Best Drafting Teams in the NHL

Pantokrator

Who's the clown?
Jan 27, 2004
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I appreciate all the work that went into this. I am surprised the Flyers were not as bad as I figured. It would be interesting to go back another 20 years. I would expect the Flyers to drop way back.

Thanks for the work! I hope you do it in another 5 years to see if my Flyers improved at all.
 
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Matchbox 18

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Oct 12, 2018
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Bill Armstrong has been an sneaky good for the blues. He’s done a great job finding value in picks in the end of the first round and later since he took over the draft for them.
 

Habs Halifax

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Thanks for the good comments! It's nice to see everybody receiving it well and not too much negative focus. I guess the results verify what most think so it's one of the reason why it's been received well by several fan bases.

I am currently working on tracking different columns based on a few comments I have seen... This is what I have so far but not finished yet (See Below). I got games played and total points calculated but the next step is to track points by Defenseman, Forwards, and Goalie Wins / Sv%. I am also going to track how many elite level players vs top 9F/top 4D vs depth player vs Bust picks as well.

Any other ideas, let me know! I'm hoping to have this finalized here within a week ish and I also need help on evaluating each teams hits and who would be the Elite, Top 9F/Top 4D, Depth players, and Busts. See below for example with the Habs

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Habs Halifax

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Right but it's a lot harder to produce NHLers with non-first round picks. Not saying the Rangers drafted well just that last is overstated because they had no first round picks for 4 years.

Check out the modified formula print outs I just posted. It addresses your comments.
 

Habs Halifax

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Anaheim is ranked way too low. Something seems flawed and aim guessing it has something to do with Anaheim not having top picks. Or maybe it is because the Ducks will be really rookie heavy next year but those guys havent played much yet.

I wonder if you could weight each pick based on their trade value if you have seen those charts. Then you can simply add up all of the points and divide by whatever metric like points, toi, gp, etc. If you are just categorizing top 10 and Top 100 you are totally oversimplifying. A 1oa is not comparable to a 10 and a team that consistently drafts in the middle of 1st would have a huge advantage over a team that was always a contender and had late firsts or traded away their firsts.

Check out the latest modified formula. You will be happy with the results.
 

Habs Halifax

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The OP deserves a lot more thanks. This seems to be a lot of work to do, and I haven't seen anything better online when it comes to evaluating the drafting of all 31 teams and ranking them. Good job, and I myself really appreciate your work on this!

Thank you. I'm a bit of a nerd when it comes to this stuff so my time is free and I enjoy it. Check out the latest print outs. I made a few modifications based on some peoples comments.
 

Volica

Papa Shango
May 15, 2012
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Really, really great work.
I may have missed it, but how are you scoring elite level picks?
Is it kind of a GP/Points type spread? Looking at the list, I know which player every single one of them is, but I'm just wondering how it's calculated.
 
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Habs Halifax

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Really, really great work.
I may have missed it, but how are you scoring elite level picks?
Is it kind of a GP/Points type spread? Looking at the list, I know which player every single one of them is, but I'm just wondering how it's calculated.

The scoring on the elite level picks is my guess and I understand this can be an argument. I plan on going through this with locked in place guidelines so it's fair to each team but for now, this is what I got.

Elite: 100 point seasons for forwards and 60+ point seasons for Defenseman

Top 9F/Top 4D: You will find a wide range in talent in this group but this limits the arguments on player values. And the difference from someone who just cracks this catigory and someone who is at the top will be factored in with the points they get that is also factored in the overall formula.

Depth Player: Tried to give benifit of the doubt in most cases and players who played more than 100 games (+/-).

Let me know if you feel something should be changed and we can adjust it

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Volica

Papa Shango
May 15, 2012
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Awesome man. Look forward to seeing how this develops.

I really like the stock put into missing a lot in the first round; it checks out. For years we talk about 'great drafting teams' who essentially nail a top 5 pick and flub the rest of a draft.
 
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Habs Halifax

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@TooLegitToQuit
Awesome man. Look forward to seeing how this develops.

I really like the stock put into missing a lot in the first round; it checks out. For years we talk about 'great drafting teams' who essentially nail a top 5 pick and flub the rest of a draft.

Thanks and it's nice to know that you understand the approach. It's results based on quantity of picks and position of picks.
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
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Tampere, Finland
Interesting piece, but I think there are some flaws. It really ignores opportunity cost and misses. The Bruins have drafted well, but they also took Zboril and Senyshyn over Barzal, Chabot, Connor, and Boeser in a stacked draft. Debrusk has turned out well, but passing on those guys hurts a lot, especially when all but Zboril were universally ranked below those guys.

Imo, busts and misses are almost meaningless in bigger organizational picture, if you get star players from lower rounds. You have to get them somewhere, and it doesn't matter where do they come from. As a starting point, almost every pick is a probable miss, so you should put more weight on making those hits and not penalizing of busts too much. On many cases busting is just bad luck and has nothing to do with the organization's drafting skill.
 
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Henkka

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Jan 31, 2004
31,077
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Check out the latest modified formula. You will be happy with the results.

Great work. Seemed to better with these modifications.

I'd like to ask for one "test favor" about Red Wings.

Like, if they would have drafted Boeser, Konecny or Aho instead of Evgeny Svechnikov at 2015 draft, how much would that different player/hit affect on total point scale and ranks? With these 4-year, 8-year and 12-year records etc.
 
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Habs Halifax

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Great work. Seemed to better with these modifications.

I'd like to ask for one "test favor" about Red Wings.

Like, if they would have drafted Boeser, Konecny or Aho instead of Evgeny Svechnikov at 2015 draft, how much would that different player/hit affect on total point scale and ranks? With these 4-year, 8-year and 12-year records etc.

I switched Aho to the Wings and E Svechnikov to the Canes... there was a bit of movement on the rankings but it would be much more in future years when the difference in points is more than 193 and the difference in games played is more than 226.

The other thing to note is I kept the picks locations the same so there was no impact in that area. The only factors with this change would be pts and games played. The 2015 draft is also where I did not factor in draft hit values cause it's too early for a lot of players. If you swapped one bad pick for a good pick from 08-11, I suspect the rise and drop in the rankings would be larger

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93LEAFS

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Imo, busts and misses are almost meaningless in bigger organizational picture, if you get star players from lower rounds. You have to get them somewhere, and it doesn't matter where do they come from. As a starting point, almost every pick is a probable miss, so you should put more weight on making those hits and not penalizing of busts too much. On many cases busting is just bad luck and has nothing to do with the organization's drafting skill.
When you reach to draft a guy who is generally viewed as a 2nd rounder over the guys mentioned that isn't bad luck. That is calling your shot, and then missing terribly.
 
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Gash

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Habs Halifax

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Imo, busts and misses are almost meaningless in bigger organizational picture, if you get star players from lower rounds. You have to get them somewhere, and it doesn't matter where do they come from. As a starting point, almost every pick is a probable miss, so you should put more weight on making those hits and not penalizing of busts too much. On many cases busting is just bad luck and has nothing to do with the organization's drafting skill.

Depends on the angle you want to take. Do you want to look at hits only? Or do you want to look at hits but tie this to quantity of picks and position of picks. I think the best drafting teams should be a factor how many hits they get with their picks but we can't ignore draft position and quantity of picks.

If you were a head scout for a team with only 4 picks and you were being evaluated vs a head scout on other team with 10 picks, how is this fair to you?

Look at Tampa, they drafted Point in the 3rd round and I would consider him elite level. I can't recall for a very long time where someone was taken past the 2nd round that ended up elite level. Lightning from 08-14 is some of the best drafting you will ever see IMO. They hit all over the board and not one 1st round bust either.

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Habs Halifax

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Hey, we're better than Vegas. They really suck.

No worries. Habs sucked almost as worse in the last 12 years. However, the Habs and Canucks are trending much better in the last 4 year sample size. It's early but trends look good in both actual results and prospect pools hope/hype.
 

TheUnseenHand

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Really shows the difference in drafting between the end of Lou's reign with the Devils and the beginning of Shero's. Nice work.
 
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Habs Halifax

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Pretty cool. Nice work!

I was wondering why the flyers were low, but their picks really haven’t done anything much yet.

Edm with 10 top 10 picks stands out. They should be a dynasty.

The last 4 years is more about trends and several teams will move around. However, if Patrick disappoints or does not reach expectations, that 2nd OA pick will affect the rating score to some degree. Flyers have the 9th highest draft position score (16-19) so the expectation is also high because of it.

It will be interesting to see how the last 4 years of drafting ends up for several teams.
 
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