insomniac
High on Hockey
So I just finished a mini project I was working on. I wanted to rank players in terms of 1-2-3-4 (1-2-3 for defensemen) line potential, based on production numbers. Games played threshold was set at 13 games (15% of season), all numbers were even-strength, and production was determined not as points alone, but points-per-60-minutes of ice-time. I took the top 120 left wings, top 120 centers, top 120 right wings, and top 180 defensemen. 30 teams * 4 forward lines = 120. 30 teams * 3 defensive pairs = 180. I then divided all the forward groups into four groups of 30 (lines 1, 2, 3, and 4) and the defensemen groups into three groups of 60 (pairs 1, 2, and 3). I was pleasantly surprised at where the Sens ranked:
Forwards:
Alex Chiasson RW3
Erik Condra RW4
Colin Greening LW4
Mike Hoffman NR
David Legwand C3
Clarke MacArthur LW1
Milan Michalek LW2
Chris Neil RW4
Bobby Ryan RW1
Zack Smith NR
Mark Stone RW2
Kyle Turris C2
Mika Zibanejad C3
*NR = Not Ranked. Player does not produce among the top 120 forwards at his position and is an ideal candidate to be replaced.
**Condra and Neil were both ranked between 91 and 120 at RW. Condra was higher, at 95, while Neil ranked at 109.
*** Zibanejad and Legwand both ranked between 61 and 90 at C. Zibanejad was higher, at 61, while Legwand ranked at 81.
This would give the following lineup, with holes:
MacArthur - XXX - Ryan
Michalek - Turris - Stone
XXX - Zibanejad/Legwand - Chiasson
Greening - XXX - Condra/Neil
If you were to go with that and replace the positions where indicated, Hoffman and Smith would come out of the lineup, Legwand would drop to being a top-of-the-line C4, Neil would become the extra forward, and the Sens would need to add a C1 and LW3.
However, everyone knows that almost every single Senator had a bad year, and probably can’t perform any worse than they did. The only real “unrealistic†expectations we have, according to this system, as follows:
Turris must go from C2 to C1 capable - Turris had a career year last season in goals, assists, and points. There’s every reason to think he’ll get even better, especially if the team around him does too.
Zibanejad must go from C3 to C2 capable – Zibanejad had a career year last season in goals, assists, and points. There’s every reason to think he’ll get even better, especially if the team around him does too.
Hoffman, Prince, Puempel, or Guptill must go from NR to LW3 capable – 24, 21, 21, and 22 years old. Every single one of them had a career year last season in the AHL - goals, assists, and points. Something has to give. To be accurate, Guptill only played 5 AHL games and it was Puempel’s first full season, but they are still excellent candidates.
Smith, Pageau, or Lazar must go from NR to C4 capable – Smith doesn’t seem like he’s got any more upside. Pageau should get another shot and Lazar should finish things out in the WHL.
Defense:
Cody Ceci D2
Jared Cowen D3
Eric Gryba D3
Erik Karlsson D1
Marc Methot D2
Chris Phillips NR
Patrick Wiercioch D1
*NR = Not Ranked. Player does not produce among the top 180 defensemen at his position and is an ideal candidate to be replaced.
**All of the Senators who paired in the same group, shoot on opposing sides. This makes for ideal combinations of:
Wiercioch - Karlsson
Methot - Ceci
Cowen - Gryba
Things that surprised me:
Turris as a C2 (thought he'd qualify as a C1)
Michalek as a LW2 (thought he'd be a LW3)
Stone as a RW2 (thought he'd be RW3 or RW4)
Wiercioch as a D1 (thought he'd be a D2 or D3)
So, to sum it all up, if we meet our four pretty reasonable assumptions, we've got a competitive team:
1 - Turris from C2 to C1
2 - ZBAd from C3 to C2
3 - Hoffman, Prince, Puempel, or Guptill from NR to LW3
4 - Smith, Pageau, or Lazar from NR to C4
If the above four happen, the ideal lineup, especially under P-Mac:
Forwards:
Alex Chiasson RW3
Erik Condra RW4
Colin Greening LW4
Mike Hoffman NR
David Legwand C3
Clarke MacArthur LW1
Milan Michalek LW2
Chris Neil RW4
Bobby Ryan RW1
Zack Smith NR
Mark Stone RW2
Kyle Turris C2
Mika Zibanejad C3
*NR = Not Ranked. Player does not produce among the top 120 forwards at his position and is an ideal candidate to be replaced.
**Condra and Neil were both ranked between 91 and 120 at RW. Condra was higher, at 95, while Neil ranked at 109.
*** Zibanejad and Legwand both ranked between 61 and 90 at C. Zibanejad was higher, at 61, while Legwand ranked at 81.
This would give the following lineup, with holes:
MacArthur - XXX - Ryan
Michalek - Turris - Stone
XXX - Zibanejad/Legwand - Chiasson
Greening - XXX - Condra/Neil
If you were to go with that and replace the positions where indicated, Hoffman and Smith would come out of the lineup, Legwand would drop to being a top-of-the-line C4, Neil would become the extra forward, and the Sens would need to add a C1 and LW3.
However, everyone knows that almost every single Senator had a bad year, and probably can’t perform any worse than they did. The only real “unrealistic†expectations we have, according to this system, as follows:
Turris must go from C2 to C1 capable - Turris had a career year last season in goals, assists, and points. There’s every reason to think he’ll get even better, especially if the team around him does too.
Zibanejad must go from C3 to C2 capable – Zibanejad had a career year last season in goals, assists, and points. There’s every reason to think he’ll get even better, especially if the team around him does too.
Hoffman, Prince, Puempel, or Guptill must go from NR to LW3 capable – 24, 21, 21, and 22 years old. Every single one of them had a career year last season in the AHL - goals, assists, and points. Something has to give. To be accurate, Guptill only played 5 AHL games and it was Puempel’s first full season, but they are still excellent candidates.
Smith, Pageau, or Lazar must go from NR to C4 capable – Smith doesn’t seem like he’s got any more upside. Pageau should get another shot and Lazar should finish things out in the WHL.
Defense:
Cody Ceci D2
Jared Cowen D3
Eric Gryba D3
Erik Karlsson D1
Marc Methot D2
Chris Phillips NR
Patrick Wiercioch D1
*NR = Not Ranked. Player does not produce among the top 180 defensemen at his position and is an ideal candidate to be replaced.
**All of the Senators who paired in the same group, shoot on opposing sides. This makes for ideal combinations of:
Wiercioch - Karlsson
Methot - Ceci
Cowen - Gryba
Things that surprised me:
Turris as a C2 (thought he'd qualify as a C1)
Michalek as a LW2 (thought he'd be a LW3)
Stone as a RW2 (thought he'd be RW3 or RW4)
Wiercioch as a D1 (thought he'd be a D2 or D3)
So, to sum it all up, if we meet our four pretty reasonable assumptions, we've got a competitive team:
1 - Turris from C2 to C1
2 - ZBAd from C3 to C2
3 - Hoffman, Prince, Puempel, or Guptill from NR to LW3
4 - Smith, Pageau, or Lazar from NR to C4
If the above four happen, the ideal lineup, especially under P-Mac:
MacArthur - Turris - Ryan
Michalek - Zibanejad - Stone
Hoffman - Legwand - Chiasson
Greening - Pageau - Condra
Wiercioch - Karlsson
Methot - Ceci
Cowen - Gryba
Anderson
Lehner
Michalek - Zibanejad - Stone
Hoffman - Legwand - Chiasson
Greening - Pageau - Condra
Wiercioch - Karlsson
Methot - Ceci
Cowen - Gryba
Anderson
Lehner
