I agree... that’s what that premium is... you assuming they would walk. You want less for that. It’s just a bold statement to think of a trade with a UFA to assume they would bolt at the end of the year. With that sentiment, you wouldn’t see any UFA contract year players being traded which, obviously, is not that case.
It’s not bad management to assume they would sign... lol... that’s why you’d make the trade for them... based on your logic SJS made a grave decision trading for Karlsson.
EDM may be a rocky place... I guess that’s why you’re assuming UFA players would walk away from EDM, but people want to play with a guy like McDavid. Stone would be lucky to be his RW. He “would” stay there for that role. Duchene plays better when being sheltered. That’s why he was so good in COL and not as good with OTT. He may want the limelight, but he’s better in a more open role instead of playing top lines. Playing behind McDavid is great for him too. Why wouldn’t Malkin walk someone to be their 1C? Playing Behind Crosby makes him that much more dangerous too.
I’m not necessarily saying everything that you’re stating is incorrect, I’m just challenging the thought behind it.