Blue Jays Discussion: Baseball's back! Maybe (Plan to start late July unless things go sideways)

[canucksfan]

Astros cancelled their practice because of this.

 

[ACC1224]

I saw on the news the Jays Players getting off the bus at Sky Dome. Have they announced when the 1st game will be played?

 

[theaub]

I saw on the news the Jays Players getting off the bus at Sky Dome. Have they announced when the 1st game will be played?

Schedule release at 6 PM tonight

 

[AllDay28]

Oakland players cant practice cause they haven't gotten a test result back yet

 

[ACC1224]

Schedule release at 6 PM tonight

Thanks. Are they projecting an end of July start?

 

[IceColdBear]

The stage is set perfectly for a real fun Jay's season.

No expectations, loads of young talent with a chance to shock the world (aka NY & Boston) in a 60 game sprint.

I know I'll be watching. I don't think the city has really keyed in on the Jays yet, but the bandwagon will be in full swing soon enough.

Tip of the cap to Atkins & Shapiro as well, I've been critical of them in the past, but the future looks bright. We need to get it done on the field, but I like their moves as a whole in retrospect (obviously with some exceptions).

 

[Ambassador Bridge]

Thanks. Are they projecting an end of July start?

July 23

 

[phillipmike]

We got a consensus top pick in the draft, and at worst 4 lottery tickets. In baseball I'd almost always take quantity over quality because of how the odds shake out in this sport, but we also go the best quality player to go along with quantity so its a win-win for me.

Sorry i wasn't clear, Martin would be your pick regardless for 5th overall. So the real decision is if you want players where they were likely supposed to be taken in Van Eyk, Palmer, Frasso and Britton or take a top 10-20 talent in Wilcox or Kelley with likely undrafted players taken in rounds 3-5.

So the options are;

Austin Martin, CJ, Van Eyk. Trent Palmer, Nick Frasso and Zach Britton.

OR

Austin Martin, Cole Wilcox OR Jared Kelley and 3 "undrafted talents".

Here are 3 players that signed for a combine $50,000 from rounds 3-5 that would have been available at the Jays pick;

New York Mets: 3rd Round - 91st overall - SS Anthony Walters - $20,000
Chicago White Sox: 4th Round - 123rd overall - P Kade Mechals - $10,000
New York Mets: 5th Round - 150th overall - P Eric Orze - $20,000

If you signed Kelley for 3M then that would leave 7.15M for Martin. If you signed Wilcox for 3.3M then that would leave 6.85M for Martin.

 

[metafour]

I think that you are fetishizing those two based on a few draft rankings, which teams themselves obviously disagreed with based off of how the draft went (most notably Kelley who definitely wasn't viewed anywhere near as highly on team boards as he was on sites like MLB.com). Both guys signed for ~19th-23rd overall slot money - if they were can't miss "Top 10-20" talents then they would have went in that range, since they were both signable for money in that range. What that means is that there really isn't much actual "difference" between those two and Van Eyk to justify punting the remaining three picks. I have a very hard time believing that Jared Kelley is likely to outproduce Van Eyk+Palmer+Frasso...if that was the belief, he would have been drafted accordingly; not slipping into the 40's and passed up by a bunch of teams that had the money to sign him for $3 million.

I understand the logic of your question; but I don't think there is a wide enough gap in talent to justify what you are suggesting.

 

[weems]

Updated Baseball America rankings

Pearson #7
A. Martin #16
Groshans #31
SWR #67

 

[FreeBird]

Updated Baseball America rankings

Pearson #7
A. Martin #16
Groshans #31
SWR #67

 

[as Pure as Evil]

so with all the players pulling out any one know if they are going to have some back door to return to the club if they have a change of heart?. or is it once the the rosters are set then they are sol?

 

[theaub]

so with all the players pulling out any one know if they are going to have some back door to return to the club if they have a change of heart?. or is it once the the rosters are set then they are sol?

 

[phillipmike]

I think that you are fetishizing those two based on a few draft rankings, which teams themselves obviously disagreed with based off of how the draft went (most notably Kelley who definitely wasn't viewed anywhere near as highly on team boards as he was on sites like MLB.com). Both guys signed for ~19th-23rd overall slot money - if they were can't miss "Top 10-20" talents then they would have went in that range, since they were both signable for money in that range. What that means is that there really isn't much actual "difference" between those two and Van Eyk to justify punting the remaining three picks. I have a very hard time believing that Jared Kelley is likely to outproduce Van Eyk+Palmer+Frasso...if that was the belief, he would have been drafted accordingly; not slipping into the 40's and passed up by a bunch of teams that had the money to sign him for $3 million.

Not fetishizing at all. They had legit talent and fell due to sign-ability concerns and in most cases prospects do that on purpose so they can land with a specific team - see Bo Bichette from the 2016 when he went in the 2nd round. Or a specific team was willing to pay them more in the pre-draft. If Wilcox and Kelley said they were signing with anyone then they go in the first round. White Sox and Padres could have liked these guys but not better than Crochet and Hassell respectively or they manipulated the draft by taking underslot guys early because they knew they had Wilcox and Kelley in the bag later in the draft.

MLB draft boards dont fall like the other big 3 leagues (maybe hockey with Russian players), you know that. Its why a guy like Martin went 5th, Baltimore and Miami wanted to spread their money out. Lacy was just higher on KC's Board. No one said they were "cant miss" - im just saying i like their stuff and upside over the rest of the Jays draft. As of now, Wilcox has the 15th highest signing bonus in the draft and Kelley tied for 19th with another HS arm in Bitsko. i doubt they got that much money based on a fetish - they have legit talent and upside.

. I have a very hard time believing that Jared Kelley is likely to outproduce Van Eyk+Palmer+Frasso...

To me the question is, what are the odds Frasso and Britton make the majors let alone are good enough to produce? Thats where the value could be had where a "punted" pick might still have the same risk/upside of a player like Frasso who has a lot prove or Britton who has an ok floor but a low ceiling.

So for me the question is, do you prefer Van Eyk and Palmer or Wilcox or Kelley? I take Wilcox or Kelley as they have frontline upside whereas Van Eyk is more of a mid rotational guy and Palmer is either a backend guy or a reliver.

I understand the logic of your question; but I don't think there is a wide enough gap in talent to justify what you are suggesting.

Its pretty much all i was asking. Its a legit question based on preference - quality vs quantity, thats all. If you think Van Eyk is close to Wilcox and Kelley then you stick with the Jays draft because Palmer and maybe Frasso give you more value. If not, then you roll the dice taking the higher upside player; quality over quantity.

 

[Bjindaho]

But we expect Martin to sign for more than that.

So your brilliant plan might not even work numbers wise let alone talent wise.

 

[Anthrax442]

 

[LeafsNation75]

 

[Canada4Gold]

Stringing together other teams schedule releases the Jays do not have a day off in their 1st 7 days. 3 @ TB,
2 @ WSH, 2 v WSH. So assuming they service time Nate Pearson he could start the 8th game which has been said to be against the Phillies but I can't find it.

Don't play the Yankees until September when they basically quarantine together. 10 of the Yankess final 20 games are against us.

 

[BigBlu]

So we start tough, then face the Yankees a tonne down the stretch...

 

[LeafsNation75]

 

[theaub]

Zero weekday day games huh

 

[weems]

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

Why are they doing so many road trips? No way this season gets done when you have these guys all flying around every week.

More players should pull the plug on the season. It’s gonna be a gong show.

 

[phillipmike]

But we expect Martin to sign for more than that.

So your brilliant plan might not even work numbers wise let alone talent wise.

You could be right but the Jays currently have 7.46M left to sign Martin and Frasso. I doubt Frasso gets less than 300K but stranger things have happened. I assume Frasso gets something in 300-500k range at a minimum as he was projected to go in the first round pre-season.

In the current scenario, Jays will give Martin 6.95M to 7.15M unless Frasso gets a lot less than we think. In “my” scenario of getting Wilcox or Kelley the Jays have 6.85M to 7.15M to offer Martin. If Martin doesn’t sign over the difference of 100k when he is getting close to 7M then we have a bigger issue.

That gives them $7,454,824 of room to give to Martin and fourth rounder Nick Frasso without forfeiting future draft picks by exceeding their pool. That $7.45 million figure lands between the second and third overall slot bonus.

 

[Anthrax442]

Zero weekday day games huh

Too bad, those were my "sneak out from work for a long lunch at the pub" days