Prospect Info: Blues 2021 draft

[Stealth JD]

There do seem to be a large number of high-potential defensemen in this draft. Picking one at ~ 12 OA wouldn't be the worst outcome for this season.

 

[Domme90]

Looking at our schedule its looks very possible we get a Top 10 Pick

 

[TK 421]

Ok so the situation with Vancouver has me wondering how draft position will be determined when/if teams have an unequal amount of games played at the conclusion of the regulation season. Right now Vancouver has only played 40 games. Reseeding for point % seems like the obvious answer in that scenario yes?

 

[MissouriMook]

Ok so the situation with Vancouver has me wondering how draft position will be determined when/if teams have an unequal amount of games played at the conclusion of the regulation season. Right now Vancouver has only played 40 games. Reseeding for point % seems like the obvious answer in that scenario yes?

Subject to change, but I believe the plan is for Vancouver to complete their entire 56 game schedule, even if that means pushing the start of the North Division playoffs past the start date for the other three divisions. If that happens, what you describe would be unnecessary as all teams would have played the same 56 regular season games.

Edit: upon further review, it appears your question was more hypothetical, but you are on the right track. It was part of the Return-to-Play plan that playoff seeding and draft order would be based on points percentage in the event that not all teams completed a 56 game schedule.

 

[DatDude44]

If we snuck away with William eklund or Carson lamb is I’d be a very happy blues fan

 

[DatDude44]

Guenther, Sillinger, and Beniers are my can't miss forwards for this draft, and Eklund is a wild card. Wow. Don't get me wrong -- Guenther is good -- but I think this speaks to how weak this draft class is for forwards.

Chaz Lucius is on my DO NOT DRAFT list, and I think Raty is ultimately going to be a forgettable (but not bad) high draft pick. I just really think this draft is going to produce a lot of duds, and that's not counting the COVID factor. Not a great year for the Blues to be pushing for a high pick.

Why don’t you like Lucius?

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Why don’t you like Lucius?

The best parts of him remind me of Zach Sanford + Ty Rattie. He has decent hands (Sanford), and can find the quiet areas of the ice (Rattie). He's not good defensively, though he is willing to backcheck (for what it's worth with his paltry speed), and his shot is just not NHL-level. His vision might be his best ability, but it seems limited to the OZ and even then isn't something that is going to wow you. A lot of his offense comes from 2-on-0s and having EXCELLENT teammates like Pastujov, Jack Hughes and Luke Hughes, Sean Behrens, Ryan St. Louis, Ty Gallagher, etc. setting him up. He can, however, score from in close (though I think this evaporates at higher levels), and has the ability to score on breakaways despite a muffin of a shot (though accurate both backhand and forehand). Lucius doesn't have much of a motor, and there isn't any stop and start to his game. I also see a bit of Tage Thompson in him when ti comes to drive (not good), and he doesn't have what makes Tage okayish: he's only 6'0 and doesn't have much of a one-timer.

His parents' started a school for him and his brother in order to develop his hockey talent, which isn't a problem in itself, but one of the many things that accelerates a players' growth is that as they get closer to the NHL, they get more access to world-class training talent, but Lucius has had that for a long time with results that are rather meager when you consider that.

Overall, I think the best case scenario is that he turns into a late-blooming middle-6 offensive forward, and worst case scenario is that he is a straight-up bust, and I think the odds of him busting is significantly greater than the odds of his succeeding, though it's still possible for him to put together a career. He just doesn't have the speed to be an impact in the modern game, let alone the game 5 years from now. He has to do a ton of work to even make the NHL, and having missed both an entire year due to a LBI and another year because of COVID, I don't see him having the time or drive to get that work in. It really doesn't help that he has a low-floor (he won't be an effective bottom-6 player without drastically changing his game), and, to me, his ceiling isn't that high, either.

For me, that means I hope the Blues don't draft him, or if we do, that we trade him a la Bokk and Thompson.

 

[DatDude44]

The best parts of him remind me of Zach Sanford + Ty Rattie. He has decent hands (Sanford), and can find the quiet areas of the ice (Rattie). He's not good defensively, though he is willing to backcheck (for what it's worth with his paltry speed), and his shot is just not NHL-level. His vision might be his best ability, but it seems limited to the OZ and even then isn't something that is going to wow you. A lot of his offense comes from 2-on-0s and having EXCELLENT teammates like Pastujov, Jack Hughes and Luke Hughes, Sean Behrens, Ryan St. Louis, Ty Gallagher, etc. setting him up. He can, however, score from in close (though I think this evaporates at higher levels), and has the ability to score on breakaways despite a muffin of a shot (though accurate both backhand and forehand). Lucius doesn't have much of a motor, and there isn't any stop and start to his game. I also see a bit of Tage Thompson in him when ti comes to drive (not good), and he doesn't have what makes Tage okayish: he's only 6'0 and doesn't have much of a one-timer.

His parents' started a school for him and his brother in order to develop his hockey talent, which isn't a problem in itself, but one of the many things that accelerates a players' growth is that as they get closer to the NHL, they get more access to world-class training talent, but Lucius has had that for a long time with results that are rather meager when you consider that.

Overall, I think the best case scenario is that he turns into a late-blooming middle-6 offensive forward, and worst case scenario is that he is a straight-up bust, and I think the odds of him busting is significantly greater than the odds of his succeeding, though it's still possible for him to put together a career. He just doesn't have the speed to be an impact in the modern game, let alone the game 5 years from now. He has to do a ton of work to even make the NHL, and having missed both an entire year due to a LBI and another year because of COVID, I don't see him having the time or drive to get that work in. It really doesn't help that he has a low-floor (he won't be an effective bottom-6 player without drastically changing his game), and, to me, his ceiling isn't that high, either.

For me, that means I hope the Blues don't draft him, or if we do, that we trade him a la Bokk and Thompson.

Do u think spending the entire summer rehabbing an injury rather than training and building his body might have a lot to do with some of his shortcomings this year? And scoring in tight doesn’t evaporate at the higher levels....in fact more of the outside scoring does(see MHL heat maps of where goals are scored from)

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Do u think spending the entire summer rehabbing an injury rather than training and building his body might have a lot to do with some of his shortcomings this year? And scoring in tight doesn’t evaporate at the higher levels....in fact more of the outside scoring does(see MHL heat maps of where goals are scored from)

The ability to score in tight is a great skill when it comes from driving to the net and playing hard, but his is more related to his hands and not being pressured physically at his level. If he had a great backhand, or was great at lifting the puck, then maybe, but it's really all from finding quiet areas and not being challenged physically. That will dry up -- he does not have a hard nose.

Does rehabbing have something to do with his shortcomings? I mean, I'm sure it does, but that can't be twisted into a positive no matter how you spin it. He's losing key development time for a player was already going to be a project.

 

[MissouriMook]

The Blues will officially have the 2nd lowest point total of the playoff teams, so picking at 18 OA is the most likely outcome. Only the Blues and/or Canadiens making the Final 4 can disrupt that unless they’ve changed the seeding process for this draft.

Edit: Correction - there is still a possibility of finishing ahead of Winnipeg in points, so 19 OA is still in play.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

The Blues will officially have the 2nd lowest point total of the playoff teams, so picking at 18 OA is the most likely outcome. Only the Blues and/or Canadiens making the Final 4 can disrupt that unless they’ve changed the seeding process for this draft.

Edit: Correction - there is still a possibility of finishing ahead of Winnipeg in points, so 19 OA is still in play.

So basically it’s either 17-19 or 29-32?

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

So…who’s it looking like the BPA around pick 18 is gonna be?

 

[BlueMed]

Im down to trade Perunovich for a first rounder this year.

 

[stl76]

Im down to trade Perunovich for a first rounder this year.

 

[BlueMed]

There's no room for him next year. We already have Scandella, Krug/Dunn, Walman, Mikkola on the left side. Sell him while his value is high now.

 

[TK 421]

So…who’s it looking like the BPA around pick 18 is gonna be?

I'm interested in two defensemen who could be available in that range, LD Carson Lambos and RD Corson Ceulemans. Either would be a great piece to add to our defense personnel. Not as familiar with the forwards right around there so no real opinion on them atm.

 

[Beauterham]

There's no room for him next year. We already have Scandella, Krug/Dunn, Walman, Mikkola on the left side. Sell him while his value is high now.

I really like Scott Perunovich, but to be honest, he's not going to get us a first. He hasn't played an official game in more then a year and no one knows if he's actually capable of playing in the NHL.

ps. In his years with Minnesota Duluth. Perunovich played some games as a left defender and some games as a right defender. In his Hobey Baker season he mostly played on the right side, so I wouldn't exclusively pitch him against Walman, Mikkola etc. I expect him to start the season in Springfield anyway.

 

[kimzey59]

I'm interested in two defensemen who could be available in that range, LD Carson Lambos and RD Corson Ceulemans. Either would be a great piece to add to our defense personnel. Not as familiar with the forwards right around there so no real opinion on them atm.

I'm coming around on Matt Coronato. Lot's of Oshie/Schwartz in his game.

 

[BlueMed]

We're picking at 18, but Arizona lost their pick, so we're really picking at 17th overall. My top guys in this area would be Cossa, Lambos, Ceulemans, or Chayka.

 

[kimzey59]

We're picking at 18, but Arizona lost their pick, so we're really picking at 17th overall. My top guys in this area would be Cossa, Lambos, Ceulemans, or Chayka.

There's no way I put a 1st round pick into a goalie with our current stable(Hofer, Ellis and Zharenko) and Binnington locked up.
You might sell me on Sergeyev as a mid-round project pick; but I don't put a high-end pick into a goalie any time soon(not until Binnington is to the mid-way point of his extension).

Just to stir some off-season discussion; IF Aatu Raty is still on the board when we pick, would anybody be interested in taking him?

 

[BlueMed]

There's no way I put a 1st round pick into a goalie with our current stable(Hofer, Ellis and Zharenko) and Binnington locked up.
You might sell me on Sergeyev as a mid-round project pick; but I don't put a high-end pick into a goalie any time soon(not until Binnington is to the mid-way point of his extension).

Just to stir some off-season discussion; IF Aatu Raty is still on the board when we pick, would anybody be interested in taking him?

Usually teams take the best player available. Personally, I would prefer if they take a defensemen, but it's hard to pass on Cossa with how dominant he was. His save percentage was 94% this year, and he projects as a future Pekka Rinne.

 

[TK 421]

Yeah the two goalies (Wallstedt and Cossa) are big x factors in terms of how the 1st Rd ends up playing out. I typically don't like using a 1st on a goaltender however there are goalies worth taking and these two are the kind that you at least give consideration to. In the Blues case this draft it would seem unlikely the team would take either with Binner just getting a 6 year extension but we need virtually everything in our prospect pool and a stud goalie prospect would be fine with me. My preference is to build from the net out and I think we're headed towards a rebuild sooner rather than later. With goalies taking several years more to develop than skaters I wouldn't be averse to using that pick on Cossa.

Lambos undisclosed injury is a fairly significant x factor as well. He's generally considered to be the 5th best D available but I've seen him all over the place in mocks so he could go anywhere from 10th to 35th depending on how a team views any potential health concerns moving forward.

I've had some time to research forwards but I'll save that for when I have more time to expound on my choices, lots of interesting forwards available.

 

[Oh Baby!]

Usually teams take the best player available. Personally, I would prefer if they take a defensemen, but it's hard to pass on Cossa with how dominant he was. His save percentage was 94% this year, and he projects as a future Pekka Rinne.

BPA is one thing, outside the crease. Goalies seem to develop so erratically and are so hit/miss .

Konstantine Barulin, Marek Schwarz, Hannu Toivonen (yeah not STL drafted I know), were gonna be soooo good. Jake Allen turned out the best. ( I left out Ben Bishop because it doesn't support my position here )

 

[Frenzy31]

Yeah the two goalies (Wallstedt and Cossa) are big x factors in terms of how the 1st Rd ends up playing out. I typically don't like using a 1st on a goaltender however there are goalies worth taking and these two are the kind that you at least give consideration to. In the Blues case this draft it would seem unlikely the team would take either with Binner just getting a 6 year extension but we need virtually everything in our prospect pool and a stud goalie prospect would be fine with me. My preference is to build from the net out and I think we're headed towards a rebuild sooner rather than later. With goalies taking several years more to develop than skaters I wouldn't be averse to using that pick on Cossa.

Lambos undisclosed injury is a fairly significant x factor as well. He's generally considered to be the 5th best D available but I've seen him all over the place in mocks so he could go anywhere from 10th to 35th depending on how a team views any potential health concerns moving forward.

I've had some time to research forwards but I'll save that for when I have more time to expound on my choices, lots of interesting forwards available.

I am not in a rush to draft a goalie. How much of a difference is one of those two versus someone like Ellis who lost all of 1 game this year? Granted he only played in 24, but..... I know it is good to have a goalie drafted every year, but I don't feel it is a hole in our system and would be fine taking someone in a later round.

Right now I feel the biggest hole in our system is defense. And if there are multiple players that fall into a tier - I hope we go d first. D take bit to develop and I would rather add a couple of D to your system. Forwards usually make the jump earlier and if we are going into a rebuild, I would rather add D now.

 

[TK 421]

I am not in a rush to draft a goalie. How much of a difference is one of those two versus someone like Ellis who lost all of 1 game this year? Granted he only played in 24, but..... I know it is good to have a goalie drafted every year, but I don't feel it is a hole in our system and would be fine taking someone in a later round.

Right now I feel the biggest hole in our system is defense. And if there are multiple players that fall into a tier - I hope we go d first. D take bit to develop and I would rather add a couple of D to your system. Forwards usually make the jump earlier and if we are going into a rebuild, I would rather add D now.

I understand your position and I already acknowledged it in my post citing Binners 6 year extension(along with a decent stable of current goalie prospects that I didn't mention). My preference is also to draft a D in that spot but depending on how the picks before us shake out that may not be the BPA. Could very easily be another winger we don't really 'need' yet that might be the smartest pick. I understand having preferences but ultimately a lot depends on who other teams pick up till that point.