Speculation: Bednar's future

CobraAcesS

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I agree that 2 noticable issues are secondary scoring and goaltending, while secondary scoring issue is real, it's not mental issue, the team just doesn't have it, goaltending and defense is more of confidence and not believing at each other issue right now. There are defensive breakdowns because there is extra pressure on defense not to make mistakes knowing that the goalies have been bad and vice versa. Goalies dont have confidence knowing that d isnt playing well. A lot of times when the team is winning, then they look bad when they're losing

Varly looks like a robot, and I'm not really sure hes looked himself all year. My theory is it is related to his surgery, and I'm basing that off of collective comments from goalies like Lou who have talked about recovery and pain while playing the year after the surgery.

Grubs I don't know what to think of. There is nothing wrong with him, and hes never looked great here. In the start we just out scored his mistakes.

So while yeah it might be mental now for them I don't think it started out that way. They've gotten themselves into the entire teams heads though.
 

the_fan

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Varly looks like a robot, and I'm not really sure hes looked himself all year. My theory is it is related to his surgery, and I'm basing that off of collective comments from goalies like Lou who have talked about recovery and pain while playing the year after the surgery.

Grubs I don't know what to think of. There is nothing wrong with him, and hes never looked great here. In the start we just out scored his mistakes.

So while yeah it might be mental now for them I don't think it started out that way. They've gotten themselves into the entire teams heads though.
I also think Varly has issues with health, and all those injuries have messed up his confidence. Grubauer is probably not used to playing on a team that gives up so many grade a scoring chances like the Avs do compared to when he played in Washington.
 

CobraAcesS

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I also think Varly has issues with health, and all those injuries have messed up his confidence. Grubauer is probably not used to playing on a team that gives up so many grade a scoring chances like the Avs do compared to when he played in Washington.

Someone made the point though, that while Trotz is a defensive coach Washington wasn't good defensively last year. I'm sure there is some relevance to that though. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle versus systems and talent.

Also for the record I don't think we're giving up any more grade A chances than average. I'm not a stats person but looking at the heat maps after games backs up that thought. The other teams goalie makes plenty of stops on the same types of chances.
 

ArWKo

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Trotz's system seems to have always had his team playing with close to top 10 team sv% season after season.

Look at NYI with him this season sporting the 4th best team save% in the league.

I think his system certainly helps his goalies out, although he's also had some great goalies in his tenures as HC in Nashville and Washington.
 
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Bill Peckerskull

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It's simple for me, Varly appears to be wearing down, and probably isn't ever going to be the guy we all loved 3 years ago again. He may show flashes of it from time to time, but won't consistently be that guy anymore. If you can get a good offer for him by the deadline, I'd trade him.

Gru isn't near as good as everyone made him out to be. He appears to be a product of the system in D.C., and probably can't be counted on as the #1 at this point in time.

IMO, the Avs should try Francouz and see what they have before he gets pissed and leaves this summer, or make a deal for another goalie, like Bob or Howard. I wouldn't trade for Quick. He appears to be trending in the same direction as Varly.
 
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the_fan

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Someone made the point though, that while Trotz is a defensive coach Washington wasn't good defensively last year. I'm sure there is some relevance to that though. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle versus systems and talent.

Also for the record I don't think we're giving up any more grade A chances than average. I'm not a stats person but looking at the heat maps after games backs up that thought. The other teams goalie makes plenty of stops on the same types of chances.
Yeah I was just speculating as far what's wrong with Grubauer thinking maybe it's a team system thing, but maybe he's just simply isn't a starting goalie, but then again he hasn't been good as a back up either so far for the Avs, so like you, I have no idea what to think with Gru
 
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AllAboutAvs

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I wanted to say, Bednar reminds me much more of Sacco than of Roy. An advanced version of Sacco perhaps but the differences aren't that great. When I look at their coaching records with the Avs (Bednar: 86-104-21 = 0,91P/G, Sacco: 130-134-30 = 0,99P/G) and consider what kind of players both coaches (have) had to work with I'm not even sure Bednar is the advanced version.
But yeah, let's blame the goalies.
If you forget his first season with the Avs Bednar is 64-38-17. The main reason for me why we need to just forget about that 48-pt season when evaluating Bednar is that it was just a very bad team personnel-wise. What was it? More than half the team was not even in the NHL the year after? Something like that. Some coaches would have done better than him with that roster but that much better IMO.

Bednar is not perfect and he needs to be accountable as well but he is not the main issue in this current slide. Not even close.
 

CobraAcesS

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Yeah I was just speculating as far what's wrong with Grubauer thinking maybe it's a team system thing, but maybe he's just simply isn't a starting goalie, but then again he hasn't been good as a back up either so far for the Avs, so like you, I have no idea what to think with Gru

Yeah I don't want to throw him out with the bath water just yet, but f*** all does he piss me off when watching him right now.
 
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the_fan

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IMO this team needs a coach like Gallant. That's a type of coach that can get the most out of a roster like the Avs have.
 

Ivan13

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Someone made the point though, that while Trotz is a defensive coach Washington wasn't good defensively last year. I'm sure there is some relevance to that though. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle versus systems and talent.

Also for the record I don't think we're giving up any more grade A chances than average. I'm not a stats person but looking at the heat maps after games backs up that thought. The other teams goalie makes plenty of stops on the same types of chances.
They were pretty bad defensively, but it doesn’t fit the narrative, so ...

The goalies are definetly to blame, we aren’t play the soundest games defensively, but you gotta stop some of those shots. They simply aren’t allowing the guys in front to make a single mistke without it ending up in the net.
 
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Pokecheque

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Henchy and I have gone back and forth on the Roy/Bednar thing so I won't rehash that apart from saying that I completely disagree with the notion that Varly thrived under Roy because the system fit him better. I just don't think Varly is playing very well, and nowhere near his Vezina-caliber form back in 2013-14. Simple as that.

One thing I am getting a little alarmed of is that the team is sitting back WAY too much, even when they were going great guns before the swoon in December/January. The PK is especially guilty of this. Just not nearly enough aggressive play, and an over-reliance on shot-blocking, which was never a central tenet of Bednar's system. Their neutral zone play during this stretch has been abysmal before they do the "Oh shit! We're down by a few goals! Better start playing" thing and begin pressing harder. Otherwise they have no problem just giving the opposition plenty of room to maneuver and enter the zone with speed.
 

CobraAcesS

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Henchy and I have gone back and forth on the Roy/Bednar thing so I won't rehash that apart from saying that I completely disagree with the notion that Varly thrived under Roy because the system fit him better. I just don't think Varly is playing very well, and nowhere near his Vezina-caliber form back in 2013-14. Simple as that.

One thing I am getting a little alarmed of is that the team is sitting back WAY too much, even when they were going great guns before the swoon in December/January. The PK is especially guilty of this. Just not nearly enough aggressive play, and an over-reliance on shot-blocking, which was never a central tenet of Bednar's system. Their neutral zone play during this stretch has been abysmal before they do the "Oh ****! We're down by a few goals! Better start playing" thing and begin pressing harder. Otherwise they have no problem just giving the opposition plenty of room to maneuver and enter the zone with speed.

Well our PP can't even gain the zone lately lol. I have been noticing that they give up our blue line really f***ing easily at 5v5. It is maddening actually.
 
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Foppa2118

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The problems with this team are much more than goaltending. It's not even the biggest problem right now. Varly has looked fine for the most part since coming back from injury, especially the last two games where he made a bunch of good saves and didn't give up any bad goals. He's playing like 2014-15 Varly, where he's just making good saves but he's not being superman and saving all the grade A chances.

The biggest problem with this team right now are the mental mistakes. They'll play great defensively for 2 periods and then just stop playing for 2-3 minutes and make a bunch of unnecessary turnovers and defensive mistakes and let in 2-3 goals.

For a while they were having a bunch of poor starts in a row too. Just playing like they wanted to get to the intermission 0-0, not playing to win.

The special teams are struggling too, especially the PK. It needs to be better pure and simple. The PP has been a driving force in winning games as well, but the PK has been killing their chances at staying in games.

Combine that with the problems that lie on the players shoulders, like Cole and Barrie playing terrible defensively lately. Barberio and Nemeth too, but that's not a big surprise. Guys like Compher, Kerfoot, and Nieto going into a slump and not doing a whole lot out there, though Compher's been a little better lately. Jost still not clicking in the NHL.

The players playing poorly is on the players, but the slow starts, the special teams, and the mental mistakes are things that are part of the job description of coaches to weed out. All these problems were problems when the goaltending was struggling in December too.

That's where Bednar is coming up short. He needs to wake them up in some fashion and stop the preventable mistakes, poor starts, and improve the special teams with better tactics. I think he's capable of getting them out of this, but his leash is starting to get short.
 
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Bender

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Every post game interview with Bednar sounds like he just popped a xanax and slammed a wine cooler.

Lol! I've always maintained that I don't know if Bob and Doug McKenzie have a long lost brother but man does his voice sound like those guys...it's eerie!

I know i'm one of the very few , but Coach Q is my guy. There's an History with him and the Avs , since he was the avs HC a few seasons ago and won the SC with the avs in 96. How many rookie coach did the avs got in a row now ? I know you said the Avs are not willing to pay top dollars for a coach , but i think it's time to bring someone with experience behind the bench.

Agreed. At some point, the Avs are going to have to bite the bullet and pay up for an experienced, successful head coach and pay the going rate. They've saved a ton of money over the years while they've been building this thing but it's going to have to happen at some point.

Bednar has brought them along for the past 2.5 years but it's going to be time either very soon or at the end of the season. I doubt Sakic is going to want a lame-duck coach starting next year, so he'd be looking at needing to extend him anyhow. It's either at the All-Star break or at the end of the year, imo.

For those of us frustrated Bednar not playing Sodaberg as a second line center, Q is going to be more of the same. He put Brad May on the first line to fire pucks two feet wide of an open net, had Brisebois killing penalties, and even let Wyatt Smith and Tyler Arnason on the ice.

...and yet that team made the playoffs! Q's not perfect and sure some of his decisions are sometimes difficult to understand but he always seems to know how to get players to perform to the best of their abilities. I'd be on board with that.
 

dahrougem2

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The problems with this team are much more than goaltending. It's not even the biggest problem right now. Varly has looked fine for the most part since coming back from injury, especially the last two games where he made a bunch of good saves and didn't give up any bad goals. He's playing like 2014-15 Varly, where he's just making good saves but he's not being superman and saving all the grade A chances.
.
I can't stress how much I disagree with this. Semyon Varlamov and Philipp Grubauer have been our two biggest problems since the turn of December.
 

Foppa2118

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I can't stress how much I disagree with this. Semyon Varlamov and Philipp Grubauer have been our two biggest problems since the turn of December.

To be fair you never answered how goals 2 and 4 last game were bad goals. It was a great deflection on the 2nd goal and a bounce off the end boards while Varly was screened right to Duchene for the 4th. Varly even had his pad there in time but Duchene chipped it over his pad.

GDT: - Game 47: Avs @ Sens | 5 PM MT | January 16, 2019 | Ottawa Rising

Goaltending was the big problem in December. Along with the poor play, bad turnovers, mental lapses, and poor starts. The last few games since Varly returned from injury, goaltending has not been the problem, but the they're still making bad turnovers, and unnecessary mental mistakes.
 
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AllAboutAvs

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To be fair you never answered how goals 2 and 4 last game were bad goals. It was a great deflection on the 2nd goal and a bounce off the end boards while Varly was screened right to Duchene for the 4th. Varly even had his pad there in time but Duchene chipped it over his pad.

GDT: - Game 47: Avs @ Sens | 5 PM MT | January 16, 2019 | Ottawa Rising

Goaltending was the big problem in December. Along with the poor play, bad turnovers, mental lapses, and poor starts. The last few games since Varly returned from injury, goaltending has not been the problem, but the they're still making bad turnovers, and unnecessary mental mistakes.
Disagree about goaltending being better lately. The last 5 games SV% were:
.700
.733
.933
.850
.867

Certainly nothing to write home about. Except for the Habs game pretty bad if you ask me.
 

Foppa2118

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Disagree about goaltending being better lately. The last 5 games SV% were:
.700
.733
.933
.850
.867

Certainly nothing to write home about. Except for the Habs game pretty bad if you ask me.

There wasn't a .700 game. The LA game you're referring to was an .833

The reason the save percentages are bad recently is because they keep playing well defensively for all but like five minutes of games, but in those five minutes they make a ton of errors and give up multiple goals. This has been what I'm referring to that the coaching staff needs to correct.

You can't just look at numbers to tell the story, you have to see what led to the goals. Where the breakdowns happened, how good the scoring chances were, and how the goals went in.

Also, I'm only referring to the last few games where Varlamov has been much better and made a bunch of really good saves. The LA game was back in December when he was struggling and probably playing hurt for a least that LA game. The CGY game was his first back where he was rusty and had a poor game.

The Habs game Varly let in one stoppable shot. It hit a foot out at the point but it was far enough out where he could have saved it.

After that the goaltending has been fine the last two games, none of the goals were bad. They were all screens, deflections, terrible turnovers and bad coverage, or perfect shots.

What has been consistent from December all the way until now is these mental lapses in games where they make bad turnovers, bad passes, and have just really poor coverage. Especially the multiple times recently where defenseman just stop covering their man and leave them wide open.
 
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AllAboutAvs

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There wasn't a .700 game. The LA game you're referring to was an .833

The reason the save percentages are bad recently is because they keep playing well defensively for all but like five minutes of games, but in those five minutes they make a ton of errors and give up multiple goals. This has been what I'm referring to that the coaching staff needs to correct.

You can't just look at numbers to tell the story, you have to see what led to the goals. Where the breakdowns happened, how good the scoring chances were, and how the goals went in.

Also, I'm only referring to the last few games where Varlamov has been much better and made a bunch of really good saves. The LA game was back in December when he was struggling and probably playing hurt for a least that LA game. The CGY game was his first back where he was rusty and had a poor game.

The Habs game Varly let in one stoppable shot. It hit a foot out at the point but it was far enough out where he could have saved it.

After that the goaltending has been fine the last two games, none of the goals were bad. They were all screens, deflections, terrible turnovers and bad coverage, or perfect shots.

What has been consistent from December all the way until now is these mental lapses in games where they make bad turnovers, bad passes, and have just really poor coverage. Especially the multiple times recently where defenseman just stop covering their man and leave them wide open.
As I said these SV% were the last 5 games. The .700 SV% was against the Jets by Gru. You never said just Varly. You said the goaltending has been better lately so I went back 5 games.

I agree that some goals were deflections and some were due to breakdowns but other were weaker goals. Goalies can't do too much against deflections but they are supposed to bail out the other guys sometimes. That hasn't happened a lot since the beginning of Dec and lately as well. They have better sequences but then it goes down the toilet by the end of the game. They are not making the timely saves. The goals they let in are deflating.

The Avs' play in their own zone is also a problem as you said but when they make a mistake it usually end up in the net. That's very deflating for a team. I am actually quite impressed with the team how they respond to being down so much although being down sometimes is their own doing. Last game was such a game. It was the skaters' fault they were behind 3 goals. They had no effort. However sometimes in these kind of games the goalie needs to win you a few. That is not happening anymore.
 

Foppa2118

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As I said these SV% were the last 5 games. The .700 SV% was against the Jets by Gru. You never said just Varly. You said the goaltending has been better lately so I went back 5 games.

I agree that some goals were deflections and some were due to breakdowns but other were weaker goals. Goalies can't do too much against deflections but they are supposed to bail out the other guys sometimes. That hasn't happened a lot since the beginning of Dec and lately as well. They have better sequences but then it goes down the toilet by the end of the game. They are not making the timely saves. The goals they let in are deflating.

The Avs' play in their own zone is also a problem as you said but when they make a mistake it usually end up in the net. That's very deflating for a team. I am actually quite impressed with the team how they respond to being down so much although being down sometimes is their own doing. Last game was such a game. It was the skaters' fault they were behind 3 goals. They had no effort. However sometimes in these kind of games the goalie needs to win you a few. That is not happening anymore.

I see. I agree, especially during December and up until the last few games. I think Varly made a bunch of good saves the last couple games though. The kind of saves to bail his team out like you're referring to.

The last few games remind me of the 2014-15 season. The team making mistakes, Varlamov making some really good saves, but not standing on his head all game. I don't blame the goaltenders in these kind of games. Great saves all game would make them a hero, but not being a hero doesn't mean they're the problem.
 
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Pokecheque

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I'm almost at the point where I really don't think Bednar's The Guy to take this team to the next level. Despite the fact that it's not really his fault the goaltending has completely abandoned this team, there are some fundamental and obvious flaws with this club that are simply not getting fixed.

THAT SAID...it's useless to fire him if all they're going to do is promote from within or find another unknown. They need to go big with their next hire, and actually pay what it takes to bring in a top-level coach, or at the very least, a top-tier candidate.
 

The Kingslayer

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I'm almost at the point where I really don't think Bednar's The Guy to take this team to the next level. Despite the fact that it's not really his fault the goaltending has completely abandoned this team, there are some fundamental and obvious flaws with this club that are simply not getting fixed.

THAT SAID...it's useless to fire him if all they're going to do is promote from within or find another unknown. They need to go big with their next hire, and actually pay what it takes to bring in a top-level coach, or at the very least, a top-tier candidate.

Its gonna be Todd Mclellan if they fire Jared.
 

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