Blowing it up

Rangediddy

The puck was in
Oct 28, 2011
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I'd keep Monahan and trade Johnny. Either trade him for another high end winger (Hall) or a couple high end prospects. But whatever we get back, we just CANNOT lose the trade.
 

Kranix

Deranged Homer
Jun 27, 2012
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I'd keep Monahan and trade Johnny. Either trade him for another high end winger (Hall) or a couple high end prospects. But whatever we get back, we just CANNOT lose the trade.
Trading him for Hall is losing the trade. Trading him for a couple high end prospects is losing the trade.
You don't win a trade where you're trading a star.
 

Dack

Registered User
Jun 16, 2014
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Stop pretending the draft isn't a complete shot in the dark after pick #2. Stop pretending.
It's not at all... you can regularly win at the draft by picking players with high NHLes and the younger for their draft year the better. It's not perfect but it's a hell of a lot more effective than traditional scouting, Bennett is an example of a player who should have been a star but wasn't, but when you waste picks every year not just on Smith's, Kanzigs, Jankowski's and Fischer's but also on guys who've never shown to be able of producing anymore than they have Joly, Roman, Mattson.

If you want to learn about it look up Byron Bader on Twitter, the draft is very much becoming a predictable event.
 
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Flames Fanatic

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It's not at all... you can regularly win at the draft by picking players with high NHLes and the younger for their draft year the better. It's not perfect but it's a hell of a lot more effective than traditional scouting, Bennett is an example of a player who should have been a star but wasn't, but when you waste picks every year not just on Smith's, Kanzigs, Jankowski's and Fischer's but also on guys who've never shown to be able of producing anymore than they have Joly, Roman, Mattson.

If you want to learn about it look up Byron Bader on Twitter, the draft is very much becoming a predictable event.


Drafting on solely NHLe is a really really bad idea. If you want to argue that it's a tool to be used in conjunction with traditional scouting I'd say there is some merit. But every single year there are guys with lower NHLe that make the NHL vs junior offensive superstars that don't have the full skill set to become NHL players.

And frankly, if it was that easy, everyone would do it.

Also going back to the worst cup winning centers in the past two decades, it very easily goes to the 2003 NJ Devils lol.
 
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Dack

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Jun 16, 2014
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Drafting on solely NHLe is a really really bad idea. If you want to argue that it's a tool to be used in conjunction with traditional scouting I'd say there is some merit. But every single year there are guys with lower NHLe that make the NHL vs junior offensive superstars that don't have the full skill set to become NHL players.

And frankly, if it was that easy, everyone would do it.

Also going back to the worst cup winning centers in the past two decades, it very easily goes to the 2003 NJ Devils lol.
I disagree for the most part it's very much that easy. Guys slip through the cracks and other guys get overrated but it's still superior to just the eye test. But obviously I'm not advocating for no scouting and all numbers but NHL scouts are wrong a lot more than the numbers are.

It's not exact obviously but it should be taken into account, when drafting especially later in the draft.


Analytics run the MLB now but there was a time when people would've said the same thing about baseball.
 

JPeeper

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Jan 4, 2015
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I'd keep Monahan and trade Johnny. Either trade him for another high end winger (Hall) or a couple high end prospects. But whatever we get back, we just CANNOT lose the trade.

If we trade Gaudreau we have already lost the trade.

I'd argue Hamilton for Lindholm and Hanifin is one of the only trades in history where the better player (Lindholm) was on the winning side of the trade and you could argue Hamilton is still the best player based on his season this year. Trades where you trade the best player almost always leads to losing the trade.

The most you can hope for is mitigating the loss. We traded Iggy and Bouw for garbage, the Duchene trade ended up being far better than it ever should have because Ottawa fell off a cliff and had the 4th overall pick and Duchene got traded away.
 

Flames Fanatic

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I disagree for the most part it's very much that easy. Guys slip through the cracks and other guys get overrated but it's still superior to just the eye test. But obviously I'm not advocating for no scouting and all numbers but NHL scouts are wrong a lot more than the numbers are.

It's not exact obviously but it should be taken into account, when drafting especially later in the draft.


Analytics run the MLB now but there was a time when people would've said the same thing about baseball.

I guess where I struggle with that mindset is look at the 2008-09 Calgary Hitmen. Out of their top players, not Sonne, not Bortis, not Kozun, but Michael Stone and Paul Postma have been the best of the bunch. Looking at NHLe that wouldn't have been the case.
 

Rangediddy

The puck was in
Oct 28, 2011
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Trading him for Hall is losing the trade. Trading him for a couple high end prospects is losing the trade.
You don't win a trade where you're trading a star.
Sorry, trading for Hart trophy winner means we lose? Hall and Johnny have been debated as who is better pretty much since Johnny entered the league, Johnny is not light years ahead in value, especially this year. If Johnny's give a **** meter is at an all time low and there isn't an expectation for that to change, his value isn't going to go back up to that of a 99 point player.

Also, waiting to trade him lowers our leverage and his trade value. Every season he gets closer to UFA, the less we will get for him. Also every season he gets further from a 99 point season, the less we get for him.

Listen, if this is just a funk and Johnny and Mony can get back to their pre-ASG play, I don't want to make any moves, I'd prefer they just figure it out. BUT, if their chemistry is in jeopardy, and Johnny no longer wants to be here and the league truly has figured out how to shut him down, then a trade has to be made. I'm inclined to think we're looking at the latter situation.

But what do I know? :dunno:
 

Flames Fanatic

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Sorry, trading for Hart trophy winner means we lose? Hall and Johnny have been debated as who is better pretty much since Johnny entered the league, Johnny is not light years ahead in value, especially this year. If Johnny's give a **** meter is at an all time low and there isn't an expectation for that to change, his value isn't going to go back up to that of a 99 point player.

There are so many variables there though. Hall is a UFA to be. Hall has 2 goals on the season. Hall has had a major injury since his Hart trophy. Hall is older than Gaudreau (marginally). Gaudreau has a much smaller cap hit than Hall will have even if he does re-sign with us. Gaudreau just finished 4th in Hart voting despite splitting votes with Gio (one single point back of 3rd place if memory serves). The gap simply because Hall won the trophy once isn't nearly as massive as you like to portray it.
 

Rangediddy

The puck was in
Oct 28, 2011
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There are so many variables there though. Hall is a UFA to be. Hall has 2 goals on the season. Hall has had a major injury since his Hart trophy. Hall is older than Gaudreau (marginally). Gaudreau has a much smaller cap hit than Hall will have even if he does re-sign with us. Gaudreau just finished 4th in Hart voting despite splitting votes with Gio (one single point back of 3rd place if memory serves). The gap simply because Hall won the trophy once isn't nearly as massive as you like to portray it.
Totally agree with you and I only mention the Hart trophy to say that Hall isn't some scrub. I'd prefer to look to the future and I'm losing faith that Johnny can be the guy to carry this team. I personally think Hall would do more for this team going forward than Johnny will so that is my rationale for being ok with the trade. I think we've all agreed that we aren't going to be successful in the playoffs relying on Johnny to drive the offense. A player like Hall plays a game more suited for playoffs.
 
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Dack

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Jun 16, 2014
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I guess where I struggle with that mindset is look at the 2008-09 Calgary Hitmen. Out of their top players, not Sonne, not Bortis, not Kozun, but Michael Stone and Paul Postma have been the best of the bunch. Looking at NHLe that wouldn't have been the case.

First off I loved the 2008-2009 Hitmen and Kozun maybe my favorite Hitman ever.

The way we look at NHLe as a player gets older changes, a 40 NHLe in your draft year is very likely to be an NHL player and a good shot at a star. A 40 NHLe at 21 with not much production in prior seasons and you might be an NHLer (but probably not). Sonne wasn't a producer prior to playing with Kozun (but was taken in the 3rd round lol?) and Bortis was an overager with mediocre production even that year, a far more physically developed player playing with a star (Kozun), similar to Dane Fox or Cedric Pares likely outcome. Kozun however is a player I would have been fine taking a bet on he was a little below a point per game in the regular season but he had a great playoffs went undrafted, had a breakout year and then was drafted as a 19 year old.

Stone was never actually disliked by NHLe. 0.5 ppg in your draft year as a D man is far from elite but it's not bad and he progressed rapidly putting up two Point per gameish seasons. Postma wasn't really an NHL regular to me he was kind of 7th d man material. Kozun didn't end up working out but as a 6th round pick that's a bet I would be happy with, one example of a very similar player statistically who does appear to be working out is our very own Mangiapane (though if he received more playing time he'd likely have been a top 60 pick on 2014)

IMG_20171214_130934.png

There's no guarantees but I think if a team were to consistently make good bets they've got a decent chance in the long run.


I do think teams are getting smarter and it's harder to identify the gems as eventually teams are going to stop letting guys like Debrincat slip to the 2nd round. I think NHLe has flaws especially with D-Men (because its seems to only be able to pick out the very obvious ones)but as far as forwards go I think using it as a guideline when drafting is a massive step in the right direction.
 
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Kranix

Deranged Homer
Jun 27, 2012
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Seriously. Even Ovechkin had some down years. Johnny is having one now and you guys want to trade him. Would you trade 26 year old Jarome Iginla? Because Gaudreau is the best player this team has had since Iggy, he's a star, and the best player they've drafted since when?
 

Flameshomer

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Advanced stats say that Monahan is just unlucky compared to his normal play, whereas they show enormous regression across the board from Gaudreau.
 

viper0220

Registered User
Oct 10, 2008
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Sell everyone and fire the coach, I burned the steak on the BBQ watching because the goalie was pulled but what does the idiot coach do? He pulls and puts Backlund and f***ing Reider out there.
 

DFF

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Feb 28, 2002
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Sell everyone and fire the coach, I burned the steak on the BBQ watching because the goalie was pulled but what does the idiot coach do? He pulls and puts Backlund and ****ing Reider out there.
Reider got first line ice time too...must have pictures of Ward doing illegal stuff.
 
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Mobiandi

Registered User
Jan 17, 2015
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This team should only be allowed one more coach. If it doesn't work out, might as well dump every player over 24 and start again because it's just not gonna happen.

Travis Green, oh what could've been
 

thaman8765678

Registered User
Jun 11, 2011
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This team should only be allowed one more coach. If it doesn't work out, might as well dump every player over 24 and start again because it's just not gonna happen.

Travis Green, oh what could've been
This core is a bunch of coach killers. They would have tuned Green out a long time ago.

Gaudreau, Monahan and Backlund all need to go. 20 million spent on players who do not care whatsoever.
 

viper0220

Registered User
Oct 10, 2008
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I'd keep Monahan and trade Johnny. Either trade him for another high end winger (Hall) or a couple high end prospects. But whatever we get back, we just CANNOT lose the trade.

If you are trading Johnny alone than you are going to lose the trade, you trade Johnny in a package. What would the package of Gaudreau, Monahan, Hanifin
land us.

It is better to trade Johnny in a package.
 

viper0220

Registered User
Oct 10, 2008
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I for one am disgusted at this blatant terroristic thread. Nothing should be blown up. How dare all of you who are participating in such filth! We have laws for this! LAWS I TELL YOU!


I don’t think we need to blow it up but we do need a major retool, we need a true # 1 center who need can carry this team if needed and a physical defence men. And a coach with a pedigree, I think Peter Laviolette would be the perfect coach for this.
 

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