Speculation: Bednar's future

[Bill Peckerskull]

IDK , but having one rookie coach behind the bench after another , could work but it's a gamble.
Since Coach Q left the Avs in 2008 , they only had rookie coachs : Tony Granato, Joe Sacco, Patrick Roy and now Bednar.

It past Coach Q's tenure too. Granato was hired as HC before Q came back to the Avs as HC, and then followed him after Q quit. Hartley was a rookie coach, so was Marc Crawford. Since 1994/95 the Avs/Nordics have hired exactly 1 HC that had prior HCing experience in the NHL, Quenneville (It's 2 if you really want to count Granato's 2nd stint as HC)

 

[CobraAcesS]

They need to do SOMETHING to get some stability and reliability in the lineup beyond the top line. Even a halfway-decent defensive forward or grinder would be a welcome addition. They're seriously underestimating how much losing Kamenev really affected things. Right now they just keep rotating the same damned players around over and over and hope to hell something sticks. It hasn't worked for nearly two months now.

I feel a lot of internal anger and frustration over this entire situation.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I am not ready to give up on Bednar yet.

 

[Foppa2118]

The Q dream is beginning to sound like the Radulov dream of years past lol. I could see Todd Mclellan being the next coach before Q in all honesty.

Not saying I want Bednar fired, but I think McLellan is a better coach than he's given credit for. Kind of like Trotz before he won the Cup.

I think the Sharks had some team makeup and dressing room issues when he was in SJ, and the Oilers as usual we're a poorly built mess.

I could definitely see him being a stylistic fit for the Avs and on their next shortlist. With the Cup window starting to open, I think the Avs will forgo their usual rookie NHL coach for a more experienced one the next go around.

 

[Hasbro]

Although Coach Q is not exactly an outsider, his ties to Colorado run deep. I am not sure that I would advocate for him as a hire though.

For those of us frustrated Bednar not playing Sodaberg as a second line center, Q is going to be more of the same. He put Brad May on the first line to fire pucks two feet wide of an open net, had Brisebois killing penalties, and even let Wyatt Smith and Tyler Arnason on the ice.

 

[The Kingslayer]

For those of us frustrated Bednar not playing Sodaberg as a second line center, Q is going to be more of the same. He put Brad May on the first line to fire pucks two feet wide of an open net, had Brisebois killing penalties, and even let Wyatt Smith and Tyler Arnason on the ice.

Put Ryan Smyth behind the net on the PP. Havent forgave him for that one.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Not saying I want Bednar fired, but I think McLellan is a better coach than he's given credit for. Kind of like Trotz before he won the Cup.

I think the Sharks had some team makeup and dressing room issues when he was in SJ, and the Oilers as usual we're a poorly built mess.

I could definitely see him being a stylistic fit for the Avs and on their next shortlist. With the Cup window starting to open, I think the Avs will forgo their usual rookie NHL coach for a more experienced one the next go around.

That is an interesting name that I've always had time for. Didn't he coach the NA squad? If I'm thinking right he seems to be a guy that preaches creativity, but also values a structure on the first half of the ice. EDM really couldn't give him a full set of fire power. We've got our flaws but they don't quite run as deep and as mixed up as that roster.

I like the idea of Q a lot more, but that wouldn't be one I'd complain about.

 

[PAZ]

Honestly, seeing the difference between McLellan and Hitchcock coaching the Oilers makes me wary, and IMO was never in the same conversation as Trotz.

IMO, Boudreau's time with the Wild is coming to the end, I highly doubt he'll be there by the start of next season. I'd stick it out with Bednar and wait for Boudreau to become available, he's a perfect fit and I think he gets a lot of unfair criticism for his teams failing in the playoffs.

 

[klozge]

Kind of reminds me of Joe “Need to start the game on time” Sacco

I wanted to say, Bednar reminds me much more of Sacco than of Roy. An advanced version of Sacco perhaps but the differences aren't that great. When I look at their coaching records with the Avs (Bednar: 86-104-21 = 0,91P/G, Sacco: 130-134-30 = 0,99P/G) and consider what kind of players both coaches (have) had to work with I'm not even sure Bednar is the advanced version.
But yeah, let's blame the goalies.

 

[Foppa2118]

Honestly, seeing the difference between McLellan and Hitchcock coaching the Oilers makes me wary, and IMO was never in the same conversation as Trotz.

IMO, Boudreau's time with the Wild is coming to the end, I highly doubt he'll be there by the start of next season. I'd stick it out with Bednar and wait for Boudreau to become available, he's a perfect fit and I think he gets a lot of unfair criticism for his teams failing in the playoffs.

I wasn't necessarily comparing McLellan to Trotz in terms of coaching ability (I'm not sure that's something you can accurately do with most coaches anyway) but more how both were highly respected coaches who'd been around a long time, and coached at various levels, but their reputation started to decline because they didn't win Cups with good teams like SJ and Washington.

 

[kl35ha]

We need an experienced coach for a change. Hiring first timer work during our glory days, only because he had players like Sakic, Forsberg, Foote, Hedjuk, etc.

Put Ryan Smyth behind the net on the PP. Havent forgave him for that one.

That was the first thing that I thought of when people where bringing up Q. lol.

 

[henchman21]

In the three years Roy was with the Avs, 2013-14 to 2015-16, the Avs not only got slaughtered in shot attempts against (second last in the league), but were third last in high danger scoring chances against. In that 2013-14 season they were second last in high danger scoring chances against. They got caved in defensively on a nightly basis, and a ton of those shots were considered quite dangerous. I don't think the Avs were keeping the opposition to the perimeter that frequently.

High danger chances is one of the stats that the advanced stat community tries/tried to use to get to the ever elusive shot quality metric. It really doesn't hold weight.

There were basically 4 goalies used under Roy... Varly, JSG, Berra, and Pickard. Not a single one of those ended under .913 (Will and Aittokallio did, but didn't play full games). JSG ended with the .913 in his only season under Roy. That number is spot on to his average throughout his career, but basically for 08-09 to 13-14 he was a .900-.910 guy most of the time. Berra ended with a .915 which was .01 higher than his career average. Pickard ended with a .927 (highest of the goalies under Roy actually) and that is .018 above his current career average. Varly ended at .921 which is .005 over his career average. There wasn't a single goalie that underperformed under Roy... they all exceeded and 3 of them actually brought up their career averages. If you take Varly's Roy years out of his career, he drops from a .916 goalie to a .912... Berra and Pickard have a much larger drop.

I'm not saying Roy's system was great or that the goalies didn't play well, but that Roy's system certainly helped them and their numbers. To me there isn't a single doubt that it significantly inflated their save percentages.

Back on the Q talk... I can't see the Avs forking out the money for him. Coaches tend to have a short shelf life and the Avs are a cheap organization... over $6m doesn't fit their MO.

 

[CobraAcesS]

High danger chances is one of the stats that the advanced stat community tries/tried to use to get to the ever elusive shot quality metric. It really doesn't hold weight.

There were basically 4 goalies used under Roy... Varly, JSG, Berra, and Pickard. Not a single one of those ended under .913 (Will and Aittokallio did, but didn't play full games). JSG ended with the .913 in his only season under Roy. That number is spot on to his average throughout his career, but basically for 08-09 to 13-14 he was a .900-.910 guy most of the time. Berra ended with a .915 which was .01 higher than his career average. Pickard ended with a .927 (highest of the goalies under Roy actually) and that is .018 above his current career average. Varly ended at .921 which is .005 over his career average. There wasn't a single goalie that underperformed under Roy... they all exceeded and 3 of them actually brought up their career averages. If you take Varly's Roy years out of his career, he drops from a .916 goalie to a .912... Berra and Pickard have a much larger drop.

I'm not saying Roy's system was great or that the goalies didn't play well, but that Roy's system certainly helped them and their numbers. To me there isn't a single doubt that it significantly inflated their save percentages.

Back on the Q talk... I can't see the Avs forking out the money for him. Coaches tend to have a short shelf life and the Avs are a cheap organization... over $6m doesn't fit their MO.

I don't think we can really leave out who their goalie coach was either. I'm not saying your point does not have merit though.

On the coach thing, they gave Roy 5M+, yes it was Roy, but they've paid.

 

[henchman21]

I don't think we can really leave out who their goalie coach was either. I'm not saying your point does not have merit though.

On the coach thing, they gave Roy 5M+, yes it was Roy, but they've paid.

I don't think you fully can, but people were ready to run Allaire out of town after 16-17 where the goalies performed worse with him as the goalie coach, but Bednar here.

Roy also had no fall backup upon firing... if he was let go, their salary obligations went with it. Roy got paid, but there wasn't much risk.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I don't think you fully can, but people were ready to run Allaire out of town after 16-17 where the goalies performed worse with him as the goalie coach, but Bednar here.

Roy also had no fall backup upon firing... if he was let go, their salary obligations went with it. Roy got paid, but there wasn't much risk.

I don't really see much risk in 6M x 4 or whatever for Q either. Coaches of that quality just are not much of a risk. So yes maybe Roy's contract was not guaranteed, but they were also giving that money to a rookie coach.

I think Allaire was nothing more than a empty suit his last year here, and there is more than just conspiracy theory there.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

That is an interesting name that I've always had time for. Didn't he coach the NA squad?

What happened to the NA squad was hilarious. They were one of the best looking teams in the tournament but had to win the final game against Sweden in regulation to guarantee a trip to the semi-finals.

Problem is that the players on that team were so stupid that they did not know that a regulation win was needed to advance. Even a child could have found out that a win was needed by looking it up on online, incredible that players competing in a tournament did not bother to look it up. To make it even more ridiculous the NA coaching staff decided to not mention this to the team intentionally because they did not want them to have any pressure.

 

[CobraAcesS]

What happened to the NA squad was hilarious. They were one of the best looking teams in the tournament but had to win the final game against Sweden in regulation to guarantee a trip to the semi-finals.

Problem is that the players on that team were so stupid that they did not know that a regulation win was needed to advance. Even a child could have found out that a win was needed by looking it up on online, incredible that players competing in a tournament did not bother to look it up. To make it even more ridiculous the NA coaching staff decided to not mention this to the team intentionally because they did not want them to have any pressure.

Yeah, I'm not sure I agree with that decision but I get it.

 

[the_fan]

This slide that the Avs are on cant be pinpointed on one thing saying that's the problem. Goaltending sucks because d isnt good, forwards aren't producing because d cant get pucks to them etc...etc...once the team loses all the confidence it's a domino effect, everything looks bad. This is where leadership and coaching comes in. I'm not saying the Avs need to go on a 10 game win streak, which would be nice and all, but just start playing average at least, win one lose one, the way central division teams are playing, that wouldn't be so bad right now.

 

[the_fan]

This slide that the Avs are on cant be pinpointed on one thing (as far as the players on the ice) saying that's the problem. Goaltending sucks because d isnt good, forwards aren't producing because d cant get pucks to them etc...etc...once the team loses all the confidence it's a domino effect, everything looks bad. This is where leadership and coaching comes in. I'm not saying the Avs need to go on a 10 game win streak, which would be nice and all, but just start playing average at least, win one lose one, the way central division teams are playing, that wouldn't be so bad right now.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Yeah, I'm not sure I agree with that decision but I get it.

Wonder what the post game talk was like.

"Good jog guys. Sorry to burst your bubble but we have not advanced yet. The wild celebration made it kinda look like you thought we are trough to the semis, maybe look it up online next time to be sure. Watch the Russia Finland game tomorrow on the TV and hope that the worst team of the tournament wins or otherwise we are out. In case they lose it was nice knowing you, peace out."

 

[CobraAcesS]

This slide that the Avs are on cant be pinpointed on one thing saying that's the problem. Goaltending sucks because d isnt good, forwards aren't producing because d cant get pucks to them etc...etc...once the team loses all the confidence it's a domino effect, everything looks bad. This is where leadership and coaching comes in. I'm not saying the Avs need to go on a 10 game win streak, which would be nice and all, but just start playing average at least, win one lose one, the way central division teams are playing, that wouldn't be so bad right now.

While I agree with this, I'd place goal-tending as the #1 domino, and lack of consistency in the secondary scoring as the #2 domino.

 

[ArWKo]

From the start of the season to the end of November, Avs had the 3rd best 5v5 shooting % (9.9) and 8th best 5v5 save % (92.81). Since December they're 31st (5.58) and 27th (90.12) in those same categories.

Is there something in the coaching that changed from the first two months of the season to these last two months that would explain such a decline? They're probably not as good as the first two months would indicate but it's hard to imagine they're as bad as these last two (1.5 really) months have shown. There are some known issues like forward depth but obviously the shooting is just absurdly low right now and the goalies, while maybe not great are also probably not close to last in the league as they've played recently.

The "patience" mantra is obviously not a fun one or easy to watch but I think it's probably the case here. Nobody thinks this is team is a contender they way it's composed now, I don't think Bednar can be held to blame entirely for this stretch, it's all part of a mediocre overall composition at this point, a fair bit of poor luck, and some poor play as well.

Next season I think is when we should expect a bigger upswing with hopefully some depth from recent drafts (and maybe this one). The only lingering question will be goaltending which is obviously a huge one, we don't want to get caught in a Philly situation moving forward.

 

[Hasbro]

We need an experienced coach for a change. Hiring first timer work during our glory days, only because he had players like Sakic, Forsberg, Foote, Hedjuk, etc.

And Crawford and Hartley were great bench bosses. Sure they had other weaknesses, but you rarely were scratching your head at their line up card.

 

[Hasbro]

The "patience" mantra is obviously not a fun one or easy to watch but I think it's probably the case here. .

In this case we're talking about a few months as opposed to a few years. So we've got that going for us.

 

[the_fan]

While I agree with this, I'd place goal-tending as the #1 domino, and lack of consistency in the secondary scoring as the #2 domino.

I agree that 2 noticable issues are secondary scoring and goaltending, while secondary scoring issue is real, it's not mental issue, the team just doesn't have it, goaltending and defense is more of confidence and not believing at each other issue right now. There are defensive breakdowns because there is extra pressure on defense not to make mistakes knowing that the goalies have been bad and vice versa. Goalies dont have confidence knowing that d isnt playing well. A lot of times when the team is winning, they all look good, then they look bad when they're losing