Post-Game Talk: Blackhawks 6, Bryan Rust 3, Penguins 0 - At Least It Wasn't 10-2

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Pancakes

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See, I just don't agree with this. Get this team clicking in all cylinders and it will murder any team it faces. I truly believe that. You still have areas you need to upgrade, but those upgrades are going from Brassard to a 3C who fits better or Maatta to a stronger skating PMD. They're not going from say Greg McKegg to Sheahan.

I'm just not sure we'll ever get rolling to the degree you want with the defense we have in place. Oleksiak and Maatta are just so bad, and JJ is meh. Pettersson is a good start by JR but it's not enough yet.

It's almost Christmas and we're still mediocre. Maybe we'll pull a Florida or Tampa and have a really hot second half. I hope so. But I wouldn't necessarily count on it. Like I said this may just be what we are.

But being mediocre doesn't mean we can't make the playoffs since our competition for the last few playoff spots involves teams that - regardless of our struggles - are definitely much worse than we are at least on paper.
 

gopens66

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My problem with accurately assessing this team is that we've seen this core of stars quit on three different head coaches. Now, when they're inexplicably bad, my mind will always go, "Looks like they're done with Sully...."
 

Empoleon8771

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I'm just not sure we'll ever get rolling to the degree you want with the defense we have in place. Oleksiak and Maatta are just so bad, and JJ is meh. Pettersson is a good start by JR but it's not enough yet.

The team defense has been fantastic for a while now, I'm not worried about the defense. I want to thin it out some and get a better puck mover, but it's not like the defense is in shambles without it. They're top-10 in most defensive categories in the last 15 or so games, the only one that they aren't top-10 in is shots against. The team defense has been really solid recently, it has definitely been good enough.

It's almost Christmas and we're still mediocre. Maybe we'll pull a Florida or Tampa and have a really hot second half. I hope so. But I wouldn't necessarily count on it. Like I said this may just be what we are.

But being mediocre doesn't mean we can't make the playoffs since our competition for the last few playoff spots involves teams that - regardless of our struggles - are definitely much worse than we are at least on paper.

Here's the thing, they're not mediocre. Inconsistent is a better word to describe them, they were great at the start of the season, horrible for a 10 game stretch and have been great since that 10 game stretch. The result may be mediocre for the year overall, but they've never really played mediocre this year.

They've been horrible for a 10 game stretch this year, but have been great outside of it. If they don't repeat that 10 game stretch, the horrible 10 game stretch will matter dramatically less in 2 months than it means now. Seeing how the bottom-6 is scoring, the defense has improved and the goaltending is solid, I'm not worried about this team having another terrible stretch of games. It shouldn't happen again.
 

Andy99

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Look at what happened to the Hawks when they fired Quenneville, they went from "kind of mediocre, not doing all that great but not terrible" to "holy ****, this team is an absolute mess". With Colliton as the head coach, the Hawks are 4-12-2. The problem with that team was never Quenneville, it was always the build of the roster. Firing a great coach just made a mediocre team horrendous. Why do people think the Penguins would have any different of a result?

Teams very rarely benefited from firing a Sullivan caliber coach during the season, the Penguins winning a cup after firing Therrien in 2009 makes Penguins fans have a warped view on firing coaches. The Oilers are the only team who benefited from a coaching change, and that's because Hitchcock made sweeping changes that specifically fit the Oilers. The Blues, Hawks and Kings have all gotten dramatically worse or stayed just as bad from their coaching moves.

The Pens have benefited twice from firing the coach...don't forget Johnson...if you can 1) use the talent better than you are or 2) play more inspired hockey, then you fire the coach...they're fired all the time....don't make it sound like it never works, it does work...it's not a panacea but it depends on the problem...Pens have both a roster problem and a "playing" problem...

they have two options because the core is not going to be jettisoned: 1) make some substantial changes, moving out a couple keys players for players that more fit the style of play you want---but the team has to identify how they want to play, or 2) fire the coach and bring in a new voice, like Hitchcock was, who is going to impose a different style of play

what is the style of play the Pens want to play? If you say speedy, aggressive offensive game plan like 2015-16, we don't have the right players for that....we need to get younger, faster skill players in here and they should be bringing up what we have in WBS and try them out, and Sully has to be on board with that...
If you say the style is going to be play defensive structure first and physical, well do we have the players for that? Is this the right coach for that? Because Geno doesn't want to play that style...it's clear that he's cheating for offense, that's his game, that's why you see the fly bys etc...he's getting frustrated because he can't produce offense with either how the Pens are trying to play now or with his current linemates...the Pens are struggling through the NZ to pass it quickly and with pace and breakdown the other team's structure more than that's happening to them...they also lose the goaltending battle on various nights, like last night...it's just not consistent...too many changes need to be made imo for the team to contend this year...they should tank for a top 5 pick
 

Empoleon8771

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they have two options because the core is not going to be jettisoned: 1) make some substantial changes, moving out a couple keys players for players that more fit the style of play you want---but the team has to identify how they want to play, or 2) fire the coach and bring in a new voice, like Hitchcock was, who is going to impose a different style of play

Or there's a third option: be patient and let the good results that they've had recently continue. There have been 2 problems on the roster recently, Malkin's line severely struggling and the powerplay being mediocre. The rest of the roster has been great for the last 10-15 games or so. You don't need to blow up your team because you haven't won 15 games in a row.
 

Shady Machine

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I have a problem with people giving Kessel a pass while heavily criticizing Malkin. People are aware that Kessel has 5 goals in the same stretch that people are criticizing Malkin's production? Kessel has 2 ES goals in his last 21 games, Sheahan, Pearson (in only 14 games) and Rust has more ES goals than him over this stretch and ZAR (in only 17 games) has just as many. Those "vanilla guys" are actually doing their jobs, they're actually the bright spot on this team recently.

I just can't understand why people are still criticizing the depth players instead of the top players. I just can't, no matter how vanilla these guys are, they're doing their jobs. The bottom-6 is producing really well, the PK has been fantastic recently (which consists of mostly depth players) and the team has been much stronger defensively. It's like people are ignoring the fantastic result they're giving to try and deviate blame away from the top players, who actually deserve criticism.

The flipside is that Kessel looked fantastic with Crosby for a few games, but Malkin's line struggled with Sheahan there so Sully moved Kessel back. Not blaming Malkin for everything, but when Kessel looks good with Crosby and then not good with Malkin, I'm not going to throw Kessel under the bus.

Reality is Pens just aren't a good team. They are individual players playing well at different times.
 

Pancakes

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The team defense has been fantastic for a while now, I'm not worried about the defense. I want to thin it out some and get a better puck mover, but it's not like the defense is in shambles without it. They're top-10 in most defensive categories in the last 15 or so games, the only one that they aren't top-10 in is shots against. The team defense has been really solid recently, it has definitely been good enough.



Here's the thing, they're not mediocre. Inconsistent is a better word to describe them, they were great at the start of the season, horrible for a 10 game stretch and have been great since that 10 game stretch. The result may be mediocre for the year overall, but they've never really played mediocre this year.

They've been horrible for a 10 game stretch this year, but have been great outside of it. If they don't repeat that 10 game stretch, the horrible 10 game stretch will matter dramatically less in 2 months than it means now. Seeing how the bottom-6 is scoring, the defense has improved and the goaltending is solid, I'm not worried about this team having another terrible stretch of games. It shouldn't happen again.

I don't think we'll have another terrible stretch unless it's late in the year and we have no chance. By that point the team might stop giving a f*** and might mail it in.

Hopefully Murray can come back and play well. What has buoyed them recently is Desmith has been giving solid goaltending. Earlier in the year there were too many games where yeah they'd play bad or just average but their goaltending would give them no chance.

They're really beyond fortunate that the rest of the league is struggling too. Pretty sure in the past the type of record they have now would be a huge hole to dig out of in the Metro, but this year despite them four games below 500 they're still not just in it but actually tied for the last spot. Unbelievably the Isles of all teams have more ROW than us so they currently hold the tiebreaker.
 
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Pancakes

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They are individual players playing well at different times.

I think this is a good way to sum things up. They feel less like a team than I would like. When they win it usually feels like it's on the backs of a few players. Feels rare these days for us to have a complete game where you really felt like everyone was contributing.
 
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Andy99

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Or there's a third option: be patient and let the good results that they've had recently continue. There have been 2 problems on the roster recently, Malkin's line severely struggling and the powerplay being mediocre. The rest of the roster has been great for the last 10-15 games or so. You don't need to blow up your team because you haven't won 15 games in a row.

I guess you see this team as being good enough to compete with WSH, TB, TOR etc, and I don't...they may make the POs but they're going nowhere near the SCF....I think we held onto or brought in too many vets and our ELC cupboard is bare, and we need more youth and skill on this team...also, the bottom two defensive pairings just cannot move the puck quickly enough through the NZ and the goaltending has been mediocre....it's been more than two months and the problems are still there, despite minor tweaks JR has made...I don't see it without more substantive changes....

I've said it before, but I'd rather have a shot at Hughes than go out in the first round of the POs to CLB or someone like that....
 

Empoleon8771

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I don't think we'll have another terrible stretch unless it's late in the year and we have no chance. By that point the team might stop giving a **** and might mail it in.

Hopefully Murray can come back and play well. What has buoyed them recently is Desmith has been giving solid goaltending. Earlier in the year there were too many games where yeah they'd play bad or just average but their goaltending would give them no chance.

They're really beyond fortunate that the rest of the league is struggling too. Pretty sure in the past the type of record they have now would be a huge hole to dig out of in the Metro, but this year despite them four games below 500 they're still not just in it but actually tied for the last spot. Unbelievably the Isles of all teams have more ROW than us so they currently hold the tiebreaker.

That is the real question mark right now, Murray can either sink this team or make it go on a run. The thing that makes me optimistic is that Murray has mostly sucked with high danger chances against, and the Penguins have done really well with limiting high danger chances recently. However, they've insulated DeSmith pretty well all year, so I'm not sure if that's them turning a corner or if it's just them playing better in front of DeSmith. Murray has been pretty good against easy to medium difficulty shots against, he hasn't been giving up bad goals often.

The flipside is that Kessel looked fantastic with Crosby for a few games, but Malkin's line struggled with Sheahan there so Sully moved Kessel back. Not blaming Malkin for everything, but when Kessel looks good with Crosby and then not good with Malkin, I'm not going to throw Kessel under the bus.

Reality is Pens just aren't a good team. They are individual players playing well at different times.

No, they weren't a good team for a 10 game stretch this year. They've been an excellent team outside of those 10 games. If those 10 games don't happen again, they'll continue being an excellent team that was just really bad for a small portion of the season.

In the last 12 games, bottom-6ers on the Penguins have scored 11 goals (3 for Sheahan and Rust, 2 for Brassard and 1 for ZAR, Dea and Grant). The PK has given up like 3 goals over that stretch. The team defense is in the top-10 in the league in most categories. The top line is globetrotting for the most part. The only flaws on this team right now are the 2nd line and the powerplay, mostly because they keep giving up SH goals.
 
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Shady Machine

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I think this is a good way to sum things up. They feel less like a team than I would like. When they win it usually feels like it's on the backs of a few players. Feels rare these days for us to have a complete game where you really felt like everyone was contributing.

Yup and that's the biggest concern for me and totally fair to criticize Sully. I think JR has a hand in it too as roster construction is a tad bizarre in different spots. They just aren't playing like a cohesive team and I'm not sure what will change that. I think Sully is a good coach and the risk of firing him might be more than the reward, but I can understand the other side of the argument.
 
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Shady Machine

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No, they weren't a good team for a 10 game stretch this year. They've been an excellent team outside of those 10 games. If those 10 games don't happen again, they'll continue being an excellent team that was just really bad for a small portion of the season.

Excellent? They just got 2 out of 6 points against the Senators, Islanders, and lowly Blackhawks.

I have higher expectations for excellent than it appears you do.
 
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EightyOne

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Here's some advanced stat modelling of the Pens year that I think everyone could get on board with:

penweb2.gif
 

Empoleon8771

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Excellent? They just got 2 out of 6 points against the Senators, Islanders, and lowly Blackhawks.

I have higher expectations for excellent than it appears you do.

They're 1-1-1 in their last 3, are you really looking at only their last 3 games to say that they haven't been playing well recently? They have gotten 15 out of 24 points in their last 12 games, which is a pace of 103 points over a full season.

In that 10 game stretch, they were 1-7-2. Outside of those 10 games, they are 12-4-4. 12-4-4 over a full season is 115 points per 82 games. Yes, they have been excellent outside of those 10 games. If they can continue to play how they have played outside of that dreadful stretch, this team is going to finish at near the top of the Eastern Conference. I don't really get why people say the team has been things like "mediocre" or "bad" this year. No, they've been very inconsistent. They've alternated between a horrible team and a fantastic team in like 10 game clumps on the year so far.
 

Empoleon8771

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i love being told constantly that the team is actually playing excellent when they’re boring as **** and bad

I love when this site creates an inaccurate hive mind as a comical overreaction and just continues to shriek about it, despite it being comically false.

This website has a huge problem of overreacting to a bad game or a bad stretch of games, and then refusing to let go of the hive mind thoughts after they're no longer true.
 
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Shady Machine

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They're 1-1-1 in their last 3, are you really looking at only their last 3 games to say that they haven't been playing well recently? They have gotten 15 out of 24 points in their last 12 games, which is a pace of 103 points over a full season.

In that 10 game stretch, they were 1-7-2. Outside of those 10 games, they are 12-4-4. 12-4-4 over a full season is 115 points per 82 games. Yes, they have been excellent outside of those 10 games.

Sorry, 3 of 6 points. I don't think they are playing excellent recently and I'm not confident that they are consistently trending in the right direction.

I guess based on their record outside of that 10 games stretch, you are technically correct that their record would project to be very good.

You could also say, aside from their Western trip, they haven't been very good. Both statements from a record perspective are accurate.

Another alarming stat for me is their in division record of 3-4-2, assuming I did the quick math right. I'm just not confident in how they are playing, total record outside of that 10 game stretch aside.
 
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Empoleon8771

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Sorry, 3 of 6 points. I don't think they are playing excellent recently and I'm not confident that they are consistently trending in the right direction.

I guess based on their record outside of that 10 games stretch, you are technically correct that their record would project to be very good.

You could also say, aside from their Western trip, they haven't been very good. Both statements from a record perspective are accurate.

Another alarming stat for me is their in division record of 3-4-2, assuming I did the quick math right. I'm just not confident in how they are playing, total record outside of that 10 game stretch aside.

That's just the thing, both the results in terms of points gained and advanced stats are all good. People may not think that they're doing well, but actually looking at the stats points to a team that's playing really well. People are just repeating the same things that were true during that horrible run (or before the horrible run), but are no longer true now. As of right now, depth scoring isn't a problem, but people keep saying it's an issue. The team is constantly dominating in terms of shot attempts, but people keep saying the Penguins are getting dominated. People keep saying the defense is a problem, but the Penguins are top-10 in most defensive stats since they got out of that bad funk.

Those things were completely true earlier in the season, especially the part about getting dominated (they were winning in spite of getting dominated early in the year IIRC). They're just not true now, people either don't realize they're not true or are ignoring that they're not true. I can understand why people still think the team is bad, they have lost half of the games in the stretch that I'm talking about. However, the team is giving good results statistically right now and they are gaining ground in the standings because of loser points.

The best word to describe this team is inconsistent, which I haven't seen used as much as "bad" or "mediocre". Not only has the team been inconsistent as a whole, but even individual lines or D pairs have been inconsistent. Right now, they are playing well and getting bailed out by loser points, but they're also losing close games and winning lopsided games. Logic would tell you that trend isn't sustainable, in that you're going to start winning more close games. But then again, logic would also tell you that you wouldn't go from winning 9-1 to losing 9 of 10 :laugh:
 
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vikingGoalie

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The flipside is that Kessel looked fantastic with Crosby for a few games, but Malkin's line struggled with Sheahan there so Sully moved Kessel back. Not blaming Malkin for everything, but when Kessel looks good with Crosby and then not good with Malkin, I'm not going to throw Kessel under the bus.

Reality is Pens just aren't a good team. They are individual players playing well at different times.

To expand on what you are touching on. The coach and GM's goal is to have a team that the output is greater then the sum of the parts. We have some top end talent on this team, and when enough of those are playing like it we win games despite the coach or other deficiencies.
Geno looks completely checked out in the games anymore. Is that JR not getting the right wingers (perhaps if Sprong would have worked out this is not an issue) or is that the coach preaching a style of game that Malkin is not on board with? Not sure. But I was floored with Sid just puck watching last game on the game winner. Sid breathes hockey with every breath, when he is puck watching something is not right. Maybe he just had a brain fart, but that was maybe the worst defensive gaff I've ever seen out of him.

When the team looks disinterested that's on the Coach. Crosby literally lifts a stick on the guy right behind him and we at least get a point out of this game.
 

EightyOne

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It's fair to have this opinion but it's a little low effort to just say it without addressing any of Empoleon's arguments.

Refute every of Emps arguments: it doesn't matter how they've played lately until they climb out of the hole. When they're challenging division or top of conference, we can say "okay it'll be fine."

In addition, they still LOOK like shit. Shit that will have no chance to beat anyone in the East in the playoffs.

Boom.

It's just going to take time to see if the Pens will improve themselves---they haven't yet despite going 6-6, or a technical 6-3-3.
 
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vodeni

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It's fair to have this opinion but it's a little low effort to just say it without addressing any of Empoleon's arguments.
how about this argument; watch Sully's presser and you tell me if that is the coach of a team that plays excellent hockey (OK in the following paragraph he downgraded to well), the bottom line this is not the team that comes in waves that wows you with speed, tenacity, skill,

this is the team that is threading water and is staying afloat in the sea of mediocrity, you cannot play excellent hockey and thread around 500, you know who also does not play excellent hockey: Caps, but they play good hockey, which is enough for them to look like the team to beat...

you don't play excellent hockey when your PP1 unit looks like crap, your PP2 is a joke, when your two defensive pairing requires prayer everytime the puck is behind our net, and your first pairing consists of one great guy ad one that unexplicably is turning puck overe and over again

your two most prolific scorers are basically checked out, its not that they don't care but they simply DO NOT KNOW HOW TO POSSESS the puck anymore, and their third wheel is a guy who has 0ne point in 8 games

your top line who happens to have your captain that is playing best hockey of his life in three games score: 0 points against hockey greats Isles, Santors and Hawks

other than that yes they are really excellent, I am so glad I am not part of this hivemind that just like to dump on Pens
 

Pancakes

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Refute every of Emps arguments: it doesn't matter how they've played lately until they climb out of the hole. When they're challenging division or top of conference, we can say "okay it'll be fine."

In addition, they still LOOK like ****. **** that will have no chance to beat anyone in the East in the playoffs.

Boom.

It's just going to take time to see if the Pens will improve themselves---they haven't yet despite going 6-6, or a technical 6-3-3.

I think it's a mistake to point to results only. We 100% deserved to win the Sens game for example, and just ran into a hot goalie. Last night was our first truly bad game in a while.

What I'm concerned about is whether our game is trending in the right direction in terms of play, not in terms of results. If we play the right way, the results will follow unless we get really unlucky.

It's why we'd be a dominant regular season team under Bylsma but you could see enough flaws in our style and roster that most of us still knew we'd flop in the playoffs.

how about this argument; watch Sully's presser and you tell me if that is the coach of a team that plays excellent hockey (OK in the following paragraph he downgraded to well), the bottom line this is not the team that comes in waves that wows you with speed, tenacity, skill,

this is the team that is threading water and is staying afloat in the sea of mediocrity, you cannot play excellent hockey and thread around 500, you know who also does not play excellent hockey: Caps, but they play good hockey, which is enough for them to look like the team to beat...

you don't play excellent hockey when your PP1 unit looks like crap, your PP2 is a joke, when your two defensive pairing requires prayer everytime the puck is behind our net, and your first pairing consists of one great guy ad one that unexplicably is turning puck overe and over again

your two most prolific scorers are basically checked out, its not that they don't care but they simply DO NOT KNOW HOW TO POSSESS the puck anymore, and their third wheel is a guy who has 0ne point in 8 games

your top line who happens to have your captain that is playing best hockey of his life in three games score: 0 points against hockey greats Isles, Santors and Hawks

other than that yes they are really excellent, I am so glad I am not part of this hivemind that just like to dump on Pens

These are all fair points. I think most would agree that the PP and the play of Malkin/Kessel are our biggest problems at this point.
 
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Jaded-Fan

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I actually have linked some of the advanced stats to show that especially their 5 v 5 numbers are up there among the better teams over the last 25 games.

The thing that gets to me though is that, unlike last year, they really are for the most part busting their butts and playing hard. And STILL look overwhelmed often. Yes, their stats have been decent but I see that as their limit. Unlike last year there is no other gear to go to when the playoffs start, there really haven;t been an overwhelming number of injuries with lots of key players coming back, this is as good as it gets.

And that scares the hell out of me.
 

vodeni

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I think it's a mistake to point to results only. We 100% deserved to win the Sens game for example, and just ran into a hot goalie. Last night was our first truly bad game in a while.

What I'm concerned about is whether our game is trending in the right direction in terms of play, not in terms of results. If we play the right way, the results will follow unless we get really unlucky.

It's why we'd be a dominant regular season team under Bylsma but you could see enough flaws in our style and roster that most of us still knew we'd flop in the playoffs.



These are all fair points. I think most would agree that the PP and the play of Malkin/Kessel are our biggest problems at this point.
we are not playing great but sometimes there is this difeerence between the process and results...Last night was bad, because we gave up some bad odd man rushes, but had a ton of high danger scoring chances, we convert on some of those, totally different story...hockey is so weird...
 
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