Confirmed with Link: Bill Zito is the Panthers new GM

[BabyBennettov]

Charts say Jakub Kindl, Seth Griffith are good players.

Meanwhile Luke Schenn and Zach Bogosian are playing 15 minutes a night on a Cup winning team. Why even watch the games though??? Just build your team off charts and you too can finish with 80 points like the 2017 Panthers.

I would be curious to see the Bogosian charts now that he is with Tampa...

 

[BabyBennettov]

Umm...ok. Except that Matthias sucked, and Crouse is a way better player at the same age, and still improving.

We’ll see then... I can’t wait to watch Crouse get 40 points and Anderson score 30 goals, because there is no way they don’t achieve that, they’re that kind of players !

 

[BabyBennettov]

I don’t see it that way. I see it as good thing to surround yourself with people who are good at certain things. Let’s look at our hockey ops as of right now:

Joyce
Luongo
McCabe
Braden Birch
Sydney Bell

Doesn’t exactly scream cup winner does it? I think most people around the league would tell you Fenton is good at what he does.

Maybe doesn’t have the best reputation as a person (from what I’ve read and heard), but he ran Nashville’s AHL team and their drafting + development speaks for itself. Also played with Q back in the 80s.

So if he’s off scouting 90 percent of the time, I could care less how he is with people. Let him do what he does best and reap the benefits. It’s time this team stops caring about having everyone be Mr. Nice Guy, because that got us Nick Bjugstad, Mr. Character 3rd overall, and 0 playoff round wins.

And if Dudley comes here too, that’s even better.

Zito, Dudley, Fenton, maybe keep Lu and Joyce around... now that’s a wide range of experience and opinions on things. Much better than we’ve ever had as a franchise.

Fenton tenure in Minny was very bad, and the guy is « a bad person » that didn’t have the shoulders to carry the load of being a GM...

Think this could be a great hiring because it worked in Nashville and Fenton has always been praised as one of the best in amateur scouting... But still concerned this could be a mistake !

Hope Zito knows what he is doing... But Fenton for amateur and Dudley for pro-scouting, those are two of the best IMO.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

Hope Zito knows what he is doing

This could be a very good setup for the front office or it could create even more turmoil and division than what Dale's office managed to do. If all fails even before the next season starts then at least the beat reporters will have material to work on and the fans don't have to break their binge drinking in case they still have interest in this team.

 

[pb1300]

Joyce is going to be Charlotte’s GM.

 

[FinlandPanther]

Joyce is going to be Charlotte’s GM.

God bless them.

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

Mark Boroweicki anyone? He's become good, is a stay at home player who can chip in offensively, and is actually a good leader in the locker room. And he played in Ottawa so he's used to tire fires!

Joyce is going to be Charlotte’s GM.

 

[Egblad]

Fenton tenure in Minny was very bad, and the guy is « a bad person » that didn’t have the shoulders to carry the load of being a GM...

Think this could be a great hiring because it worked in Nashville and Fenton has always been praised as one of the best in amateur scouting... But still concerned this could be a mistake !

Hope Zito knows what he is doing... But Fenton for amateur and Dudley for pro-scouting, those are two of the best IMO.

Every decision anyone makes in life “could” be a mistake.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Mark Boroweicki anyone? He's become good, is a stay at home player who can chip in offensively, and is actually a good leader in the locker room. And he played in Ottawa so he's used to tire fires!

Thought about Boro, just for a culture/locker room change but OTT fans says he is done/sucks.
Still able to hit and block shots.

2yrs x $1.5 million is fair. Anything over 2 years than no thanks.

 

[Dread Clawz]

I would definitely take Boro. I just assumednOttawa definitely wanted to lock him up.

 

[Bure1096]

Joyce is going to be Charlotte’s GM.

Bless their hearts. f***.

 

[batting1k]

Charts say Jakub Kindl, Seth Griffith are good players.

Meanwhile Luke Schenn and Zach Bogosian are playing 15 minutes a night on a Cup winning team. Why even watch the games though??? Just build your team off charts and you too can finish with 80 points like the 2017 Panthers.

To be fair, Griffith was a no-cost waiver pickup while we were decimated by injuries, most of the games he played in we were missing either Barkov, Huberdeau, or both.

And it was better than putting MacKenzie, Shaw, etc on the top line. Beyond that, he was a dominant AHL player in his early 20s, so it was possible at the time that he just needed a real opportunity. It was a smart move at the time.

 

[Sticksandsun]

To be fair, Griffith was a no-cost waiver pickup while we were decimated by injuries, most of the games he played in we were missing either Barkov, Huberdeau, or both.

And it was better than putting MacKenzie, Shaw, etc on the top line. Beyond that, he was a dominant AHL player in his early 20s, so it was possible at the time that he just needed a real opportunity. It was a smart move at the time.

Ok and just ignore the part about Bogo and Schenn?

 

[Android 16]

Joyce is going to be Charlotte’s GM.

That directly affects Florida. They're supposed to feed the Panthers players ideally. No chance now with that incompetent loser on board

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

That directly affects Florida. They're supposed to feed the Panthers players ideally. No chance now with that incompetent loser on board

He's actually already been their AHL GM for the past 6 years (they've won 2 playoff games in that timeframe)

If they don’t address the 2C role, I actually wouldn’t be opposed to letting Borgstrom have it and see what happens. He’ll be useless in a bottom-6 role, see what happens if you give him the minutes and some skilled wingers.

I actually like the lineup I posted a couple pages back. I think Borsgtrom is a bust but in a rebuilding year I think the kid should get a shot in the top 6 and either he'll prove me wrong or help lead FLA to a high 1st round pick (of course it's a weak draft year)

 

[sinDer]

I actually like the lineup I posted a couple pages back. I think Borsgtrom is a bust but in a rebuilding year I think the kid should get a shot in the top 6 and either he'll prove me wrong or help lead FLA to a high 1st round pick (of course it's a weak draft year)

In all respect, that line up you posted is horrible. Best case scenario that would make us a mediocre team at best. But chances are good that we’d barely look an actual NHL team.

As for Borgstrom, if they start the next season with him on the second line, they’re not serious about winning or even just trying to.

 

[letsgrowcactus]

I would be curious to see the Bogosian charts now that he is with Tampa...

Regular season charts, one of their worst players; in the playoffs, he's been much better.

So because I'm bored, I'm looking at the 2019/20 FLA charts. Numbers/charts only so take that into account.

-Ekblad and Weegar are easily our best two Dmen; they pretty much make everyone around them better. Much has been said about Ekblad improving this year but I really hope Weegar can stay healthy because when he's healthy and confident, him and Ekblad are pretty good together, possibly even legit top pairing. Weegar's "5-on-5 defence chart"? So beautiful. When Weegar is on the ice, we're likely to get scored on 0.53 goal less per 60 minutes (so if he plays 19 minutes, about a goal less every 3 games). Also, consider giving Weegar more PK time. He's only played 80 minutes there but our PK charts look so much better with him on the ice.

-Matheson's D chart is meh but what surprised me was how much he hurts us offensively. That said, looking at his pairings, putting him together with Josh Brown as a sheltered 3rd pairing seemed to work really well for both these guys - based on their ca. 200 minutes together, they're not just serviceable but actually look good, each improving the other's numbers in a massive way. Numbers only but if we can't get rid of Matheson, I'd say stick those two together on the 3rd pairing, limit their minutes and pray for the best. His PK numbers suck - if possible, give his minutes to Weegar.

-Yandle - mildly helps us offensively, badly hurts us defensively; our PP is much better with him there (that said PP/PK numbers are obviously somewhat affected by being on PP1/2). Pretty much everybody looks worse playing with him - for some it's just a little worse (Weegar-Yandle is still an okay pairing although obviously worse than Weegar-Ekblad), for some it's awful. Surprise, surprise but any combination of Matheson-Yandle-Strallman is a freaking disaster. Nothing new here but at least one of these three HAS to go.

-Strallman... yeah that contract really didn't work out. He does nothing for us offensively andbadly hurst us defensively; he's one of our better PK guys, which is not saying much because the PK is very meh. Same as Yandle, pretty much everybody looks worse when playing with him. He's been okay (and only okay) when paired with with Stillman.

-Stillman... yeah, those additional PK minutes you're giving to Weegar? Take them from Stillman. We're 21% more likely to get scored on when he's on the PK. Other than that he's been perfectly average, which is not bad for a 22 year old rookie. If he can take a step forward, that would be nice.

-Brown - black hole offensively (although not quite as bad as I'd have thought), decent defensively. A 7D but I'm mildly intrigued by that Matheson-Brown pairing. Which, yeah, it's a 3rd pairing spot so it means they played against lesser competition, and there's every chance that they would suck next year. Still.

-Pysyk - hurts us offensively, does nothing for us defensively, as a cheap 4F/7D he can stay, otherwise meh.

Also, on the subject of "Team plays better in front of Driedger for some reason and sucks in front of Bob"? Charts say it's totally legit. Our defence when Bob is NOT on the ice looks like an average or even slightly above-average NHL defence (good for Montembeault, decent/okay for Driedger). When Bob is on the ice, they just suddenly decide it'd be fun to leave the crease unprotected.

Did a quick glance at the forwards and I have just one question - where's the "Selke-candidate Barkov" gone to? 'Cause I'd really like that guy back...

Finally, I looked at our team from 2013-2020 - just shot maps 5-on-5, PP and PK. Obviously there's a ton of information missing - coaching, competitiveness, closing games, goaltending, even stuff as speed shot, takeaways/giveaways etc. etc. etc...
Going by shot maps alone, this was the worst team effort since 2013/14, just as bad 5-on-5 as the 2016/17 team but with worse special teams (also significantly worse special teams than last year). Yay.

...and I'm done procrastinating by staring at charts. So much for getting some work down this evening /o\

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Regular season charts, one of their worst players; in the playoffs, he's been much better.

So because I'm bored, I'm looking at the 2019/20 FLA charts. Numbers/charts only so take that into account.

-Ekblad and Weegar are easily our best two Dmen; they pretty much make everyone around them better. Much has been said about Ekblad improving this year but I really hope Weegar can stay healthy because when he's healthy and confident, him and Ekblad are pretty good together, possibly even legit top pairing. Weegar's "5-on-5 defence chart"? So beautiful. When Weegar is on the ice, we're likely to get scored on 0.53 goal less per 60 minutes (so if he plays 19 minutes, about a goal less every 3 games). Also, consider giving Weegar more PK time. He's only played 80 minutes there but our PK charts look so much better with him on the ice.

-Matheson's D chart is meh but what surprised me was how much he hurts us offensively. That said, looking at his pairings, putting him together with Josh Brown as a sheltered 3rd pairing seemed to work really well for both these guys - based on their ca. 200 minutes together, they're not just serviceable but actually look good, each improving the other's numbers in a massive way. Numbers only but if we can't get rid of Matheson, I'd say stick those two together on the 3rd pairing, limit their minutes and pray for the best. His PK numbers suck - if possible, give his minutes to Weegar.

-Yandle - mildly helps us offensively, badly hurts us defensively; our PP is much better with him there (that said PP/PK numbers are obviously somewhat affected by being on PP1/2). Pretty much everybody looks worse playing with him - for some it's just a little worse (Weegar-Yandle is still an okay pairing although obviously worse than Weegar-Ekblad), for some it's awful. Surprise, surprise but any combination of Matheson-Yandle-Strallman is a freaking disaster. Nothing new here but at least one of these three HAS to go.

-Strallman... yeah that contract really didn't work out. He does nothing for us offensively andbadly hurst us defensively; he's one of our better PK guys, which is not saying much because the PK is very meh. Same as Yandle, pretty much everybody looks worse when playing with him. He's been okay (and only okay) when paired with with Stillman.

-Stillman... yeah, those additional PK minutes you're giving to Weegar? Take them from Stillman. We're 21% more likely to get scored on when he's on the PK. Other than that he's been perfectly average, which is not bad for a 22 year old rookie. If he can take a step forward, that would be nice.

-Brown - black hole offensively (although not quite as bad as I'd have thought), decent defensively. A 7D but I'm mildly intrigued by that Matheson-Brown pairing. Which, yeah, it's a 3rd pairing spot so it means they played against lesser competition, and there's every chance that they would suck next year. Still.

-Pysyk - hurts us offensively, does nothing for us defensively, as a cheap 4F/7D he can stay, otherwise meh.

Also, on the subject of "Team plays better in front of Driedger for some reason and sucks in front of Bob"? Charts say it's totally legit. Our defence when Bob is NOT on the ice looks like an average or even slightly above-average NHL defence (good for Montembeault, decent/okay for Driedger). When Bob is on the ice, they just suddenly decide it'd be fun to leave the crease unprotected.

Did a quick glance at the forwards and I have just one question - where's the "Selke-candidate Barkov" gone to? 'Cause I'd really like that guy back...

Finally, I looked at our team from 2013-2020 - just shot maps 5-on-5, PP and PK. Obviously there's a ton of information missing - coaching, competitiveness, closing games, goaltending, even stuff as speed shot, takeaways/giveaways etc. etc. etc...
Going by shot maps alone, this was the worst team effort since 2013/14, just as bad 5-on-5 as the 2016/17 team but with worse special teams (also significantly worse special teams than last year). Yay.

...and I'm done procrastinating by staring at charts. So much for getting some work down this evening /o\

Wondering where Priskie fits into the mix?
Curious if Brown is QO'd?
If not, hopefully Keeper can be a decent replacement with Matheson?

-Stillman gets a grace period for another year, he will fight for time with Keeper, Priskie and Brown if re-signed.
-Stralman is unlikely to move (as you said, seems to do okay with Stillman who should be a little better)
-Matheson has way too much term to move unless it's for Turris and only Turris, which points back to Yandle as the key guy to move.

Appreciate the write-up LGC.

 

[Pigge]

-Matheson's D chart is meh but what surprised me was how much he hurts us offensively. That said, looking at his pairings, putting him together with Josh Brown as a sheltered 3rd pairing seemed to work really well for both these guys - based on their ca. 200 minutes together, they're not just serviceable but actually look good, each improving the other's numbers in a massive way. Numbers only but if we can't get rid of Matheson, I'd say stick those two together on the 3rd pairing, limit their minutes and pray for the best. His PK numbers suck - if possible, give his minutes to Weegar.

-Yandle - mildly helps us offensively, badly hurts us defensively; our PP is much better with him there (that said PP/PK numbers are obviously somewhat affected by being on PP1/2). Pretty much everybody looks worse playing with him - for some it's just a little worse (Weegar-Yandle is still an okay pairing although obviously worse than Weegar-Ekblad), for some it's awful. Surprise, surprise but any combination of Matheson-Yandle-Strallman is a freaking disaster. Nothing new here but at least one of these three HAS to go.

Brown is the best partner for Yandle as well, right (since Weegar-Ekblad should not be separated)? It's unfortunate that Matheson is the easiest to move of those three, if Stralman is the biggest problem. Especially when he is also the easiest to replace with a Brown type player.

 

[16Skippy]

Also, on the subject of "Team plays better in front of Driedger for some reason and sucks in front of Bob"? Charts say it's totally legit. Our defence when Bob is NOT on the ice looks like an average or even slightly above-average NHL defence (good for Montembeault, decent/okay for Driedger). When Bob is on the ice, they just suddenly decide it'd be fun to leave the crease unprotected.

Thanks for the write up, but I've got to question this paragraph. I tried making this point earlier this year but I was too lazy to look for data lol.

How do we know it's not just Bob giving up way more rebounds? I actually looked this time and Bob's rebounds per save and rebounds above expected are apparently the worst in the league for goalies who played at least 10 games.

That would explain difference in heat maps better than the team magically player better for Dreidger, IMO.

 

[violaswallet]

Regular season charts, one of their worst players; in the playoffs, he's been much better.

So because I'm bored, I'm looking at the 2019/20 FLA charts. Numbers/charts only so take that into account.

-Ekblad and Weegar are easily our best two Dmen; they pretty much make everyone around them better. Much has been said about Ekblad improving this year but I really hope Weegar can stay healthy because when he's healthy and confident, him and Ekblad are pretty good together, possibly even legit top pairing. Weegar's "5-on-5 defence chart"? So beautiful. When Weegar is on the ice, we're likely to get scored on 0.53 goal less per 60 minutes (so if he plays 19 minutes, about a goal less every 3 games). Also, consider giving Weegar more PK time. He's only played 80 minutes there but our PK charts look so much better with him on the ice.

-Matheson's D chart is meh but what surprised me was how much he hurts us offensively. That said, looking at his pairings, putting him together with Josh Brown as a sheltered 3rd pairing seemed to work really well for both these guys - based on their ca. 200 minutes together, they're not just serviceable but actually look good, each improving the other's numbers in a massive way. Numbers only but if we can't get rid of Matheson, I'd say stick those two together on the 3rd pairing, limit their minutes and pray for the best. His PK numbers suck - if possible, give his minutes to Weegar.

-Yandle - mildly helps us offensively, badly hurts us defensively; our PP is much better with him there (that said PP/PK numbers are obviously somewhat affected by being on PP1/2). Pretty much everybody looks worse playing with him - for some it's just a little worse (Weegar-Yandle is still an okay pairing although obviously worse than Weegar-Ekblad), for some it's awful. Surprise, surprise but any combination of Matheson-Yandle-Strallman is a freaking disaster. Nothing new here but at least one of these three HAS to go.

-Strallman... yeah that contract really didn't work out. He does nothing for us offensively andbadly hurst us defensively; he's one of our better PK guys, which is not saying much because the PK is very meh. Same as Yandle, pretty much everybody looks worse when playing with him. He's been okay (and only okay) when paired with with Stillman.

-Stillman... yeah, those additional PK minutes you're giving to Weegar? Take them from Stillman. We're 21% more likely to get scored on when he's on the PK. Other than that he's been perfectly average, which is not bad for a 22 year old rookie. If he can take a step forward, that would be nice.

-Brown - black hole offensively (although not quite as bad as I'd have thought), decent defensively. A 7D but I'm mildly intrigued by that Matheson-Brown pairing. Which, yeah, it's a 3rd pairing spot so it means they played against lesser competition, and there's every chance that they would suck next year. Still.

-Pysyk - hurts us offensively, does nothing for us defensively, as a cheap 4F/7D he can stay, otherwise meh.

Also, on the subject of "Team plays better in front of Driedger for some reason and sucks in front of Bob"? Charts say it's totally legit. Our defence when Bob is NOT on the ice looks like an average or even slightly above-average NHL defence (good for Montembeault, decent/okay for Driedger). When Bob is on the ice, they just suddenly decide it'd be fun to leave the crease unprotected.

Did a quick glance at the forwards and I have just one question - where's the "Selke-candidate Barkov" gone to? 'Cause I'd really like that guy back...

Finally, I looked at our team from 2013-2020 - just shot maps 5-on-5, PP and PK. Obviously there's a ton of information missing - coaching, competitiveness, closing games, goaltending, even stuff as speed shot, takeaways/giveaways etc. etc. etc...
Going by shot maps alone, this was the worst team effort since 2013/14, just as bad 5-on-5 as the 2016/17 team but with worse special teams (also significantly worse special teams than last year). Yay.

...and I'm done procrastinating by staring at charts. So much for getting some work down this evening /o\

Yeah, I'm not sure if you policy statements are necessarily true, especially on Stillman: By the time Stillman was up, we had enough injuries that we were using him on the first PK at a time when our team was weaker, so it makes sense that his unconditional numbers are worse as the other team's top powerplay is usually better...and I don't think we can make any statements on optimal pairings...

TO see this best, I focus on 12/24/2019-03/12/2020 as the sample period. Weegs was hurt on the 12/23; Stillman was called up on 12/28; Weegar comes back Feb 4th. We see that with both players healthy, Stillman and Weegar have identical usage:

Do you have data for Stillman vs Weegar on the penalty kill for different time periods? It looks like Q liked keeping regular pairs, so Stillman and Stralman were relied on a lot...and afterwards looked much better. If I recall correctly, we often played Stillman-Stralman against the top powerplay still in February and well it doesn't make sense to change pairings much...

 

[letsgrowcactus]

Thanks for the write up, but I've got to question this paragraph. I tried making this point earlier this year but I was too lazy to look for data lol.

How do we know it's not just Bob giving up way more rebounds? I actually looked this time and Bob's rebounds per save and rebounds above expected are apparently the worst in the league for goalies who played at least 10 games.

That would explain difference in heat maps better than the team magically player better for Dreidger, IMO.

Yeah that occurred to me as well and honestly, it could be that too.
So there are the possible explanations:
-team plays better in front of Montembeault/Driedger because they try harder, maybe since these guys are not established NHLers (possible - we know these guys are prone to not giving it their 100%)
-Bob gives up way more bad rebounds (also possible)
-some combination of the two.

 

[violaswallet]

Thanks for the write up, but I've got to question this paragraph. I tried making this point earlier this year but I was too lazy to look for data lol.

How do we know it's not just Bob giving up way more rebounds? I actually looked this time and Bob's rebounds per save and rebounds above expected are apparently the worst in the league for goalies who played at least 10 games.

That would explain difference in heat maps better than the team magically player better for Dreidger, IMO.

So a while back, I started looking at the difference using advanced stats for save percentage by position. This season, the big difference in ranking was in low danger save percentage: for players that played as many games as CD, CD led the league in low danger save percentage (0.991% 113/114) while Bob was like 6th worst at .954 (437/458). With high danger save percentage, all three of our goalies were in the top half of the league, but CD was much better at .888 to Bob's .833...

(Interestingly enough, Monty's problem was medium danger save percentage saves he was the lowest in the league at .803)

 

[violaswallet]

Yeah that occurred to me as well and honestly, it could be that too.
So there are the possible explanations:
-team plays better in front of Montembeault/Driedger because they try harder, maybe since these guys are not established NHLers (possible - we know these guys are prone to not giving it their 100%)
-Bob gives up way more bad rebounds (also possible)
-some combination of the two.

Add in the following: when both are healthy, we usually gave CD is the easier games...

I looked for rebound goals data but it doesn't exist really. NaturalStatTrick does show that Bob gave up 8X rebound shots than CD while only playing 4.5X minutes...however, I don't have the save percentage or the danger... (Bob was top 2 for rebounds per minute and CD bottom 3...) For note, Bob was middle of pack last season in Columbus

There's also a weird equilibrium problem: if the team believes Bob is better, they might player more aggressively and lead to more dangerous chances...

 

[KW]

Yeah that occurred to me as well and honestly, it could be that too.
So there are the possible explanations:
-team plays better in front of Montembeault/Driedger because they try harder, maybe since these guys are not established NHLers (possible - we know these guys are prone to not giving it their 100%)
-Bob gives up way more bad rebounds (also possible)
-some combination of the two.

I’ll claim that anyone who’s played competitive hockey at any level will say that you play defensively more responsibly if you have a goalie who you think might have trouble. It’s really true for any sport with a goalie, but especially hockey where fluky goals are more the norm than the exception.

How did the team do offensively with the three goalies? That might be a secondary indicator. How about delay of game penalty counts? There might also be a correlation.