Prospect Info: Ben Baumgartner (#161 pick - 2020 draft)

[swiiscompos]

Hilarious that just prior to 3:51, there was a goal by Brian Gibbons.

That's my home team, maybe I should go to next game against Davos, I actually hadn't even realized Gibbons was playing here!

 

[Blackjack]

There was actually a short Scouching segment on Baumgartner I just found.

 

[glenwo2]

What is iHDSAT/60? (Pause at 2:33 of the vid, @StevenToddIves )

'Cause the gap with him and someone like Seth Jarvis is considerable.

 

[Blackjack]

What is iHDSAT/60? (Pause at 2:33 of the vid, @StevenToddIves )

'Cause the gap with him and someone like Seth Jarvis is considerable.

I think it's high danger shot attempts taken per 60 minutes. Not sure if it makes sense to compare a double overager to in Europe to a CHL 18 year old, but Will Scouch was certainly impressed by it.

 

[glenwo2]

I think it's high danger shot attempts taken per 60 minutes. Not sure if it makes sense to compare a double overager to in Europe to a CHL 18 year old, but Will Scouch was certainly impressed by it.

Thanks but what does the God of Draft Reviews ( @StevenToddIves ) think?

 

[VoidCreature]

That's a nice shot.

 

[GameSeven]

Goal from his last game at around 3:51

Nico's brother sighting just after the goal.

 

[swiiscompos]

Baumgartner just scored a beauty of a goal for HC Davos. He stole the puck in the offensive zone, made the defenders look like amateurs, and sniped the goalie on the first post. If someone can find a video that works internationally please post it!

 

[Lou is God]

Baumgartner just scored a beauty of a goal for HC Davos. He stole the puck in the offensive zone, made the defenders look like amateurs, and sniped the goalie on the first post. If someone can find a video that works internationally please post it!

Joe Thornton had an assist on the goal.

 

[swiiscompos]

Here is the video, first seconds. We’re going just missing his poke check.
Thornton has the assist, but he was lucky to barely graze the puck, Ben really did it all.

 

[Lou is God]

Here is the video, first seconds. We’re going just missing his poke check.
Thornton has the assist, but he was lucky to barely graze the puck, Ben really did it all.

I don't think he glazed it all unless he touched the puck before the video started, they're pretty charitable.

 

[swiiscompos]

I don't think he glazed it all unless he touched the puck before the video started, they're pretty charitable.

I think Thornton makes contact with the puck just before the video starts, when Baumgartner makes the poke check. I have a better video but it’s geo-locked. Anyway, looks like Ben is the young rising star in Davos, I will try to go watch them next time they play in Lausanne.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Thanks but what does the God of Draft Reviews ( @StevenToddIves ) think?

Will Scouch is very good at what he does. But he is also more influenced by analytics than I am. I pay attention to any outlying statistic which could indicate future success, but I am also skeptical of using the same stat to compare a 20 year old double-overager playing sheltered offensive minutes in Switzerland against a teenager playing 20+ minutes per game in the CHL.

Jesper Bratt -- in his draft year -- scored 17 points in Allsvenskan, essentially a Swedish B-league with more experienced players but far less talent than the CHL or USHL. All of his quantifiable statistics were okay -- nothing remarkable, but nothing alarming, either. The reason he was such a great pick was not discernible by looking at his numbers so much as you could watch him and see that he was a terrific skater, passer and puck-handler with an underrated shot and complete game.

When Bratt was drafted, he was not the guy many draft writers were talking about as the steal of the 2016 6th round. No, that was was Edmonton pick Aapeli Rasanen, who scored 38 points in 50 points for Tappara in Finnish junior league, after shining with 9 points in 7 games for Finland in the WJC. Rasanen also had very good analytic stats and was seen as a big-time sleeper for the 2016 draft.

The reason why Bratt was the better 6th round pick has nothing to do with the statistics or analytics. The fact is, was and will remain that Bratt is a superior skater, passer, puck-handler and shooter to Rasanen. He's better because he's better. It's that simple.

The reason I'd be wary of the Baumgartner pick is simply because two guys drafted in the next 15 picks -- Evgeni Oksentyuk and Veeti Miettinen -- are the same size, but they're better passers, puck-handlers and shooters, and they're both younger. Those are two kids who have dynamic tools -- Oksentyuk his hands and compete level, Miettinen his shooting and overall offensive awareness. Baumgartner is a good player for his age with no discernible weaknesses outside of his size, but he also lacks a standout tool. I am personally of the belief that -- in order to find late-round draft gems -- a key is to focus on players with standout tools who just need to improve other aspects of their overall games in order to make it in the NHL. Was Baumgartner a bad pick? I mean, no -- there are no bad picks in the 6th round. I just don't believe in using the NHL Draft to fill holes in your AHL roster. But maybe Baumgartner will develop some potential which went heretofore unnoticed by the 620 or so teams who have passed him over in the past three drafts and make it to the show. He's certainly got some puck skills, skates well and plays with a nice compete level. I'll be rooting for him alongside the rest of Devils fans.

 

[Nubmer6]

Baumgartner just scored a beauty of a goal for HC Davos. He stole the puck in the offensive zone, made the defenders look like amateurs, and sniped the goalie on the first post. If someone can find a video that works internationally please post it!

For some reason, the name Baumgartner make me think of a big, burly, pugilisti defenseman.

 

[glenwo2]

Will Scouch is very good at what he does. But he is also more influenced by analytics than I am. I pay attention to any outlying statistic which could indicate future success, but I am also skeptical of using the same stat to compare a 20 year old double-overager playing sheltered offensive minutes in Switzerland against a teenager playing 20+ minutes per game in the CHL.

Jesper Bratt -- in his draft year -- scored 17 points in Allsvenskan, essentially a Swedish B-league which more experienced players but far less talent than the CHL or USHL. All of his quantifiable statistics were okay -- nothing remarkable, but nothing alarming, either. The reason he was such a great pick was not discernible by looking at his numbers so much as you could watch him and see that he was a terrific skater, passer and puck-handler with an underrated shot and complete game.

When Bratt was drafted, he was not the guy many draft writers were talking about as the steal of the 2016 6th round. No, that was was Edmonton pick Aapeli Rasanen, who scored 38 points in 50 points for Tappara in Finnish junior league, after shining with 9 points in 7 games for Finland in the WJC. Rasanen also had very good analytic stats and was seen as a big-time sleeper for the 2016 draft.

The reason why Bratt was the better 6th round pick has nothing to do with the statistics or analytics. The fact is, was and will remain that Bratt is a superior skater, passer, puck-handler and shooter to Rasanen. He's better because he's better. It's that simple.

The reason I'd be wary of the Baumgartner pick is simply because two guys drafted in the next 15 picks -- Evgeni Oksentyuk and Veeti Miettinen -- are the same size, but they're better passers, puck-handlers and shooters, and they're both younger. Those are two kids who have dynamic tools -- Oksentyuk his hands and compete level, Miettinen his shooting and overall offensive awareness. Baumgartner is a good player for his age with no discernible weaknesses outside of his size, but he also lacks a standout tool. I am personally of the belief that -- in order to find late-round draft gems -- a key is to focus on players with standout tools who just need to improve other aspects of their overall games in order to make it in the NHL. Was Baumgartner a bad pick? I mean, no -- there are no bad picks in the 6th round. I just don't believe in using the NHL Draft to fill holes in your AHL roster. But maybe Baumgartner will develop some potential which went heretofore unnoticed by the 620 or so teams who have passed him over in the past three drafts and make it to the show. He's certainly got some puck skills, skates well and plays with a nice compete level. I'll be rooting for him alongside the rest of Devils fans.

So in essence, you're saying :

Baumgartner is a solid pick but he'll need more work on his overall game

and

Devils were damn lucky to find Jesper Bratt

 

[StevenToddIves]

So in essence, you're saying :

Baumgartner is a solid pick but he'll need more work on his overall game

and

Devils were damn lucky to find Jesper Bratt

No, more like:

1) Late round draft steals are not found by targeting players with good analytic numbers, because the numbers could be skewed due to a litany of variables. Late round steals are more often found by targeting players with standout physical tools (Jesper Bratt, Connor Garland) and intangibles (John Marino, Ethan Bear) who are overlooked due to correctible flaws (ie: poor first step, trying to do too much on a poor team, positioning) or myths (ie: "player is too small for NHL" and the utterly ridiculous "defenseman who does not score enough").

2) The Devils may have drafted Baumgartner because of some standout analytic statistics. To me, he is a fine pick because his tool kit is decent and he has a nice motor, but he is not the quality of recent Devils late round (5th-7th rounds) picks because he lacks a standout physical tool (ie: Bratt, Gritsyuk) or standout intangibles (ie: Talvitie, Moynihan) and is not the type of player for whom the improvement of a simple correctible flaw could impel his entire skill-set to take off (ie: Pasic, Tyce Thompson).

3) This does not mean the Baumgartner pick was a bad pick. There are no bad picks in the 6th round. But there certainly are good picks in the 6th round and a couple of them may have been taken soon afterwards.

Because as cute as we can get with the analytic numbers, none of them have proven as reliable as "Veeti Miettinen scored 42 goals in 52 games". Because, sure the Finnish juniors are not as strong as the Swiss men's league where Baumgartner played, but Miettinen is two years younger and quite frankly I'm impressed if someone scores 42 goals in 52 games in a beer league at Chelsea Piers. Or how about: "Evgeni Oksentyuk had 33 goals and 45 assists in 53 games with Flint of the OHL". Though Oksentyuk is also -- like Baumgartner -- an undersized overager (though Oksentyuk is one year younger), he's got unbelievable hands and really dominated in his first season in North America. To me, these would have been good picks.

We can talk all day about "the percentage of high-danger scoring chances per game" Baumgartner created as a 20 year old in the Swiss league, but the fact is that this is a statistic which, we hope, will lead to point production at higher levels. But no statistic has correlated so well with "point production at higher levels" as much as "point production at lower levels" -- so why are we ignoring this for a kid coming off a draft+2 season of 7 goals and 2o assists in 37 games? The year before, in Swiss juniors (a lower level than Swedish juniors), Baumgartner had 26 points in 23 games.

Can Benjamin Baumgartner make the NHL? Of course he can. And I sure hope he does. Like I said, he has a nice motor and plays a passionate 200-foot game with some degree of skill. But with every pick you must weigh highest possible reward against lowest possible risk, and Baumgartner may not have been the best possible answer in either respect.

Yes, the Devils were lucky that Jesper Bratt fell to the 6th round in 2016. But it was also a great pick which we may not have made were we weighing the analytics over old-school scouting methods which indicated that -- despite posting so-so numbers in a men's league as a teenager -- Bratt was a terrific skater with elite or near elite hands, vision, and offensive instincts. The biggest knocks against him were his size -- which is ridiculous -- and his 200-foot play/physicality -- which is also ridiculous, considering he was an offense-first teenager playing in a men's league.

Last year, the Devils were lucky that a player with off-the-charts intangibles like Patrick Moynihan fell to the 6th round, and this year as an NCAA freshman he clearly out-performed NCAA freshman drafted in the 2nd/3rd rounds like Robert Mastrosimone, John Farinacci and Quinn Olson. Heck, he was superior to Matthew Boldy, who was drafted #12 overall! Will Moynihan wind up better than Boldy? It's highly unlikely -- Boldy's tool kit is ridiculous. But will Moynihan turn out better than Mastrosimone, Farniacci and Olson? Right now, it sure looks like it -- and that would make him one whale of a 6th round pick!

My criticisms concerning Baumgartner are ultimately not about Baumgartner at all, it's about getting away from what the Devils did to succeed in the late rounds between 2016-19. In the end, I wish Baumgartner the best and will root for him every step of the way. I hope he proves all of my doubts wrong and succeeds past anyone's expectations.

 

[Garl]

Baumgartner is pretty much already a really good player in NLA. Oksentyuk is struggling in Belarus league. Oksentyuk would be lucky if he develops in next 2 years and becomes Baumgartner level player.

 

[Guttersniped]

Baumgartner is pretty much already a really good player in NLA. Oksentyuk is struggling in Belarus league. Oksentyuk would be lucky if he develops in next 2 years and becomes Baumgartner level player.

I don’t know much about the other player but BB almost feels like a FA signing. I assume they feel he could be a useful player quickly since he’s D+2, at least you know what you’re working with and can plug him in.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Has anyone got a chance to check out his game this year? He is scoring at a lower rate than last year. Has his game dropped off or is he getting unlucky.

Edit: His contract is up in April, I think he may come and finish the season in Binghamton.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Has anyone got a chance to check out his game this year? He is scoring at a lower rate than last year. Has his game dropped off or is he getting unlucky.

Edit: His contract is up in April, I think he may come and finish the season in Binghamton.

To be honest, I have yet to see any film footage of Baumgartner which would indicate to me that he is a legitimate NHL prospect. He's decent tools-wise across the board and I'd say he's an intelligent player, but there is not a singular standout tool or intangible which would lead me to project him as more than an AHL/ECHL depth guy.

 

[RyGuy]

Here is the video, first seconds. We’re going just missing his poke check.
Thornton has the assist, but he was lucky to barely graze the puck, Ben really did it all.

That was a......baum of a shot.

 

[glenwo2]

That was a......baum of a shot.

I'll allow it.

 

[Guttersniped]

To be honest, I have yet to see any film footage of Baumgartner which would indicate to me that he is a legitimate NHL prospect. He's decent tools-wise across the board and I'd say he's an intelligent player, but there is not a singular standout tool or intangible which would lead me to project him as more than an AHL/ECHL depth guy.

He’ll spend a year in the AHL if signs a two ELC which would likely have a European Assignment Clause in 2nd year. The AHL/ECHL longterm is a stretch when he can stay home is Switzerland and play there.

His current numbers in Davos are disappointing, particularly his goal scoring. I kind of doubt they sign next off-season, there’s a lot prospects and a limited number of contracts and spots. They might give him another another year in the Swiss league. And Fitz has until June 1, 2022 to sign him.

 

[Blackjack]

He’ll spend a year in the AHL if signs a two ELC which would likely have a European Assignment Clause in 2nd year. The AHL/ECHL longterm is a stretch when he can stay home is Switzerland and play there.

His current numbers in Davos are disappointing, particularly his goal scoring. I kind of doubt they sign next off-season, there’s a lot prospects and a limited number of contracts and spots. They might give him another another year in the Swiss league. And Fitz has until June 1, 2022 to sign him.

I think I heard we could have signed him as an undrafted free agent in a few more months? Kind of weird when you also consider that we traded our 7th round pick to Arizona for... a 7th rounder next year. Like, we just passed on the pick. Were Fitz and co. already out of ideas when they got to 161?

 

[Triumph]

I think I heard we could have signed him as an undrafted free agent in a few more months? Kind of weird when you also consider that we traded our 7th round pick to Arizona for... a 7th rounder next year. Like, we just passed on the pick. Were Fitz and co. already out of ideas when they got to 161?

He could've been signed as a UDFA, but importantly he isn't signed by the Devils now - this narrative also assumes that no one else was going to draft him.

Trading 7th round picks for future 7ths is not uncommon - the Kings did it with the Devils in 2013. In the 2016 draft, Winnipeg and Boston both dealt their 7th round picks for a 7th rounder the next year. Given the state of the Devils' reserve list and the fact that they had made 39 selections in the previous 4 drafts including 2020, if they didn't like anyone in the 7th round, makes sense to get a pick back there (although, as I've said elsewhere, I wouldn't really be wanting a 2021 draft pick anywhere, given how the hockey season has unfolded).