I don't think there is much more to be said here. You are still assuming the best of patches, the worst of O'Reilly and indicating we will get a great player at 3rd overall in a deep draft but also indicating there is a reasonable likelihood the 1st overall in that same draft will under perform. You are also assuming the pick next year will be a "top pick". For the value to be fair the assets you are giving all need to hit the mark or exceed expectations and all the ones we are giving need to under perform. I don't need ROR to bounce back, he was a 60 point, two way C, who set the record for faceoff wins last year. We will just keep O'Reilly who is only signed to 32 and not have to count on re-signing a long term deal for a 30 year old player who needs to bounce back and not regress as he gets older to be valuable.
Not that I'm assuming Patches at his best and O'Reilly at his worst but just look at their NHL totals:
Ryan O'Reilly NHL Totals 651 155 267 422 -53
Max Paccioretty NHL Totals 626 226 222 448 +36