Better on Paper- the 2018-19 Red Wings, or the 2020-21 Red Wings

Which team is better on paper?


  • Total voters
    58

NotLeddy

Trust the Yzerscam
Oct 23, 2018
733
672
Felt nostalgic tonight and looked back on some old Awood highlights from 2018-19, and kind of got me assessing that team a bit and re-evaluating some of the players I was higher on before they regressed and couldn't repeat the same season contributing to the disaster which was 2019-20.

But that season Detroit scored 227 goals, which was the second most in any Red Wings season since 2014-15. And that season had 9 overtime wins, which was 2nd in the league that season. A very under-acknowledged reason why Detroit's record was so historically bad last season was that similar roster couldn't get into overtime games. It's not 5v5, but overtime was certainly a big reason why Detroit that season was able to at least have a respectable record for a rebuilding team.

Detroit have genuinely upgraded in some areas this offseason and moved on from players who were below replacement level last season, but still have some major holes (center/special teams/having more than one line driving play), which will likely still have them finish as one of the worst teams in the league, but shouldn't be historically bad again. That 18-19 team had major holes too, AA as 2C, slightly worse defense than this year.

I'm not asking "Is Detroit going to finish higher than the 18-19 team in 20-21?", because no, I don't think they do. That team was 4th worst in the league, and I think other teams than upgraded in areas aside from Detroit, leaving it unrealistic for them to win 32 games in a projected 82 game season. But it's still an interesting conversation, at least to me.

Don't know if it's worth noting that the 2018-19 Red Wings had a lot of injuries, Green missed almost half the season, Hronek wasn't up fulltime till halfway through the year, and Dekeyser missed 30 games. The 20-21 season will have their share of injuries anyways, predictably.




The 2018-19 Detroit Red Wings

Gustav Nyquist-Dylan Larkin-Anthony Mantha
Tyler Bertuzzi-Andreas Athanasiou-Thomas Vanek
Darren Helm-Frans Nielsen-Taro Hirose
Justin Abdelkader-Luke Glendening-Michael Rasmussen
Jacob de la Rose
Christopher Ehn


Danny Dekeyser-Filip Hronek
Niklas Kronwall-Mike Green
Jonathan Ericsson-Nick Jensen
Trevor Daley-Madison Bowey
Luke Witkowski


Jimmy Howard
Jonathan Bernier

Projected 2020-21 Detroit Wings

Robby Fabbri-Dylan Larkin-Anthony Mantha
Tyler Bertuzzi-Valtteri Filppula-Filip Zadina
Bobby Ryan-Vlad Namestnikov-Sam Gagner
Dmityro Timashov-Luke Glendening-Darren Helm
Frans Nielsen
Mattias Brome

Patrik Nemeth-Filip Hronek
Danny Dekeyser-Troy Stecher
Jon Merrill-Alex Biega
Marc Staal

Jonathan Bernier
Thomas Greiss
 
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Pavels Dog

Registered User
Feb 18, 2013
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Forwards and goaltending groups seem pretty equal, defense was better on paper in 18-19 though. Seider might make it closer.
 

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Jun 23, 2018
8,733
5,092
Top Secret Moon Base
Someone posted this on WIIM comments, I didn't check the math but: "Don’t know if you realize: Detroit Red Wings comprise of: 15 #1’s – 15 #2’s – and 12 #3’s throughout their system."
 

jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
10,840
8,558
I think seeing the player stats from 2018-19 might be helpful as well. Was that Larkin's surprisingly productive start? The down years run together...

And as an aside, how do you create a poll? I didn't see the option during the Create a Thread process.
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
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Tampere, Finland
Had these averages on other thread:

3-season avg 2017-20
1. Larkin - 0.83
2. Mantha - 0.71
3. Bertuzzi - 0.62
4. Fabbri - 0.60 (at Detroit only)
5. Ryan - 0.50 (seasons 2016-2019, in better shape)
6. Namestnikov - 0.49
7. Zadina - 0.49
------------------------
Gagner 0.39
Hirose 0.39

Season 2018-19:

1. Larkin 0.96
2. Nyquist 0.79 <--------------- Zadina should jump to this level to equalize the comparison / player spot.
3. Mantha 0.72
4. Athanasiou 0.71 <---------- current Fabbri
5. Bertuzzi 0.64
6. Vanek 0.56 <-------------- current Bobby Ryan
7. Nielsen 0.49 <----------------- current Namestnikov as "Nielsen" update
------------------- Current Top7 is slightly worse in offensive production vs. this 2018-19. But also many existing guys had their best season.
Glendening 0.29
Rasmussen 0.29

Could it be just better-working power-play thanks to Vanek & Kronwall ? ES stats seem equal, but PP stats will add those Top7 forwards who did play most on the PP.
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
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Tampere, Finland
What's common for these new guys at defence, all seem to have low GAA stats in their former teams. At least Stecher and Merrill are like this. Staal had higher GA/60 vs. his former teammates, but had low scoring chance/60 data + low HDCA/60 data.

I think we are gonna go towards a low-scoring team, with better defence+goaltending. All 3 defencemen added were hard to score against. When you add 3 legit guys (DeKeyser, Nemeth, Hronek) from the past to them, you have the core of 6.

I mistakenly thought Stecher would be 2nd PP quarterback option. Doesn't seem like that. He hasn't really been PP player in the past. That spot should be totally open for somebody. Maybe another UFA comes, or Cholowski still has his chance (after losing it for Seider).

Think we are gonna use 7 defenceman, like Tampa has had.

Nemeth - Hronek (solid last year)
DeKeyser - Stecher (both decent defensively)
MStaal - Merrill (D stats look good, traditional 3rd pair starting mostly from own end)
Cholowski (7th D playing with Staal or Merill, if offensive zone faceoffs + 2nd PP duties)
 
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Tatar Shots

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Feb 2, 2014
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Larkin was insanely good that year and made the team look much better than it was. I’m not sure Larkin ever has another season as good as 18-19.
 

PullHard

Jul 18, 2007
28,377
2,452
The difference on ice will probably be negligible but for me the part that is inspiring/ gives me hope is the end of the country club era

No more Howard, Ericsson, Vanek, Abdelkader, etc. Guys Holland probably would have retreaded for a couple more contracts.
 

ShelbyZ

Registered User
Apr 8, 2015
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Don't know if it's worth noting that the 2018-19 Red Wings had a lot of injuries, Green missed almost half the season, Hronek wasn't up fulltime till halfway through the year, and Dekeyser missed 30 games. The 20-21 season will have their share of injuries anyways, predictably.

IMO, it's definitely worth noting.

At some point before the deadline in 2019, I made a thread here analyzing the teams record based on who was healthy or not on D. IIRC, when Green got healthy after that disaster start to the year with all the D injuries and was joined by a healthy DeKeyser and/or Daley, for some 7/8 week period from late October to mid-December the team put up a 20+ game stretch of >.600 hockey with a positive goal differential. Then they lost both DeKeyser and Green, and eventually Daley, and the wheels pretty much fell off the wagon. Then Green and DeKeyser got healthy and the team played a little over .500 for a month, but by then the awful stretch to start the year and the long stretch with all the D injuries through December and January made the season lost and they would shortly thereafter sell at the deadline and start shutting guys down for the year.

Would've been interesting to see what that team would've done with a healthy D to start the year, and then have that D stay healthy for most of the year.
 
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19 for president

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Apr 28, 2002
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I'd say they are a bit of a wash maybe a slight edge to 18/19. It really depends on how well our young forwards do this year.

Offensively I think the 20-21 team has the potential to be better if healthy. I think Larkin, Mantha, Bert, Zadina, Fabbri, and Ryan could have potential up tick years. Health was a big factor last year.

Mantha- Larkin- Zadina
Bert- Fabbri- Ryan
Flip- Namestikov- Timashov/ Svech
Helm- Glenny- Gagner

That lineup has the potential to put up some goals and also be a pain to play again. That 3rd line shouldn't be a total void offensively and I think the 2nd has some good potential too.

Defensively I think the 20-21 team is weaker.

DDK is a major question mark regarding his back.
Hronek is the only dman I'd say is better than 18/19 but is he top pairing better?
Nemeth is solid but unremarkable. Would be a solid 5 on most teams.
Stretcher seems similar to Nemeth based on what I've read as in solid but unremarkable a 5 on a good team.
Staal is basically done
Cholo/Biega/ Merrill are all flawed players that are probably bottom pairing at best.

I still basically see this team as having 1 legit top 4 dman in Hronek. If DDK is healthy maybe he is number 2, but I'm not holding my breath. 18/19 Had Green play good hockey still. Kronwall had a big of a resurgence year. Hronek and Cholo both looked like bright young rookies at different times. DDK was not coming off major back surgery. Jensen had a really solid season, which is why we were able to nab that 2nd from Wash. Wings D might end up a bit better than last year, but its still a train wreck.

Goaltending is a wash. I think Bernier/Greiss will be more solid on average whereas Jimmy provided higher potential in 18/19 with Bernier looking terrible.
 

odin1981

There can be only 1!
Mar 8, 2013
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Canton Mi
Larkin was insanely good that year and made the team look much better than it was. I’m not sure Larkin ever has another season as good as 18-19.

I think you will be surprised once we get a 1a 1b situation again for center. Because atm now, teams only have to focus on Larkins line, no other line is a threat to score.
 
Sep 28, 2017
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Larkin was insanely good that year and made the team look much better than it was. I’m not sure Larkin ever has another season as good as 18-19.

I’m really hoping he will. He was absolutely elite that year and it was so much fun to watch.

I’m surprised at the results of this poll tbh.
 

OgeeOgelthorpe

Baldina
Feb 29, 2020
16,999
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I have a hard time believing people are hopeful about a line of: Ryan Namestnikov Gagner

I may be in the minority here, but with Gagner's contract and his age I'd be surprised if he wasn't used mostly on the 4th line with PP2 minutes.

Plus we all know that the Blashill line blender means that Zadina is going to end up playing with 2 anchors again.

EDIT: I don't think this Wings team plays much better than last season or sees any real progress until we have a proper coaching change.
 

RedWingzz

Everybody loves Raymond
Apr 14, 2009
9,095
4,685
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Call me crazy, but our roster this year is not a complete joke like it has been the last 2 years. I was looking over all teams current rosters, and I don't think we are the worst team in the NHL. I think we will "surprise" some people, in that we will be a competitive team that "could" float around .500 for the year. Our goalies are solid, our D, while lacking star-power suddenly resembles an NHL D group, and our forwards are actually decent.

Wouldn't be shocked if we finish ahead of around 5 teams. This is probably wishful thinking, but I think we will be a competitive team this year.
 

derblaueClaus

Registered User
Oct 6, 2019
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Rotenburg (Wümme)
It's close but that Abby - Glendenning - Rasmussen line is just too awful. Add to that an degressing Kronwall and Jonathan Ericsson on defense and we have winner (or is loser the better term here?).
 

ShanahanMan

Registered User
Jan 31, 2009
2,683
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Tokyo, Japan
It’s not even close. This upcoming season we will actually be icing an NHL team. It’s not a coincidence literally every one of our FA’s have not, and likely will not, sign with any other teams.

I’m actually worried now with the team we’re icing we might not to be bottom feeders which hurts our draft chances.
 

MBH

Players Play
Jul 20, 2019
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Thomas Griess over Jimmy Howard..
Instead of 6 points in 27 starts, we'll get around 20-21

So add 14-15 points and were' at 53-54 points, still in last place by 8-9 points.

I think just being more competitive will wipe away the doom and gloom and instilling a bit more confidence.
So add 4-5 more points.
Now we're at 58-59 points.

A healthy Dekeyser/Mantha - assuming we don't lose another key player for that length of time, probably good for 4-6 points.
62-65 points -
So last place to fourth last.
 

OgeeOgelthorpe

Baldina
Feb 29, 2020
16,999
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Thomas Griess over Jimmy Howard..
Instead of 6 points in 27 starts, we'll get around 20-21

So add 14-15 points and were' at 53-54 points, still in last place by 8-9 points.

I think just being more competitive will wipe away the doom and gloom and instilling a bit more confidence.
So add 4-5 more points.
Now we're at 58-59 points.

A healthy Dekeyser/Mantha - assuming we don't lose another key player for that length of time, probably good for 4-6 points.
62-65 points -
So last place to fourth last.

Add a full season of Zadina which should be an additional 25ish goals to the roster.
Add another 35-40 goals to our 3rd line with Ryan(15), Gagner(10) and Namestnikov(15) instead of Nielsen/Erne/Perlini (7 goals combined)
Then subtract the Bowey mistakes and blown Daley coverage for Merril and Stecher. The two (Daley and Bowey) had to have combined for an easy 10 to 12 points lost in the standings just by game-losing mistakes.

I think this team could either get 65 to 80 points, depending on hot streaks, luck, injuries or slumps.

Still out of the playoffs, but I think we compete most nights.
 
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Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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It’s not even close. This upcoming season we will actually be icing an NHL team. It’s not a coincidence literally every one of our FA’s have not, and likely will not, sign with any other teams.

I’m actually worried now with the team we’re icing we might not to be bottom feeders which hurts our draft chances.

Let me reassure you, this team is lousy and they will be awful. Might someone out-awful us? Sure, anything can happen. But the Wings have yet to release their embrace of the awful.
 

lilidk

Registered User
Mar 4, 2008
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On paper is 18-19, but I prefer 2021 because team looks better defensively
 

ShippinItDaily

Registered User
Apr 28, 2004
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Saskatoon
Let me reassure you, this team is lousy and they will be awful. Might someone out-awful us? Sure, anything can happen. But the Wings have yet to release their embrace of the awful.

Pretty much this.

1st line = average
2nd line = below average
3rd line = below average
4th line = average

Perhaps 1 D pair can be league average, but the other 2 will probably look like average 3rd pairings on an average NHL team at best.

Goaltending should be bottom 1/3 of the league.

PP won't be any better than average and PK could be better than average. Not sure on that.

This is a bad team that is better than the train wreck that ensued last year. Things are changing for the better, but it will certainly be a bad team for at least 1 more season.
 

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