Post-Game Talk: Big Bald Babies @ Ravishing Rugged Russians 7:30 PM

[txpd]

Lots of assumptions. Beagle would easily be their 3c. Best face off and best PK'er. They will want to be competitive.

Again.....I think Beagle is more valuable to this team the next 2-3 years than Wilson. Obviously I am in the minority in that regard.

They want to be competitive, so they are looking for veteran 30+ year old pending free agents? Its an assumption that he wont, but I could be wrong.

I know how good, how important Beagle is. Last season I said the Caps didn't need to replace Beagle at 3c with Richards.

I am I nuts for thinking McPhee would be more interested in a 22 year old than a 32 year old.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Connolly looks like he's evolving into a top 6 talent. Willy looks like he's evolving into a decent third liner, but he does bring that physical edge no one else does now that 8 and 44 have toned down the hitting.

It's a potentially tough choice, especially since the sample sizes are so small.

Wouldn't that be an awesome story, former 6th overall bust finds his game with his third team. I mean he is only 24(also lost almost an entire season to injury in Juniors) and the season before in Boston was his career year. I have a feeling he tops that this year in less games played.

 

[Revelation]

Can they not qualify Connolly then sign him as a UFA after the draft?

Ovechkin Backstrom
Mojo Kuz
Eller Bura
Wilson

Protected

Connolly, Williams, Oshie signed after draft

Orlov, Niskanen, Carlson protected

Alzner signed after the draft

McPhee bribed to take Orpik (with Grubauer + 1st).

 

[discobob]

Can they not qualify Connolly then sign him as a UFA after the draft?

Connoly's an RFA this year right? Why the reference to UFA, or am I missing something?

Ovechkin Backstrom
Mojo Kuz
Eller Bura
Wilson

Protected

Connolly, Williams, Oshie signed after draft

Orlov, Niskanen, Carlson protected

Alzner signed after the draft

McPhee bribed to take Orpik (with Grubauer + 1st).

Can't fit that team under a flat cap (unless guys are taking SERIOUS hometown discounts)

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Only half-watched the game last night, but it looked like Holtby was meh and Carlzner were garbage when I was watching. Accurate?

 

[Revelation]

Connoly's an RFA this year right? Why the reference to UFA, or am I missing something?

If they don't qualify him he becomes UFA. Isn't that how we got him in the first place.

If he's a UFA McPhee can't poach his RFA rights.

Orpik replaced with Chorney/Bowey, Winnik replaced with Sanford, Grubauer replaced with Vanecek

Does that not fit under the cap? That's almost 8 mil

If it's too tight then ship Mojo out (or leave him unprotected) and hope Vrana can slide in seamlessly

 

[discobob]

Winnik and Orpik is like 7.7M

You have the following "Raises":

Oshie (4.2) ~6M (+1.8)
Williams (3.3) ~2.5M (-0.8M)
Kuzy (3M) ~5.0M (+2.0M)
Alzner (2.8M) ~5.0M (+2.2M)
Orlov (2.8M) ~4.0M (+1.2M)
Bura (900K) ~2M (+1.1M)
Connolly (.9M) ~1.5M (+0.6M)
Schmidt (.8M) ~1.5M (+0.7M)

That's +8.8M... We're at the cap already, so that doesn't work. Plus I only assumed a 1yr deal for Kuzy. You probably are looking at 6.5 for a longer deal.

 

[txpd]

If it's too tight then ship Mojo out (or leave him unprotected) and hope Vrana can slide in seamlessly

That is expecting a lot from Vrana. Johansson is tied for 4th in points and is 3rd in goals.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Only half-watched the game last night, but it looked like Holtby was meh and Carlzner were garbage when I was watching. Accurate?

Spot on. Carlzner pairing is very concerning right now. The breakaway goal by Getzlaf to tie the game is all on Alzner. He was on the board while Getzlaf had all the time in the world to receive the pass and score.

The Silfverberg goal is an absolute softie. If Williams or Johansson didn't miss the empty net, we likely win 6-1 instead of 6-4.

 

[Corby78]

Winnik and Orpik is like 7.7M

You have the following "Raises":

Oshie (4.2) ~6M (+1.8)
Williams (3.3) ~2.5M (-0.8M)
Kuzy (3M) ~5.0M (+2.0M)
Alzner (2.8M) ~5.0M (+2.2M)
Orlov (2.8M) ~4.0M (+1.2M)
Bura (900K) ~2M (+1.1M)
Connolly (.9M) ~1.5M (+0.6M)
Schmidt (.8M) ~1.5M (+0.7M)

That's +8.8M... We're at the cap already, so that doesn't work. Plus I only assumed a 1yr deal for Kuzy. You probably are looking at 6.5 for a longer deal.

Are you including losing somebody to LV?

 

[artilector]

If they don't qualify him he becomes UFA. Isn't that how we got him in the first place.

If he's a UFA McPhee can't poach his RFA rights.

Orpik replaced with Chorney/Bowey, Winnik replaced with Sanford, Grubauer replaced with Vanecek

Does that not fit under the cap? That's almost 8 mil

If it's too tight then ship Mojo out (or leave him unprotected) and hope Vrana can slide in seamlessly

If Caps tried to keep the current team (factoring in ballpark raises for UFAs and RFAs, except Winnik), they'd be about 10-11M over the current cap.

So that's how much needs to get pruned, if salary cap won't go up.

1. -Oshie OR -(Mojo + Williams),
AND
2. -Alzner OR -Orpik

IMO, those seem to be the fundamental choices.

 

[discobob]

Are you including losing somebody to LV?

I assumed we lost grubi, who will be replaced with someone of a roughly equivalent salary...

 

[Ridley Simon]

They want to be competitive, so they are looking for veteran 30+ year old pending free agents? Its an assumption that he wont, but I could be wrong.

I know how good, how important Beagle is. Last season I said the Caps didn't need to replace Beagle at 3c with Richards.

I am I nuts for thinking McPhee would be more interested in a 22 year old than a 32 year old.

It depends on what we want McPhee to do, and whether we steer him in a certain direction.

Would I rather lose Wilson or Schmidt/Orlov? It's Wilson. But McPhee loves Wilson (I was one of the first guys who said we should expose him to tempt George).

We lose Wilson, we can save 2m, we can keep our D in tact, we can keep Grubuaer to be able to use him as a trade chip. Perhaps paired with Orpik in a manner to allow the team to be almost in tact.

In an absolutely perfect world, the Caps maneuver is to where they can resign everyone, and lose Orpik, Wilson, and Winnik. That's close to the 10m they need to lop off the payroll, or order to keep Alzner, Oshie and Williams, and resign the RFA's.

It's would be very tight if the Cap doesn't go up, but it's possible.

 

[Ridley Simon]

If Caps tried to keep the current team (factoring in ballpark raises for UFAs and RFAs, except Winnik), they'd be about 10-11M over the current cap.

So that's how much needs to get pruned, if salary cap won't go up.

1. -Oshie OR -(Mojo + Williams),
AND
2. -Alzner OR -Orpik

IMO, those seem to be the fundamental choices.

Maybe. If they get creative, and lose Wilson in the expansion draft, then:
Trade Grubauer to a team that will take Orpik
Let Winnik go.

That's almost 10m right there, give or take.

 

[RandyHolt]

of course. if I said it was day, you would say its night. If you think 5-4 is the way to the cup, lets just agree to disagree.

I don't do it to be obtuse, we just think opposite on most things.

I don't know if 5-4 is the way, but I have seen in the past decade 2-1 is not the way. Having great tending has not been the difference maker, either. Great team defense, it's always the same story.

We need goals.

I think if Holts made a few key stops in recent games, you wouldn't be talking 5-4. That aside, our recent run has us more like doubling up on opponents, vs winning by 1. We still are leading the pack for the coveted Grant Jennings award after all.

 

[artilector]

Maybe. If they get creative, and lose Wilson in the expansion draft, then:
Trade Grubauer to a team that will take Orpik
Let Winnik go.

That's almost 10m right there, give or take.

Well, I meant Winnik leaving as being the one thing factored in, its still ~10-11M over after that.

And if you lose/trade Grubauer/Wilson, you still need to replace them with warm bodies, so at most you save like 1M in case of Wilson. Then you replace Orpik was somebody cheap, save like 4M. You're still 5M short. That's where you have to replace 6M Oshie with a warm body, or move multiple pieces starting with Mojo.

Ofc, maybe I overestimated the upcoming salaries of our RFAs and UFAs, but I doubt that it's by a significant amount -- best case scenario is something like being able to get away with Mojo+Orpik and keep Oshie (if that's the preference).

 

[Revelation]

That is expecting a lot from Vrana. Johansson is tied for 4th in points and is 3rd in goals.

He also gets to ride shotgun to Kuz which is gravy for a fast offensive player and 1st unit PP time. There's gonna be a bump down but I think le system can absorb it since they're somewhat similar. Like how Pittsburgh could absorb going from Letang/Daley to Schultz in the playoffs but not to the same level.

To me Oshie >> Mojo when it comes to being harder to replace, and everyone else also impact roles and makes far less so not much gain there.

Give Oshie the full 8 years at 5.3, he's gonna age like Williams most likely and they can afford that overpayment down the line.

 

[artilector]

Btw, I'm a long time "Mojo doubter", if not "Mojo hater", and I like Oshie, but objectively, they are about equal for me right now, at least until we see what happens in playoffs.

Mojo is younger and will be cheaper than Oshie, also with him you don't have to worry about whether he really might be a step too slow against the NHL's elite. Mojo also seems to process the game better than ever before -- e.g. good screens, patience with the puck. That Swedish inevitable maturation process is starting to kick in, haha.

Is Oshie's battle level and decent chemistry with Ovi/Backstrom enough to make him the better choice? Not sure, over the long term I think I'd have to say no (as of right now). Then again, by keeping Oshie and trading Mojo (after a career-type year) the Caps can also get potentially a (very) nice asset back to swing the equation the other way. In other words, they can have an effective Oshie in what remains of Ovi's decent years, and a nice asset for the future, too.

We'll see how they fare in playoffs.

 

[txpd]

He also gets to ride shotgun to Kuz which is gravy for a fast offensive player and 1st unit PP time. There's gonna be a bump down but I think le system can absorb it since they're somewhat similar. Like how Pittsburgh could absorb going from Letang/Daley to Schultz in the playoffs but not to the same level.

To me Oshie >> Mojo when it comes to being harder to replace, and everyone else also impact roles and makes far less so not much gain there.

Give Oshie the full 8 years at 5.3, he's gonna age like Williams most likely and they can afford that overpayment down the line.

Johansson plays primary role on the power play. I hope you are not saying that his years of experience doing that can be plug and play replaced by a rookie with 1 nhl goal. I can relate to a reality that keeping both 90 and 77 may not be possible and that the Caps may have to throw Vrana in the deep end, but that doesn't mean that I don't think that comes without a significant step down in effectiveness and production.

 

[discobob]

If Caps tried to keep the current team (factoring in ballpark raises for UFAs and RFAs, except Winnik), they'd be about 10-11M over the current cap.

So that's how much needs to get pruned, if salary cap won't go up.

1. -Oshie OR -(Mojo + Williams),
AND
2. -Alzner OR -Orpik

IMO, those seem to be the fundamental choices.

We might be able to make it work if we loose Orpik, Winnik, and JW takes a homer deal (2m/yr). That saves us 9.2M which might just work.

If that doesn't work, we need to ditch JW based on age alone...

 

[Revelation]

Johansson plays primary role on the power play. I hope you are not saying that his years of experience doing that can be plug and play replaced by a rookie with 1 nhl goal. I can relate to a reality that keeping both 90 and 77 may not be possible and that the Caps may have to throw Vrana in the deep end, but that doesn't mean that I don't think that comes without a significant step down in effectiveness and production.

Between Bura, Kuz and Vrana they can probably replace that role. Even use Orlov for zone entry/setting up along the boards instead if Niskanen/Carlson is the other D. He doesn't do anything all world on the PP like Ovechkin or Backstrom.

 

[SpinningEdge]

Something we aren't thinking about is maybe we can get some free agents in win-now mode that will sign 1 or 2 year short term super team friendly deals with us. That's a big advantage when you're a elite team.

If Caps get to or win the cup - I could see us getting some hungry players for way below market value - and those guys would be winners/guys you want on your hockey team.

 

[Raikkonen]

Something we aren't thinking about is maybe we can get some free agents in win-now mode that will sign 1 or 2 year short term super team friendly deals with us. That's a big advantage when you're a elite team.

If Caps get to or win the cup - I could see us getting some hungry players for way below market value - and those guys would be winners/guys you want on your hockey team.

So this guy is Williams, not Oshie, right?

 

[BobRouse]

Not to me. All in all, they still dominated these last two games, outshooting Wings and Ducks 31-17, 39-22.

The only real reason why these games were close is because Mr.System had an 0.820 SV%. Which could be a fluke, too. He got beat by some great shots.

Yeah Caps really dominated these last two games despite the fact Holtby and Ovechkin have been ordinary or below average NHL players.

They played worse games over the past couple months and won more convincingly on the scoreboard b/c Holtby was being Holtby.

Opposition certainly made some excellent shots and got some puck luck on some of those goals too as the PDO gods had enough.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Well, I meant Winnik leaving as being the one thing factored in, its still ~10-11M over after that.

And if you lose/trade Grubauer/Wilson, you still need to replace them with warm bodies, so at most you save like 1M in case of Wilson. Then you replace Orpik was somebody cheap, save like 4M. You're still 5M short. That's where you have to replace 6M Oshie with a warm body, or move multiple pieces starting with Mojo.

Ofc, maybe I overestimated the upcoming salaries of our RFAs and UFAs, but I doubt that it's by a significant amount -- best case scenario is something like being able to get away with Mojo+Orpik and keep Oshie (if that's the preference).

Sign the UFA's you want first if at all possible. RFA's can't go anywhere, so while you run the risk of acrimony, they can't leave.