Blake Wheeler at Five . . .wow

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Tkachuk was a late first rounder though (albiet in a strong draft compaired to a five in a week one.)

I'm commiting Blasphemy here, but I've never been impressed with Gretzky as manager. When he was shadow GM of the Kings it was an oilers old boys club marked by alot of bad trades. His Olympic team was a bunch of freinds he let Quinn start CuJo and took on Lindros and Fluery ahead of Thorton and got a big assist from Belarus.

Draper is a great scout Flecher's "Draft Scmaft" comment says it all about him, Phoenix could have traded down I'm sure and picked up SOMETHING. Look at what Dallas did at the end of the first.
 

Vlad The Impaler

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Hasbro said:
I'm commiting Blasphemy here, but I've never been impressed with Gretzky as manager.

It's not blasphemy, it's truth.

He and Mario are living proof that supreme talent and smarts on ice don't automatically equate to the same for personnel decisions.
 

timlap

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It was a risky pick. If it works out they'll look like geniuses.

If it were me I would have taken Tukonen, but what do I know? Very little.

Regarding Phoenix's scouting situation- I believe Draper is considered a pretty high end scout- Pierre McGuire spoke very highly of him fwiw.
 

Histrion

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timlap said:
It was a risky pick. If it works out they'll look like geniuses.

No, it wouldn't make them look like geniuses for a very simple reason; this is too risky. I don't have any problem with taking a risk once in a while but this is crossing the border, it isn't a risk anymore, it's just plain stupid.

Even if Wheeler pans out and become a total stud, they still would have made a way better job by trading down a bit and getting Wheeler and then another pick or two. Now that would have a been a good move, the risk would have been smaller and the potential benifits much higher.

That was a total reach. A Milbury-esque move might I say..
 

mazmin

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Wheeler was their guy and they got him. They could have easily traded down two or three spots and gotten a 3rd rounder, or whatever... but this shows the confidence they have in him. This kid is going to take his training very seriously now that he knows he can potentially make a good deal of money in the NHL. He is obviously at least 4 years away but I remember waiting around for a guy called Selanne and boy did he make an immediate impact.

Don't be so quick to bash Gretzky or the Yotes franchise, and always remember...


THEY KNOW BETTER THAN YOU.
 

timlap

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awesome` said:
No, it wouldn't make them look like geniuses for a very simple reason; this is too risky. I don't have any problem with taking a risk once in a while but this is crossing the border, it isn't a risk anymore, it's just plain stupid.

Even if Wheeler pans out and become a total stud, they still would have made a way better job by trading down a bit and getting Wheeler and then another pick or two. Now that would have a been a good move, the risk would have been smaller and the potential benifits much higher.

That was a total reach. A Milbury-esque move might I say..


Milbury-esque for sure. But I still say people will be calling them geniuses if Wheeler turns into a total stud.

Trading down is risky too- it is possible that another team was going to take a stab at Wheeler too. We can't know for sure and neither could Phoenix.

Also, we fans make trades as if it were the easiest thing in the world- its not necessarily so simple.

Ultimately they will be judged by Wheeler's success. However in the meantime they can expect to be questioned a great deal.
 

IFK

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XavierX said:
Time will tell, and the consensus is that this is essentially a 2005 draft pick (youngest player in the draft) and since there will be a lockout, he will have a free year to develop.

Tukonen is 2 day younger than Wheeler.
 

Vlad The Impaler

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awesome` said:
Even if Wheeler pans out and become a total stud, they still would have made a way better job by trading down a bit and getting Wheeler and then another pick or two. Now that would have a been a good move, the risk would have been smaller and the potential benifits much higher.

So, what you're saying essentially is that, people should waste their time to squeeze extra junk picks and gamble on losing the total stud?

Not necessarly better management. Not if you lose him.

If you're sold on a guy so much, then you just should not risk losing him. Junk picks are just extra crap. It's not needed if you perceive the talent drop (if you lose your guy) as being too big.
 

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Wheeler is going to want to be paid like the number 5 too, giving some ground might have saved some bucks.

Grabbing some lower round picks isn't the worst thing, sure it's low percentage, but a couple more swings at bat never hurt.
 

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It strikes me as funny that so many people are all over the Coyote for taking the kid and yet so often in previous drafts someone makes a bold (and sometimes stupid) move. Soemtimes it really pays off. The Flames were roasted for their selection of Morris in '96, the Flyers were in '91 for screwing up my mock and going with some mid-2nd rounder (if you read CSB and THN) named Forsberg at #6. Likewise, others have reached and failed (literally too many to name). But until this kid at least turns pro, there isn't a lot that can be said about it other than it is a risk.
 

Histrion

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Vlad The Impaler said:
So, what you're saying essentially is that, people should waste their time to squeeze extra junk picks and gamble on losing the total stud?

Not necessarly better management. Not if you lose him.

If you're sold on a guy so much, then you just should not risk losing him. Junk picks are just extra crap. It's not needed if you perceive the talent drop (if you lose your guy) as being too big.

If you perceive the risk that the guy you want will be drafted by the time you pick with the pick you traded for, then you just don't go for it that's for sure. However, we often see teams doing that, like Colombus did with Florida for Fleury and JayBo. The situation isn't exactly the same, but that's the same concept: getting more than just the guy you want.

But of course, if it's not totally obvious that the guy will still be there, you don't take the risk. In that very situation, I THINK that he could have moved down 3-4 spot without taking too much of a risk. Of course, I could be wrong since I don't have inside infos.
 

PhoPhan

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There are plenty of bad things that you can say about the pick (and I said most of them immediately afterwards) but Wheeler isn't a terrible pick. No one was sure if Tukonen was all that great, or was a product of playing with Nokelainen and Korpikoski. Olesz limited upside has been well publicized. Radulov and Schremp would have been reaches, too, and they have more bust potential. Montoya was obviously not what they were looking for, as I said all along. I'll be honest, the pick surprised me, but when they got on the clock, I bowed my head and whispered repeatedly "Don't screw up". However, the more about Wheeler I read, the more I like him. I have high hopes, but I keep thinking he could very well be another Gratton.
 

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PhoPhan said:
There are plenty of bad things that you can say about the pick (and I said most of them immediately afterwards) but Wheeler isn't a terrible pick. No one was sure if Tukonen was all that great, or was a product of playing with Nokelainen and Korpikoski. Olesz limited upside has been well publicized. Radulov and Schremp would have been reaches, too, and they have more bust potential. Montoya was obviously not what they were looking for, as I said all along. I'll be honest, the pick surprised me, but when they got on the clock, I bowed my head and whispered repeatedly "Don't screw up". However, the more about Wheeler I read, the more I like him. I have high hopes, but I keep thinking he could very well be another Gratton.


Wheeler's a project, plain and simple. He'll have several years to mature, and that's a good or bad thing, depending on how you look at it. He's got great size and scoring ability, is a good skater, doesn't shy from the rough stuff, and will be going to a great program in Minnesota. Alot of positives IMO.
 

Legionnaire

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Vlad The Impaler said:
It's not blasphemy, it's truth.

He and Mario are living proof that supreme talent and smarts on ice don't automatically equate to the same for personnel decisions.

Well I can agree whit what you said here, but no overall. Who are we to question the best forward ever? He hasn't be GM(and I use this loosely) to really judge.
 

sunb

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Chainshot said:
It strikes me as funny that so many people are all over the Coyote for taking the kid and yet so often in previous drafts someone makes a bold (and sometimes stupid) move. Soemtimes it really pays off. The Flames were roasted for their selection of Morris in '96, the Flyers were in '91 for screwing up my mock and going with some mid-2nd rounder (if you read CSB and THN) named Forsberg at #6. Likewise, others have reached and failed (literally too many to name). But until this kid at least turns pro, there isn't a lot that can be said about it other than it is a risk.

Exactly! I agree with everything in that post.

Except!

Forsberg was slated to go #7th overall had the Flyers not taken him at 6. The Canucks had the #7 pick and was so sure that they were going to get him, they had some Forsberg jerseys pre-made leading up to the draft. Forsberg had some hype too. The Flyers' head scout in Europe even hinted that Forsberg should go 1st overall, ahead of the unbelievably-touted Lindros!

I like the Aristotle quote btw as well.
 

Amen evil king

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I don't think Phoenix had much choice. They obviously really wanted the guy, and trading down could of come back to haunt them.. He does sound pretty good.
 

Flonaldo

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PhoPhan said:
No one was sure if Tukonen was all that great, or was a product of playing with Nokelainen and Korpikoski.
Tukonen wasn't playing with either of those when he grabbed a regular spot playing for the Blues in the SM-liiga, and playing very well - highly rare for a 17 year old. He wasn't playing with them in the WJC's and he surely wasn't playing with them when he grabbed a spot on a Tier II team playing against men at the tender age of 15.

"Losing a total stud"? Last I checked Wheeler wasn't Ovetshkin, and neither was he a sure thing. He's never played against anyone other than highschoolers. Sure, your skills can seem awesome when you have no opposition. Can he make the transition when you take away his time and space? Others have shown that they can, Wheeler hasn't. I'm sure guys like Tukonen and co. would look pretty darn special if they were beating up on 140lb 15yo kids, now they're playing against guys like Sami Helenius.

Even if Wheeler turns out to be the real thing, there's not going to be huge dropoff between him and what the Yotes could've picked up with a later 1st rd pick had Wheeler been taken before them.
 

dumpnchase

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Lehtonen32 said:
I don't think Phoenix had much choice. They obviously really wanted the guy, and trading down could of come back to haunt them.. He does sound pretty good.

Only three teams could have wanted realistically picked him,

Phoenix (which they did)
NYR (use their last pick on him and take a chance)
NYI (it's Mad Mike so he'll find a way to screw up, I think he was looking at Boris Valabik and not Wheeler or Smid.)
Wash (use one of their last picks on him and take a chance)

From ALL the scouting agencies the consensus was that he used his size to his advantage at high school and they don't know if he could do the same at a higher level. That's a big IF for a guy you pick with the 5th overall pick. Had Phoenix traded down a couple of picks they would have still gotten him plus at least a second rounder. Which would have allowed them to pick Wheeler and another guy who could be a safe pick or another project.

I would have taken Tukonen / Schremp but that's just me.
 

PhoPhan

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Flonaldo said:
Tukonen wasn't playing with either of those when he grabbed a regular spot playing for the Blues in the SM-liiga, and playing very well - highly rare for a 17 year old. He wasn't playing with them in the WJC's and he surely wasn't playing with them when he grabbed a spot on a Tier II team playing against men at the tender age of 15.

Tukonen was excellent before the U-18's, but he really got noticed because of his line's performance there. At first, everyone thought he was carrying the line, but it soon became difficult to determine just who was the catalyst of the line (which led to Korpikoski and Nokelainen rising on the boards).

dumpnchase said:
From ALL the scouting agencies the consensus was that he used his size to his advantage at high school and they don't know if he could do the same at a higher level. That's a big IF for a guy you pick with the 5th overall pick. Had Phoenix traded down a couple of picks they would have still gotten him plus at least a second rounder. Which would have allowed them to pick Wheeler and another guy who could be a safe pick or another project.
Of course he used his size to his advantage. I'd be worried if he didn't. I like my players physical, especially when they are 6'5". Obviously it will be tougher to do in college/juniors, but there is obviously potential there. When a kid is that big, he can use his size at any level. If he puts on some weight (which a college regimen would certainly help with), and fills out to about 220-230 lbs., he could be just as dominant in the NHL. The best part of taking such a big kid is that at the very least, he could become a 4th liner based on size alone.
 

Flonaldo

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PhoPhan said:
Tukonen was excellent before the U-18's, but he really got noticed because of his line's performance there. At first, everyone thought he was carrying the line, but it soon became difficult to determine just who was the catalyst of the line (which led to Korpikoski and Nokelainen rising on the boards).
Noticed by who? Tukonen was slated as a mid 1st rounder even before the season started and everyone Finland has been talking about him for over two years now. Nokelainen rose from a 2nd rounder to a 1st rounder based on the U18's and Korpikoski came out of nowhere based on those games. To me, it doesn't matter who carries a line for a couple of games. The players' abilities and how they might translate to the NHL level is all that matters.
PhoPhan said:
Of course he used his size to his advantage. I'd be worried if he didn't. I like my players physical, especially when they are 6'5". Obviously it will be tougher to do in college/juniors, but there is obviously potential there. When a kid is that big, he can use his size at any level. If he puts on some weight (which a college regimen would certainly help with), and fills out to about 220-230 lbs., he could be just as dominant in the NHL. The best part of taking such a big kid is that at the very least, he could become a 4th liner based on size alone.
Yes, he's big. So are hundreds of other players who didn't get picked at all. Even if you're 6"5' (or even 6"8' for that matter) it doesn't mean that size will be of any use to you at a higher (or highest) level.

I don't think Wheeler excelled in HS hockey so much because of his size but more because the other players are less skilled, slower, less agile, younger, not ready or schooled - and smaller. All that combined meant that Wheeler always had the time and space to do whatever he wanted.

Filling out is pretty much the last I would worry about when talking about a prospects' progress. There are dozens of other things that are more important than gaining 20 pounds. And no, no-one becomes even a 4th liner just on size.
 

PhoPhan

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Flonaldo said:
Noticed by who? Tukonen was slated as a mid 1st rounder even before the season started and everyone Finland has been talking about him for over two years now. Nokelainen rose from a 2nd rounder to a 1st rounder based on the U18's and Korpikoski came out of nowhere based on those games. To me, it doesn't matter who carries a line for a couple of games.
I agree with you, I was hoping the Coyotes would take Tukonen in all honesty. However, after the U-18's, his upside was questioned. Not by you or me, but by scouts.

Flonaldo said:
I don't think Wheeler excelled in HS hockey so much because of his size but more because the other players are less skilled, slower, less agile, younger, not ready or schooled - and smaller. All that combined meant that Wheeler always had the time and space to do whatever he wanted.

Filling out is pretty much the last I would worry about when talking about a prospects' progress. There are dozens of other things that are more important than gaining 20 pounds. And no, no-one becomes even a 4th liner just on size.

No, I didn't mean that. I meant he is skilled enough to, even if he never becomes the first line power forward they are hoping for, to become a 4th line bruiser. Obviously not *any* big guy can do it, but Wheeler isn't just *any* big guy.
 

CREW99AW

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dumpnchase said:
NYI (it's Mad Mike so he'll find a way to screw up, I think he was looking at Boris Valabik and not Wheeler or Smid.)


3 days before the draft Milbury was quoted saying the sleeper the isles wanted was close to being nhl ready.

One of the predraft articles on Smid said Smid was close to being nhl ready.

scouting reports on Valibik's say he a project player.He'll have to work hard the next few yrs on his skating.

Wheeler's a high school senior who says he's going to college.
 

kenabnrmal

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The first round is all about finding a guy you think is going to be a star, and drafting him. All I heard leading up to the draft was how after the first two or three picks, the talent level really dropped off. Yes, the lists build this sort of concensus opinion among scouts, but how sure can we possibly be that Wheeler was going to be around if the Yotes traded down. The criticisms levied at Gretzky and Co. are pretty off-base imo. Mostly since a) most of the people criticizing them have not seen Wheeler play, nor most of the other prospects in the draft, and b) none of us know what information the Yotes were working with. They wanted their guy, they got their guy, plain and simple. It isn't a "huge risk", because outside of the first three picks, no one is a guarantee to make the league.
 

ceber

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There is a chance the Wild were looking at him at 12, too. The scout who covers MN (Glen Sonmor) was pretty high on him, from what I understand.
Also, the announcers knocked the talent level of Breck a bit too much on tv, and I think people here are discounting MN high school hockey more than it deserves.
Another also, Wheeler didn't just play for Breck: http://www.hselitehockey.com/

Is it a reach at 5? I'd say yes. Is it crazy? I'd say no.
 
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