OT: Blues #1 goaltender Allen vs. Hutton?

[MissouriMook]

Does anyone worry that we might give up Allen and he gets his **** together and becomes a top five goalie in the league? His numbers this year are poor, but he's been behind a very mediocre team. He's top notch against breakaways and shootouts.

I can answer your question with a question. Would you make a ring out of Fool's Gold? Because that's what Allen's hot streaks are, Fool's Gold.

 

[Brian39]

From the capitals perspective that makes a ton of sense if you can keep both in the short term to protect against uncertainty. However, what incentive does Grubauer have to sign a 2x $3M deal at this point? He took a 1 year, low cap hit deal for this year and he killed it. He'd already earned a chance to prove himself as a starter, except for having a Vezina winner ahead of him. He could command 4x$4M deal at this point, and be young enough at the end to sign a long-term career ending deal still. Even if he has to sit out this year to force the Caps hand, I think it would be financially in his best interest as opposed to signing another short-term deal for a team that is not going to commit to you.

Granted, I don't know what's wrong with Holtby this year, what Grubauer wants, and how much faith the caps have in Samsanov. There are lots of factors that play into it. I guess I shouldn't have said "definitely". But I think they will definitely entertain offers for both goalies and make a decision based on all the factors.



Ideally we would get Grubauer or Raanta for the same salary as Allen. We'd have to move Allen though. If we can't move Allen, we don't make a move and follow your strategy. So it won't cost any money either way. No way we get Grubauer for "cheap". He'd be a cheap starter but a very expensive back-up. I think he can command almost as much as Raanta, unless he signs a team friendly deal. Even though Raanta was technically the starter in Arizona, he didn't play too many more games than Grubauer.

Edit: just to be clear, when I'm talking 2x$3 mil, that's $3 mil AAV and not total value of the contract. I think we're on the same page with that, but I wanted to clarify just in case.

He wouldn't have to sit out a year. The Caps will have to qualify him with a one year deal worth his current $1.5 mil salary. If he is hel bent on a long term deal, he could simply accept that. However, that's a risky play. So far in his career, he has taken home under $2 mil in total salary. He has made less than $4 mil in total contract value since a number of years were spent in the AHL making $65k. After escrow, taxes, agent/lawyer fees, etc his total take home is certainly under $2 mil. That's a hell of a head start on life, but isn't anything extraordinary in terms of career earnings. $6 or $7 mil over a 2 year contract offers him a ton of financial security that he just doesn't have at this point in his career. Worst case scenario from an injury/poor play prespective, he walks away from the NHL with enough in the bank to comfortably live off of (assuming he isn't dumb with his money). That's not really the case if he pushes a big/long term contract down the road a year.

No one is giving him $4x4 as an offer sheet. Offer sheets don't really happen, so it would likely have to be part of a trade where a team gives up some asset as well. More importantly though, NHL teams will likely be pretty gun shy about giving an elite backup big money before he ever plays a game in their organization. How many times does high end backup play not trasnlat to 55-60 starts in the NHL? Look at what happened to Darling in Carolina. I think the model moving forward is to acquire the elite backup when he has 1 year left on his deal (or give him a 1 year deal) to see if he do it as a starter on your team and then give him the $4-5x4 year deal after he proves that he can start in your system. That's what the Oilers did with Talbot (although only a 3 year extension) and it's what the Coyotes are trying to do with Raanta. SJ traded a lot to get Jones but still only gave him 3 years at $3 mil per since he hadn't proven himself as a starter. F Andersen had 2 years as a starter (54 and 43 starts) with the Ducks before Toronto acquired him and gave him a 5 year deal, so he had proven that he could handle 50+ starts.

I just don't see teams giving out $4x4 deals to high end backups who put up numbers on other teams. I think those contracts are going to be reserved for your own high end backups who did it in your team's systems or guys who have proven that they can start for another team. I don't think he can get that type of deal this year and would need to beat out Holtby for the starting job on next year's $1.5 mil deal in order to get those types of offers. However, he would get a similar (or better) extension offer from the Caps next year if he beat out Holtby in the first year of a 2 year "prove it" contract. If he demands a trade now, I think he is looking at $9-$12 mil spread out over 3-4 years and is likely on the lower end of that spectrum in term and total value. The Caps would match any offer sheet with those types of numbers and if they don't like the value coming back in a trade they can force his hand. There is a ton of risk in sitting out or signing a cheap 1 year deal for a benefit that doesn't greatly outweigh taking the security of a 2 year deal that sets you up for life financially.

If I were his agent, I would certainly explore ways to get him a 3 or 4 year deal, but I would also advise him that it shouldn't be a hill he is willing to die on if nothing materializes.

 

[Majorityof1]

At $3.9M, an offer sheet only costs a 2nd. I gladly pay a 2nd and offer as many years as he wants at $3.9. So that is setting the stage for his compensation from Washington. If they won't budge off of 2 x $3, or 2 x $3.5, I guarantee he could get $3.9M for however long he wants somewhere.

In terms of trading for his rights, any team that thinks he may be their long-term starter is going to be willing to pay more in assets and salary than Washington who already has Holtby at $6M and one of the Top 3 goalie prospects in the league. As goalies don't usually go for much, I don't think it would be that expensive to trade for him. He does not have to sign the QO at $1.5M. The power of the RFA has dwindled as players have threatened to hold out, basically forcing a trade. If you don't trade them, you lose them for nothing. By not signing, he is giving up the $1.5M, but there is no risk his value would dwindle due to injury or poor play.

As an example, Schneider had 100 career games, no season over 30 games and a $4M price tag when the Devils gave up the #9 pick for him. Its not the exact same comparison because in Schneider's case, Vancouver signed him, gave him another year as back-up and then traded him. But for the Devils, they were taking on a $4M 27 year-old career back-up as their starter and paying a heavy price to do so. The cap has gone up now by over $10M since then, so as a percentage of the cap, it would be equivalent to paying Grubauer $4.85 with a $78M cap.

If you are Blues GM and could move Allen (or NYI/Buffalo GM and don't have to move anyone), would you pay $4M for Raanta? Is he any less of another team's back-up? He only had 45 games for Arizona. If he signs elsewhere, as the Blues GM would you rather pay Allen and pray he finds consistency or trade for a goalie that you think would work with your system and had success elsewhere? Obviously that comes down to price, but goalies rarely go for what Schneider brought. If we could trade Allen for Buffalo's 2nd and get Grubauer for Sanford, a B-prospect and our 2nd, would you? I do that deal easily, but I am more down on Allen that you.

 

[Brian39]

At $3.9M, an offer sheet only costs a 2nd. I gladly pay a 2nd and offer as many years as he wants at $3.9. So that is setting the stage for his compensation from Washington. If they won't budge off of 2 x $3, or 2 x $3.5, I guarantee he could get $3.9M for however long he wants somewhere.

In terms of trading for his rights, any team that thinks he may be their long-term starter is going to be willing to pay more in assets and salary than Washington who already has Holtby at $6M and one of the Top 3 goalie prospects in the league. As goalies don't usually go for much, I don't think it would be that expensive to trade for him. He does not have to sign the QO at $1.5M. The power of the RFA has dwindled as players have threatened to hold out, basically forcing a trade. If you don't trade them, you lose them for nothing. By not signing, he is giving up the $1.5M, but there is no risk his value would dwindle due to injury or poor play.

As an example, Schneider had 100 career games, no season over 30 games and a $4M price tag when the Devils gave up the #9 pick for him. Its not the exact same comparison because in Schneider's case, Vancouver signed him, gave him another year as back-up and then traded him. But for the Devils, they were taking on a $4M 27 year-old career back-up as their starter and paying a heavy price to do so. The cap has gone up now by over $10M since then, so as a percentage of the cap, it would be equivalent to paying Grubauer $4.85 with a $78M cap.

If you are Blues GM and could move Allen (or NYI/Buffalo GM and don't have to move anyone), would you pay $4M for Raanta? Is he any less of another team's back-up? He only had 45 games for Arizona. If he signs elsewhere, as the Blues GM would you rather pay Allen and pray he finds consistency or trade for a goalie that you think would work with your system and had success elsewhere? Obviously that comes down to price, but goalies rarely go for what Schneider brought. If we could trade Allen for Buffalo's 2nd and get Grubauer for Sanford, a B-prospect and our 2nd, would you? I do that deal easily, but I am more down on Allen that you.

Schneider had put up noticeably better numbers than Grubauer and had two seasons f the type of workload Grubauer has seen this year. As a former first round pick, he also had a better pedigree than Grubauer (for whatever that is worth. I think some GMs care and others don't). I think there was significantly more consensus that Schneider was a surefire top 10 NHL goalie than there is with Grubauer. Schneider's SV% in the previous 3 years were .929, .937, and .927. Grubauer's are .918, .925, and .926. Still very good, but not on the level of consistency or top end ability as Schneider with fewer games played over those 3 years (18 fewer starts). There was more confidence that an extension for Schneider wouldn't backfire than there is with Grubauer. I love Grubaeur, but he is not the same can't miss guy Schneider was. The fact that the Devils gave up a 9th rounder illustrates my point that the Caps are going to want Thomas for him and that's more than I want to pay.

You are correct that Grubaeur doesn't have to take a $1.5 mil QO, my point is that this is a much better option for him than sitting out a year. If he is hell bent on testing the market next summer for a long term deal, playing on a 1 year QO is better than just sitting a year out or playing in the KHL. Who was the last goalie to successfully start in the NHL after sitting out a year voluntarily or coming directly from the KHL? I can't think of a single KHL stud who has immediately been average-starter quality immediately back in the NHL and I can't think of anyone since Hasek to sit out a year and then come back as a starter. Doing that would significantly drive down the cost of his next contract.

No one is going to send him a one year offer sheet and risk losing him to UFA after giving up a pick. They would be talking multiple years with him and the Caps would match any multi-year offer sheet under $4 mil. That might be more than they want to pay, but giving him that deal would be better than letting him walk for a 2nd. There is a reason offer sheets don't happen and it isn't just fear of pissing off another GM. The Caps hold all the leverage here, which is why even though we're seeing holdouts into camp and the season, we're consistently seeing players bend and accept team friendly deals.

 

[Stealth JD]

It comes down to how badly do the Blues want to move on from Allen, and what are they willing to do to make it happen. Philly has bailed them out once with the Lehtera contract...wonder if they'd want to swap Jake for Elliott. Blues may have to 'entice' some team to take a shot on his athleticism. Buffalo perhaps? No contender is going to want to touch the guy. Allen is the most up & down goalie I think I've ever seen going from completely unconscious to completely unhinged hitting both ends of the spectrum in-season, guaranteed. I really can't see the Blues giving him another shot, unless no team will bail out Army from his mistake.

Caps fans were down with the idea of a top-6 forward prospect for Grabauer, and the Blues have those coming out of their ears. I think there are no shortage of guys who we'd trust more in the net than Allen over the course of 35-50 games/season ...the 'who' doesn't interest me so much as the 'how'. How is Army going to fix this goal-tending situation, and how many assets is he going to have to part with to get it cleaned up? The amazing thing is how deep the NHL franchise currently is, considering all of the assets that Armstrong has lost or sold on the cheap over the past 4 years.

 

[Majorityof1]

It comes down to how badly do the Blues want to move on from Allen, and what are they willing to do to make it happen. Philly has bailed them out once with the Lehtera contract...wonder if they'd want to swap Jake for Elliott. Blues may have to 'entice' some team to take a shot on his athleticism. Buffalo perhaps? No contender is going to want to touch the guy. Allen is the most up & down goalie I think I've ever seen going from completely unconscious to completely unhinged hitting both ends of the spectrum in-season, guaranteed. I really can't see the Blues giving him another shot, unless no team will bail out Army from his mistake.

Caps fans were down with the idea of a top-6 forward prospect for Grabauer, and the Blues have those coming out of their ears. I think there are no shortage of guys who we'd trust more in the net than Allen over the course of 35-50 games/season ...the 'who' doesn't interest me so much as the 'how'. How is Army going to fix this goal-tending situation, and how many assets is he going to have to part with to get it cleaned up? The amazing thing is how deep the NHL franchise currently is, considering all of the assets that Armstrong has lost or sold on the cheap over the past 4 years.

I think there are 2 potential starter-quality guys who may be available in the market in Raanta and Grubauer. Grubauer might not be made available as Brian has pointed out and Arizona is trying to sign Raanta. There are at least 3 teams that absolutely need a goalie (NYI, Ariz, Buffalo) and several teams that should be looking for a long-term solution or mid-term stop-gap like us (Philly, Blues, Carolina). A few older platoon-quality goalies may be available (Hutton, Bernier, Lehtonen), but none are ideal solutions. they are more insurance for another solution. If we are able to take one of the young potential starter options off of the market, those three teams may start to get more desperate. If we sign Raanta and Washington keeps Grubauer, Arizona, NYI and Buffalo will all be looking for anything that can look like a starter. Then Allen becomes more attractive when compared to bringing Lehtonen in as a starter. And honestly, I think Allen would do better in one of those spots then here.

I just don't think Armstrong has the balls to make a move without the other move in place. He won't trade Allen until he knows he will get someone else, and he won't sign someone else until he knows he will unload Allen. The difficulty of that timing makes me think its unlikely we do anything.

 

[mk80]

Something else that should be factored into discussion is where management sees Husso in the future. Kid was drafted with high potential and has adjusted well since coming to North America, and has been posting solid numbers in his two seasons over here. Would the Blues want to bring in and sign a long term guy like Raanta or Grubauer if they see Husso becoming a homegrown starter in the next couple years?

I don't see DA making a huge splash on the market for a goalie and think he'll let Allen have at it next season with us. That said, with a ton of salary cap space I also don't see the Coyotes letting Raanta walk unless he doesn't want to play there.

 

[stl76]

Something else that should be factored into discussion is where management sees Husso in the future. Kid was drafted with high potential and has adjusted well since coming to North America, and has been posting solid numbers in his two seasons over here. Would the Blues want to bring in and sign a long term guy like Raanta or Grubauer if they see Husso becoming a homegrown starter in the next couple years?

I don't see DA making a huge splash on the market for a goalie and think he'll let Allen have at it next season with us. That said, with a ton of salary cap space I also don't see the Coyotes letting Raanta walk unless he doesn't want to play there.

Agree with all of this. Folks can speculate all they want on signing Raanta or Francouz or whoever...but at the end of the day, Armstrong is most likely going to sign a veteran backup and Husso will probably spend another year primarily in the AHL (with the hope that he can get some NHL games next season and be on the team full time by 2019-20).

 

[Majorityof1]

Something else that should be factored into discussion is where management sees Husso in the future. Kid was drafted with high potential and has adjusted well since coming to North America, and has been posting solid numbers in his two seasons over here. Would the Blues want to bring in and sign a long term guy like Raanta or Grubauer if they see Husso becoming a homegrown starter in the next couple years?

I don't see DA making a huge splash on the market for a goalie and think he'll let Allen have at it next season with us. That said, with a ton of salary cap space I also don't see the Coyotes letting Raanta walk unless he doesn't want to play there.

I am a huge fan of Husso. I believe he is our goaltender of the future. I think signing a Raanta or Grubauer to a 4 year deal paves the way for Husso. I want Husso in the NHL post haste. I don't want him to be a back-up to Allen where he is going to have to carry the starter's load for Allen's month long implosions. So sign someone you think is more reliable to win games until Husso is ready. Husso can be the back-up to get some experience. Then cross the bridge of who is the starter when Husso makes a case for himself in a couple years.

 

[EastonBlues22]

We suppress shots well and I'd generally agree that we are a 'favorable team' for a goalie. However, I don't think our defensive style meshes all that well with Allen's strength's and weaknesses. I think he is a better goalie when he faces a high volume of shots and his biggest struggle is finding the puck through traffic. Our style ends up keeping the shot total low with a greater percentage of shots coming from distance through traffic. Another issue I've had with our D this year is that when it breaks down it turns into a complete disaster with a ridiculously high percentage scoring chance. I think a good percentage of both goalies' worst SV% nights were less about a poor performance than they were only facing 22ish shots but seeing 3+ chances that go in 75+% of the time.

I'm not trying to pin everything on D. Allen was not good for a long stretch. I don't think his poor stretch even approached how bad he played last season when he essentially forgot how to play hockey, but it also lasted longer and we haven't seen the peak we saw down the stretch last year either. Honestly, I do believe we saw a different Allen this year in terms of consistency. He wasn't nearly as up and down as he was last year, but his middle ground hasn't been as good and it has led to worse overall numbers.

The Blues have given up the third fewest high danger scoring chances in the league, so I'm not sure how that aspect of their game can be a complaint.

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Every team has defensive breakdowns that turn into high danger scoring opportunities against every single game. The team with the fewest high danger scoring chances against (the Stars) still gives up more than 7 such chances per game. The worst team in the league by that measure (the Islanders) give up more than 10.5 high danger chances per game.

If you (generally speaking) are not expecting the team to give up 7+ high danger chances any given night, then your expectations for the defense are just not very realistic.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Does anyone worry that we might give up Allen and he gets his **** together and becomes a top five goalie in the league? His numbers this year are poor, but he's been behind a very mediocre team. He's top notch against breakaways and shootouts.

He's been very good at "difficult" saves and below average at "easy" saves for quite awhile now.

The problem is that he, like virtually every goalie in the league, sees a lot more easy shots than he does difficult ones.

If you have a goalie whose save percentage is 0.05 worse than average on easy saves, but 0.10 better than average on hard saves, are you coming out ahead?

If the goalie sees 20 easy shots a game and 7 hard ones per game over the course of the season, you get the following math: 20 x 0.05 x 82 = 82 goals against worse than average on easy shots; 7 x 0.1 x 82 = ~57 goals against better than average on hard shots. The net result is a goalie that's actually 25 goals worse over the course of a season than an average goalie facing that shot distribution.

That's a hypothetical example, but I think it pretty accurately conveys the point. What you ultimately want is the goalie that lets in the fewest goals, and the easiest way to do that for a goalie is to be really good at stopping the sort of shots that you most commonly see (i.e. not "hard" ones).

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

He's been very good at "difficult" saves and below average at "easy" saves for quite awhile now.

The problem is that he, like virtually every goalie in the league, sees a lot more easy shots than he does difficult ones.

If you have a goalie whose save percentage is 0.05 worse than average on easy saves, but 0.10 better than average on hard saves, are you coming out ahead?

If the goalie sees 20 easy shots a game and 7 hard ones per game over the course of the season, you get the following math: 20 x 0.05 x 82 = 82 goals against worse than average on easy shots; 7 x 0.1 x 82 = ~57 goals against better than average on hard shots. The net result is a goalie that's actually 25 goals worse over the course of a season than an average goalie facing that shot distribution.

That's a hypothetical example, but I think it pretty accurately conveys the point. What you ultimately want is the goalie that lets in the fewest goals, and the easiest way to do that for a goalie is to be really good at stopping the sort of shots that you most commonly see (i.e. not "hard" ones).

That described Crawford and Talbot very well last season. Crawford constantly has great HDSv% and league's best rebound save percentage, but he struggles in the LDSv% department. Talbot last season made so many key saves and the Oilers never had to worry about him imploding.

 

[Stealth JD]

I guess whoever is the other goalie dressed besides Allen is the default #1, since Allen is very clearly playing like #2.

 

[Borderbluesfan]

I generally hate goalie arguments and try to say it is a team game, but tonight I have to say that Jake Allen despite his awesome physical skills is not an NHL starter caliber goalie. He has all the physical talents to be a great goalie, but he can't do the simple things on positioning and stopping bad angle shots. As a Blues fan, I want the Blues to move on from him.

 

[Ranksu]

Army have understand that he needs to get rid off Allen. Yeo strusting Allen is mindblowing.

I still can't believe Yeo didn't give change to Husso when Hutton was injured. Funny to say, but Husso might have saved Blues and Allen get fired from Blues.

Last 2 games remains and Allen games are on the line in Blues.

 

[GoldenSeal]

I agree. However him and Bill have had a very good last two offseason’s in my opinion.

People keep forgetting that we’re in a re-tool. Our old core is mainly gone, and will be completely gone in the next two years at most. However, we also didn’t really get much out of a few drafts and that didn’t help it whatsoever. Forward wise, our future core two years ago was basically Tarasenko, Schwartz, Fabbri and that’s it. Starting next year, we’ll be opening an entire new window, and having a good offseason definitely would help that window open even more.

Really, we just need a solid top 6C, and a veteran top 6 RW on a short deal as we wait on the prospects to season. I see Army getting one UFA guy and a trade at the draft for the other. Maybe you upgrade Allen if you so choose as well.

The Blues spend to the Cap every year now and Armstrong spends money as if it's his last dollar. Therin may lie the problem. Expect more enforcer retreads, 3rd line wonders and broken players far removed from whatever glory days they once had, it's how he rolls.

 

[GoldenSeal]

50+ years of the Blues and Blues management not being able to figure out how things work no longer surprises me, so Blues... surprise me: Make the Playoffs and start Hutton.

 

[TruBlu]

I still think Allen will figure it out at some point. He's shown flashes of brilliance, but he has yet to put it all together. That being said, I don't see him doing anything here in St. Louis. He'd probably do better with a change of scenery and, quite frankly, so would the club. There is almost certainly a loss in confidence with him in net. That would be a fixable situation if Jake didn't become a head case when this stuff happens, unfortunately, we've seen time and time again that he takes long spells to right the ship when his confidence wanes.

 

[Ulysses31]

may I change my vote? last night was bad.

 

[Alklha]

I still think Allen will figure it out at some point. He's shown flashes of brilliance, but he has yet to put it all together. That being said, I don't see him doing anything here in St. Louis. He'd probably do better with a change of scenery and, quite frankly, so would the club. There is almost certainly a loss in confidence with him in net. That would be a fixable situation if Jake didn't become a head case when this stuff happens, unfortunately, we've seen time and time again that he takes long spells to right the ship when his confidence wanes.

He has a lot of issues that continually show up; trouble tracking the puck consistently, rebound control, shortside goals, stick positioning and maintaining position.

He's generally pretty strong on breakaways, the time when everything is uncomplicated.

I'd be surprised if he went on to become a very good goalie, but I could see his peaks and troughs becoming less extreme. I don't think we'd look back in 5 years and be saying, "I wish we never let Allen go".

 

[Vladys Gumption]

I still think Allen will figure it out at some point. He's shown flashes of brilliance, but he has yet to put it all together. That being said, I don't see him doing anything here in St. Louis. He'd probably do better with a change of scenery and, quite frankly, so would the club. There is almost certainly a loss in confidence with him in net. That would be a fixable situation if Jake didn't become a head case when this stuff happens, unfortunately, we've seen time and time again that he takes long spells to right the ship when his confidence wanes.

He’s 27. If he hasn’t figured it out by now it’s not going to happen. Yes goalies take longer to develop but he’s in his fourth full season. We should have seen improvements by now. Instead we’re still seeing the same atrocious fundamentals.

 

[Note Worthy]

In JR's article, Allen's comments on the first goal:

Asked what happened on the goal, Allen mumbled: “It just went in.”

Allen comment on the second goal:

Asked if he was screened by Parayko or Chicago's David Kampf, Allen replied: “I don't know. I don't even know where it went in.”

You can't make this stuff up. I dislike this guy with each passing moment.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Take the money and run Jake. Keep running...right out of town. You are too cavalier in your comments and too inconsistent in your play. We need better, much better to be a contender.

 

[TruBlu]

If DA really wanted to get rid of Allen's contract, all he'd have to do is put him on waivers. As bad as we view him, some team would pick him up. The only problem is that we have no options for a starter. Even if we rolled with Hutton, he's never proven to be anything more than a reliable back up. I'm afraid we are stuck with the current situation based on the fact that there are no other options available.

 

[TK 421]

If DA really wanted to get rid of Allen's contract, all he'd have to do is put him on waivers. As bad as we view him, some team would pick him up. The only problem is that we have no options for a starter. Even if we rolled with Hutton, he's never proven to be anything more than a reliable back up. I'm afraid we are stuck with the current situation based on the fact that there are no other options available.

There are plenty of options available that don't include keeping Jake Allen as the for sure starter.

1. Re-sign competent backup Carter Hutton and pair him with Husso. Let it be an open competition between the 2 for starts.

2. Let Hutton walk and have Allen and Husso compete for starts.

3. Trade Allen, sign new starter and Husso backs him up.