Blue Jays Discussion: Baseball's back! Maybe (Plan to start late July unless things go sideways)

[metafour]

Not fetishizing at all. They had legit talent and fell due to sign-ability concerns and in most cases prospects do that on purpose so they can land with a specific team - see Bo Bichette from the 2016 when he went in the 2nd round. Or a specific team was willing to pay them more in the pre-draft. If Wilcox and Kelley said they were signing with anyone then they go in the first round. White Sox and Padres could have liked these guys but not better than Crochet and Hassell respectively or they manipulated the draft by taking underslot guys early because they knew they had Wilcox and Kelley in the bag later in the draft.

MLB draft boards dont fall like the other big 3 leagues (maybe hockey with Russian players), you know that. Its why a guy like Martin went 5th, Baltimore and Miami wanted to spread their money out. Lacy was just higher on KC's Board. No one said they were "cant miss" - im just saying i like their stuff and upside over the rest of the Jays draft. As of now, Wilcox has the 15th highest signing bonus in the draft and Kelley tied for 19th with another HS arm in Bitsko. i doubt they got that much money based on a fetish - they have legit talent and upside.

But they didn't just fall because of signability. Both guys had question marks which made them undesirable at their perceived price tags versus other players who were comparable at lower cost: Wilcox with his marginal improvement in college and reliever risk, and Kelley because his advanced metrics don't line up with the pitching models that data-driven teams now rely heavily on for scouting (us included - which kind of kills the entire idea that we'd punt our remaining picks for him).

Both guys you named are obviously talented players with legitimate upside; I was never arguing against that point. However, all three of Van Eyk, Palmer, and Frasso are talented in their own regard. You just brought up that Frasso could have played himself into the 1st round had he not been injured, and Van Eyk had Top 15 helium at one point in the preseason before a few shaky starts before the lockdown may have pushed him lower than his talent indicates, while Palmer seems to be a pitch-data darling. I just don't see the argument where Wilcox for $3.3 million makes sense over Van Eyk for $1.8 million, plus two other plus-stuff pitchers. It makes even less sense with Kelley who is a HS pitcher who while talented, obviously doesn't tick the boxes that data-driven teams want to see out of a maxed-out HS pitcher in 2020.

Your hypothetical scenario makes more sense if the perceived pitcher was a legitimate Top 15 talent in which case you could argue "quality over quantity", but I just don't see either Wilcox or Kelley fitting that bill over what we ended up doing in the draft. You have a better argument with Wilcox who probably could have played himself into that type of category had the season continued as he was having a good start to the year, but I think the fault in the argument is that you aren't considering that Van Eyk alone isn't far off from those two players (and that actually reflects in several draft rankings wherein he's ranked only a handful of spots below Wilcox and Kelley). In this case I don't see how its worth it to throw away 3 picks in order to get a "slightly better" guy in the 2nd round. Teams with good scouting staffs and track records in drafting (ie: the Jays) should be trying to maximize on as many picks as they can to take advantage of that strength in scouting; I don't think it makes sense to limit yourself to just two selections in a strong/deep draft year.

 

[Nineteen67]

Why are they doing so many road trips? No way this season gets done when you have these guys all flying around every week.

More players should pull the plug on the season. It’s gonna be a gong show.

They fly charter so it really shouldn’t matter.

 

[The Nemesis]

From a bits & pieces Athletic article by Andrew Stoeten, it's mentioned that Reese McGuire's legal issues ended with his charge argued down from "exposure of sexual organs" to "disorderly conduct" and a $450 fine.

So I guess that's two happy endings for Reese as a result of all this craziness.

 

[phillipmike]

But they didn't just fall because of signability. Both guys had question marks which made them undesirable at their perceived price tags versus other players who were comparable at lower cost: Wilcox with his marginal improvement in college and reliever risk, and Kelley because his advanced metrics don't line up with the pitching models that data-driven teams now rely heavily on for scouting (us included - which kind of kills the entire idea that we'd punt our remaining picks for him).

Both guys you named are obviously talented players with legitimate upside; I was never arguing against that point. However, all three of Van Eyk, Palmer, and Frasso are talented in their own regard. You just brought up that Frasso could have played himself into the 1st round had he not been injured, and Van Eyk had Top 15 helium at one point in the preseason before a few shaky starts before the lockdown may have pushed him lower than his talent indicates, while Palmer seems to be a pitch-data darling. I just don't see the argument where Wilcox for $3.3 million makes sense over Van Eyk for $1.8 million, plus two other plus-stuff pitchers. It makes even less sense with Kelley who is a HS pitcher who while talented, obviously doesn't tick the boxes that data-driven teams want to see out of a maxed-out HS pitcher in 2020.

Your hypothetical scenario makes more sense if the perceived pitcher was a legitimate Top 15 talent in which case you could argue "quality over quantity", but I just don't see either Wilcox or Kelley fitting that bill over what we ended up doing in the draft. You have a better argument with Wilcox who probably could have played himself into that type of category had the season continued as he was having a good start to the year, but I think the fault in the argument is that you aren't considering that Van Eyk alone isn't far off from those two players (and that actually reflects in several draft rankings wherein he's ranked only a handful of spots below Wilcox and Kelley). In this case I don't see how its worth it to throw away 3 picks in order to get a "slightly better" guy in the 2nd round. Teams with good scouting staffs and track records in drafting (ie: the Jays) should be trying to maximize on as many picks as they can to take advantage of that strength in scouting; I don't think it makes sense to limit yourself to just two selections in a strong/deep draft year.

We shall see, I may point out that you highlighted mostly negatives of what made Kelley and Wilcox drop and mostly the positives in Van Eyk and Frasso as you why they could have gone higher. They could have went higher to but had warts as well; Van Eyk due to ceiling, injury and command issues and Frasso due to injury and inconsistency. Command and injury issues are something you don’t really want to see from college guys.

Like I said I see Kelley and Wilcox falling more to signability than on just talent. Kelley was taking with the 47th pick and got the 19th high bonus in the draft so far (highest in the 2nd round) and Wilcox was taking with the 80th pick and got the 15th highest bonus so far (highest in the 3rd round).

Kelley signed a deal that had the 4th highest (Wilcox, Harrison and Ginn were higher) variance from his recommended slot in the draft and Wilcox the highest in the entire draft. For Wilcox I believe I read that is an MLB record.

There is more evidence to suggest that they dropped due to signability based on their signing bonus and where they were picked.

In the end we will see when it comes down to to quality of quantity. It’s seems like the Mets and White Sox invested in few vs many. The Jays will get star potential in Martin. I think the Mets and Sox left the draft with players each that have star potential and the Jays could have done the same. Again nothing wrong with how the draft shook out, I trust the Jays scouts.

The bold part is why I asked the question. What people would prefer and why. You picked a side and gave your reason. Seems like a legitimate reason. For me I saw Kelley and Wilcox as top 20-25 talents (they got paid like it). I think Van Eyk went where he should have: so the question is do you want another top 25 talent with 3 top 500 guys or do you want a top 40 guy, a top 80, a top 200 and a top 500.

 

[phillipmike]

What might MLB teams spend in an uncertain offseason? Ranking 30 clubs by 2021 payroll situation

1. Toronto Blue Jays

2020 projected payroll: $109.0 million
2021 payroll obligations: $53.9 million (five players)
2021 notable arbitration-eligibles: Teoscar Hernandez, Travis Shaw

Hyun-Jin Ryu is the big earner and Randal Grichuk and Tanner Roark are well-paid, otherwise the Blue Jays don't have much on the books and all those highly regarded youngsters (Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) are still years away from arbitration-eligibility. Toronto has more young talent coming too, particularly righty Nate Pearson, who ranks among the game's top pitching prospects. He should arrive at some point in 2020.

The Blue Jays ran payrolls north of $160 million as recently as 2018. They will spend when they're good, and their current payroll outlook sets them up to be very aggressive in free agency this offseason. Maybe they don't spend huge on a Mookie Betts or a J.T. Realmuto, but they could load up on one- or two-year deals while the kids are dirt cheap. Could they get, say, post-back surgery James Paxton on a one-year prove yourself contract and Trevor Bauer on one of those one-year contracts he says he's going to sign? There's an opening for the Blue Jays to load up on short-term deals and make a run in the AL East in 2021 and 2022.

Sign me up for Paxton and Bauer on 1 year deals. Would love a 2021 rotation of:

#1 Nate Pearson
#2 Hyun-Jin Ryu
#3 Trevor Bauer
#4 James Paxton
#5 Tanner Roark

Give a middle of the order bat on a short term deal like Ozuna or Brantley and I’ll be fine.

Cavan Biggio - 2B
Bo Bichette - SS
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B
Marcel Ozuna/Michael Brantley - RF
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - LF
Teoscar Hernandez - DH
Randall Grichuk - CF
Danny Jansen - C
Travis Shaw - 1B

Hopefully Manoah and SWR are ready in 2022 if not earlier. Groshans in 2022 for 3B and Vladdy slides to 1B and Martin for CF.

 

[phillipmike]

MLB schedule: Ranking 2020 Opening Day matchups, with Yankees-Nationals at the top

7. Blue Jays at Rays

The Rays could compete for the American League East crown, and figure to have Blake Snell on the mound. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have all kinds of young hitting talent. This should mark the team debut of Hyun-Jin Ryu as well.

 

[The Nemesis]

Gonna put up a new thread in a minute.