Bear & Jones Pairing - This Ain’t It Chief

[Tobias Kahun]

There is a benefit of Jones over Koekkoek, but for a bottom pairing guy I prefer Koekkoek, especially for these playoffs.

I feel like against the intensity of playoff opposition, where even lower teams will up their tenacity, Jones could get badly exposed. Jones' skills are useful in that situation too, but considering our D and team in general, we should opt for stability over aggression for our depth D, and leave the gambling for Barrie, Bear, and Nurse. Or even Kulikov and Larsson.

Plus that bottom pairing will have either Bear or Barrie on it. You want the other guy to be a responsible veteran like Koekkoek or even Russell.

But I do support Tippett giving Jones so much rope. I think he will be a solid playoff option to change the look of the D if we want to, and perhaps even to draw in the odd game to be a puck moving D who is also fresh.

Koekkoek was bleeding goals more than any other D we had.

Just because hes an older veteran, doesn't make him responsible.

If we want a responsible "veteran" Lagesson is a much better choice.

During the first 20 games of the season where 4K played 17 of them

4K - 1.33 gf/60 4 ga/60
Caleb Jones - 3.06 gf/60 3.67 ga/60
Tyson Barrie - 2.96 gf/60 3.14 ga/60
Darnell Nurse - 4.17 gf/60 2.83 ga/60
Adam Larsson - 2.54 gf/60 2.54 ga/60
Ethan Bear - 3.86 gf/60 2.32 ga/60
Evan Bouchard - 2.38 gf/60 1.9 ga/60
Kris Russell - 1.35 gf/60 1.68 ga/60
William Lagesson - 3.47 gf/60 1.39 ga/60

 

[SK13]

Koekkoek was bleeding goals more than any other D we had.

Just because hes an older veteran, doesn't make him responsible.

If we want a responsible "veteran" Lagesson is a much better choice.

During the first 20 games of the season where 4K played 17 of them

4K - 1.33 gf/60 4 ga/60
Caleb Jones - 3.06 gf/60 3.67 ga/60
Tyson Barrie - 2.96 gf/60 3.14 ga/60
Darnell Nurse - 4.17 gf/60 2.83 ga/60
Adam Larsson - 2.54 gf/60 2.54 ga/60
Ethan Bear - 3.86 gf/60 2.32 ga/60
Evan Bouchard - 2.38 gf/60 1.9 ga/60
Kris Russell - 1.35 gf/60 1.68 ga/60
William Lagesson - 3.47 gf/60 1.39 ga/60

The sample renders this meaningless.

4K played those January games where the Oilers had no goaltending.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

The sample renders this meaningless.

4K played those January games where the Oilers had no goaltending.

All those stats, are from the first 20 games when he was healthy

The whole team had shit goaltending on those stats.

 

[TheNumber4]

For 4K not risking much, the puck sure ends up in his net a lot

We going by plus minus ? The same plus minus that convinced people Benning was good and our other defencemen weren’t?

 

[Tobias Kahun]

We going by plus minus ? The same plus minus that convinced people Benning was good and our other defencemen weren’t?

So you think its okay for a guy getting easy minutes to be getting scored on at a 4 ga/60 rate?

For example, last year, benning played more minutes per game, and only got scored on at a rate of 1.69 per 60.

 

[TheNumber4]

So you think its okay for a guy getting easy minutes to be getting scored on at a 4 ga/60 rate?

Did you look into if Kosko or Smith was in net during those early season games?

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Did you look into if Kosko or Smith was in net during those early season games?

Does it matter? I listed all the other D's gf/ga breakdown during the first 20 games before he got injured.

He was by far the worst.

 

[TheNumber4]

Does it matter? I listed all the other D's gf/ga breakdown during the first 20 games before he got injured.

He was by far the worst.

Small sample. Need to know who his partner was. Need to know who is competition was. Eye test doesn’t match with this assessment of his game. He was seen by most as being solid to start, had a small dip, got injured.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Small sample. Need to know who his partner was. Need to know who is competition was. Eye test doesn’t match with this assessment of his game. He was seen by most as being solid to start, had a small dip, got injured.

He was solid to start for the first 3 or 4 games, probably one of our best D, and then he really started to struggle.

His actual results, and all analytics point to him being poor and not one of our best 6 D, and so does the eye test.

His 3 most common D partners was

Barrie at 60:40
Larsson at 54:03
Bouchard 47:36

All 3 of those D were better away from him than with him.

Almost every single player saw better results away from him than with him.

 

[McDrai]

Ideal pairing would be Bouchard -Bear if one of them could play LD... I feel sorry for Bear having to carry Jones. That's not an easy task.

 

[Giggleplex]

Ideal pairing would be Bouchard -Bear if one of them could play LD... I feel sorry for Bear having to carry Jones. That's not an easy task.

Bouchard played LD in one game against Toronto. I think many of us have already flushed that game from our memories though.

 

[TheNumber4]

He was solid to start for the first 3 or 4 games, probably one of our best D, and then he really started to struggle.

His actual results, and all analytics point to him being poor and not one of our best 6 D, and so does the eye test.

His 3 most common D partners was

Barrie at 60:40
Larsson at 54:03
Bouchard 47:36

All 3 of those D were better away from him than with him.

Almost every single player saw better results away from him than with him.

He was solid mostly when healthy and sporadically he had some problems during that time as well like most 3rd pairing D. But to jog my memory, I Looked up his player grades on Cult of Hockey, he was consistently fluctuating from 4,5,6 and even had a 7 one game through his games here. Jones in that same time had two 4 ratings. Lines up pretty closely to what I remember of the early season 4K vs Jones assessment. And I don’t think Jones has done anything since 4Ks injury to really make him the defacto go-to option, he’s looked slightly better recently but still the execution is few and far between.

 

[AsparaGus]

Who cares what happened in the play ins?

I do.

 

[Paralyzer008]

I do.

What's funny about this is that in the play-in, Jones and Benning were our best pair. They were the only D who showed up.

Klefbom was ailing, Nurse sucked, Bear looked like a rookie, Russell scored on our own net like three times and got hemmed in.

So yes Koekkoek was good there. And so was Jones.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

If I remember correctly (and glancing at the game sheets), 4K only really got victimized in the second series vs. Toronto. Plus looking at the game logs, there was also one game vs. Winnipeg right before he got hurt.

Glancing at the highlights, one thing I see is he was generally got beat (like a rented mule) by high end talent in those games. But it wasn't poor choices by him that caused the puck to end up in the back of the net (as is the case with Jones). With Nurse and Kulikov above him, I'd be comfortable with him in a limited 3rd pairing role.

Tbh, Lagesson is my first choice for the #3LD (or Bouchard, if Tippett wasn't so stubborn on the L-R setup on D), but 4K is a safe second one. Just so long as it isn't Jones or Russell playing with Bear.


Imo, the bottom 4 (behind Nurse-Barrie) should be one of these setups.

Kulikov-Larsson
K4/Lags/Bouchard-Bear

Bear-Larsson
Kulikov-Bouchard

 

[Drivesaitl]

4K managed to get to -7 in 17 games.

He had been much worse than Jones.

This is misunderstanding specific circumstance. The team started out 3-6, was giving up a lot of goals and the whole team not playing very well. Due to the timing of 4K injury this sample would be over represented in his stats relative to the rest of the team playing entire season.

In anycase its arguing over either/or. Tippett himself has weighed in on the respective D with his allocation. 4K and Jones have the LOWEST toi usage of any D on the team. That I would think conveying how much the coach wanted to play them, or felt comfortable playing them.

Nor is Tippett getting it wrong in any appreciable way. Top 3 used D by miles are Nurse, Barrie, Larsson.

Then followed by Russell, Bear, Kulikov. Which all makes sense. Those are the 6 D on the team that should be seeing minutes. Other than Bouchard who the org is being consciously slow in using (still don't know what the deal is with that)

 

[Tobias Kahun]

This is misunderstanding specific circumstance. The team started out 3-6, was giving up a lot of goals and the whole team not playing very well. Due to the timing of 4K injury this sample would be over represented in his stats relative to the rest of the team playing entire season.

In anycase its arguing over either/or. Tippett himself has weighed in on the respective D with his allocation. 4K and Jones have the LOWEST toi usage of any D on the team. That I would think conveying how much the coach wanted to play them, or felt comfortable playing them.

Nor is Tippett getting it wrong in any appreciable way. Top 3 used D by miles are Nurse, Barrie, Larsson.

Then followed by Russell, Bear, Kulikov. Which all makes sense. Those are the 6 D on the team that should be seeing minutes. Other than Bouchard who the org is being consciously slow in using (still don't know what the deal is with that)

I broke down the stats during the first 20 games that he was healthy, and he was still the worst

 

[Blue Line Turnover]

Jones scares the shit out of me with his defensive zone coverage decisions; he misses assignments, which causes Bear to scramble. Also, some of his decisions with the puck still baffle me, but he's getting better in that aspect.

4K played his worst hockey when the entire time was a dumpster fire. You have to give 4k the benefit of the doubt when he has a few rounds of playoff experience (where he played very well), has a higher pedigree (10th overall by Tampa), the regular members on the Blackhawks' forums miss him being on their team, and he has shown to be a calming presence on multiple NHL clubs.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

I dont think people realized how bad 4K was before he got injured...

 

[joestevens29]

I dont think people realized how bad 4K was before he got injured...

I agree

The guy literally has the least toi/gp of our d-men yet he's apparently some sort of saviour?

 

[Little Fury]

If there's an instance where the other team establishes possession in our zone, I want Lagesson out there over Jones. That's for damn sure. Mistake prone Jones has a tendency of ending up with puck in his net pretty frequently when he makes a boneheaded decision.

This is a great example of how negative bias and luck works.

Jones' only saving grace are his inflated team shot metrics that you seem to regularly value over actually seeing how the player performs when he's on the ice. To me it's pretty clear that he has very little impact on them.

Yeah silly me valuing objective numbers over horrifically flawed observation. How are his shot numbers "inflated," exactly?

He certainly isnt. You wouldnt be able to count mistakes made by Lagesson on one hand where you will run out of fingers and toes if counting mistakes by Jones.

Guys that have the puck on their stick will make more mistakes than guys that don't.

Lagesson-Larsson pairing is good enough to play top 4 mins.

Jesus this is the worst take I've ever seen on this board.

 

[Drivesaitl]

This is a great example of how negative bias and luck works.



Yeah silly me valuing objective numbers over horrifically flawed observation. How are his shot numbers "inflated," exactly?



Guys that have the puck on their stick will make more mistakes than guys that don't.



Jesus this is the worst take I've ever seen on this board.

Objective numbers like Jones GA, him having the least minutes per game of any D except 4K, of him being -4 in last 5GP and at fault for many of the GA in a weak part of the schedule when he was facing easiest possible opposition?

Humor the board. What do you think that Jones does well. Because his head coach sure doesn't trust him with a lot of minutes.

As far as the bolded Jones makes a lot of mistakes without the puck as well.

btw a 6% shooting might be an indicator of padding shots. One would have to try hard at it to arrive at numbers that low. I was going to say I can't remember the last time Jones scored a goal and its because he hasn't all season. For a guy thats touted to offer something offensively sure doesn't seem like it.

 

[Little Fury]

Objective numbers like Jones GA, him having the least minutes per game of any D except 4K, of him being -4 in last 5GP and at fault for many of the GA in a weak part of the schedule when he was facing easiest possible opposition?

We were talking about shot metrics. Said so in the post I was responding to.

Humor the board. What do you think that Jones does well. Because his head coach sure doesn't trust him with a lot of minutes.

When he's on, he does a little bit of everything well, but doesn't really have a particular standout skillset. he's had the yips a bit this season, but again, we're talking about a 23 year old former fourth round pick with under 100GP, you're gonna see some bumps.

btw a 6% shooting might be an indicator of padding shots. One would have to try hard at it to arrive at numbers that low. I was going to say I can't remember the last time Jones scored a goal and its because he hasn't all season. For a guy thats touted to offer something offensively sure doesn't seem like it.

No idea what this is referencing.

 

[Drivesaitl]

We were talking about shot metrics. Said so in the post I was responding to.



When he's on, he does a little bit of everything well, but doesn't really have a particular standout skillset. he's had the yips a bit this season, but again, we're talking about a 23 year old former fourth round pick with under 100GP, you're gonna see some bumps.



No idea what this is referencing.

What I'm seeing from Jones is a D touted to have some offensive ability and upside that doesn't show a speck of that at the NHL level and hasn't all season. What I see in scouting reports is a player thats big and uses his size and I don't think he does enough of that either.

For sure there are no standout skillsets although he's said to be an excellent skater, I'm not seeing him get back on plays after his many blown tires. I'm not even seeing appreciable Jump D from the player, on a club that greenlights that.

Basically every D having career years. Jones not getting any offense together, not defending good either.

I'll ask a 2nd time because it seems hard to answer. What is Jones particularly good at?

Bear, Bouchard, they look unpacked ready to go. Bear has for some time and the same age. Bouchard much younger and looks like anytime he steps in he's a better option than Jones and certainly offensively.

With the Seattle draft its likely we're seeing the last of Jones here. I see no need to protect him and expose others.

 

[Little Fury]

What I'm seeing from Jones is a D touted to have some offensive ability and upside that doesn't show a speck of that at the NHL level and hasn't all season. What I see in scouting reports is a player thats big and uses his size and I don't think he does enough of that either.

For sure there are no standout skillsets although he's said to be an excellent skater, I'm not seeing him get back on plays after his many blown tires. I'm not even seeing appreciable Jump D from the player, on a club that greenlights that.

Basically every D having career years. Jones not getting any offense together, not defending good either.

I'll ask a 2nd time because it seems hard to answer. What is Jones particularly good at? .

Pros: Good skater, good passer, good compete level for an undersized player. Cons: Gets the yips under pressure, tries to do too much and the game is still too fast for him.

You seem to be under the impression I'm arguing that he's having a great season. I'm not. I don't even think his upside is particularly high, but he's better than some of the other options on the bottom pair, none of whom are great at anything at all.q

Bear, Bouchard, they look unpacked ready to go. Bear has for some time and the same age. Bouchard much younger and looks like anytime he steps in he's a better option than Jones and certainly offensively.

Bouchard is a top 10 pick, I'd expect a player like that to be better already. Bear had to work his bag off to get where he is and that's his edge.

The real test IMO will be if Broberg is ready to step in, but he's apparently been crap this season.

With the Seattle draft its likely we're seeing the last of Jones here. I see no need to protect him and expose others.

What D man do you protect over Jones? Russell?