Blues 2020 Draft Review

[DrSense]

Coming off of their first season of missing the playoffs since 2003, the Blues were looking forward to re-stocking their prospect base with both quality and quantity this draft. With only one 1st rounder in the last three drafts combined (overager Drake Batherson), the Blues came into the draft with 8 picks, but ultimately walked away with 13 drafted players after numerous trade downs. While quality was important, a litany of similar options had the Blues move down to focus on quantity more than ever, with their largest draft cohort in franchise history.

1.9 D Jake Sanderson. The Blues would have been hard pressed to pass on Holtz, who we presumed we had a chance at, but would have otherwise been happy to draft Raymond if he had dropped here. But the Blues had long coveted Sanderson as their likely pick, so there was no hesitation or thoughts of trading down. The Blues see a potential franchise defenceman that can become part of their core in the next 3 seasons.

2.47 D Shakir Makhamadulin. The Blues first trade down, as the team had hoped one of the German forward, Ridly Greig, Tyson Foerseter or Ryan O’Rourke would drop to #40. When they were all scooped up, the Blues traded down and nabbed the player they would have taken at 40 anyway, but presuming he would be around 7 picks later. A polarizing player with all of the skills a franchise D requires, Makhamadulin has not always been the sum of his parts, but remains the top Russian D on a team that has competed against the best at the world stage repeatedly, and he has also played very well as teen in the KHL with extended play there. The upside was seen as the highest of those left in the 2nd round.

2.60 D William Villeneuve. The Blues made a difficult call here, as logic and aggregated rankings had J-L Foudy as the logical pick, not to mention the Blues had already drafted two D. But the Blues coveted Villeneuve enough, that without a 3rd round pick instincts and gut prevailed, with Villeneuve the choice. As the top scoring D in the Q this year and also nominated as one of the league’s top D as a 17 year old, Villeneuve is the opposite of Makhamadulin, in that he is seemingly greater than the sum of his parts. With a hunched over skating style that leaves some wanting, and thin frame, he was often overshadowed by his team mate Jeremy Poirier. But as a pure hockey player, his impact was considerable at both ends, and the Blues believe they have a potential top pairing D in Villeneueve given his tremendous instincts, rather effective if not beautiful skating style and elite puck movement.

With day 1 in the books and three D drafted, the Blues adjusted their draft list nominally, but still stuck to BPA, knowing more D could flow with the 10 remaining picks on Day 2.

4.102. D Brock Faber. As one of the top defenders on the US-NTDP team, Faber doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, other than have a relatively complete package as a solid future NHL defender. With a late 2nd to early 3rd round grade, too much value to pass on Faber here.

4.111. LW Jamas Hardie. A 17 year old with 34 goals. I know there are warts to his game, but production like that is hard to ignore in the 4th round, so not a lot of overthinking on having Hardie as a solid mid round pick.

4.112. C Elmer Soderblom. And so the run on overagers begins. Soderblom was a player I had a 3rd round grade on, despite being late round pick of the Red Wings last season as July birthday. At 6’7, 227 pounds, Soderblom’s game caught up with his physical growth as he dominated the Superelit this season, and saw an extended look with a stacked Frolunda team. Huge upside, both physically and literally. Has shown up in the Wings top 10 prospect lists late in the year.

4.123 RW Ak Raty. A 5th rounder by the Coyotes last season, and a top 10 prospect for the team, Raty is best known as the older brother of Aatu Raty, a draft eligible in 2021. But the elder Raty was terrific in the WJC and Finland. Another July birthday.

5.133 W Valtteri Puustinen. Recently turned 21, the diminutive Finnish forward has emerged as one of the most exciting and explsive young forwards in the Liiga. Also now regarded as a top 10 prospect for the Pens.

5.135 G Vadim Zherenko. While passed over by the Russian international squads, Zherenko has been dominant in the MHL and is clearly one of the top young Russian goalies. Also a top 10 prospect for the Blues, having been drafted in 2019.

6.164 D Ruben Rafkin. A feist and effective D playing in North America for the last two seasons, Rufkin represented top value in the 6th round.

6.173 C Ethan Cardwell. An undersized, but very effective center who averaged a ppg post trade mid-season in the OHL.

6.174 D Isaak Phillips. A player noted in live viewings by the Blues GM, Phillips clearly has the tool kit to play in the NHL.

7.195 D Ilya Mironov. We’re getting pretty deep on my list here, and don’t know a lot about Mironov other than Button had him in the top 90, and other rankings had him in the 120 range. An overager who was an extremely physical and effective D in the MHL this passed season.

Obviously, the big story of this draft is nabbing 7 blueliners out of 13 players, including my top 4 picks. If I don’t get two solid NHL D and another serviceable journeyman for my blueline out of this draft, it will be a disappointment. The wild cards are the previously drafted overagers, all of whom have shown up on their NHL team’s top 10 prospect list. The hope is to get a couple of other hits out of these picks, so I can walk away with 4-5 solid NHL players, and a few journeyman that are usable assets in some way long-term.

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[HFNHLOilers]

I like Hardie i kinda hoped he had fallen to the 5th though im not shocked he didnt.

Will be interesting to follow. Sanderson and Villenueve.

I was stuck between Villenuve and Jurmo with 62 having just selected technically 2 lanky offensive minded guys in Cormier and Drysdale i went for the big 6'4 smooth skating Finn.

The Sanderson thing was an option for me at 6 if my father had not traded down drafted Rossi. I likely woulda taken Byfield and hoped Drysdale fell. If not i likely would have grabbed Sanderson at 6. I know Mckenzie the scouts he polled some picked him as the best defender in the class

 

[Hossa]

It took me a while to get it with Sanderson, but I really do. Especially after watching the Five Nations, where he was fantastic, I can see why he has a real shot at being the first defenceman off the board. Not totally sold on the offence, but even if all he becomes is Ryan McDonagh or Hampus Lindholm, that's well worth the pick at 9.

As for the rest of your bag of d-men, Faber also grew on me the more I watched him, and he was my top defenceman on my Day 2 list. He's actually kind of like discount Sanderson, and for a fourth round pick, has a high probability to play.

I'm less sold on Shakir and Villeneuve. Shakir's tools sure do pop, but I wonder about the decision-making. That being said, there are three d-men in that second round range - Wallinder, Jurmo and Shakir - who all have similar profiles, and one of them at least will slide into the first round. Well worth a gamble, even if he wasn't high on my board.

And all four of your re-entries were on my list, although obviously not as high as those I selected. So we're probably both happy there. Puustinen was the highest, and Soderblom was the hardest to figure out - if he'd done better in the SHL or Allsvenskan, he would have been a threat to go on the first day of our draft, and if he adjusts next year you could have a steal.

 

[DrSense]

Yeah, with Shakir, I read enough and saw enough to be convinced his upside is higher than others in that range. I also trust the Russian program to a degree when they covet a #1 d-man in their system, sometimes we lose track of how good that team is relative to US and Canada teams. The HFNHL draft saw 8 Canadian d-men selected ahead of the best Russian defenceman. I just find that simple value proposition too much to pass on when that Russian team has been so good internationally when competing against Canada and US's best. So it's the simple deduction that if the coaches (and most scouts) feels he is the best 18 year d-man in Russia, then his upside might be higher than the dozen d-men selected ahead of him, especially with that tool kit. There is always a Russian discount of knowing he might opt to play in Russia if his development isn't linear, but that doesn't change the upside if he makes it. It just means he is more likely to be unavailable and stay in Russia if his upside is only a third pairing guy, and I'm ok with that. And I did see all three of those guys similar too (Wallinder/Jurmo), but liked Shakir most. Plus, his name is really cool once you figure out how to say it and spell it, which is always an X factor with a pick for me. Byfuglien worked out in that regard too.

Funny, I agree on Faber being a poor man's Sanderson too. Was tempted to note that in the write-up, but felt too self-serving given i drafted Sanderson too.

For the older guys, part of it is just lowering risk given these have developed so much in the last 12 months. Still odds against them being regulars - like every 4th or 5th rounder - but just see their odds a bit better given the development they made in the last 12 months. For Soderblom, it's one of the few times I actually had some inside info on him, having been to Gothenburg this winter and spoke to a number of folks associated with Frolunda about Raymond, Soderblom and Torgesson. I just liked the way the Swedes reacted whenever they spoke about big Elmer. Frolunda buries the young guys on the 4th line when they come up, so not really a matter of production. Raymond got some decent ice time a bit during the year, but for the most part the kids play sparingly on that stacked team.

 

[Fan.At]

I absolutely like the Faber-pick here. He is the type of guy who will go higher in the NHL draft, I think.

 

[Hossa]

Yeah, with Shakir, I read enough and saw enough to be convinced his upside is higher than others in that range. I also trust the Russian program to a degree when they covet a #1 d-man in their system, sometimes we lose track of how good that team is relative to US and Canada teams. The HFNHL draft saw 8 Canadian d-men selected ahead of the best Russian defenceman. I just find that simple value proposition too much to pass on when that Russian team has been so good internationally when competing against Canada and US's best. So it's the simple deduction that if the coaches (and most scouts) feels he is the best 18 year d-man in Russia, then his upside might be higher than the dozen d-men selected ahead of him, especially with that tool kit. There is always a Russian discount of knowing he might opt to play in Russia if his development isn't linear, but that doesn't change the upside if he makes it. It just means he is more likely to be unavailable and stay in Russia if his upside is only a third pairing guy, and I'm ok with that. And I did see all three of those guys similar too (Wallinder/Jurmo), but liked Shakir most. Plus, his name is really cool once you figure out how to say it and spell it, which is always an X factor with a pick for me. Byfuglien worked out in that regard too.

Funny, I agree on Faber being a poor man's Sanderson too. Was tempted to note that in the write-up, but felt too self-serving given i drafted Sanderson too.

For the older guys, part of it is just lowering risk given these have developed so much in the last 12 months. Still odds against them being regulars - like every 4th or 5th rounder - but just see their odds a bit better given the development they made in the last 12 months. For Soderblom, it's one of the few times I actually had some inside info on him, having been to Gothenburg this winter and spoke to a number of folks associated with Frolunda about Raymond, Soderblom and Torgesson. I just liked the way the Swedes reacted whenever they spoke about big Elmer. Frolunda buries the young guys on the 4th line when they come up, so not really a matter of production. Raymond got some decent ice time a bit during the year, but for the most part the kids play sparingly on that stacked team.

I agree with you about the Russian value proposition, and it will be interesting to see how Shakir develops. There are remarkably few NHL defencemen who were drafted out of and developed in Russia - last year it was just Orlov, Gavrikov, Zaitsev and Lyubushkin, and as a Sens fan, we know one of them stinks. A couple other guys that to varying degrees were developed in North America (Provorov having come over the earliest), but still thin. But teams are also drafting way more out of Russia now than 10 years ago, so it will be interesting to see what the success rate is in 5 years.

 

[DrSense]

Ironically, I'm the guy who drafted Zaitsev and had to hold him for over 5 years before he finally came over. Maybe that's the reason I'm willing to get burned! Of course, Zaitsev was a later rounder, but still, it was a similar approach in that he was the top Russian D in his draft year.