Bender/THP 2019 NHL Draft Guide - Top 100 Prospects

[Bender]

Howdy folks,

Here is the link to download my FREE guide. I hope you enjoy it :

THP NHL DRAFT GUIDES - The Hockey Prospector

Rankings :

1	Jack Hughes, C
2	Kaapo Kakko, RW
3	Kirby Dach, C
4	Spencer Knight, G
5	Matthew Boldy, LW
6	Dylan Cozens, C
7	Vasili Podkolzin, RW
8	Alex Turcotte, C
9	Alex Newhook, C/LW
10	Bowen Byram, LD
11	Nicholas Robertson, RW
12	Peyton Krebs, LW/C
13	Cole Caufield, RW
14	Philip Broberg, LD
15	Trevor Zegras, RW/C
16	Tobias Bjornfot, LD
17	Lassi Thomson, RD
18	Moritz Seider, RD
19	Raphael Lavoie, RW
20	Ryan Suzuki, C
21	Artemi Kniazev, LD
22	Cam York, LD
23	Albin Grewe, LW/RW
24	John Beecher, C/LW/RW
25	Arthur Kaliyev, RW/LW
26	Thomas Harley, LD
27	Nathan Légaré, RW
28	Daniil Gutik, LW
29	Victor Soderstrom, RD
30	Hugo Alnefelt, G
31	Kaedan Korczak, RD
32	Brett Leason, RW
33	Drew Helleson, RD
34	Brayden Tracey, LW
35	Simon Holmstrom, LW/RW
36	Bobby Brink, RW
37	Philip Tomasino, C/RW
38	Matthew Robertson, LD
39	Martin Hugo Has, RD
40	Jamieson Rees, LW
41	Mikko Kokkonen, LD
42	Ville Heinola, LD
43	Vladislav Kolyachonok, LD
44	Nolan Foote, LW
45	Marshall Warren, LD
46	Ryan Johnson, LD
47	Anttoni Honka, RD
48	Patrik Puistola, LW/RW
49	Robert Mastrosimone, LW
50	Mads Sogaard, G

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

51	Alex Vlasic, LD
52	John Farinacci, C
53	Nikita Okhotyuk, LD
54	Henry Thrun, LD
55	Josh Nodler, C
56	Kim Nousiainen, LD
57	Samuel Poulin, LW
58	Ilya Nikolayev, C
59	Connor McMichael, C
60	Pavel Dorofeyev, RW
61	Michal Teply, RW
62	Nils Hoglander, LW
63	Albert Johansson, LD
64	Owen Lindmark, C/RW
65	Nikola Pasic, RW
66	Jordan Spence, RD
67	Maxim Cajkovic, RW/LW
68	Dmitri Tyuvilin, LD
69	Samuel Fagemo, RW
70	Kirill Slepets, LW
71	Daniil Misyul, LD
72	Colten Ellis, G
73	Layton Ahac, LD
74	Michael Vukojevic, LD
75	Juuso Parssinen, C/LW
76	Yaroslav Likhachyov, RW
77	Yegor Spiridonov, C
78	Samuel Bolduc, LD
79	Henri Nikkanen, C
80	Shane Pinto, C
81	Albert Lyckasen, RD
82	Karl Henriksson, C
83	Pyotr Kochetkov, G
84	Egor Afanaseyev, LW
85	Jakob Pelletier, LW
86	Patrick Moynihan, RW
87	Maxence Guenette, RD
88	Judd Caulfield, RW
89	Grant Silianoff, LW
90	Luka Burzan, C
91	Joel Wahlgren, LW
92	Adam Liska, LW
93	Luke Toporowski, LW
94	Jack Jensen, C/LW
95	Keean Washkurak, C
96	Ben Brinkman, LD
97	Lukas Parik, G
98	Aarne Intonen, LW/RW
99	Leevi Aaltonen, LW
100	Aaron Huglen, RW

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Click to read more...

 

[Rumplesnipeskin]

Thanks for posting, always look forward to seeing your perspective each year

And for the nerd joke of the day... I hear Krebs’ play is excellent off the cycle

 

[Gabe the Babe]

That’s my top 4 too!

 

[Balthazar]

Dach at #3 and Knight at #4, that's ballsy.

 

[AvsRobin]

Good work. I assume you disagree with me about Dach+Knight being the last picks I wanna see huh?

I like to see these raw lists that doesn't follow the general consensus, just one scouts opinion before it all "normalizes" on the combined list.

I haven't seen any of the NA boys except for at WJC perhaps, but its interesting to me that you seem to have all the guys I like (based on second hand info and reading) very low and all the boys I fear us taking high.

 

[avsfan09]

I'm also a slight fan of Dach haha. Thoughts on his upside, projection/floor and skating?

Edit:I see thats all in the draft guide haah. Appreciate the work you put in.

 

[Balthazar]

I'm also a slight fan of Dach haha. Thoughts on his upside, projection/floor and skating?

Straight from his guide (you can download it for free with the link in the OP).

I'm warming up on Dach but I think the floor might be a little high here . Same with Knight.

What bugs me the most though is the Kakko and Pettersson comparable. They are nothing alike in my book.

 

[Bender]

Straight from his guide (you can download it for free with the link in the OP).

I'm warming up on Dach but I think the floor might be a little high here . Same with Knight.

What bugs me the most though is the Kakko and Pettersson comparable. They are nothing alike in my book.

Comparable :
In terms of skating style and in the way he controls the play and distributes the puck, he reminds me a lot of a bigger, stronger version of Elias Pettersson. Kakko is more of a natural winger, but I think you can expect a similar type of impact on his new team.

 

[Foxtail]

I like Boldy top 5 , wouldn't mind if he was our pick at 4 and agree Turcotte area and Newhook top 10 , I like him more than Turcotte. Byram at 10, I agree not a big fan of him . Zegras at 15 , I like him much more would just exchange him and Knight but I see where you are coming from if you think Knight is the real deal

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

As always love to see the lists. I guess you'll be quite happy with the Dach/Knight combo that's been rumored a fair bit for the Avs two picks if that is how it turns out

I certainly don't agree with some of the rankings on the list but always love seeing individual lists that are different from the general consensus.

 

[Foxtail]

Comparable :
In terms of skating style and in the way he controls the play and distributes the puck, he reminds me a lot of a bigger, stronger version of Elias Pettersson. Kakko is more of a natural winger, but I think you can expect a similar type of impact on his new team.

I compare Zegras to Petterson but with more grit.

 

[cgf]

I love Boldy's tools, but I'd hate to use a top 5 pick on him. He's just safe to a fault and nowhere near dynamic enough for that high a pick, at least for me...in this class; which has more creative/dynamic wingers (Podkolzin & Caufield) for him to compete with.

Would be happy to snag Boldy later in the top 10 though, and would feel better about spending that kind of pick on him than on the other big body forwards I have in that range; Cozens or Dach.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

I love Boldy's tools, but I'd hate to use a top 5 pick on him. He's just safe to a fault and nowhere near dynamic enough for that high a pick, at least for me...in this class; which has wingers like Podkolzin & Caufield for him to compete with.

Would be happy to snag Boldy later in the top 10 though, and would feel better about spending that kind of pick on him than on the other big body forwards I have in that range; Cozens or Dach.

I'm in the same boat. Would love to trade up to grab him or Pod if they fall to the 10th or lower. I really like Boldy from what I saw this year, the reports that he has already significantly improved his skating coming into this year is good to hear.

 

[cgf]

I'm in the same boat. Would love to trade up to grab him or Pod if they fall to the 10th or lower. I really like Boldy from what I saw this year, the reports that he has already significantly improved his skating coming into this year is good to hear.

I'm not letting myself get any hopes up about trading up for Pod...even if Zegras & Pod has been my wet dream for months; and one I brought to life in our forum mock offseason

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

I'm not letting myself get any hopes up about trading up for Pod...even if Zegras & Pod has been my wet dream for months; and one I brought to life in our forum mock offseason

Haha, there's a bunch of ideal situations for me. Scenario 1 for me is Turcotte and then trading up (or he falls) for Caufield. I could also see the Avs being really sold on the potential of Dach and a guy like Kaliyev. I'd love Turcotte and Boldy/Pod because in a season or two of being together that's a line that could be a nightmare to play against. Turcotte and Pod in particular I think would drive other teams crazy in our own zone, both guys are just so tenacious on the puck. I also like the idea of Zegras and Pod, two guys that I think are relatively raw but have the potential to blend so well.

With that in mind, I'll prepare myself to see the Avs draft Newhook at 4 and then trade the 16th for an old vet that can't play.

 

[cgf]

Zegras & Pod would be so beautiful together. The skill, the speed, the tenacity...stick someone like Bellows next to them to bang & shoot and they would just be devastating in a couple of years

Granted Pod was just born to play Bednar hockey and would be an absurdly good fit with MacK or Landy as his Center as well.

 

[Pokecheque]

Man, I opened up the PDF last night and was all like whaaaaaaat? But I love seeing all the lists, it's obvious there's plenty of room for debate after the top two guys.

Haven't had a chance to read it in detail, will need to do so before Friday obviously.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

Bender, this is awesome. You should definitely be charging for this. I’ll throw you a donation.

I’m on Team Pod and Boldy at 4, but I don't think the Avs are leaning that way at all.

 

[chet1926]

Thanks for the amazing list. Very helpful.

Couple questions why so low on Byram? You say 1st pairing potential, but have him at 10 under a couple of guys like Newhook, Podkolzin, Cozens etc. who probably end up more of 2nd line guys.

Why so high on Dach? One if his big knocks is effort level consistencies. If I'm drafting at 3, I don't think I'd want a guy with effort question marks. Are his laziness concerns overblown?

 

[Avs_19]

Great job as usual.

 

[cgf]

Thanks for the amazing list. Very helpful.

Couple questions why so low on Byram? You say 1st pairing potential, but have him at 10 under a couple of guys like Newhook, Podkolzin, Cozens etc. who probably end up more of 2nd line guys.

Why so high on Dach? One if his big knocks is effort level consistencies. If I'm drafting at 3, I don't think I'd want a guy with effort question marks. Are his laziness concerns overblown?

Wut?

 

[chet1926]

Wut?

Logically speaking. There are 31 teams in the NHL which mean there are 93 available 1st line spots around the league.

Obviously who plays as a first line player constantly fluctuates as players decline, retire, get injured and aren't the same etc. Not to mention that just because you play on the first line for one team doesn't mean you are of that caliber. Just as some teams have 2nd line players that would be 1st line caliber on most teams. So we'll call it approximately 70-80 top line caliber players in the league.

Any given draft you probably will have 5-12 true top line talents. They aren't always going to be the guys picked top 20. See players like Kucherov or Gaudreau. For example the 2013 draft IMO only has 3 true 1st line guys MacK, Barkov and Monahan. A bunch of tweeners like Lindholm, Drouin, Domi etc. There was also a top pairing dman in Jones.

So statistically speaking most of the guys drafted are probably more likely to end up 2nd line caliber guys or lower than top line guys. It's tough to predict outside of the can't miss guys who will hit that top end skill and who won't.

 

[cgf]

Logically speaking. There are 31 teams in the NHL which mean there are 93 available 1st line spots around the league.

Obviously who plays as a first line player constantly fluctuates as players decline, retire, get injured and aren't the same etc. Not to mention that just because you play on the first line for one team doesn't mean you are of that caliber. Just as some teams have 2nd line players that would be 1st line caliber on most teams. So we'll call it approximately 70-80 top line caliber players in the league.

Any given draft you probably will have 5-12 true top line talents. They aren't always going to be the guys picked top 20. See players like Kucherov or Gaudreau. For example the 2013 draft IMO only has 3 true 1st line guys MacK, Barkov and Monahan. A bunch of tweeners like Lindholm, Drouin, Domi etc. There was also a top pairing dman in Jones.

So statistically speaking most of the guys drafted are probably more likely to end up 2nd line caliber guys or lower than top line guys. It's tough to predict outside of the can't miss guys who will hit that top end skill and who won't.

So wouldn't Byram be less likely to become a 1st pairing guy because he's fighting for 1 of 62 spots rather than 1 of 93?

 

[chet1926]

So wouldn't Byram be less likely to become a 1st pairing guy because he's fighting for 1 of 62 spots rather than 1 of 93?

Yes it's more unlikely he becomes a 1st pairing guy. But guys who are viewed as potential top pairing guys typically are viewed higher than those who are 1st/2nd like tweeners types. Hence my question of why did he have Byram who he said had first pairing potential, below guys that are more likely than not going to be 50-65pts at best forwards.

Does he see all the guys mentioned above Byram as 65+ points guys and Byram more a 2nd pairing guy. I was just looking for some feel as to why he went so low on a guy most people feel has first pairing potential.

 

[Foxtail]

Yes it's more unlikely he becomes a 1st pairing guy. But guys who are viewed as potential top pairing guys typically are viewed higher than those who are 1st/2nd like tweeners types. Hence my question of why did he have Byram who he said had first pairing potential, below guys that are more likely than not going to be 50-65pts at best forwards.

Does he see all the guys mentioned above Byram as 65+ points guys and Byram more a 2nd pairing guy. I was just looking for some feel as to why he went so low on a guy most people feel has first pairing potential.

1st pairing potential is different from #1D though which are really 2D. I myself have reservations about Byram becoming a #1 stud D therefore have him outside the top 5 as well. Just opinions and projections on 18 year old kids.