Blue Jays Discussion: Beyond the Braves.

[phillipmike]

Howell to the (phantom) DL. good move. we should do that more.

Wonder if Grilli is next for Sparkman when he is ready.

 

[Woodman19]

As someone who is probably one of the bigger Shapkins fans, if they pass on Alex Faedo to take Logan Warmoth, I would probably start hating them more then Zeke.

So judging a GM based on a single draft choice in a notoriously crap shoot type of draft with more information than every draft/scouting prognostication put together is the final straw?

 

[hoc123]

So judging a GM based on a single draft choice in a notoriously crap shoot type of draft with more information than every draft/scouting prognostication put together is the final straw?

Ok I may have exaggerated a little , I would still be angry though. Warmoth is the Deck McGuire and Jon Harris of the draft, a player who is decent at everything, but the best you can hope for is a utility player. I get that sometimes it's better to get a player who is easy to project and is a safe option, but at least pick someone who has more potential then a backup infielder.

 

[metafour]

Ok I may have exaggerated a little , I would still be angry though. Warmoth is the Deck McGuire and Jon Harris of the draft, a player who is decent at everything, but the best you can hope for is a utility player. I get that sometimes it's better to get a player who is easy to project and is a safe option, but at least pick someone who has more potential then a backup infielder.

Maybe you should do a bit more reading before you come to obtuse conclusions. Warmoth is much better than you give him credit for.

 

[hoc123]

Maybe you should do a bit more reading before you come to obtuse conclusions. Warmoth is much better than you give him credit for.

I can understand why people may like him better if he was sure to stick at shortstop, then at least he could be a starter. But he likely will have to move to second base. I don't see anything I said as being wrong. MLB.com's review of Warmoth says "While Warmoth doesn't have a standout tool, he also doesn't have any obvious shortcomings."

 

[metafour]

I can understand why people may like him better if he was sure to stick at shortstop, then at least he could be a starter. But he likely will have to move to second base. I don't see anything I said as being wrong. MLB.com's review of Warmoth says "While Warmoth doesn't have a standout tool, he also doesn't have any obvious shortcomings."

MLB.com's reports are months old. Warmoth has a legitimately impressive swing and above-average power that produces hard contact to all fields. Furthermore, his plus arm plays at 3B even if he doesn't stick at SS, even though he really hasn't shown anything which suggests that he can't play SS at least at an average level.

 

[Discoverer]

I can understand why people may like him better if he was sure to stick at shortstop, then at least he could be a starter. But he likely will have to move to second base. I don't see anything I said as being wrong. MLB.com's review of Warmoth says "While Warmoth doesn't have a standout tool, he also doesn't have any obvious shortcomings."

Having no real weaknesses instead of a standout tool doesn't mean you're a utility player. Value is value.

 

[theaub]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/4/14/15144070/logan-warmoth-2017-mlb-draft-ss-north-carolina

I swear like 15 years ago I was reading basically the exact same scouting report on another North Carolina SS we took in the first round.

 

[phillipmike]

Jeff Beliveau didnt pitch bad. He was tough on lefties... Hoping he gets a few more innings in before Howell is "healthy"... Might be an option for us for the rest of the season if Howell is done.

 

[hoc123]

Having no real weaknesses instead of a standout tool doesn't mean you're a utility player. Value is value.

I find that if a player doesn't have a standout tool, most of the time they simply aren't good enough to be in a starter in an MLB team. If I thought he would be a starting SS or starting 2B I wouldn't care he didn't have a standout tool, but the Jays have been burned so many times by the safe, "they do everything good" option like Deck McGuire, Jon Harris and like the poster above me said, Russ Adams.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/4/14/15144070/logan-warmoth-2017-mlb-draft-ss-north-carolina

I swear like 15 years ago I was reading basically the exact same scouting report on another North Carolina SS we took in the first round.

Scout: "So, tell me about Russ Adams"
UNC Coach: "Good guy. Jack of all trades type."
Scout: "Oh cool. So like, 5-tool SS"
UNC Coach: "Ehh, I wouldn't call him 5-tool, but he does everything well."
Scout: "Ok...well that's still good. So you think he'll stick at short?"
UNC Coach: "Ehh...maybe. He's got the range, but the footwork and arm profile a little better at 2nd or 3rd."
Scout: "Oh..ok. But the bat profiles at those positions too, right?"
UNC Coach: "Kinda...well he's got a good patient approach here at the college level, really an OBP machine. But I'm not sure how that will translate...seems to get on against weaker pitching..."
Scout: "Ok...."
UNC Coach: "And he makes good contact...but that's with aluminum, and I don't know if wood will be so kind."
Scout: "And the power..."
UNC Coach: "Just starting showing some this year...but again al..."
Scout: "Aluminum..yeah, I got it. Is he fast?"
UNC Coach: "It depends what your definition of 'is' is.."
Scout: "..."
UNC Coach: "...good kid though!"
Scout: "No, he sounds great."

 

[Woodman19]

I guess I just don't like painting players with the comparison brush. Not all tall lanky pitchers become Sanchez or Syndergaard and not all tools athletic types are Davis.

 

[theaub]

Well yes

Just because a guy sounds like Russ Adams doesn't mean he'll be Russ Adams (and if the Jays had just converted him to a 2B in 2004 instead of 2009 he probably has a far longer career). But its still pretty funny how history repeats itself.

On that note, guess that means its been 15 years since the Moneyball draft. Which remains my favourite chapter in that book because it only proves that there's no actual strategy that works when it comes to drafting MLB players besides just having more picks than anyone else.

 

[hoc123]

MLB.com's reports are months old. Warmoth has a legitimately impressive swing and above-average power that produces hard contact to all fields. Furthermore, his plus arm plays at 3B even if he doesn't stick at SS, even though he really hasn't shown anything which suggests that he can't play SS at least at an average level.

The best I've heard about his power is he'll hit his share of doubles but won't hit many home runs. There also seems to be conflicting reports on his arm. Some say his arm is one of his best tools, while others says it is one of his worst. Most of the time if there is concern that a prospect won't stay at a current position, they will get moved from said position. It's the same reason why I don't think we can pencil in Vlad Guerrero Jr as a third baseman or Bo Bichette as a shortstop.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I find that if a player doesn't have a standout tool, most of the time they simply aren't good enough to be in a starter in an MLB team. If I thought he would be a starting SS or starting 2B I wouldn't care he didn't have a standout tool, but the Jays have been burned so many times by the safe, "they do everything good" option like Deck McGuire, Jon Harris and like the poster above me said, Russ Adams.

To be fair, around here, we all kind of universally disapproved of the Trea Turner rumours because he was essentially a 'does everything well, with his only plus tool being his speed' guy. Of course, Turner has turned into somewhat of a beast (despite his slow start to 2017).

Its really a crapshoot.

 

[Discoverer]

I find that if a player doesn't have a standout tool, most of the time they simply aren't good enough to be in a starter in an MLB team.

There are tons of major league regulars who are just good all-around players rather than being really good at one particular aspect of the game.

If I thought he would be a starting SS or starting 2B I wouldn't care he didn't have a standout tool, but the Jays have been burned so many times by the safe, "they do everything good" option like Deck McGuire, Jon Harris and like the poster above me said, Russ Adams.

And how many times have they been burned by guys with clear standout tools but obvious weaknesses? Hell, look at the 2012 draft alone.

 

[hoc123]

To be fair, around here, we all kind of universally disapproved of the Trea Turner rumours because he was essentially a 'does everything well, with his only plus tool being his speed' guy. Of course, Turner has turned into somewhat of a beast (despite his slow start to 2017).

Its really a crapshoot.

Yeah that's true. I'm not saying that Logan Warmoth has no chance of becoming a good pick, just that I find that players like Warmoth are really overrated as draft prospects. We all do make mistakes though, I remember thinking the Red Sox got a steal when they picked Trey Ball in 2013 .

 

[hoc123]

There are tons of major league regulars who are just good all-around players rather than being really good at one particular aspect of the game.



And how many times have they been burned by guys with clear standout tools but obvious weaknesses? Hell, look at the 2012 draft alone.

It's tough to complain about the 2012 draft when the Jays got Stroman and Alford, and I'll take prospects like Smoral and Gonzales in the 2'nd and 3'rd round any draft. I do agree taking prospects like Davis in the first round is a bad idea, but that's because I don't like taking raw prospects who's best tool is speed.

 

[Kurtz]

On that note, guess that means its been 15 years since the Moneyball draft. Which remains my favourite chapter in that book because it only proves that there's no actual strategy that works when it comes to drafting MLB players besides just having more picks than anyone else.

That chapter is awesome. My favourite part is how they ridicule other teams' scouts for drafting guys who look like athletes over guys who actually put up numbers...and then they go on dismiss Prince Fielder because he's fat.

I'm also guessing that Judge goes quite a bit higher in the draft if Moneyball doesn't come out.

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[Kurtz]

....too soon.

 

[Discoverer]

It's tough to complain about the 2012 draft when the Jays got Stroman and Alford, and I'll take prospects like Smoral and Gonzales in the 2'nd and 3'rd round any draft. I do agree taking prospects like Davis in the first round is a bad idea, but that's because I don't like taking raw prospects who's best tool is speed.

I'm not complaining about the draft as a whole, but if you think they've been burned by all-around, "safe" picks like McGuire, Harris, and Adams, then you should probably also recognize the failures of some of the guys with clear high-end tools (speed for Davis, size for Smoral, fastball for Gonzalez, power for Nay).

I'm not saying one approach is better than the other (or even that you should like Warmoth), I'm just saying it's silly to believe that a few picks working out poorly over the last decade or two shouldn't be enough for you to believe it's a bad approach.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

That chapter is awesome. My favourite part is how they ridicule other teams' scouts for drafting guys who look like athletes over guys who actually put up numbers...and then they go on dismiss Prince Fielder because he's fat.

I'm also guessing that Judge goes quite a bit higher in the draft if Moneyball doesn't come out.

I don't entirely agree with that, though I understand the perspective.

Also, I get that he's been tremendous for two months, but the Judge thing has gotten out of hand. They mentioned on the radio that an unnamed Blue Jay player's wife asked her husband to get Aaron Judge's autograph. Bruh

 

[theaub]

Now he can't let her go to anymore Yankee games

 

[Morgs]

I'm going to ride out the Judge hot streak as long as possible for my fantasy team.

So... don't you bad mouth my best player.