Bender/THP 2019 NHL Draft Guide - Top 100 Prospects

[Bender]

Bender, this is awesome. You should definitely be charging for this. I’ll throw you a donation.

I’m on Team Pod and Boldy at 4, but I don't think the Avs are leaning that way at all.

Great job as usual.

Thanks for the amazing list. Very helpful.

Couple questions why so low on Byram? You say 1st pairing potential, but have him at 10 under a couple of guys like Newhook, Podkolzin, Cozens etc. who probably end up more of 2nd line guys.

Why so high on Dach? One if his big knocks is effort level consistencies. If I'm drafting at 3, I don't think I'd want a guy with effort question marks. Are his laziness concerns overblown?

First of all...thank you for all the kind words!

For Byram, I was talking to a friend last night and I explained it this way - I've been watching prospects for a long time and sometimes you just get a feeling by watching their play, that maybe he's just not going to translate over the way people think. So let's say for the sake of argument - 50% of time you're right and 50% of the time you're wrong when you get that kind of feeling - would you take a chance on that player you're 'iffy' about with a Top-5 pick? I wouldn't.

The feeling I get with Byram is the same feelling I had with Ryan Murray - that he's going to end up a good player but not as good as people anticipate. I think he'll be like Keith Yandle in terms of quality - a good point producer that can play a lot of minutes but probably not a true #1 guy. I think the best fit for him would be to go to LA where they can pair him up with Doughty and have him learn that way.

I know it's not a popular opinion but if you told people prior to the 2012 draft that Murray might not even be a Top-4 guy 7 years later, people would have laughed. To be fair, I do think Byram ends up better than Murray.

For Kirby Dach, I think it depends on what your expectations are for that player and part of that is knowing what kind of player he is. I think that some of the knocks that I've seen against him are also the same stuff I remember reading about Ryan Getzlaf. When I found out that Getzlaf was his favourite player and the guy he patterned himself after, it all made sense because he plays just like him.

So yeah, a lot of times, it looks as though he's just kind out of there not really doing anything and I absolutely get that people might want him to be more engaged but I think that when it looks like he's doing nothing - he's analyzing and waiting to strike. I liked him well enough throughout the year (specifically his vision and playmaking ability - it's really good) but I thought he really stood out during the playoffs. He looked completely engaged and out there to make a difference.

If you guys are interested, I have some video I could upload (I'll create a you tube channel or something).

 

[avsfan09]

First of all...thank you for all the kind words!

For Byram, I was talking to a friend last night and I explained it this way - I've been watching prospects for a long time and sometimes you just get a feeling by watching their play, that maybe he's just not going to translate over the way people think. So let's say for the sake of argument - 50% of time you're right and 50% of the time you're wrong when you get that kind of feeling - would you take a chance on that player you're 'iffy' about with a Top-5 pick? I wouldn't.

The feeling I get with Byram is the same feelling I had with Ryan Murray - that he's going to end up a good player but not as good as people anticipate. I think he'll be like Keith Yandle in terms of quality - a good point producer that can play a lot of minutes but probably not a true #1 guy. I think the best fit for him would be to go to LA where they can pair him up with Doughty and have him learn that way.

I know it's not a popular opinion but if you told people prior to the 2012 draft that Murray might not even be a Top-4 guy 7 years later, people would have laughed. To be fair, I do think Byram ends up better than Murray.

For Kirby Dach, I think it depends on what your expectations are for that player and part of that is knowing what kind of player he is. I think that some of the knocks that I've seen against him are also the same stuff I remember reading about Ryan Getzlaf. When I found out that Getzlaf was his favourite player and the guy he patterned himself after, it all made sense because he plays just like him.

So yeah, a lot of times, it looks as though he's just kind out of there not really doing anything and I absolutely get that people might want him to be more engaged but I think that when it looks like he's doing nothing - he's analyzing and waiting to strike. I liked him well enough throughout the year (specifically his vision and playmaking ability - it's really good) but I thought he really stood out during the playoffs. He looked completely engaged and out there to make a difference.

If you guys are interested, I have some video I could upload (I'll create a you tube channel or something).

100% agree with the bolded. That's exactly how I would make a case against the people that question his compete. I think alot of people overvalue hard work vs smart work. Effectiveness is more important.

 

[Foxtail]

First of all...thank you for all the kind words!

For Byram, I was talking to a friend last night and I explained it this way - I've been watching prospects for a long time and sometimes you just get a feeling by watching their play, that maybe he's just not going to translate over the way people think. So let's say for the sake of argument - 50% of time you're right and 50% of the time you're wrong when you get that kind of feeling - would you take a chance on that player you're 'iffy' about with a Top-5 pick? I wouldn't.

The feeling I get with Byram is the same feelling I had with Ryan Murray - that he's going to end up a good player but not as good as people anticipate. I think he'll be like Keith Yandle in terms of quality - a good point producer that can play a lot of minutes but probably not a true #1 guy. I think the best fit for him would be to go to LA where they can pair him up with Doughty and have him learn that way.

I know it's not a popular opinion but if you told people prior to the 2012 draft that Murray might not even be a Top-4 guy 7 years later, people would have laughed. To be fair, I do think Byram ends up better than Murray.

For Kirby Dach, I think it depends on what your expectations are for that player and part of that is knowing what kind of player he is. I think that some of the knocks that I've seen against him are also the same stuff I remember reading about Ryan Getzlaf. When I found out that Getzlaf was his favourite player and the guy he patterned himself after, it all made sense because he plays just like him.

So yeah, a lot of times, it looks as though he's just kind out of there not really doing anything and I absolutely get that people might want him to be more engaged but I think that when it looks like he's doing nothing - he's analyzing and waiting to strike. I liked him well enough throughout the year (specifically his vision and playmaking ability - it's really good) but I thought he really stood out during the playoffs. He looked completely engaged and out there to make a difference.

If you guys are interested, I have some video I could upload (I'll create a you tube channel or something).

Well said mate and I get the same feeling with Byram. A ot of it is I don't like his skating but most is just that feeling you get watching him. For me good player but not a star stud

 

[cgf]

Yes it's more unlikely he becomes a 1st pairing guy. But guys who are viewed as potential top pairing guys typically are viewed higher than those who are 1st/2nd like tweeners types. Hence my question of why did he have Byram who he said had first pairing potential, below guys that are more likely than not going to be 50-65pts at best forwards.

Does he see all the guys mentioned above Byram as 65+ points guys and Byram more a 2nd pairing guy. I was just looking for some feel as to why he went so low on a guy most people feel has first pairing potential.

True but #2's like Byram aren't generally viewed as highly as star first line forwards like Zegras, Podkolzin & Caufield.

 

[cgf]

100% agree with the bolded. That's exactly how I would make a case against the people that question his compete. I think alot of people overvalue hard work vs smart work. Effectiveness is more important.

Though I do agree that that happens a lot on HF, it's a false choice when you phrase it like that...a player can work hard & smart; see ROR, Landy & Pod

 

[avsfan09]

Though I do agree that that happens a lot on HF, it's a false choice when you phrase it like that...a player can work hard & smart; see ROR, Landy & Pod

Obviously you can play hard and smart never said that you couldn't. I'm saying Lidstrom worked smart and efficiently. Kopitar to me is in the same bout. Those players can be just as frustrating to play against. They just stay on the right side and take away your space until you have none and are forced into a mistake.

 

[S E P H]

Wonderful list @Bender , seems like a lot of players I like you also like such as Robertson, Bjornfot, Thomson, Helleson, Has (super raw though), Puistola, and Nousiainen. I really hope you're not throwing me a bone with Nousiainen because I am a huge fan of this lad and I suggest he's going to be a big riser in many re-draft threads in the years to come.

One aspect you're going to have to explain to me is what in the name of God is Artemi Kniazev doing that high? It's not that I hate him, but what do you like to list him in the top 20? I personally see a smooth skating defender that's a bit too small for my liking and plays a bit too much of a junior style of game for me. With that said, I definitely would not mind the risk taking him with one of our third rounders.

Korczak is pretty high too, especially for a shutdown defenceman without a lot of tools or dynamic ability. Rather pass on him, don't see him as a special prospect nor someone I would draft over Vukojevic IMHO.

Also not a huge fan of Mastrosimone, good sniper with natural goalscoring instincts, but man I suggest he needs a lot of work in a lot of different areas. Just too much work that he isn't worth the time or development considering Avs track record.

Great job though!

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[S E P H]

So Bender, Hench, Barklez and I all have iffy feelings on Byram...

Man it's either we're right or we're going to look stupid if he becomes Drew Doughty 2.0.

 

[henchman21]

So Bender, Hench, Barklez and I all have iffy feelings on Byram...

Man it's either we're right or we're going to look stupid if he becomes Drew Doughty 2.0.

I don’t need him to be Doughty 2.0 for me to look stupid.

Always love Bender’s lists! Don’t always see eye to eye, but love to see

 

[timothy jimothy]

Another thing too that I think gets missed with Dach, is that Saskatoon is a fairly conservative team. Sure they aren't the Everett Silvertips, but they still had the 4th lowest goals against in the WHL playing in the higher scoring eastern conference. They weren't really a team that pushes the pace like us Avs fans may be used to watching.

In some cases, what people may be knocking Dach's effort level for is actually just an effect of him playing his assignment. He's very good, almost to a fault, at recognizing where he needs to be to support his linemates. That's not to say the consistency issues are not there, but I think people give him a lot of unwarranted flack for something I see as a positive in his game.

Basically, if hockey was a chess match, Kirby Dach would be Saskatoon's Queen. He keeps everything together for them, but he also demands the other team's full attention because he is quietly waiting for the perfect opportunity to make his presence known.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Always love your list. You are never afraid to go against the consensus. Obviously I don't agree with all of it but well done nonetheless.

I especially like where you have Bjornfot and Beecher. I think both players are underrated on these boards and by the scouts.

 

[Foxtail]

So Bender, Hench, Barklez and I all have iffy feelings on Byram...

Man it's either we're right or we're going to look stupid if he becomes Drew Doughty 2.0.

I'm another

 

[Foxtail]

Always love your list. You are never afraid to go against the consensus. Obviously I don't agree with all of it but well done nonetheless.

I especially like where you have Bjornfot and Beecher. I think both players are underrated on these boards and by the scouts.

Beecher name appeared a lot on the combine tests .

 

[Bender]

Wonderful list @Bender , seems like a lot of players I like you also like such as Robertson, Bjornfot, Thomson, Helleson, Has (super raw though), Puistola, and Nousiainen. I really hope you're not throwing me a bone with Nousiainen because I am a huge fan of this lad and I suggest he's going to be a big riser in many re-draft threads in the years to come.

One aspect you're going to have to explain to me is what in the name of God is Artemi Kniazev doing that high? It's not that I hate him, but what do you like to list him in the top 20? I personally see a smooth skating defender that's a bit too small for my liking and plays a bit too much of a junior style of game for me. With that said, I definitely would not mind the risk taking him with one of our third rounders.

Korczak is pretty high too, especially for a shutdown defenceman without a lot of tools or dynamic ability. Rather pass on him, don't see him as a special prospect nor someone I would draft over Vukojevic IMHO.

Also not a huge fan of Mastrosimone, good sniper with natural goalscoring instincts, but man I suggest he needs a lot of work in a lot of different areas. Just too much work that he isn't worth the time or development considering Avs track record.

Great job though!

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

What bone? I've loved Kim Nousiainen since last year's U18s. I wanted to make a video montage of him for NHL scouts with "Simple Minds' - Don't You Forget About Me" playing in the background but I ran out of time. If he goes undrafted like Fagemo did last year, I may freak out!

For Kniazev, I'm a huge fan because of his smarts and decision making. I don't know, I guess in that 1-2 second time span when he retrieves the puck in the corner and has to make a quick decision because of the pressure, I've found that he makes the right call a very large percentage of the time. It's not only that but that's part of it and an example of why I like him so much. I really like the way he thinks the game. It would be nice if he was a little bigger but I never got the feeling watching him that he was small. We'll see how it goes but I'm expecting big things from him next year. If the Avs snag him, I will be thrilled!

 

[Nihiliste]

Thanks for the great list as always. I like your take on Dach. Would be fine with him as the pick. Also nervous about Byram. It seems for every top 4 Doughty, Pietrangelo, or Hedman you have a Murray, EJ, Barker. Miss rate seems a bit higher for dmen in the top 3/4 than forwards. After that threshold forwards seem to miss just as often

 

[Ivan13]

I can't begin to grasp how much work went into this. And even though I don't agree with some of the rankings, I have nothing but utmost respect for your opinion. Quite sad you don't post more here even though we didn't always see eye to eye when it came to player evaluations, as your input is always well thought out and backed up.

Kudos @Bender

 

[Bender]

I can't begin to grasp how much work went into this. And even though I don't agree with some of the rankings, I have nothing but utmost respect for your opinion. Quite sad you don't post more here even though we didn't always see eye to eye when it came to player evaluations, as your input is always well thought out and backed up.

Kudos @Bender

Thanks Ivan.

 

[cgf]

Knyazev doesn't remind you of Ty Smith or a shorter Bigras?

 

[Bender]

Knyazev doesn't remind you of Ty Smith or a shorter Bigras?

Moreso Ty Smith than Bigras. For me Bigras was always like Jordan Leopold and I was never really that enamored with him...just was kind of hoping it would work out.

 

[cgf]

Moreso Ty Smith than Bigras. For me Bigras was always like Jordan Leopold and I was never really that enamored with him...just was kind of hoping it would work out.

You're high on Smith IIRC, right?

I obviously like Smith's mobility & he does a good job of reading the game to determine what "the right play" is...but he triggers all of the same concerns I have about Byram struggling to create offense at the next level because you generally can't create consistently just by "taking what they give you" because I don't see the kind of slipperiness/hands to make simple passes dangerous ones just with his skating and I don't see him showing enough proficiency with the kind of creative passes that create danger even without his skating pulling defenders out of position. Which is why I don't see more than a middle pairing guy who may peak near Spurgeon-level briefly.

...and I feel the exact same way about Knyazev's upside; only I'm less certain he'll even be a solid NHLer.

PS - amazing work btw, in case I hadn't tipped my hat to you on this before

 

[Bender]

You're high on Smith IIRC, right?

I obviously like Smith's mobility & he does a good job of reading the game to determine what "the right play" is...but he triggers all of the same concerns I have about Byram struggling to create offense at the next level because you generally can't create consistently just by "taking what they give you" because I don't see the kind of slipperiness/hands to make simple passes dangerous ones just with his skating and I don't see him showing enough proficiency with the kind of creative passes that create danger even without his skating pulling defenders out of position. Which is why I don't see more than a middle pairing guy who may peak near Spurgeon-level briefly.

...and I feel the exact same way about Knyazev's upside; only I'm less certain he'll even be a solid NHLer.

PS - amazing work btw, in case I hadn't tipped my hat to you on this before

I liked Ty Smith but I ranked him 12th last year. I believed then as I do now that he's going to end up a Top-4 guy. To me his potential is that he probably ends up anywhere from #2 to a #4.

For Kniazev, as I wrote in my guide, I think he ends up a middle pairing guy. I'll be pretty surprised if someone takes him in the first round but I do think he'll end up a 2nd round pick.

 

[LieutenantDangle]

You are way too kind to us Bender. Great work

 

[Pokecheque]

I got some major cramming to do between this and the latest Bobcast. Listening to the latter now while at work. Should've done it sooner but the Jack Reacher audiobook I was listening to was just too compelling.

 

[Frenchy]

Great job Bender

 

[Pokecheque]

Bender's sleeper pick, Nicholas Robertson, hasn't been mentioned yet.