Bettman Plan - ran 100 times

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John Flyers Fan

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Just for the top pick using the Bettman plan

Team - number of wins

Predators - 8

Kings - 7

Thrashers - 6
Blue Jackets
Sabres
Flames

Ducks - 5
Rangers

Bruins - 4
Oilers
Sharks
Lightning

Flyers - 3
Devils
Penguins
Blackhawks
Wild
Stars
Hurricanes

Isles - 2
Senators
Coyotes
Panthers
Caps

Blues - 1
Leafs
Habs
Canucks

Red Wings - 0
Avalanche
 

Isles72

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Feb 27, 2002
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how long did it take to write all the names on paper , stuff em in a hat and draw a hundred times

enquiring minds want to know :innocent:
 

MarkZackKarl

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I did a mock draft and this is what I came up with.

JFF: could you send me a PM explaining how to randomly generate lists in Excel? That would be sweet.

Anyway, here's the breakdown:

1. Pittsburgh
2. Carolina
3. Edmonton
4. Columbus
5. Buffalo
6. Ottawa
7. Washington
8. New York Rangers
9. Montreal
10. New Jersey
11. Nashville
12. Dallas
13. Florida
14. Los Angeles
15. Calgary
16. Atlanta
17. Vancouver
18. Anaheim
19. New York Islanders
20. Minnesota
21. San Jose
22. Chicago
23. Phoenix
24. Tampa Bay
25. Boston
26. Toronto
27. St. Louis
28. Detroit
29. Colorado
30. Philadelphia
 

John Flyers Fan

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scaredsensfan said:
I did a mock draft and this is what I came up with.

JFF: could you send me a PM explaining how to randomly generate lists in Excel? That would be sweet.

Not sure how to do that, I used Excel to assign numbers to teams

Flyers - 1
Devils - 2
Isles - 3
Rangers - 4,5,6,7
Penguins - 8,9,10
etc.
etc.

Then used a random number generator to run the drafts.

I ran one full draft separate from just looking at #1 pick. Don't recall too much other than Ducks having the 1st pick and Atlanta having the 30th pick.
 

Patman

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Stupid question, but consider my field of expertise in Mathematical Statistics (1st year Ph.D. student)... what's the point of a simulation when you can get exact probabilities? I know that a sim might be better if you need to get a rough idea of the chance of picking 3rd, 7th, or 19th, but not #1. A simulation can be useful in trying to put numbers into concievable realities but its no better at showing truth than a pixelated photo.
 

John Flyers Fan

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Patman said:
Stupid question, but consider my field of expertise in Mathematical Statistics (1st year Ph.D. student)... what's the point of a simulation when you can get exact probabilities? I know that a sim might be better if you need to get a rough idea of the chance of picking 3rd, 7th, or 19th, but not #1. A simulation can be useful in trying to put numbers into concievable realities but its no better at showing truth than a pixelated photo.

Probablities are nice .. but they won't provide Rangers fans much sympath if they end up with the 30th pick, when they are better odds than 29 or the 29 other teams.

Also in case you haven't notices there is no playoff hockey to occupy our time. :D
 

Patman

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John Flyers Fan said:
Probablities are nice .. but they won't provide Rangers fans much sympath if they end up with the 30th pick, when they are better odds than 29 or the 29 other teams.

Also in case you haven't notices there is no playoff hockey to occupy our time. :D

True... I can't say i haven't employed a similar mindset... I like playing with and looking at random numbers myself but I also know that it can cloud one perception of truth because our nature tends to gravitate towards certain patterns... this is why people think they can beat the stock market. Does anybody have the Bettman plan anywhere team by team? I think I can do something a lot better with my calculator and a bit of time. If I could computer program better I could do something A LOT cooler, but alas, I suck at it.
 

Mess

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John Flyers Fan said:
Excel Spreadsheet and a random number generator. 5-7 minutes.
I just took a deck of cards ... Assigned the 2's to Columbus and the 3's to the Rangers and each face card one of the bigger market teams and it works the same way ..
 

txomisc

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Wow. Why is anyone wasting their time generating mock draft orders. Is this what we've come to? It has absolutely zero importance to anything. Are you all just bored or trying to accomplish something?
 

Taxman

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One question on Bettman's plan. Are all 30 picks being decided by the lottery? And if so, do the picks snake from round to round (pick 30 in 1st round gets pick 1 in 2nd round, etc).

Thanks. :)
 

John Flyers Fan

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Taxman said:
One question on Bettman's plan. Are all 30 picks being decided by the lottery? And if so, do the picks snake from round to round (pick 30 in 1st round gets pick 1 in 2nd round, etc).

Thanks. :)

Yes, and yes.
 

London Knights

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Jun 1, 2004
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Newsguyone said:
Sweet Jesus, we're going to bury Crosby in Nashville.

Nashville impressed me with the fan interest during the stretch to the playoffs and into the playoffs. But I have to agree. It would be nice to see Crosby wind up in a Canadian city, or New York, Philadelphia, Detroit, etc. A team where there is either the potential for massive media coverage, or where there is a good sports following already.

Although I would be scared that the moment Crosby had a bad game if he was a Flyer that they would start booing him out of the building.
 

R0CKET

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With the greatest odds, the best anyone can statistically get is something like 14 or 12 to 1.

That's certainly not great odds that he will even go to a bad team and not way to much better than the upper echelon.

While it is slightly weighted, its still pretty lousy odds uniformally for everyone so it just about as good of a shot for anyone.

What I have to say that does kind of bother me though is what happens if 5 of the top 7 go to decent to very good teams? Then this is going to really suck IMO.
 

King_Brown

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Crosby hates Toronto from what his dad said. Crosby needs Calgary, and needs to be with the best player in the world Jarome Iginla.
 

Kritter471

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London Knights said:
Nashville impressed me with the fan interest during the stretch to the playoffs and into the playoffs. But I have to agree. It would be nice to see Crosby wind up in a Canadian city, or New York, Philadelphia, Detroit, etc. A team where there is either the potential for massive media coverage, or where there is a good sports following already.

Although I would be scared that the moment Crosby had a bad game if he was a Flyer that they would start booing him out of the building.

Ahhh, but it's the chicken and the egg scenario.

EVERY market has the potential for massive media coverage. That's why professional, major league sports teams are based in large cities rather than Podunk, Iowa. Look at the Phoenix Suns of the NBA, traditionally a wasteland in professional sports that has been embraced by the national media for a turnaround of a few short years. Who's to say if Crosby lands in Phoenix, the same won't happen with the Yotes?

But the relatively larger markets (top-10 US TV markets and Toronto) will afford that opportunity sooner and with less risk of failure from an exposure/media standpoint. The fact that media scrutiny is already present will only heighten when a potential superstar, read: Crosby, comes to town, and with the NHL being so off-the-radar right now, bringing him into a large market may thrust the entire sport back onto a national stage automatically in a way a smaller market would have to work for.

So it depends on what you're looking for. Are you looking to resurrect a franchise on a national stage (Phoenix, Columbus, Pittsburgh), bring a niche team into the mainstream spotlight (Edmonton, Vancouver, Minnesota) or strengthen the presence of an already established media power (Detroit, Colorado, New York) hoping it will bring the sport back to the forefront?

All three have their merits...
 

Johnnybegood13

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King_Brown said:
Crosby hates Toronto from what his dad said. Crosby needs Calgary, and needs to be with the best player in the world Jarome Iginla.
Scary how good Calgary would be with Crosby :eek:
 

Jeffrey

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King_Brown said:
Crosby hates Toronto from what his dad said. Crosby needs Calgary, and needs to be with the best player in the world Jarome Iginla.
he also said that he would like to play with the habs ..
and the habs need Crosby ! ;)
 

ceber

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Apr 28, 2003
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One flukish season can really mess up your draft! Note to self: When you become GM of a team, make sure you think about when the CBA expires so you can be sure you don't overachieve ever in the years leading up to the next lockout. ;)
 

Lobstertainment

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Nov 26, 2003
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King_Brown said:
Crosby hates Toronto from what his dad said. Crosby needs Calgary, and needs to be with the best player in the world Jarome Iginla.

Link?

I've heard him say his choice of team was Montreal but never heard him say he hates a city or a team.
 
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