Ansar Khan: Babcock to Weiss: Do it Right or You'll Hate the Coach

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Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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Um, not on paper he doesn't. As I said, each team to begin the season has a 1/30 chance of winning the Cup. You can't dispute that. Thirty teams in the league. Only one Stanley Cup.

If that was true then Vegas would lay the same odds for every team, since there are 30 teams every year.

Clearly with different talent levels on every team, you can't say that they all have the same odds of winning a cup. There's really not great logic supporting that.

I understand there are 30 teams in the league, but they are clearly all not equally constructed.
 

stu the grim reaper

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Jul 3, 2002
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The Wings were 1 goal away from eliminating the eventual Stanley Cup champs.
If that's not a contender, I don't know what is???

one goal from beating a team that was ambivalent about winning... one goal from getting their butts handed to them in the next round

i think cleary is still catching his breath too
 

Bench

3 is a good start
Aug 14, 2011
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The math doesn't lie. It's 1 in 30.

Any other odds created are entirely subjective and not the true value. That isn't to say those subjectively created values won't more accurately predict the winner, it just means it's creating bias for something that, in actuality, is 1 in 30.

It's a weird debate to be having, I'll say that.
 

Chance on Chance

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Jul 15, 2009
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If that was true then Vegas would lay the same odds for every team, since there are 30 teams every year.

Clearly with different talent levels on every team, you can't say that they all have the same odds of winning a cup. There's really not great logic supporting that.

I understand there are 30 teams in the league, but they are clearly all not equally constructed.

The couple Vegas odds sites I looked at had us pegged around 5-7 with 15-1 odds
 

RedWingsNow*

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You can dispute it. But one of thirty teams will win the Cup. And I'm done going in circles with you.

One of 30 teams doesn't equal one in 30 odds.

there is no circle. You're at a dead end.
 

RedWingsNow*

Guest
The math doesn't lie. It's 1 in 30.

Any other odds created are entirely subjective and not the true value. That isn't to say those subjectively created values won't more accurately predict the winner, it just means it's creating bias for something that, in actuality, is 1 in 30.

It's a weird debate to be having, I'll say that.

What you're talking about isn't Math.

Howard does not have a 1/30 chance of winning the this year. In fact, I'm viewed as the Howard critic, and I think he's got a 1/30 chance at winning this year, because I think the Wings are a slightly better than average team.

Every goalie doesn't have the same chance at winning the cup at the beginning of the year.
 
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Bench

3 is a good start
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How did I know you'd back SoupNazi on this.

What you're talking about isn't Math.

Howard does not have a 1/30 chance of winning the this year.

Every goalie doens't have the same chance at winning the cup at the beginning of the year.

Yes, I'm talking about math. And yes, they all have the same chance. The fact you think otherwise is a reflection of your bias, putting more emphasis on some teams than others.

However, do note I already said that such biases can predict results more accurately. I'm agreeing with you. But SoupNazi is still right, on the most base level, that the odds remain 1 in 30. Wait, I can agree with more than 1 person? I need to quickly shift my opinion to something more polarizing.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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Yes, I'm talking about math. And yes, they all have the same chance. The fact you think otherwise is a reflection of your bias, putting more emphasis on some teams than others.

However, do note I already said that such biases can predict results more accurately. I'm agreeing with you. But SoupNazi is still right, on the most base level, that the odds remain 1 in 30. Wait, I can agree with more than 1 person? I need to quickly shift my opinion to something more polarizing.

Statistics say it is wrong to put a bias on some teams to Win the Cup over others. Common sense says otherwise.
 
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RedWingsNow*

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Yes, I'm talking about math. And yes, they all have the same chance. The fact you think otherwise is a reflection of your bias, putting more emphasis on some teams than others.

Because the REALITY -- the TRUE REALITY -- is that all teams are not created equal.

Where are you coming from here.


But SoupNazi is still right, on the most base level, that the odds remain 1 in 30.

You couldn't be more wrong, at the most base level.
 

Bench

3 is a good start
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Statistics say it is wrong to put a bias on some teams over others to Win the Cup over others. Common sense says otherwise.

I agree. I don't get what all the fuss is about. I said that from the start. :help:
 

Henkka

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BinCookin

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Feb 15, 2012
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I would agree with RWN on that. We might turn into a very legitimate contender, but LA, Chicago and Boston are all going to be ahead in terms of Vegas lines.

Of course LA and Boston have dynamite goalies and Chicago has an average to below average starter.

Interesting the RWN wants to argue vegas odds to prove we dont have a 1/30 chance

when i argued vegas odds a few months ago showing that we have been contenders up until 2012. He said Vegas odds are pointless.

Just thought id point that out... id find the quote on another thread, but its not worth my time.
 

RedWingsNow*

Guest
Interesting the RWN wants to argue vegas odds to prove we dont have a 1/30 chance

when i argued vegas odds a few months ago showing that we have been contenders up until 2012. He said Vegas odds are pointless.

Just thought id point that out... id find the quote on another thread, but its not worth my time.

Wow. I don't get why people feel entitled to complete lie about people's comments.


It's not worth your time to be accurate about anything. But it's worth your time to jump into an argument without reading a damn thing and lie about people?


I'm not arguing about the Red Wings' odds to win the cup. I'm arguing about the ridiculous assertion that every goalie has a 1/30 chance to win the cup.

People are going through ridiculous lengths do die on that particular hill. Glad you could join them
 
Jul 30, 2005
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I mean, what is location, really
I think there's some messiness with using the word "chance."

There is a 1/30 possibility for each goalie to win the cup.

Each goalie is not equally likely to win the cup, though. The probability of each goalie winning is not the same across the board.
 
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