. You might change your mind. The season didn't hinge on one game.

He had a sub .910 sv% on a team that was top 5 in shots against and high danger chances against. Those are pathetic numbers. If he had been just an average goaltender(not even starting goaltender) last season, we're comfortably in as 3rd in the central or 1st wildcard. Jake was god awful last season.

 

[carter333167]

Excited for Binny to get a game at some point.

 

[Brian39]

Excited for Binny to get a game at some point.

Me too. But I'm guessing that they will ride Allen until he has a bad game before giving Binny a start. We don't have a back to back until 1/7/19 and 1/8/19, so there isn't an 'obvious' spot to plug Binny in. I've given up on playoff hopes, but I fully expect the coaching staff to ice what they think is the best roster each night. I don't think we'll see Binny just to see what he's got if ALlen is still rolling.

I expect Allen to have another clunker between now and 1/7/19, so I'd wager that we will see Binny at some point soonish.

 

[GoldenSeal]

I'll wager that Allen has righted himself and will play well for the next few months. He's been playing like he figured something out

 

[BlueDream]

Allen has not righted anything.

You can rave about his last 10 games or whatever but his save % STILL ISNT ABOVE .900!

That’s horrible. The guy is not suddenly figuring it out. He has zero consistency.

 

[MissouriMook]

Allen has not righted anything.

You can rave about his last 10 games or whatever but his save % STILL ISNT ABOVE .900!

That’s horrible. The guy is not suddenly figuring it out. He has zero consistency.

I have to agree. All you have to do is look at the second FLA goal the other night to see this. He made himself really small protecting against a shot under his arms and then cheated off the post like he's been doing since he was in the AHL, perhaps even before. Despite the fact that he seems to be quieter in net and not sliding out of position as much, he has been absolutely awful on breakaways this season because of his approach. He doesn't seem to understand that the fundamental role of the goalie is to give the shooter as little net to shoot at as possible. This means staying on angle and in position, using proper form to make himself as big as possible in net, and knowing when to challenge shooters and take away more target and when to stay back to protect against a secondary shooter (i.e. - backdoor passes). We've seen plenty of examples this season where his defense has let him down and made his job harder, but that doesn't excuse the fact that he's not been good at all at the basic responsibilities of his job.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Allen has not righted anything.

You can rave about his last 10 games or whatever but his save % STILL ISNT ABOVE .900!

That’s horrible. The guy is not suddenly figuring it out. He has zero consistency.

One thing I've learned while following the Blues is you live that life in moments. Right now Jake is playing as he should. Let's be happy about that until it ends.

FWIW Jake needs a legit Goalie Coach to keep him and his head right. Whoever they got now should be fired and banished to wherever they came from.

 

[cardinalnation]

Allen has not righted anything.

You can rave about his last 10 games or whatever but his save % STILL ISNT ABOVE .900!

That’s horrible. The guy is not suddenly figuring it out. He has zero consistency.

Allen has not righted anything.

You can rave about his last 10 games or whatever but his save % STILL ISNT ABOVE .900!

That’s horrible. The guy is not suddenly figuring it out. He has zero consistency.

Not above .900 I will give you that, it is .899 after that last bad game. His career is .911. Not nearly the shit show some if you make it out to be. I honestly suspect they're awesome Brian Elliott fans here who are still a little butthurt over the way that whole thing went down. Some of you are going to throw Allen under the bus no matter how he plays. I mean there is just no denying he has been one of the better players on this team for the last month-and-a-half, and in fact I'd hate to see where they would be without him at this point.

I generally think goals-against average and save percentage are garbage. Is there a another goalie in the league that has faced as many wide open shots as Jake? 1/3 guy in automatic goals because the defenders are nowhere in sight? these are NHL players and when they come in with an open Man 10 ft in front of the net they are going to score more times than not.Blues backtrack and defense have been the worst I have ever seen in my entire life and I have been following for a long time. The problems on this team are serious and they do not start with Jake Allen. Now I am not claiming he is Mike liut, we still need some work on positioning. It may never happen but let's not act like this guy has been a sieve this year because he hasn't for the most part.

 

[MissouriMook]

Not above .900 I will give you that, it is .899 after that last bad game. His career is .911. Not nearly the **** show some if you make it out to be. I honestly suspect they're awesome Brian Elliott fans here who are still a little ******** over the way that whole thing went down. Some of you are going to throw Allen under the bus no matter how he plays. I mean there is just no denying he has been one of the better players on this team for the last month-and-a-half, and in fact I'd hate to see where they would be without him at this point.

I generally think goals-against average and save percentage are garbage. Is there a another goalie in the league that has faced as many wide open shots as Jake? 1/3 guy in automatic goals because the defenders are nowhere in sight? these are NHL players and when they come in with an open Man 10 ft in front of the net they are going to score more times than not.Blues backtrack and defense have been the worst I have ever seen in my entire life and I have been following for a long time. The problems on this team are serious and they do not start with Jake Allen. Now I am not claiming he is Mike liut, we still need some work on positioning. It may never happen but let's not act like this guy has been a sieve this year because he hasn't for the most part.

According to Natural StatTrick there are currently 65 goalies in the NHL with 300 or more minutes (the equivalent of 5 full games) of TOI using all game conditions.

-Allen ranks #32 out of 65 in High Danger Shots Allowed per 60 minutes
-Allen ranks #6 out of 65 in Mid Danger Shots Allowed per 60 minutes
-Allen ranks #57 out of 65 in Low Danger Shots Allowed per 60 minutes

He has been exposed to far more mid danger shots than most of the league, but an average number of high danger shots and far fewer low danger shots than most of the league. You question in bold above is a resounding "YES, there are plenty of others who have faced more wide open shots than Jake."

So what is Jake doing with these chances? Well, I'm glad I asked.

-Allen ranks #51 out of 65 in High Danger Save Percentage

-Allen ranks #23 out of 65 in Mid Danger Save Percentage
-Allen ranks #29 out of 65 in Low Danger Save Percentage

He also ranks #53 out of 65 in Goals Saved Above Average (he is -5.37; your foil Elliott is +1.61) and #49 out of 65 in Overall Save Percentage. The bottom line is that he has been pretty average at stopping low and mid-danger shots this season while seeing far more than his share of mid danger shots and far less than his share of low danger shots. He is seeing an average amount of high danger shots and he is one of the worst in the league (22nd percentile) at stopping them.

All of this pretty much jives with what I've been seeing. You can feel free to celebrate your 3-4 weeks of average to above average play, but the facts won't forget about the 5-6 weeks that came before that, nor will they forget about the fact that he has been a well below league average goalie for the entirety of his career. Facts don't care about your feelings.​

 

[Majorityof1]

How about we throw some actual facts on top of your "Drama Queen" rhetoric?

According to Natural StatTrick there are currently 65 goalies in the NHL with 300 or more minutes (the equivalent of 5 full games) of TOI using all game conditions.

-Allen ranks #32 out of 65 in High Danger Shots Allowed per 60 minutes
-Allen ranks #6 out of 65 in Mid Danger Shots Allowed per 60 minutes
-Allen ranks #57 out of 65 in Low Danger Shots Allowed per 60 minutes

He has been exposed to far more mid danger shots than most of the league, but an average number of high danger shots and far fewer low danger shots than most of the league. You question in bold above is a resounding "YES, there are plenty of others who have faced more wide open shots than Jake."

So what is Jake doing with these chances? Well, I'm glad I asked.

-Allen ranks #51 out of 65 in High Danger Save Percentage

-Allen ranks #23 out of 65 in Mid Danger Save Percentage
-Allen ranks #29 out of 65 in Low Danger Save Percentage

He also ranks #53 out of 65 in Goals Saved Above Average (he is -5.37; your foil Elliott is +1.61) and #49 out of 65 in Overall Save Percentage. The bottom line is that he has been pretty average at stopping low and mid-danger shots this season while seeing far more than his share of mid danger shots and far less than his share of low danger shots. He is seeing an average amount of high danger shots and he is one of the worst in the league (22nd percentile) at stopping them.

All of this pretty much jives with what I've been seeing. You can feel free to celebrate your 3-4 weeks of average to above average play, but the facts won't forget about the 5-6 weeks that came before that, nor will they forget about the fact that he has been a well below league average goalie for the entirety of his career. Facts don't care about your feelings.​

Wasted effort for its intended purpose but nice post.

 

[cardinalnation]

So I am curious as to who decides what level of danger a shot is? I mean is it based on distance or someone's opinion of whether a " average" goaltender would have stopped it? Regardless these new stats are highly suspect. Each shot and opportunity are different. There are literally zero plays exactly alike. You want to use these numbers to show what I said about him getting left out to dry too often or has played better than some give him credit for? The problem is hockey doesn't really lend itself to these percentages the way you think they do. You just can't quantify chance quality. You are trying to pound a square peg into an oval hole.

Hey I admit he is not Mike Liut and we could probably do better. I thought Allen might be the answer, I can see now that he's not ever going to be a star. Still too many holes in his game for the experience he now has. My main point was he in shouldering way too much of the blame here This year. The third guy coming in on the break completely open and defense should giveaways are just killing this team. I would point to how Johnson played for a reference. Now That is what a bad goaltender looks like with a bad defense. What Allen is is an average starting goaltender that flashes anywhere between brilliant and
Weak. Above-average puck handler that still can't get that hole closed under his arm and is poor on 1-1. That's cool I just think it's sad that people here think that Scott Darling is his equivalent. They are simply not watching. Every losing team has to have a whipping boy though so i get it.bottom line is if they don't clean up that bush-league back end play it's not going to matter who they bring in here between the pipes.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

So I am curious as to who decides what level of danger a shot is? I mean is it based on distance or someone's opinion of whether a " average" goaltender would have stopped it? Regardless these new stats are highly suspect. Each shot and opportunity are different. There are literally zero plays exactly alike. You want to use these numbers to show what I said about him getting left out to dry too often or has played better than some give him credit for? The problem is hockey doesn't really lend itself to these percentages the way you think they do. You just can't quantify chance quality. You are trying to pound a square peg into an oval hole.

Hey I admit he is not Mike Liut and we could probably do better. I thought Allen might be the answer, I can see now that he's not ever going to be a star. Still too many holes in his game for the experience he now has. My main point was he in shouldering way too much of the blame here This year. The third guy coming in on the break completely open and defense should giveaways are just killing this team. I would point to how Johnson played for a reference. Now That is what a bad goaltender looks like with a bad defense. What Allen is is an average starting goaltender that flashes anywhere between brilliant and
Weak. Above-average puck handler that still can't get that hole closed under his arm and is poor on 1-1. That's cool I just think it's sad that people here think that Scott Darling is his equivalent. They are simply not watching. Every losing team has to have a whipping boy though so i get it.bottom line is if they don't clean up that bush-league back end play it's not going to matter who they bring in here between the pipes.

It’s defined by where on the ice the shot comes from. It’s not a subjective statistic like you’re implying.

 

[cardinalnation]

L

It’s defined by where on the ice the shot comes from. It’s not a subjective statistic like you’re implying.

Which actually implies that it IS subjective. These levels are obtained by what distance the shot comes from?

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

L


Which actually implies that it IS subjective. These levels are obtained by what distance the shot comes from?

You have the time to ignorantly criticize it, but not to just look it up?

Here:
Natural Stat Trick - Glossary

This is scientific, based on the likelihood of scoring from different areas of the ice historically. It’s not some zany newfangled gimmick.

Anyway, what could be subjective about applying defined criteria to determine which danger zone the shot counts? I don’t think you are using the word ‘subjective’ the way I’m using it. No one is making a judgement call here.

 

[cardinalnation]

You have the time to ignorantly criticize it, but not to just look it up?

Here:
Natural Stat Trick - Glossary

This is scientific, based on the likelihood of scoring from different areas of the ice historically. It’s not some zany newfangled gimmick.

 

[cardinalnation]

Hold up I never said it was a gimmick. My point seems to be going right over your head so I will explain it to you. These stats are comparing one shot to another disregarding everything else. Stats are nice but they are not the be all to end all. None of them are. League historic averages cannot take into account the shots that Allen has faced this year. Or anyone else for that matter. We are just on two different pages as far as these goalie statistics go. Now tonight for instance Allen outplayed his numbers. However he did let it in the usual week goal which gives your opinion some validity. I just think there's a lot more gray area than you do. Maybe I am an old man, and I am used to the way the game was played in years and decades past but I am not ignorant. I have a pretty good idea of what I am looking at. For what it's worth the Blues would not have won that game tonight without Allen. His metrics will suck but it is what it is.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Hold up I never said it was a gimmick. My point seems to be going right over your head so I will explain it to you. These stats are comparing one shot to another disregarding everything else. Stats are nice but they are not the be all to end all. None of them are. League historic averages cannot take into account the shots that Allen has faced this year. Or anyone else for that matter. We are just on two different pages as far as these goalie statistics go. Now tonight for instance Allen outplayed his numbers. However he did let it in the usual week goal which gives your opinion some validity. I just think there's a lot more gray area than you do. Maybe I am an old man, and I am used to the way the game was played in years and decades past but I am not ignorant. I have a pretty good idea of what I am looking at. For what it's worth the Blues would not have won that game tonight without Allen. His metrics will suck but it is what it is.

You are (or were) ignorant of the definitions of high, medium and low danger scoring chances. Yet these are tightly defined and have a strong rationale to support those definitions. That’s specifically what I was referring to, not general ignorance. It’s just hard to take your comments seriously when you criticize these stats when you haven’t even taken the moment necessary to educate yourself on what they mean.

Anyway, I haven’t expressed anything more about what I think these numbers mean. That’s been other posters. But I think knowing how many shots a goalie is facing from areas more or less likely to be a real threat is very useful information. If you want to quantify it in any way, it will have flaws. But it lets us compare apples to apples and moves the discussion beyond two guys just comparing their subjective impressions. If we don’t use any stats, we really can’t say much about comparing different goalies.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Hold up I never said it was a gimmick. My point seems to be going right over your head so I will explain it to you. These stats are comparing one shot to another disregarding everything else. Stats are nice but they are not the be all to end all. None of them are. League historic averages cannot take into account the shots that Allen has faced this year. Or anyone else for that matter. We are just on two different pages as far as these goalie statistics go. Now tonight for instance Allen outplayed his numbers. However he did let it in the usual week goal which gives your opinion some validity. I just think there's a lot more gray area than you do. Maybe I am an old man, and I am used to the way the game was played in years and decades past but I am not ignorant. I have a pretty good idea of what I am looking at. For what it's worth the Blues would not have won that game tonight without Allen. His metrics will suck but it is what it is.

The "noise" of the uniqueness of each individual shot is lost over time as hundreds/thousands of them start to pile up.

That's a good thing, not a bad thing. The types of shots that Allen faces aren't as unique as you think they are in the grade scheme of things.

 

[cardinalnation]

The "noise" of the uniqueness of each individual shot is lost over time as hundreds/thousands of them start to pile up.

That's a good thing, not a bad thing. The types of shots that Allen faces aren't as unique as you think they are in the grade scheme of things.

When lump in with all-time statistics they do. I regret this unless you think the quality of the shots in the 70s, the 80s, and the 90s and so on are the same as they are today. I do not. you are basically preparing shots to Allen has faced too shots that other goalies face. Now I am not saying that these numbers are useless just that they are only part of the story. Everything in context. I feel this way about these goalie statistics regardless of whether it is Jake Allen or anyone else. A better cop would be another goalie playing with the 18 -19 Blues to me. Also not the Whole story, but a more fair peramiter. Can't help chuckle at the fact that Easton and I still disagree on metrics. Only this time in hockey. I admit I can be old school and a bit of an ass. Fun debating with worthy opponents though.

 

[EastonBlues22]

When lump in with all-time statistics they do. I regret this unless you think the quality of the shots in the 70s, the 80s, and the 90s and so on are the same as they are today. I do not. you are basically preparing shots to Allen has faced too shots that other goalies face. Now I am not saying that these numbers are useless just that they are only part of the story. Everything in context. I feel this way about these goalie statistics regardless of whether it is Jake Allen or anyone else. A better cop would be another goalie playing with the 18 -19 Blues to me. Also not the Whole story, but a more fair peramiter. Can't help chuckle at the fact that Easton and I still disagree on metrics. Only this time in hockey. I admit I can be old school and a bit of an ass. Fun debating with worthy opponents though.

Historical as in since they started tracking shot location.

They didn't chart shot locations back in the 70s, 80s, and 90s, so that won't be affecting this analysis at all.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

FSMW dropped a bunch of stats on air showing Allen has been a top-10 goalie over the past 6 weeks. Keep on Keep'n on Jake.

 

[cardinalnation]

Historical as in since they started tracking shot location.

They didn't chart shot locations back in the 70s, 80s, and 90s, so that won't be affecting this analysis at all.

Got ya. My point was going to be that you see a lot more people that can roof shots and hit a small spot like never before. The skill level has definitely changed. Players are better this year than last generally speaking. better than 18 years ago too but that certainly narrows the gap. I think Allen has outplayed his numbers in most of the games this year. If only it wasn't for that under the armpit goal or one on one goal per game. There are times when this guy looks to be very good. I can see why they have held out this long with Jake. Just one guy's opinion.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Got ya. My point was going to be that you see a lot more people that can roof shots and hit a small spot like never before. The skill level has definitely changed. Players are better this year than last generally speaking. better than 18 years ago too but that certainly narrows the gap. I think Allen has outplayed his numbers in most of the games this year. If only it wasn't for that under the armpit goal or one on one goal per game. There are times when this guy looks to be very good. I can see why they have held out this long with Jake. Just one guy's opinion.

I haven’t seen many on here trying to compare Jake to goalies from the 80s. They want to be able to compare him to other guys in the league right now, who could potentially be available.

 

[Mike Liut]

FSMW dropped a bunch of stats on air showing Allen has been a top-10 goalie over the past 6 weeks. Keep on Keep'n on Jake.

Yep, he’s been playing really well for a while now. He’s going to be the reason we don’t get a top 5 pick lol.

 

[MissouriMook]

Yep, he’s been playing really well for a while now. He’s going to be the reason we don’t get a top 5 pick lol.

Dammit, Jake!