Hockey Outsider
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2005
- 9,118
- 14,305
Who are the greatest clutch goalies in the NHL? Names like Fuhr, Roy and Brodeur immediately come to mind. I wanted to see if their reputations are justified, and I also wanted to come up with a list of the best and worst clutch goalies in history.
In order to see who "money" goalies are, I compared each goalie's regular season save percentage to his playoff save percentage. Clutch goalies should have a higher playoff sv%, meaning that they personally play better when it counts the most. There are potentially other factors to look at, but this is a good place to start. Here's the list:
Goalie, Regular Season Sv%, Playoff Sv%, Difference
Ken Wregget 0.885 0.911 0.026
Olaf Kolzig 0.909 0.927 0.019
Cesare Maniago 0.899 0.916 0.017
John Vanbiesbrouck 0.898 0.915 0.016
Nikolai Khabibulin 0.910 0.926 0.016
Ed Belfour 0.908 0.920 0.012
Grant Fuhr 0.887 0.898 0.011
Tom Barrasso 0.892 0.902 0.010
Bill Ranford 0.888 0.897 0.009
Martin Brodeur 0.912 0.921 0.009
Curtis Joseph 0.908 0.916 0.008
Patrick Roy 0.910 0.918 0.008
Billy Smith 0.897 0.905 0.008
Mike Vernon 0.889 0.896 0.006
Johnny Bower 0.917 0.923 0.006
Bernie Parent 0.911 0.917 0.006
Greg Millen 0.879 0.885 0.006
Mike Richter 0.904 0.909 0.005
Terry Sawchuk 0.910 0.914 0.004
Felix Potvin 0.905 0.909 0.004
Jacques Plante 0.919 0.922 0.004
Rogie Vachon 0.903 0.907 0.003
Chris Osgood 0.907 0.910 0.003
Dominik Hasek 0.924 0.927 0.003
Mike Liut 0.886 0.888 0.002
Ron Hextall 0.894 0.896 0.002
Roger Crozier 0.900 0.902 0.001
Gilles Meloche 0.891 0.891 0.000
Don Beaupre 0.886 0.885 0.000
Gump Worsley 0.912 0.911 -0.001
Kelly Hrudey 0.893 0.891 -0.002
Andy Moog 0.891 0.890 -0.002
Tony Esposito 0.905 0.903 -0.002
Glenn Hall 0.916 0.913 -0.003
Gerry Cheevers 0.905 0.902 -0.004
Edward Giacomin 0.903 0.898 -0.005
Ken Dryden 0.921 0.915 -0.006
Glenn Healy 0.887 0.881 -0.006
Pete Peeters 0.890 0.880 -0.010
Sean Burke 0.902 0.888 -0.014
Daniel Bouchard 0.896 0.880 -0.016
Arturs Irbe 0.899 0.882 -0.017
There are a lot of big names at the top of the list. Turns out that goalies like Fuhr, Smith, Brodeur, Roy and Belfour, who all have reputations of being great clutch goalies, actually DO perform better when it really counts. So their reputations seem to be justified.
There are a few great goalies like Hasek, Dryden and Hall who are average or worse. This doesn't mean they're bad goalies; it means that they don't elevate their play in the playoffs. This makes sense because Hasek, Dryden, etc., were already so good in the regular season it would be almost impossible to improve their play in the postseason.
Last but not least, Joseph comes in 11th place. He's always criticized for "never taking his team to the next level"; but the data here suggests that he's a great clutch goalie on par with Brodeur and Roy for elevating his game when it counts. Is it Joseph's fault that he played on mediocre teams most of his career?
Hopefully this raises some interesting discussions.
In order to see who "money" goalies are, I compared each goalie's regular season save percentage to his playoff save percentage. Clutch goalies should have a higher playoff sv%, meaning that they personally play better when it counts the most. There are potentially other factors to look at, but this is a good place to start. Here's the list:
Goalie, Regular Season Sv%, Playoff Sv%, Difference
Ken Wregget 0.885 0.911 0.026
Olaf Kolzig 0.909 0.927 0.019
Cesare Maniago 0.899 0.916 0.017
John Vanbiesbrouck 0.898 0.915 0.016
Nikolai Khabibulin 0.910 0.926 0.016
Ed Belfour 0.908 0.920 0.012
Grant Fuhr 0.887 0.898 0.011
Tom Barrasso 0.892 0.902 0.010
Bill Ranford 0.888 0.897 0.009
Martin Brodeur 0.912 0.921 0.009
Curtis Joseph 0.908 0.916 0.008
Patrick Roy 0.910 0.918 0.008
Billy Smith 0.897 0.905 0.008
Mike Vernon 0.889 0.896 0.006
Johnny Bower 0.917 0.923 0.006
Bernie Parent 0.911 0.917 0.006
Greg Millen 0.879 0.885 0.006
Mike Richter 0.904 0.909 0.005
Terry Sawchuk 0.910 0.914 0.004
Felix Potvin 0.905 0.909 0.004
Jacques Plante 0.919 0.922 0.004
Rogie Vachon 0.903 0.907 0.003
Chris Osgood 0.907 0.910 0.003
Dominik Hasek 0.924 0.927 0.003
Mike Liut 0.886 0.888 0.002
Ron Hextall 0.894 0.896 0.002
Roger Crozier 0.900 0.902 0.001
Gilles Meloche 0.891 0.891 0.000
Don Beaupre 0.886 0.885 0.000
Gump Worsley 0.912 0.911 -0.001
Kelly Hrudey 0.893 0.891 -0.002
Andy Moog 0.891 0.890 -0.002
Tony Esposito 0.905 0.903 -0.002
Glenn Hall 0.916 0.913 -0.003
Gerry Cheevers 0.905 0.902 -0.004
Edward Giacomin 0.903 0.898 -0.005
Ken Dryden 0.921 0.915 -0.006
Glenn Healy 0.887 0.881 -0.006
Pete Peeters 0.890 0.880 -0.010
Sean Burke 0.902 0.888 -0.014
Daniel Bouchard 0.896 0.880 -0.016
Arturs Irbe 0.899 0.882 -0.017
There are a lot of big names at the top of the list. Turns out that goalies like Fuhr, Smith, Brodeur, Roy and Belfour, who all have reputations of being great clutch goalies, actually DO perform better when it really counts. So their reputations seem to be justified.
There are a few great goalies like Hasek, Dryden and Hall who are average or worse. This doesn't mean they're bad goalies; it means that they don't elevate their play in the playoffs. This makes sense because Hasek, Dryden, etc., were already so good in the regular season it would be almost impossible to improve their play in the postseason.
Last but not least, Joseph comes in 11th place. He's always criticized for "never taking his team to the next level"; but the data here suggests that he's a great clutch goalie on par with Brodeur and Roy for elevating his game when it counts. Is it Joseph's fault that he played on mediocre teams most of his career?
Hopefully this raises some interesting discussions.