Best Drafting Teams in the NHL

[TheKingPin]

The last 4 years is more about trends and several teams will move around. However, if Patrick disappoints or does not reach expectations, that 2nd OA pick will affect the rating score to some degree. Flyers have the 9th highest draft position score (16-19) so the expectation is also high because of it.

It will be interesting to see how the last 4 years of drafting ends up for several teams.

Certainly a big year for the flyers all around. And most of it will hinge on recent picks and signings.

 

[Trojans86]

I wonder if you could do something like points above average points per draft spot. You could have a static data set for forwards and defensemen and only track points above expected points for that draft position. so if a 10oa forward is expected to have 50 points after 3 years and your guy has 70, you have 20 points right there.you only get points for guys that exceed the average.

Once you have the expected point curve it would be a pretty easy lookup based on position (f or d), draft position, and years played. would probably be really easy for you to set up actually. Budding out the expected points grid would take a little time and finesse but once dont it would be easy.

Just an idea.

 

[wetcoast]

Liked just because your results confirm my biases.

This is gold.

Also should be the response for many here.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I've been working at this for a while and was curious to see who are the best drafting teams in the NHL.

Just quoting you're opening post for the ease of it, I have read the entire thread.

I appreciate your effort but think your methodology is deeply flawed. I think for any draft analysis to be valid one has to look at the expected value for each pick over the span judged plus at least ten years. This would require looking at each pick taken in a given draft position and defining them in terms of NHL impact and then judging each pick based on how much better or worse it is than the average pick taken at that position. You'd also have to look at each draft class average to those a few years on either side of it and judge if the draft itself was stronger or weaker than average. Lastly, you'd need to account for plausible picks (say picks taken 10 or fewer picks after yours) to see if you missed drafting a better player.

Obviously this is significantly more work, likely a group project done over a span of years, but it more accurately measures things like the Oilers flubbing multiple 1st overall picks. As it is even your in-depth approach to evaluating drafting simply doesn't look at enough factors to be a useful judge of a team's drafting ability.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Just quoting you're opening post for the ease of it, I have read the entire thread.

I appreciate your effort but think your methodology is deeply flawed. I think for any draft analysis to be valid one has to look at the expected value for each pick over the span judged plus at least ten years. This would require looking at each pick taken in a given draft position and defining them in terms of NHL impact and then judging each pick based on how much better or worse it is than the average pick taken at that position. You'd also have to look at each draft class average to those a few years on either side of it and judge if the draft itself was stronger or weaker than average. Lastly, you'd need to account for plausible picks (say picks taken 10 or fewer picks after yours) to see if you missed drafting a better player.

Obviously this is significantly more work, likely a group project done over a span of years, but it more accurately measures things like the Oilers flubbing multiple 1st overall picks. As it is even your in-depth approach to evaluating drafting simply doesn't look at enough factors to be a useful judge of a team's drafting ability.

It's not deeply flawed if you know how to look at stats and track trends where you realize they will change as time moves forward and you get to see more of a sample size. Look at the Habs for example, we are doing well in the last 4 years but you also have to realize that it's early. I used 10 years and multiple 4 year spans cause it's the most recent and it's applied equally to all teams so there is more value to this than saying the Ducks are the best drafting teams with nothing to back it up other than looking at the Ducks only.

Look at the trends and what you thought previously before looking at my post... What teams near the top don't belong? I think my research confirms what we all thought to begin with

The draft position power is important and I REPEAT, IT'S APPLIED EQUALLY TO ALL TEAMS and I have ran various different forms of formulas to find similar results where the typical teams that we think draft well are near the top.

IMO, there is way more value to this than ranking prospect pools where we are all taking guesses on how good or bad certain prospects will be. This is actual results and factual info where there is no opinions. Rules are applied to each team equally

 

[abo9]

Overall, your standings seems like a good approximation of the team shapes right about now except for some exceptions like Ottawa who imploded last year.

Have you tried to see if there is a some sort of correlation between the number of picks and the number of NHL points produced? This might seem obvious, especially for top 10 picks, but I'd be more interested in picks more easily obtainable such as pick 100+ or even picks from rounds 2 and 3.

Poor scouting could be perhaps circumvented with lots of picks (similar to what Montreal is currently doing, crossing fingers it works)

 

[Tables of Stats]

It's not deeply flawed if you know how to look at stats and track trends where you realize they will change as time moves forward and you get to see more of a sample size. Look at the Habs for example, we are doing well in the last 4 years but you also have to realize that it's early. I used 10 years and multiple 4 year spans cause it's the most recent and it's applied equally to all teams so there is more value to this than saying the Ducks are the best drafting teams with nothing to back it up other than looking at the Ducks only.

Look at the trends and what you thought previously before looking at my post... What teams near the top don't belong? I think my research confirms what we all thought to begin with

The draft position power is important and I REPEAT, IT'S APPLIED EQUALLY TO ALL TEAMS and I have ran various different forms of formulas to find similar results where the typical teams that we think draft well are near the top.

IMO, there is way more value to this than ranking prospect pools where we are all taking guesses on how good or bad certain prospects will be. This is actual results and factual info where there is no opinions. Rules are applied to each team equally

If your chart says anything of value that should mean that it is predictive. So, given your confidence in your methodology, are you willing to make projections for the next several drafts based on these rankings? You should be able to pick how well each team will draft independent of draft position or having a first-round pick if your chart is worth a damn.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If your chart says anything of value that should mean that it is predictive. So, given your confidence in your methodology, are you willing to make projections for the next several drafts based on these rankings? You should be able to pick how well each team will draft independent of draft position or having a first-round pick if your chart is worth a damn.

I'm a little late to reply to this lol. Quick answer. This is about evaluating what has happened, not about some future wild guess prediction. If you want that, do your own research and future predictor. I think that's called a crystal ball bud

However, having said all of that, you can tie drafting power as an overall average by using the past and then look at teams that have good drafting power moving forward. Like amount of picks and how many top 10's, how many 1st rounders, and how many top 100's. It's just not an exact science when it comes to throwing darts on a board. Same with each fan base saying other fan base overrate their prospects. I believe that is a game for fools.

This is about verifying who is good at drafting and how they did it

 

[Habs Halifax]

When I got time, I will update the previous reports to include the last few years. Should be interested to see how things changed. Takes hours/days to get this updated. Wish I had access to live stat tracking and link it

 

[Habs Halifax]

Draft power rankings from 2017-2021

 

[Osakahaus]

Best drafting team to me has to be the Senators, simply from how effective they've been as of late with their picks, their actual development, and how they've gotten many later round players as well. They are arguably the team that play's perfectly with the draft, and made themselves better through the draft after their firesale in 2019. I fear what they can do when they have a proper owner for once

 

[Hale The Villain]

Ducks are the best.

Jets, Kings, Canes and Sens probably round out the top 5.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I've really liked Carolina's drafting the last few years. Minnesota looks to finally have some nice talent as well. LA, Ottawa and NYR have some nice prospect pools.

I've really liked my Leafs drafting the last few years.
Sandin, Robertson, Liljegren, Amirov and Niemela all look like sure fire NHLers to me.

Hirvonen, Abruzzese, Abramov, Miettinen, Ovchinnikov, Koster and Kral have all had some good seasons post draft as well

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

...glad to see the Habs drafting better in the last few years, but their Development is still complete crap...still far too focused on plugging immediate holes and not enough focus on the long term...

 

[UrbanImpact]

3 years in a row the Canucks had a Calder winner/finalist on the team. A feat that hadnt been done since the 70s.


Without a top 3 pick the Canucks were able to draft a Franchise C and D and have them surrounded by All-Star level drafted talent.


Pettersson
Hughes
Boeser
Horvat
Demko


Promising young players:

Hoglander, Podkolzon, Rathbone

 

[Osakahaus]

Ducks are the best.

Jets, Kings, Canes and Sens probably round out the top 5.

Anaheim is amazing too with their drafting. They always seem to find some great talent in any nook or cranny. The past few drafts are a great example of that, where they've gained so many massive prospects that their future might be sooner rather than later. My question is if they can get back to form before Gibson is cooked.

 

[cg98]

Jets got a bleh team from Atlanta and drafted these guys:
Scheifele
Ehlers
Connor
Morrissey
Hellebuyck
Stanley
Lowry
Copp

Add in prospects like:
Perfetti
Heinola
Samberg
Luciuz
Chibrikov
Vesalainen
Kuzmin
Kovacevic
Gustafsson
Torgersson
Nikkannen
Chisholm
Lundmark
Smith
Berdin
Holm

With the overwhelming majority of free agents refusing to sign in Winnipeg we HAVE to draft and develop, and we do a pretty good job. Now if only our coach would play some of them

 

[Boo Boo]

Sens, Hurricanes and lightning are 3 of my favorites.

Sharks are my pick for underrated. They've just made some solid picks recently and their farm will skyrocket if they retool for a few more years. It is unfortunate that they traded the pick that became Stutzle because him and Eklund would have been showstealers together.

 

[snipes]

I’ve liked the way the Kings have drafted in recent years. Canes as well.

 

[405Entrance]

Ducks are the best.

Jets, Kings, Canes and Sens probably round out the top 5.

I wouldn’t say the best. They’re very good at finding defensemen and goalies they just can’t hit on forwards for whatever reason. IMO sens and canes have really been killing it recently, in the past 15 years the lightning and sharks have also done pretty well. I like the kings forward prospects a lot but the lack of a true potential #1 goalie and lack of depth in defensemen stops me from rating them higher

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Ottawa is definitely up there, but they're weird.

They'll get gems like Batherson and Stone in late rounds but then make super obvious misses like White over Boeser/Konecny or Thomson over Heinola/Tomasino/McMichael

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Kings are the best drafting team in the league right now.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Lightning, Ducks and Kings are good.

 

[Henkka]

Buffalo has drafted well, but has that team mess forced those draft picks to leave, or how do we judge this last 5 years?

 

[kudla]

Kings at the moment, and its not even close.