Bartolo Colon HOF?

[NJ Fan 12]

No.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Off the top of my head I would put in these guys over Colon

Orel Hershiser
Vida Blue
Kevin Brown
Bob Welch
Billy Pierce
David Cone
Mark Buehrle

None of these pitchers will be in HOF it seems so that makes Colon an easy no

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Bart woulf have a much better case if his years 32-37 weren't wasted by injuries. He averages a WAR of 2-3 in those 5-6 years and he's around 60-65 right now.

Retiring with a Cy and making the asg with 4 different teams are solid accolades, but definitely not hof worthy on their own.

 

[frontsfan2005]

Unfortunately, he battled injuries from 2006-2010, and despite his late career resurgence, he's far from the Hall of Fame.

If Colon was healthy in those seasons, does he still pitch until he's 45? If Colon's career from 2012-2018 remains the same and he's healthy enough to average 14 wins a season from 2006-2010 (not unrealistic, he averaged close to 17 wins a season from 1998-2005), this brings him to 303 wins and probably enough to make it in, despite his high ERA.

In his career, he won the Cy Young in 2005, although Johan Santana completely outpitched him. His next highest was finishing in fourth in voting in 1999, well behind Pedro. He received a single vote in 2002 with the Expos and finished in 6th in 2012 with the A's.

I have a hard time seeing him pitch until 45 years old if he's healthy from 2006-2010. In 2004, he signed a $51 million, 4 year deal with the Angels from 2004-2007. He likely would've signed another similar contract had he remained healthy (he turned 35 that season), and likely retires after this contract - well short of 300 wins or any discussion about being a hall of famer.

 

[Cas]

Colon did suffer somewhat in that his best season (2002) was split between seasons. Had he remained in the AL all year (with the same performance), he would have been right in the middle of Cy Young voting.

It's a fair point that he wouldn't likely have pitched as long had he not suffered injuries in his prime.Even if we assume he did (at the same level of effectiveness), and given him the average of his 2004-5/2011-12 seasons in place of his 2006-2010 period, he'd have just about 60 career WAR without a really strong peak, which isn't a very good case.

Throw those counting stats on, though, and we're looking at a pitcher with a 305-215 record in about 4,100 career innings with a 4.00 ERA (roughly 108 ERA+), one Cy Young (undeserved, but he might have been close to deserving one he didn't win, call it a wash), four (maybe five) All Star selections, a decent postseason record but probably no rings (the 2006-2007 Angels were good teams, maybe a better Colon helps push them over the top. Maybe that's a Hall of Famer in an Early Wynn/Don Sutton sort of way, but it'd take him a few tries to get in. I don't think I'd vote for this hypothetical player, but I don't think I'd be too miffed by his election. Without the lengthy post-40 career, though, Colon doesn't come close to 300 wins or 4000 innings and so won't get elected.

Colon really needed not just health in his mid-30's, he needed another really effective season (like 2002). Take away forty runs in 2004 and he has a pretty nice prime, probably a third 20-win season, maybe another Cy Young (or maybe he wins a deserved award and not an undeserved award), another 5 WAR, and maybe that, in conjunction with better health, makes him a deserved Hall of Famer or at least not an embarrassing choice. But you could say the same for a lot of players.

Colon just didn't come close - he wasn't a really good pitcher for long enough.