Post reserved for Player evaluations 1-to-20 (to be added later tonight)
#1 - Connor McDavid, C - Erie Otters, OHL
Upside - Franchise Center
Comparable - Sidney Crosby
Report : Not sure what I can say that already hasn't been said: he's a franchise player who will be a very good player in the NHL likely from day 1. I don't know about generational talent but he'll end up 'Crosby-like'. Easy call for 1st overall.
#2 - Jack Eichel, C - Boston University, NCAA
Upside - Top line center / Franchise Center
Comparable - Ryan Getzlaf
Report : My comparable for Jack Eichel is Ryan Getzlaf because of the way he sees/thinks the game not because he's a 6'4" 220lbs power forward. To me his potential ranges from #1 center to franchise center and I'd probably lean towards the latter. An easy pick at #2 here.
#3 - Lawson Crouse, LW - Kingston, OHL
Upside - Top 6 Power Forward
Comparable - Gabriel Landeskog
Report : I have Lawson Crouse higher than most but that's because that the package that this particular player brings is pretty hard to find. Crouse made Team Canada's WJC Under 20 team at 17, a feat not easily accomplished but he actually stood out which is something I haven't seen in quite a while from a non-franchise-to-be type of player. My comparable for him is Gabriel Landeskog though, I'm not certain his offensive upside will be as high, I think he'll be more physical and even harder to play against. So while there are guys at #3 with more skill who can and may put up more points up in the NHL, for his overall package of what he brings and TO WIN in the playoffs, I easily and quite confidently put Lawson Crouse at #3. I feel that his FLOOR is 3rd line LW (he can probably play that position on a good portion of NHL teams starting next season) and his ceiling goes up from there.
#4 - Noah Hanifin - Boston College, NCAA
Upside - Top Pairing - 2-way D-man
Comparable - Ryan McDonaugh
Report : Phenomenal passer and puck mover to go along with a big frame and an excellent skater makes Hanifin the top d-man in this draft class. He didn't take as big of a step in his development as I was expecting and the reason why other highly rated d-men closed the gap but there is enough of a body of work to justify him being a top-5 pick. I see Hanifin in the same vain as Ryan McDonaugh in the sense that it might take him a bit longer to develop and his impact in the NHL probably won't come as instantly as other players but with every year he just keeps getting better and better until he's one of the top d-men in the league. Incredibly safe pick, at worst he's a middle pairing #3 d-man. Tons of upside with this kid.
#5 - Matthew Barzal - Seattle, WHL
Upside - Top 6 Playmaking Forward
Comparable - Tyler Johnson
Report : Barzal stood out as one of the better players as an underage player at the Under 18's in April 2014, it was pretty easy to see back then that this guy, as long as his development kept on the right track, would be a first round pick in this year's draft. Barzal played again in that very same tournament this year and flat out dominated. How he translates over to the NHL is another matter but I think his upside is top-6 foward for sure though it might take a few years to get there. He's an excellent playmaker who thrives on feeding his teammates, a very good skater, very elusive, good positioning. His defensive play could use improvement but at this stage in his career, is certainly not abnormal and nothing that isn't coachable, in my opinion. A pretty safe pick anywhere in the top 10. If a team selects him outside the top 10, it's a steal.
#6 - Ivan Provorov - Brandon, WHL
Upside - Top Pairing Offensive D-man
Comparable - Sergei Gonchar (in his prime)
Report : A smart cerebral player with very good positoning, very good at anticipating plays and closing gaps. Has A bit of an awkward skating stride or perhaps it's the way he holds his stick that makes him standout, you can tell when he's on the ice. Tough to find a flaw in his game, he makes outstanding reads due to a high hockey IQ. He's going to be an excellent 2-way d-man. Has a knack for making the smart, safe play and knows when it's time to jump. My comparable for Provorov is Sergei Gonchar in his prime. Earlier on in his career, Gonchar was a more run & gun type of player and he eventually settled down to play a solid 2-way game all the while putting up good numbers. That's the guy I'm comparing Provorov with.
#7 - Jakub Zboril - Saint John, QMJHL
Upside - Top 3 - 2-way D-Man
Comparable - Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Report : He is hands-down my favourite prospect in this years draft. I see him as a home run pick. Fantastic puck moving d-man, with great skating ability who can anticipate and read plays with a bit of a mean streak. I see his FLOOR as a #4 guy and he could become a top pairing guy who's hard to play against. I don't expect Zboril to be a top-10 pick but the team who ends up getting him (likely between #11-20) should be thrilled because they are getting top-10 value, in my opinion. My comparable for him is Marc-Edouard Vlasic because I see the same type of solid 2-way play eventually from a kid like Zboril.
#8 - Zach Werenski - Michigan, NCAA
Upside - Top 3 - 2-way D-Man
Comparable - Cam Fowler
Report : - Zach Werenski flies somewhat under the radar, a bit like my comparable did during his draft year by most, especially with the Top D available in this draft but he's absolutely a sure-fire top-10 pick, in my opinion. When you combine the fact that he's a great skater and excellent puck mover, two qualities that are at a premium in today's NHL, with his size and ability to read plays, he'll hear his name called before long at the draft. His defensive game could use some improvements but that's more of a normal part of his development rather than a flaw. It's a coachable thing and I have no doubts he'll get where he needs to be. Great pick for whoever drafts him and like Fowler who was highly rated and dropped a little, Werenski is going to have a big impact on an NHL team sooner rather than later.
#9 - Mitch Marner - London, OHL
Upside - Top 6 Offensive Forward
Comparable - J. Eberle / C. Giroux
Report : Mitch Marner has grown on me. It took me some time to warm up to this player, I must admit. He reminds me of a cross between Jordan Eberle and Claude Giroux, so the upside is certainly there. His playmaking is top-notch, he's got good wheels, is a solid forechecker, makes great reads. However, he's clearly not the biggest player and while he's elusive and doesn't shy away from the physical stuff, that's likely not going to be his game at the NHL level. He should turn out to be a solid point-producing top-6 forward within 2-3 years. While a solid top 10 pick in this year's very deep draft, this pick does come with some question marks. I do think Marner does end up getting there though, whether he makes an almost instant impact like Eberle/Giroux or takes a longer road like Daniel Briere did, he should be a top 6 forward in the not too distant future.
#10 - Mikko Rantanen - TPS, SM Liiga
Upside - Top 6 - 2-way Forward
Comparable - James Van Riemsdyk
Report : Rantanen is a big, skilled player who plays a solid 2-way game and doesn't shy away from physical play. He has a very nice skill set and there are not a lot of flaws to his game. From everything I've seen from Rantanen, I get the feeling watching him play that there is still a lot more to come from this kid. That said, when talking about upside with a player like this, I find it more difficult to say that he'll for sure top out as a 1st line player. He very well might, if he keeps on the same development path but there is a good chance that you end up with a 2nd line winger, which is still pretty darn good.
#11 - Sebastian Aho - Karpat, SM Liiga
Upside - Top 6 Offensive Forward
Comparable - Jaden Schwartz
Report : I had no idea what to expect when I first saw this guy play but it's pretty hard not to like the way this kid plays the game. Hard worker, excellent skater, very good at reading plays, probably an underated playmaker as well. What I like most about his game is his vision. He has the ability to find seams and get players the puck on their stick unlike very few in this draft. I have him ranked higher than most because he shows flashes of what he's capable of doing while playing against tough competition. He's going to need to get stronger to make an impact but If he continues to develop and gain confidence, he's going to be a one hell of a player. He's very underated in my opinion. My comparable for Aho is Jaden Schwartz, a player by the way, who was ranked as an early 2nd round pick by most in 2010. Shrewd talent evaluator Jarmo Kekäläinen thought enough of Schwartz to select him 14th overall (I had Schwartz 15th in 2010) so before you scoff at this ranking, let that sink in. I don't expect a team to use a 1st round pick on him but watch out for Columbus in the early second round (#34 or #38), I wouldn't be surprised if Jarmo jumped on him then.
#12 - Pavel Zacha - Sarnia Sting, OHL
Upside - 2nd / 3rd line Forward
Comparable - Alexander Barkov / Radek Bonk
Report : Pavel Zacha has all of the tools and skills to be a very good player in the NHL. He's versatile, can play wing or center and doesn't shy away from the physical stuff. He's a pretty good skater and has an excellent shot. For whatever reason, I just don't see star potential with this player. I think he plays the game a lot like Aleksander Barkov which is my comparable in this case. (I didn't believe in Barkov as a Top 3 pick back in 2013 - ranked him 13th) and from what I'm seeing, Zacha probably shouldn't be in the top 10 in this draft. However, that doesn't mean he still can't be a very solid top-6 or top-9 guy. Picking him in the 11-20 range should be really good value. He also kind of reminds me of Radek Bonk.
#13 - Kyle Conor - Youngstown, USHL
Upside - 2nd line Offensive Forward
Comparable - Nikita Kucherov
Report : Has phenomenal straight-away speed and acceleration, is crafty and elusive. Is a player that works hard and is defensively aware even though you can tell he's just thinking about the next opportunity he can use his speed to break up the ice again. He can check though he's not particularly efficient in that regard. This is the type of player who's future success would be best served on the philosophy of the team that drafts him. A team that places speed and game-breaking ability at the forefront would be the best fit for sure. Probably tops out as a 2nd line forward.
#14 - Thomas Chabot, Saint John, QMJHL
Upside - Top 4 - 2-way D-man
Comparable - Keith Yandle
Report : Thomas Chabot is a smooth skating, 2-way puck moving d-man who compares really well to a player like Keith Yandle. He's got decent size, though he probably needs to fill out a little. I think this kid is a safe bet to be selected in the first round and I'd be pretty surprised if he wasn't taken between #12 and #20. I'd say his upside is probably that of a #2 d-man and his floor is probably that of a #5. I'd be surprised if he didn't end up somewhere in the middle after it's all said and done.
#15 - Jansen Harkins - Prince George, WHL
Upside - Top 9 - 2-way Forward
Comparable - Zemgus Girgensons
Report : I am a big fan of Jansen Harkins. I'm generally tougher on 2nd generation guys since I believe their road up to this point, could be thought of as 'easier' in certain situations (thanks to 'connections'). Regardless if that was the case or not for Harkins, his solid 2-way play totally won me over. He's the kind of player that can probably slot in anywhere in your top-9 and still play an excellent, defensively responsible game. My comparable for him is Zemgus Girgensons and I see him very much as that type of player. Harkins will need to work to improve his skating at the NHL level to be truly effective but I don't see it as something that will necessarily hold him back either. A really safe pick.
#16 - Dylan Strome - Erie, OHL
Upside - Top 9 Offensive Forward
Comparable - Patrick Berglund
Report : What's this? The top scorer in the OHL, who is draft eligible who EVERYONE has in their top-10 if not top-5 is listed at #16?? Yes, he is. I didn't know what to expect when I first started watching Dylan Strome, I was expecting him to be a lot like his brother. It could be a big coincidence but every single time I've watched him, I came away unimpressed. It's not that he doesn't have offensive ability, he has that part of the game down pat. It's everything else that has me questioning whether this kid is really a top 10 in this draft. Everytime I've seen him, he's been a step behind...whether that's getting into the correct position in the defensive zone or coming back and taking his man or checking down low on the cycle. Some of that can be taught, sure but there's also some of it that's directly related to 'compete' and that scares me if you're talking about a top-5 or even top-10 pick. To me, Strome has a higher bust % than anyone else I have rated going 1 through 15. I compare him to Patrick Berglund because he's the type of player that has very good size, is a pretty good skater and would appear to be the complete package but can never consistenly put it all together to be a force in the NHL. Is it possible that Strome puts everything together and becomes a talented #1 center? Yes. Is it possible that he struggles to put it all together and becomes a 3rd line center like Berglund. Yes. Is it possible that he struggles even more than that to make the NHL? Yes. That's the reason for my 'lower' ranking but I fully expect an NHL team to pick him in the top 10.
#17 - Vince Dunn - Niagara, OHL
Upside - Top 4 - 2-way D-man
Comparable - Niklas Kronwall
Report : Another one of my favourites from this draft, I really like what this kid brings. A very good skater who makes excellent decisions with the puck and moves the puck very well. These kinds of defensemen are at a premium in the NHL nowadays. While his upside is probably not as high as top pairing, he has an excellent chance at becoming a solid middle pairing d-man in the NHL. His style reminds me of Niklas Kronwall.
#18 - Evgeni Svechnikov - Cape Breton, QMJHL
Upside - 2nd / 3rd line 2-way Forward
Comparable - Alex Burmistrov
Report : I think the comparable in this case is very, very appropriate as there is a body of work with this player that you can see that if he puts it all together, he could really be something special. I always felt the same way about Alex Burmistrov but for some reason, he always seems to leave you wanting a bit more. From what I've seen from Svechnikov this year, he would likely top out as a 2nd or 3rd line center and there's still really good value in that in the 2nd half of the first round where he's very likely to be selected.
#19 - Timo Meier - Halifax, QMJHL
Upside - 2nd / 3rd line Scoring Winger
Comparable - James Neal
Report : Timo Meier is an interesting an interesting prospect. I've seen this kid for a couple of years now and I was actually surprised to find out that he was 6'1 and over 200lbs. For whatever reason, I thought he seemed smaller than that. Regardless, he's got some really good skill and a lot of ability but I tend to have a bit of an issue with his intensity. I don't see top line upside but he could still make an impact as a top-9 guy.
#20 - Travis Konecny, Ottawa, OHL
Upside - 2nd line Scoring Winger
Comparable - Bryan Little
Report : Konecny seemed to have had an up and down year. After watching him play for Canada as an underager in the 2014 Under 18 tournament, my expectations were sky high for him. He's still got the talent to be a first round pick and while his road to the NHL might take longer than some of the other talent in this year's draft, the wait should be well worth it for a team looking for a sniper. You're probably not looking at a top line guy but 2nd - 3rd line scorer is likely where he ends up.
